Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method

  • Original Research
  • Published:
Journal of Fusion Energy Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In the framework of the conceptual design and engineering design of the Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor, some preliminary investigation and estimation of the encountered risk factors in the integrated design process of blanket system were carried out. Sub-tasks of the entire project need to be decomposed before performing the integrated design of blanket system in order to perform a risk assessment for each task. To describe the key time of design process and predict the dates of tasks, a fuzzy PERT method is presented. The integrated design of blanket system project is divided into several tasks, which includes the optimistic time, pessimistic time and the most likely time of each task based on the experience of designer and analyst. The earliest start/finish time, latest start/finish time and slack time of each task is calculated by using the fuzzy PERT method. As a result, the critical path is found for scheduling assessment. The completing probability of the project under different requirements during the design period is calculated, which can provide valuable reference for the scheduling assessment of the integrated design of blanket system project.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Y.T. Song, S.T. Wu, J.G. Li et al., Concept design of CFETR tokamak machine. IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 42(3), 503–509 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  2. Y.X. Wan, J.G. Li, Y. Liu et al., Overview of the present progress and activities on the CFETR. Nucl. Fusion 57(10), 102009 (2017)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. R.A. Bahamid, S.I. Doh, A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries. IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng. 271(1), 012042 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. P. Gardoni, Risk and Reliability Analysis//Risk and Reliability Analysis: Theory and Applications (Springer, Cham, 2017), pp. 3–24

    Google Scholar 

  5. S. Haugen, J.E. Vinnem, Perspectives on risk and the unforeseen. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 137, 1–5 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. F. Cismondi, P. Agostinetti, G. Aiello et al., Progress in EU-DEMO in-vessel components integration. Fusion Eng. Des. 124, 562–566 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. F. Habibi, O. Birgani, H. Koppelaar et al., Using fuzzy logic to improve the project time and cost estimation based on project evaluation and review technique (PERT). J. Proj. Manag. 3(4), 183–196 (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  8. A. NietoMorote, F. Ruzvila, A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 29(2), 220–231 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. A. Piros, G. Veres, Fuzzy based method for project planning of the infrastructure design for the diagnostic in ITER. Fusion Eng. Des. 88, 1183–1186 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. M. Mazlum, A.F. Güneri, CPM, PERT and project management with fuzzy logic technique and implementation on a business. Proc. Soc. Behav. Sci. 210, 348–357 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. D. Trietsch, K.R. Baker, PERT 21: fitting PERT/CPM for use in the 21st century. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 30(4), 490–502 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. V. Bhosale, S.S. Shastri, M.A. Khandare, A review of genetic algorithm used for optimizing scheduling of resource constraint construction projects. Int. Res. J. Eng. Technol. 4(5), 2869–2872 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  13. J.G. Li, Y.X. Wan, Present state of Chinese magnetic fusion development and future plans. J. Fusion Energ. 38(1), 113–124 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. M.Z. Lei, Y.T. Song, M.Y. Ye, Thermal hydraulic analysis of the HECLIC blanket breeder unit for CFETR. Int. J. Energy Res. 39(3), 370–376 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. S.L. Xu, M.Z. Lei, S.M. Liu et al., Neutronic investigation and activation calculation for CFETR HCCB blankets. Plasma Sci. Technol 19(12), 125603 (2017)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. S.L. Xu, M.Z. Lei, Y.T. Song et al., Analysis and optimization of the manifolds of the HCCB blanket for CFETR. J. Nucl. Sci. Technol. 55(9), 979–984 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. S.L. Liu, Y. Pu, X.M. Cheng et al., Conceptual design of a water cooled breeder blanket for CFETR. Fusion Eng. Des. 89(7), 1380–1385 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Talent introduction and PhD start-up fund of Anhui Jianzhu University (No. 2018QD58), the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province, China (No. 1508085ME84), the Natural Science Research Project of Colleges and Universities in Anhui Province, China (No. KJ2019A0789) and the National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2017YFE0300503).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei, 230601, China

    Ruonan Zhang & Yinfeng Zhu

  2. Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, 230031, China

    Shuling Xu

Authors
  1. Ruonan Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yinfeng Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Shuling Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ruonan Zhang.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhang, R., Zhu, Y. & Xu, S. Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method. J Fusion Energ 39, 156–162 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10894-020-00246-5

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10894-020-00246-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation