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Spatial Modeling of the Range and Long-Term Climatogenic Dynamics of Ambrosia L. Species in the Caucasus

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Abstract

The main limiting factors for living of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. in the Caucasus are the incoming solar energy flux in January (5250–5950 kJ m–2 day–1) and slope (0°–17.5°). The limiting factors for A. trifida L. are wind speed in February (2–2.4 m/s) and the incoming solar energy flux in December (4400–4800 kJ m–2 day–1). In accordance with the predicted trends of climate change by 2050, it is possible to expect the expansion of the total area of potentially suitable for the species habitats by a factor of 1.95 (A. artemisiifolia) and 9.78 (A. trifida) (20 295.29 and 34817.82 km2). The area of optimal habitats may increase by 2.48 and 11.78 times, respectively (9932.73 and 18 914.11 km2), including the mountainous territoties.

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Funding

The studies were carried out as part of state assignment no. 075-00347-19-00 on the topic “Patterns of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Meadow and Forest Ecosystems in Mountainous Areas (Russian Western and Central Caucasus).”

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tembotov Institute of Ecology of Mountain Territories, Russian Academy of Sciences, 360051, Nalchik, Russia

    R. H. Pshegusov & V. A. Chadaeva

  2. North Ossetian State Nature Reserve, 363245, Alagir, Russia

    A. L. Komzha

Authors
  1. R. H. Pshegusov
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  2. V. A. Chadaeva
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  3. A. L. Komzha
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to R. H. Pshegusov, V. A. Chadaeva or A. L. Komzha.

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COMPLIANCE WITH ETHICAL STANDARDS

The article does not contain any research involving animals in experiments performed by any of the authors.

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APPENDIX

APPENDIX

GPS coordinates of the habitats of A. artemisiifolia used in the analysis:

43°76′87″ N,

43°36′57″ E;

43°76′04″ N,

43°37′05″ E;

43°66′65″ N,

43°41′02″ E;

43°78′82″ N,

43°15′81″ E;

43°76′79″ N,

43°28′24″ E;

43°73′56″ N,

42°96′68″ E;

43°85′59″ N,

43°13′81″ E;

43°81′46″ N,

43°12′03″ E;

43°45′82″ N,

42°99′79″ E;

43°46′18″ N,

42°99′16″ E;

43°22′90″ N,

42°65′56″ E;

43°22′99″ N,

42°65′27″ E;

43°25′55″ N,

42°63′96″ E;

43°25′88″ N,

42°64′19″ E;

43°25′66″ N,

42°51′54″ E;

43°63′82″ N,

43°54′95″ E;

43°65′14″ N,

43°52′00″ E;

43°22′72″ N,

43°55′97″ E;

43°78′26″ N,

42°96′24″ E;

43°39′77″ N,

42°92′22″ E;

43°10′95″ N,

43°14′73″ E;

43°66′42″ N,

44°01′83″ E;

43°82′76″ N,

43°80′26″ E;

43°48′06″ N,

44°10′01″ E;

43°57′39″ N,

43°74′55″ E;

43°35′85″ N,

43°93′10″ E;

44°17′31″ N,

40°10′42″ E;

43°39′39″ N,

39°39′26″ E;

43°33′31″ N,

39°49′20″ E;

43°38′42″ N,

39°44′12″ E;

45°12′44″ N,

39°40′52″ E;

44°49′06″ N,

38°23′07″ E;

44°36′37″ N,

40°06′13″ E;

45°00′04″ N,

37°13′07″ E;

43°05′11″ N,

40°48′09″ E;

44°17′31″ N,

40°10′43″ E;

44°53′45″ N,

37°57′50″ E;

42°58′30″ N,

41°04′42″ E;

43°01′32″ N,

40°57′38″ E;

44°09′93″ N,

43°00′72″ E;

44°76′57″ N,

42°00′22″ E;

42°70′60″ N,

47°62′923″ E;

42°92′97″ N,

47°45′05″ E;

43°01′60″ N,

47°24′72″ E;

44°08′86″ N,

40°01′63″ E;

43°99′42″ N,

40°13′63″ E;

43°88′43″ N,

40°71′74″ E;

43°93′55″ N,

40°68′46″ E;

43°17′70″ N,

45°23′28″ E;

43°24′43″ N,

45°30′85″ E;

43°17′39″ N,

46°03′23″ E;

43°08′54″ N,

45°89′06″ E;

43°25′95″ N,

44°97′713″ E;

43°29′045″ N,

46°67′42″ E;

42°98′74″ N,

47°44′26″ E;

44°23′97″ N,

42°02′52″ E;

43°29′24″ N,

41°62′95″ E;

43°44′26″ N,

41°74′64″ E;

43°46′17″ N,

44°39′13″ E;

43°20′00″ N,

44°24′44″ E;

43°19′040″ N,

44°12′45″ E;

43°16′01″ N,

44°16′12″ E;

43°08′05″ N,

44°25′20″ E;

43°12′56″ N,

44°23′44″ E;

43°13′11″ N,

44°20′51″ E;

43°07′35″ N,

44°27′36″ E;

43°09′13″ N,

44°23′56″ E;

43°09′40″ N,

44°24′24″ E;

43°12′06 ″ N,

44°23′40″ E;

43°07′09″ N,

44°30′58″ E;

43°09′28″ N,

44°21′11″ E;

43°04′00″ N,

44°27′28″ E;

43°04′26″ N,

44°28′03″ E;

42°59′55″ N,

44°23′08″ E;

42°53′47″ N,

43°42′13″ E;

43°00′30″ N,

43°47′55″ E;

42°47′43″ N,

44°00′25″ E;

42°49′32″ N,

44°12′35″ E;

42°47′34″ N,

43°55′22′ E;

42°49′07″ N,

44°15′20″ E;

42°49′16″ N,

44°14′26″ E;

42°55′26″ N,

44°28′03″ E;

42°50′26″ N,

44°30′43″ E;

42°47′28″ N,

44°37′56″ E;

43°01′59″ N,

44°45′25″ E

    

GPS coordinates of the habitats of A. trifida used in the analysis:

43°27′31″ N,

44°01′89″ E;

43°25′84″ N,

44°01′11″ E;

44°09′92″ N,

43°00′77″ E;

44°63′65″ N,

40°08′38″ E;

44°62′19″ N,

40°16′32″ E;

43°17′012″ N,

40°33′78″ E;

43°14′67″ N,

45°75′75″ E;

43°14′73″ N,

45°24′94″ E;

43°22′29″ N,

45°06′38″ E;

43°17′31″ N,

46°03′27″ E;

43°08′54″ N,

45°89′07″ E;

43°47′15″ N,

44°39′02″ E;

43°11′19″ N,

44°01′18″ E;

43°16′05″ N,

44°16′06″ E;

43°16′05″ N,

44°17′22″ E;

43°17′17″ N,

44°29′00″ E;

43°13′10″ N,

44°23′20″ E;

43°14′10″ N,

44°20′17″ E;

43°13′10″ N,

44°20′50″ E;

43°12′14″ N,

44°23′30″ E;

43°11′45″ N,

44°32′42″ E;

43°03′20″ N,

44°47′36″ E;

43°09′28″ N,

44°21′11″ E;

43°00′46″ N,

44°38′46″ E;

43°03′20″ N,

44°38′37″ E;

43°04′05″ N,

44°37′07″ E;

43°04′33″ N,

44°39′42″ E;

43°02′21″ N,

44°41′59″ E;

43°00′58″ N,

44°13′28″ E;

43°05′25″ N,

44°20′35″ E;

43°10′44″ N,

44°17′39″ E;

42°48′59″ N,

44°15′00″ E

  

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Pshegusov, R.H., Chadaeva, V.A. & Komzha, A.L. Spatial Modeling of the Range and Long-Term Climatogenic Dynamics of Ambrosia L. Species in the Caucasus. Russ J Biol Invasions 11, 74–84 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2075111720010105

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