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Spatial modeling of Dengue prevalence and kriging prediction of Dengue outbreak in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Pakistan) using presence only data

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Abstract

During the span of August–October, 2017 a major outbreak of Dengue fever happened in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Cases were reported from all the major cities and rural areas, but Peshawar was more severely hit with more than half of the total cases belonging to central Peshawar city. The epidemic patterns reveal that dengue fever cases were mostly reported for plain areas and also low altitude mountainous regions. We employed the principle of maximum entropy to establish the underlying distribution of dengue presences and background data. A geostatistical analysis was conducted by modelling the spatial structure of the dengue fever risk and estimating the prediction maps with corresponding uncertainty taking into account some of the most significant covariates. The prediction maps were created using binomial kriging with a binary logistic drift. The analysis was carried out for the whole province as well as subregions to have a closer look of the spatial distribution at local level. Our results show that our methodology performed well. Vector distribution, population density, and distance to roads were found to significantly affecting the spatial distribution of risk and gives very informative pattern.

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Acknowledgements

Asad Ali is thankful to Prof Dr. Mukhtiar Ali Medical Director of Mardan Medical Complex KP, and Dr Tariq Hayat Taj Dengue Control Program Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (2016-17) for providing data on dengue cases.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Space Science, Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Hammad Ahmad, Asad Ali, Saleem Ullah & Muhammad Shakir

  2. Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Asad Ali

  3. School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia

    Syeda Hira Fatima

  4. Department of Zoology, University of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Farrah Zaidi, Muhammad Khisroon & Syed Basit Rasheed

  5. Department of Geography, University of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Ihsan Ullah

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  1. Hammad Ahmad
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Ahmad, H., Ali, A., Fatima, S.H. et al. Spatial modeling of Dengue prevalence and kriging prediction of Dengue outbreak in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Pakistan) using presence only data. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 34, 1023–1036 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01818-9

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