Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Active-Break Transitions of Monsoons Over India as Predicted by Coupled Model Ensembles

  • Published:
Pure and Applied Geophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The active-break cycle of monsoons is the most important phenomenon of the Indian summer monsoon, and its prediction in real time will help to review the ongoing monsoon conditions for providing outlooks to farmers and disaster managers. The monsoon seasons of 2017 and 2018 during July–August witnessed many active-break-active transitions, with long dry spells. The recently implemented Climate Forecast System version 2 coupled model-based ensemble prediction system at the India Meteorological Department was used to observe the performance of a real-time extended-range forecast (ERF) of active-break-active cycles of the monsoon at different spatial scales during 2017 and 2018. The results indicated that the operational ERF has good fidelity in predicting the active-break-active transitions of the monsoon during 2017 and 2018 based on large-scale indices including the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation and low-level circulation. Quantitatively, the forecast of all India and central India rainfall during the active, break and transition phases of the monsoon are very well captured with a lead time of 2–3 weeks. In particular, the long dry spell during first 3 weeks of August and the active last week of August 2017 associated with very heavy rainfall over western coastal states of India were very well captured, whereas the active phase over the southern peninsula during 10–16 August 2018 was slightly underestimated. At smaller spatial scales, the ERFs for 36 meteorological (met)-subdivisions of India for 2–3 weeks could provide useful guidance to farmers during different monsoon phases. Thus, the skilful real-time ERF of the monsoon is very useful to user communities.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17
Fig. 18
Fig. 19
Fig. 20
Fig. 21

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abhilash, S., Mandal, R., Dey, R., Phani, A., Joseph, R., Chattopadhyay, S., et al. (2018). Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season. Climate Dynamics, 51, 3435–3446.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abhilash, S., Sahai, A. K., Pattnaik, S., et al. (2014a). Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 98–113. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3668.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abhilash, S., Sahai, A. K., Pattnaik, S., Goswami, B. N., & Kumar, A. (2014b). Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 98–113. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3668.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borah, N., Abhilash, S., Joseph, S., Chattopadhyay, R., Sharmila, S., & Sahai, A. K. (2013). Development of extended range prediction system using CFSv2 and its verification. IITM Res Rep, 20, 130.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, T. C., & Yen, M. C. (1994). Interannual variation of the Indian monsoon simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model: Effect of the tropical Pacific SST. Journal of Climate, 7, 1403–1415.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil, S., & Asha, G. (1992). Intraseasonal variation of the summer monsoon. I: Observational aspects. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 70, 517–527.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami, B. N., & Xavier, P. K. (2003). Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017810.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Govardhan, D., Vadlamudi, B. R., & Karumuri, A. (2017). Understanding the revival of the Indian summer monsoon after breaks. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74, 5. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0325.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoyos, C. D., & Webster, P. J. (2007). The role of intra-seasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation. Journal of Climate, 20, 4402–4424.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • India Meteorological Department (IMD). (2018). A report on southwest monsoon 2017. In O. P. Sreejith, D. S. Pai, & M. Mohapatra (eds). IMD Met. Monograph. "ESSO/IMD/Synoptic Met./01(2018)/22", pp. 1–302.

  • Joseph, S., Sahai, A. K., Sharmila, S., Abhilash, S., Borah, N., Chattopadhyay, R., et al. (2014). North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: Diagnostics and extended range prediction. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5 (1-17).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti, T. N., & Subrahmanyam, D. (1982). The 30–50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 39, 2088–2095.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan, R., Sundaram, S., Swapna, P., Kumar, K., Ayantika, D. C., & Mujumdar, M. (2010). Crucial role of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events. Climate Dynamics, 37, 1–17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan, R., Zhang, C., & Sugi, M. (2000). Dynamics of breaks in the Indian summer monsoons. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 57, 1354–1372.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence, D. M., & Webster, P. J. (2002). The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: Relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 59, 1593–1606.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden, R., & Julian, P. (1971). Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 28, 702–708.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden, R., & Julian, P. (1994). Observations of the 40–50 day tropical oscillation: A review. Monthly Weather Review, 112, 814–837.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pai, D. S., Bhate, J., Sreejith, O. P., & Hatwar, H. R. (2011). Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Climate Dynamics, 36, 41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0634-4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer, T. N., Brankowic, C., Viterbo, P., & Miller, M. J. (1992). Modelling interannual variations of summer monsoons. Journal of Climate, 5, 399–417.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R. (2003). The northward moving low frequency mode: A case study of 2001 monsoon season. MAUSAM, 54, 937–940.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R. (2014). Meteorological subdivisional-level extended range forecast over India during southwest monsoon 2012. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0308-6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R. (2015). Operational extended range forecast activity in IMD and its applications in different sectors. Bulletins of Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) Vayu Mandal, 40, 44–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R., & Arun, K. (2010). Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system. Climate Dynamics, 34, 557–572.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R., & Ashok, K. D. (2015). Prospect of application of extended range forecast in water resource management: A case study over the Mahanadi River basin. Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1610-4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R., & Kumar, A. (2014). Comparison of intra-seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon between two versions of NCEP coupled models. Theoretical Applied Climatology, 118, 331–345. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1071-1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R., Pai, D. S., & Mukhopadhyay, B. (2015). Rapid northward progress of monsoon over India and associated heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand: A diagnostic study and real time extended range forecast. MAUSAM, 66(3), 551–568.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D. R., Raju, M., Avijit D., Phani Muralikrishna R., Susmitha, J., Rajib, C., Shibin, B., & Sahai, A. K. (2017). Performance of real time extended range forecast during southwest monsoon 2016. In P. C. S. Rao, D. S. Pai, & M. Mohapatra (EDS) IMD Met. Monograph. "ESSO/IMD/Synoptic Met./01(2017)/21", pp. 289–312.

  • Pattanaik, D. R., Rathore, L. S., & Arun, K. (2013). Observed and forecasted intraseasonal activity of southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 2010, 2011 and 2012. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 170, 2305–2328.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramamurthy, K. (1969). Monsoon of India: Some aspects of ‘break’ in the Indian south west monsoon during July and August, in Forecasting Manual, Part IV. 18.3. New Delhi: India Meteorological Department.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao, Y. P. (1976). Southwest monsoon. Met. Monograph, India Meteorological Department, 367.

  • Saha, S., Nadiga, S., Thiaw, C., Wang, J., Wang, W., Zhang, Q., et al. (2006). The NCEP climate forecast system. Journal of Climate, 19, 3483–3517.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha, S., Shrinivas, M., Xingren, W., Jiande, W., Sudhir, N., Patrick, T., et al. (2014). The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. Journal of Climate, 27, 2185–2208. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sahai, A. K., Chattopadhyay, R., Joseph, S., Mandal, R., Dey, A., Abhilash, S., et al. (2015). Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble-based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2. Current Science, 109(10), 1802–1813.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sahai, A. K., Sharmila, S., Abhilash, S., Chattopadhyay, R., Borah, N., Krishna, R. P. M., et al. (2013). Simulation and extended range prediction of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework. Current Science, 104, 1394–1408.

    Google Scholar 

  • Soman, M. K., & Slingo, J. (1997). Sensitivity of Asian summer monsoon to aspects of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 123, 309–336.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber, K. R., & Palmer, T. N. (1996). Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project. Journal of Climate, 9, 2727–2750.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suhas, E., Neena, J. M., & Goswami, B. N. (2013). An Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) index for real time monitoring and forecast verification. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2605–2616. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1462-5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyagi, A., & Pattanaik, D. R. (2012). Real time extended range forecast activities in IMD—Performance Assessments and Future Prospects (2012). IMD Met. Monograph No. ERF 01/2012, pp. 1–132.

  • Vitart, F., Buizza, R., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bidlot, J.-R., Bonet, A., et al. (2008). The new VAREPS-monthly forecasting system: A first step towards seamless prediction. Quarterly Journal Royal Meteorological Society, 134, 1789–1799.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, W., Chen, M., & Kumar, A. (2009). Impacts of ocean surface on the northward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP climate forecast system. Journal of Climate, 22, 6561–6576.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster, P. J., & Hoyos, C. D. (2004). Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15–30 day time scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85, 1745–1765.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wheeler, M., & Hendon, H. (2004). An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 1917–1932.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The real-time extended-range forecast capability of IMD is being strengthened through the collaborative efforts of the MoES institutions viz., the IITM, NCMRWF, INCOIS and NCEP. The CFSv2/GFSbc customised at IITM was implemented in IMD for the operational run. The authors are thankful to Dr. M. Rajeevan, Secretary, MoES for making this possible. We also thank Dr. K. J. Ramesh, the previous Director General of Meteorology (DGM) and Dr. M. Mohapatra, the present DGM of IMD for their encouragement and for providing all facilities to carry out this work. Finally, thanks are also due to the anonymous reviewers for valuable comments and suggestions to improve the quality of the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India

    D. R. Pattanaik

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

    A. K. Sahai, R. Phani Muralikrishna, Raju Mandal & Avijit Dey

Authors
  1. D. R. Pattanaik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. K. Sahai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. Phani Muralikrishna
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Raju Mandal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Avijit Dey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to D. R. Pattanaik.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Pattanaik, D.R., Sahai, A.K., Muralikrishna, R.P. et al. Active-Break Transitions of Monsoons Over India as Predicted by Coupled Model Ensembles. Pure Appl. Geophys. 177, 4391–4422 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02503-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02503-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation