Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Improving the prediction of western North Pacific summer precipitation using a Bayesian dynamic linear model

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Seasonal prediction of western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall (WNPSMR) is in great demand but remains challenging, because the relationships between the Asian monsoon system and precursors are nonstationary and exhibit significant decadal changes. The present study aims to (1) examine decadal variations of the relationships between the WNPSMR and predictors used in previous studies and (2) establish a new prediction model using a Bayesian dynamical linear model (DLM), which is capable of capturing the time-evolving relationships between the predictand and predictors whereas the conventional static linear model cannot. Two predictors were selected previously to predict the WNPSMR. One is the sea level pressure tendency anomalies over the tropical eastern Pacific from late spring to early summer, which represents remote forcing related to ENSO and has a stable effect on WNPSMR throughout the analysis period. The other is the sea surface temperature anomaly difference between the northern Indian Ocean (IO) and the WNP during spring through early summer (called IOWPSST), which denotes local air–sea interaction that affects the WNP subtropical high. Results show that the IOWPSST has strong influence on WNPSMR during 1979–2003 (period 1), while from 2004 to 2017 (period 2) its connection to WNPSMR evidently weakens. This nonstationary relationship is due to the non-persistence of the enhanced WNP subtropical high during period 2, which is associated with the positive-to-negative phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation since ~ 2000. A new prediction model was established using the two predictors with Bayesian DLM. The cross-validation method and a 9-years independent forward-rolling forecast is applied to test the hindcast and actual forecast ability. Results show that the Bayesian DLM has higher hindcast/forecast skill and lower mean square error compared with static linear model, suggesting that the DLM has advantage in predicting WNPSMR and is a promising method for seasonal prediction.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adler RF, Huffman GF, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The version 2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J Hydrometeorol 4:1147–1167

    Google Scholar 

  • Adler R, Sapiano M, Huffman G, Bolvin D, Gu G, Wang J, Nelkin E, Xie P, Chiu L, Ferraro R, Schneider U, Becker A (2016) The new version 2.3 of the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly analysis product. University of Maryland, pp 1072–1084

  • Cai W, Sullivan A, Cowan T (2009) How rare are the 2006–2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole events? An IPCC AR4 climate model perspective. Geophys Res Lett 36(8):L08702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037982

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calder C, Lavine M, Müller P, Clark JS (2003) Incorporating multiple sources of stochasticity into dynamic population models. Ecology 84:1395–1402

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Wu R, Chen W (2014) Impacts of autumn Arctic sea ice concentration changes on the East Asian winter monsoon variability. J Clim 27:5433–5450

    Google Scholar 

  • Chou C, Tu JY, Yu JY (2003) Interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon: differences between ENSO and non-ENSO years. J Clim 16:2275–2287

    Google Scholar 

  • Chowdary JS, Xie S-P, Luo J-J, Hafner J, Behera S, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2011) Predictability of Northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 36:607–621

    Google Scholar 

  • Chu PS, Zhao X (2004) Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: the central North Pacific case. J Clim 17:4893–4901

    Google Scholar 

  • Chu PS, Zhao X (2007) A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J Clim 20:4002–4013

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai A (2013) The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923–2010. Clim Dyn 41:633–646

    Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 137(656):553–597

    Google Scholar 

  • Dong B, Dai A (2015) The influence of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation on temperature and precipitation over the globe. Clim Dyn 45:2667–2681

    Google Scholar 

  • Du Y, Xie S-P, Huang G, Hu K (2009) Role of air–sea interaction in the long persistence of El Niño–induced north Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 22:2023–2038

    Google Scholar 

  • Han W et al (2014) Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades. Clim Dyn 43:1357–1379

    Google Scholar 

  • Han W, Meehl GA, Hu A, Zheng J, Kenigson J, Vialard J, Rajagopalan B, Yanto M (2017) Decadal variability of the Indian and Pacific Walker cells since the 1960s: Do they covary on decadal time scales? J Clim 30:8447–8468

    Google Scholar 

  • Han W, Stammer D, Meehl G, Hu A, Sienz F, Zhang L (2018) Multi-decadal trend and decadal variability of the regional sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: roles of climate modes and external forcing. Climate 6:51

    Google Scholar 

  • Harr PA, Wu CC (2011) Tropical cyclone characteristics and monsoon circulations. In: Chang CP (ed) The global monsoon system: research and forecast, 2nd edn. World Scientific Publishing, Singapore, pp 357–372

    Google Scholar 

  • He Z, Wu R (2018) Change in coherence of interannual variability of summer rainfall over the western Pacific around the early 2000s: role of Indo-Pacific Ocean forcing. J Clim 31:3525–3538

    Google Scholar 

  • He ZQ, Wang WQ, Wu R, Kang IS, He C, Li XZ, Xu K, Chen S (2020) Change in coherence of summer rainfall variability over the western Pacific around the early 2000s: ENSO influence. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0150.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang RH, Sun FY (1992) Impact of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70:243–256

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang B, Thorne PW, Banzon VF, Boyer T, Chepurin G, Lawrimore JH, Menne MJ, Smith TM, Vose RS, Zhang HM (2017) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ersstv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J Clim 30(20):8179–8205

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Wang B, Li X, Wang H (2018) Changes in the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 51:443–455

    Google Scholar 

  • Kawamura R, Murakami T, Wang B (1996) Tropical and mid-latitude 45-day perturbations over the western Pacific during the northern summer. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74:867–890

    Google Scholar 

  • Kenigson JS, Han W, Rajagopalan B, Yanto M, Jasinski M (2018) Decadal shift of NAO-linked interannual sea level variability along the US Northeast Coast. J Clim 31:4981–4989

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnaswamy J, Lavine M, Richter DD, Korfmacher K (2000) Dynamic modeling of long-term sedimentation in the Yadkin River basin. Adv Water Resour 23:881–892

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnaswamy J, Vaidyanathan S, Rajagopalan B, Bonell M, Sankaran M, Bhalla RS, Badiger S (2015) Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events. Clim Dyn 45(1–2):175–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Kim KM (2006) Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall, and circulation. Geophys Res Lett 332:L21810

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Weng H (2002) Recurrent teleconnection patterns linking summertime precipitation variability over East Asia and North America. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 80:1309–1324

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Lee JY, Kim KM, Kang IS (2004) The North Pacific as a regulator of summertime climate over Eurasia and North America. J Clim 17:819–833

    Google Scholar 

  • Li T, Wang B (2005) A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: synoptic-to-interannual variabilities. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 16:285–314

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu ZY (2012) Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: a historical perspective. J Clim 25:1963–1995

    Google Scholar 

  • Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J Clim Appl Meteor 26(11):1589–1600

    Google Scholar 

  • Molinari J, Vollaro D (2013) What percentage of western North Pacific tropical cyclones form within the monsoon trough? Mon Weather Rev 141:499–505

    Google Scholar 

  • Murakami T, Matsumoto J (1994) Summer monsoon over the Asian continent and western North Pacific. J Meteor Soc Jpn 72:719–745

    Google Scholar 

  • Nitta T (1987) Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impacts on the Northern hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteor Soc Jpn 65:373–390

    Google Scholar 

  • Petris G, Petrone S, Campagnoli P (2009) Dynamic linear models with R. Springer, New York, pp 31–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Power SB, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999) Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn 15:319–324

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanaka M (1997) Interannual and interdecadal variations of the western North Pacific monsoon and Baiu rainfall and their relationship to the ENSO cycles. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 75:1109–1123

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao S, Chen L (1987) A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. In: Chang CP, Krisnamurti TN (eds) Monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 60–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Lukas R (1999) Roles of the western North Pacific wind variation in thermocline adjustment and ENSO phase transition. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 77:1–16

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asia teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Lau KM (2001) Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the Indian and the western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons. J Clim 14(20):4073–4090

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Liu J, Yang J, Zhou T, Wu Z (2009) Distinct principal modes of early and late summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia. J Clim 22:3864–3875

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Xiang B, Lee JY (2013) Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. PNAS 10:2718–2722

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Lee JY, Xiang BQ (2015a) Asian summer monsoon rainfall predictability: a predictable mode analysis. Clim Dyn 44:61–74

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Xiang B, Li J, Webster PJ, Rajeevan MN, Liu J, Ha K-J (2015b) Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming. Nat Commun 6:7154

    Google Scholar 

  • West M, Harrison J (1997) Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models. Springer-Verlag, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • West M, Harrison PJ, Migon HS (1985) Dynamic generalized linear models and Bayesian forecasting. J Am Statist Assoc 80:73–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Wen Z, Huang R, Wu R (2012) Possible linkage between the monsoon trough variability and the tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 140:140–150

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Huang G, Du Z, Hu K (2014) Cross-season relation of the South China Sea precipitation variability between winter and summer. Clim Dyn 43:193–207

    Google Scholar 

  • Xiang B, Wang B, Yu W, Xu S (2013) How can anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high intensify in late summer? Geophys Res Lett 40:2349–2354

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Yan Du, Huang G, Zheng X-T, Tokinaga H, Kaiming Hu, Liu Q (1970s) Decadal shift in El Nino influences on Indo-western Pacific and East Asian climate in the 1970s. J Clim 23:3352–3368

    Google Scholar 

  • Xing W, Huang F (2019) Improvements in long-lead prediction of early-summer subtropical frontal rainfall based on Arctic sea ice. J Ocean Univ China 18:542–552

    Google Scholar 

  • Xing W, Wang B, Yim SY (2016a) Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part I: southeast Asia. Clim Dyn 47:1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Xing W, Wang B, Yim SY (2016b) Long-lead seasonal prediction of china summer rainfall using an EOF–PLS regression-based methodology. J Clim 29:1783–1796

    Google Scholar 

  • Xing W, Wang B, Yim SY, Ha KJ (2017) Predictable patterns of the May–June rainfall anomaly over East Asia. J Geophys Res Atmos 122:2203–2217

    Google Scholar 

  • Yanto RB, Zagona E (2016) Space–time variability of Indonesian rainfall at inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. Clim Dyn 47:2975–2989

    Google Scholar 

  • Yim SY, Wang B, Xing W (2014) Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model. Clim Dyn 43:1883–1891

    Google Scholar 

  • Yim SY, Wang B, Xing W (2016) Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part II: extratropical East Asia. Clim Dyn 47:15–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L (2016) The roles of external forcing and natural variability in global warming hiatuses. Clim Dyn 47:3157–3169

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J Clim 10:1004–1020

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Han W, Sienz F (2018) Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades. J Clim 31:2377–2388

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang H, Chu PS, He L, Unger D (2019) Improving the CPC’s ENSO forecasts using Bayesian model averaging. Clim Dyn 53:3373–3385

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers and editor for their constructive comments on the original manuscript. The data used in this paper is available on the following website: Atmospheric data from https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/, SST from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html, and precipitation from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

    Wen Xing, Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang

Authors
  1. Wen Xing
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Weiqing Han
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Lei Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wen Xing.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 16 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Xing, W., Han, W. & Zhang, L. Improving the prediction of western North Pacific summer precipitation using a Bayesian dynamic linear model. Clim Dyn 55, 831–842 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05297-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05297-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation