The imperative for an updated cirrhosis surgical risk score

Abstract

The burden of cirrhosis is increasing, as is the need for surgeries in patients with cirrhosis. These patients have increased surgical risk relative to non-cirrhotic patients. Unfortunately, currently available cirrhosis surgical risk prediction tools are non-specific, poorly calibrated, limited in scope, and/or outdated. The Mayo score is the only dedicated tool to provide discrete post-operative mortality predictions for patients with cirrhosis, however it has several limitations. First, its single-center nature does not reflect institution-specific practices that may impact surgical risk. Second, it pre-dates major surgical changes that have changed the landscape of patient selection and surgical risk. Third, it has been shown to overestimate risk in external validation. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the score does not account for differences in risk based on surgery type. The clinical consequences of inaccurate prediction and risk overestimation are significant, as patients with otherwise acceptable risk may be denied elective surgical procedures, thereby increasing their future need for higher-risk emergent procedures. Confident evaluation of the risks and benefits of surgery in this growing population requires an updated, generalizable, and accurate cirrhosis surgical risk calculator that incorporates the type of surgery under consideration.