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Scenario-based ecological security patterns to indicate landscape sustainability: a case study on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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Abstract

Context

When setting the goal of landscape sustainability in landscape management, a key theoretical question should be which landscape patterns are more sustainable, whereas there were few studies that further compared optimization scenarios.

Objectives

This article sought to identify the future scenario of landscape services and the most sustainable landscape in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Methods

This study adopts the parameter of ecological security pattern (ESP) combining with landscape connectivity and landscape service as indicators to assess the sustainability of landscape patterns in 2010, 2020 and 2030 with different land use scenarios in Representative Concentration Pathways.

Results

The results showed that (1) the area with high quality of the three landscape services was mainly concentrated in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where a large area of forest was distributed, and the low quality area was located in the northwest, which was bare land in 2010; (2) the landscape services showed a declining trend under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios from 2020 to 2030, whereas the values remained stable under the RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios; and (3) there were 9 ecological sources and 16–17 corridors within the ESP scenarios with quantitative parameters to indicate the landscape sustainability of the scenarios.

Conclusions

The approach of this study showed the possibility of using ESP scenarios to quantitatively indicate the sustainability of landscape patterns and provide guidance for future landscape management.

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Acknowledgements

This research was financially supported by the Second Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0405), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41861134038), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Feifei Fan & Yanxu Liu

  2. College of Resource, Environmental and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing, 100048, China

    Jixing Chen

  3. Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Jianquan Dong

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  1. Feifei Fan
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Correspondence to Yanxu Liu.

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Fan, F., Liu, Y., Chen, J. et al. Scenario-based ecological security patterns to indicate landscape sustainability: a case study on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Landscape Ecol 36, 2175–2188 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01044-2

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