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Application of arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) expansion for global sensitivity analysis of mineral dissolution and precipitation modeling under geologic carbon storage conditions

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Abstract

Numerical modeling of geochemistry associated with geologic CO2 storage involves many conceptual and quantitative uncertainties. In this study, a time efficient arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) expansion approach was proposed to do global sensitivity analysis of mineral dissolution and precipitation modeling in geologic carbon storage scenarios. To demonstrate the workflow of the aPC approach, a numerical model to predict permeability evolution of a Lower Tuscaloosa sandstone core exposed to CO2 saturated brine was used. The modeled sandstone core permeability by the aPC approach was 2095.5 mD ± 504.5 mD after 180 days of CO2 exposure. The measured permeability of the core after 180 days of CO2 exposure was 1925.0 mD, which was within the uncertainty range. Keq (SiO2 (am)) was the most important modeling parameter that influenced permeability results, implying that SiO2 (am) is a key mineral that governs permeability evolution of sandstone in geologic carbon storage scenarios. The aPC approach can reduce 99% of simulation time needed to do global sensitivity analysis of a complicated geochemical model, compared with traditional Monte Carlo approach.

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the Thousand Talent Program for Outstanding Young Scientists (Y731101B01), the National Natural Science Foundation of China projects (41902258 and U1967208), and CAS-ITRI collaborative research funding (CAS-ITRI2019011). The authors would like to acknowledge Dr. Sergey Oladyshkin at the University of Stuttgart for allowing us to use the aPC analysis code, and Dr. Zan Wang at the NETL for her advice in improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei Province, China

    Liwei Zhang, Bin Wang, Yan Wang, Manguang Gan & Xiaochun Li

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Liwei Zhang, Bin Wang, Manguang Gan & Xiaochun Li

  3. Intera Swiss Branch, Hardstrasse 73, 5430, Wettingen, Switzerland

    Argha Namhata

  4. National Energy Technology Laboratory, US Department of Energy, 626 Cochrans Mill Road, Pittsburgh, PA, 15236, USA

    Robert Dilmore

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  1. Liwei Zhang
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Zhang, L., Namhata, A., Dilmore, R. et al. Application of arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) expansion for global sensitivity analysis of mineral dissolution and precipitation modeling under geologic carbon storage conditions. Comput Geosci 24, 1333–1346 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-020-09953-6

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