Abstract
In this paper we examine the epochal changes in the frequency of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the pre-onset and onset phases of the monsoon. We consider three epochs; namely, the early (1955–74), middle (1975–94) and recent (1995–2014) epochs. It is found that the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) decreases throughout the three epochs. Over the Arabian Sea (ARB), however, there is a decrease in the early epoch, before then reaching a minimum in the middle epoch followed by an increase in the recent epoch, thus exhibiting epochal variability. Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters along with Genesis Potential Index (GPI) are examined to understand the frequency variation in cyclogenesis over the ARB and BOB. Over the ARB, thermodynamic factors such as mid-level moisture, surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, and dynamic parameters such as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, are favorable during the early and recent epochs but unfavorable during the middle epoch, and these results are found to be consistent with the observed epochal variability in the frequency of cyclogenesis. However, all these influential parameters are found to have decreased over the BOB during the entire 60-year period.
摘要
本文研究了季风建立前和开始阶段,北印度洋地区热带气旋频次在不同年代的变化特征。我们选择了三个时间段:早期(1955-74)、中期(1975-94)和近代(1995-2014)。研究发现,孟加拉湾地区的气旋数量在三个时期均呈减少的趋势。然而,在阿拉伯海地区,气旋数量表现出明显的年代变化:在早期减少,到中期减至最少,随后在近代有所增多。为了理解这两个地区气旋生成频次的变化,我们对潜在生成指数(GPI)对应的动力和热力学参数进行了诊断。在阿拉伯海地区,热力因子(中层湿度、地表潜热和感热通量)和动力因子(低层辐合和高层辐散),有利于早期和近代,但不利于中期的气旋生成。这与该地区在观测上不同时期气旋生成频次的变化相一致。相对而言,在孟加拉湾地区,所有这些因子在整个60年均对应减弱。
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Almanza, V. D., R. A. Anthes, S. Chen, S., Y. Kuo, C. Wang, W. S. Schreiner, and D. Hunt, 2012: Role of sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008). American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2012, Washington
Alory, G., and G. Meyers, 2009: Warming of the upper equatorial Indian Ocean and changes in the heat budget (1960–99). J. Climate, 22, 93–113, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2330.1.
Balaji, M., A. Chakraborty, and M. Mandal, 2018: Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014). International Journal of Climatology, 38, 2819–2837, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5463.
Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, K. M. Achutarao, P. J. Gleckler, B. D. Santer, J. M. Gregory, and W. M. Washington, 2005: Penetration of human-induced warming into the world’s oceans. Science, 309, 284–287, https://doi.org/10.1126/sccincee.1112418.
Bhat, G. S., 2006: Near-surface temperature inversion over the Arabian Sea due to natural aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024157.
Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 2. Climatology for 1982–1995. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 107, 4621, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000780.
Boyle, J. S., 1994: The northern wintertime divergence extrema at 200 hPa and MSLP cyclones as simulated in the AMIP integration by the ECMWF general circulation model. J. Climate, 7, 24–32, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0024:TNWDEA>2.0.CO;2.
Camargo, S., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus A, 59, 428–443, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00238.x.
Chakravorty, S., J. S. Chowdary, and C. Gnanaseelan, 2014: Epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of Tropical Indian Ocean warming associated with El Niño. Clim. Dyn., 42, 805–822, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1666-3.
Chan, J. C. L., 2007: Interannual variations of intense typhoon activity. Tellus A, 59, 455–460, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00241.x.
Chan, J. C. L., 2009: Thermodynamic control on the climate of intense tropical cyclones. Proceedings: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 495, 3011–3021.
Chen, S. M., W. B. Li, Y. Lu, and Z. P. Wen, 2014: Variations of latent heat flux during tropical cyclones over the South China Sea. Meteorological Applications, 21, 717–723, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1398.
Emanuel, K., 2003: Tropical cyclones. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 32, 75–104, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.31.100901.141259.
Emanuel, K. A., and D. S. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system. 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, American Meteorological Society.
Emanuel, K., S. Solomon, D. Folini, S. Davis, and C. Cagnazzo, 2013: Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate, 26(7), 2288–2301, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00242.1.
Erickson, S. L., and W. M. Gray, 1977: Comparison of developing vs. non-developing tropical disturbances. No. CSU-ATSP-274. Colorado State Univ. Fort. Collins Dept. of Atmospheric Science.
Evan, A. T., and S. J. Camargo, 2011: A climatology of Arabian sea cyclonic storms. J. Climate, 24, 140–158, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3611.1.
Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669–700, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096<0669:GVO-TOO>2.0.CO;2.
Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure, and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 155–218.
Grodsky, S. A., A. Bentamy, J. A. Carton, and R. T. Carton, 2009: Intraseasonal latent heat flux based on satellite observations. J. Climate, 22, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2901.1.
Hill, K. A., and G. M. Lackmann, 2011: The impact of future climate change on TC intensity and structure: A downscaling approach. J. Climate, 24(17), 4644–4661, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3761.1.
Jangir, B., D. Swain, and T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar, 2016: Relation between tropical cyclone heat potential and cyclone intensity in the North Indian Ocean. Proc. SPIE 9882, Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Interactions VI, New Delhi, India, SPIE, 988228, https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2228033
Jiang, X. N., M. Zhao, and D. E. Waliser, 2012: Modulation of tropical cyclones over the Eastern Pacific by the intraseasonal variability simulated in an AGCM. J. Climate, 25, 6524–6538, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00531.1.
Jiang, X. N., B. Q. Xiang, M. Zhao, T. Li, S. J. Lin, Z. Wang, and J. H. Chen, 2018: Intraseasonal tropical cyclogenesis prediction in a global coupled model system. J. Climate, 31(15), 6209–6227, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0454.1.
Kieu, C., and D. J. Zhang, 2018: The control of environmental stratification on the hurricane maximum potential intensity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6272–6280, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078070.
Kikuchi, K., and B. Wang, 2010: Formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean associated with two types of tropical intraseasonal oscillation modes. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 88, 475–496, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2010-313.
Krishnamohan, K. S., K. Mohanakumar, and P. V. Joseph, 2012: The influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation in the genesis of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 109, 271–282, https://doi.org/10.1007/s07004-011-0582-x.
Levitus, S., J. Antonov, and T. Boyer, 2005: Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02604, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021592.
Li, G., B. H. Ren, C. Y. Yang, and J. Q. Zheng, 2011: Revisiting the trend of the tropical and subtropical Pacific surface latent heat flux during 1977–2006. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 116, D10115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015444.
Lin, I. I., and J. C. Chan, 2015: Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications. Nature Communications, 6, 7182, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8182.
Liu, J. P., and J. A. Curry, 2006: Variability of the tropical and subtropical ocean surface latent heat flux during 1989–2000. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024809.
Ma, Z. H., J. F. Fei, X. P. Cheng, Y. Q. Wang, and X. G. Huang, 2015: Contributions of surface sensible heat fluxes to tropical cyclone. Part II: The sea spray processes. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4218–4236, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0058.1.
Murakami, H., Wang, B., and A. Kitoh, 2011: Future change of western North Pacific typhoons: Projections by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J. Climate, 24(4), 1154–1169, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3723.1.
Murakami, H., G. A. Vecchi, and S. Underwood, 2017: Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea. Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 885–889, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6.
Muthuchami, A., and P. Dhanavanthan, 2007: Probable storm motion in the Bay of Bengal in April and May. J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 11(4), 209–215.
Ng, E. K. W., and J. C. L. Chan, 2012: Interannual variations of tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 819–830, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2304.
Pattanaik, D. R., 2005: Variability of oceanic and atmospheric conditions during active and inactive periods of storms over the Indian region. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1523–1530, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1189.
Rajeevan, M., J. Srinivasan, K. Niranjan Kumar, C. Gnanaseelan, and M. M. Ali, 2013: On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Atmos. Sci. Let., 14, 249–255, https://doi.org/10.1002/as12.447.
Rao, S. A., A. R. Dhakate, S. K. Saha, S. Mahapatra, H. S. Chaudhari, S. Pokhrel, and S. K. Sahu, 2012: Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently? Clim. Change, 110, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0121-x.
Ratna, S. B., A. Cherchi, P. V. Joseph, S. K. Behera, B. Abish, and S. Masina, 2016: Moisture variability over the Indo — Pacific region and its influence on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim. Dyn., 46, 949–965, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2624-z.
Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118(D14), 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.
Sahoo, B., and P. K. Bhaskaran, 2016: Assessment on historical cyclone tracks in the Bay of Bengal, east coast of India. Int. J. Climatol., 36, 95–109, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4331.
Saji, N. H., and T. Yamagata, 2003: Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole Mode events on global climate. Climate Research, 25, 151–169, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025151.
Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360–363, https://doi.org/10.1038/43855.
Sebastian, M., and M. R. Behera, 2015: Impact of SST on tropical cyclones in North Indian Ocean. Procedia Engineering, 116, 1072–1077, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.346.
Shen, W. X., R. E. Tuleya, and I. Ginis, 2000: A sensitivity study of the thermodynamic environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity: Implications for global warming. J. Climate, 13(1), 109–121, https://doi.org/10.1175/1500-4422(2000)013<0109:ASSOTT>2.0.CO;2.
Singh, O. P., 2008: Indian Ocean dipole mode and tropical cyclone frequency. Current Science, 04(1), 29–31.
Strazzo, S. E., J. B. Elsner, T. E. LaRow, H. Murakami, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao, 2016: The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8(3), 1037–1054, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000635.
Sumesh, K. G., and M. R. Ramesh Kumar, 2013: Tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean during El-Niño Modoki years. Natural Hazards, 68(2), 1057–1074, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0679-x.
Tuleya, R. E., M. Bender, T. R. Knutson, J. J. Sirutis, B. Thomas, and I. Ginis, 2016: Impact of upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies and vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone evolution using an idealized version of the operational GFDL hurricane model. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3803–3820, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0045.1.
Wang, B., Y. X. Yang, Q. H. Ding, H. Murakami, and F. Huang, 2010: Climate control of the global tropical storm days (1965–2008). Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042487.
Wang, L., R. H. Huang, and R. G. Wu, 2013: Interdecadal variability in tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and its association with the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 768–771, https://doi.org/10.1002/GRL.50171.
Xavier, P. K., and P. V. Joseph, 2000: Vertical wind shear in relation to frequency of monsoon depressions and tropical cyclones of Indian Seas. Proc. TROPMET-2000, National Symp. on Ocean and Atmosphere, Cochin, India, Indian Meteorological Society, 232–245.
Yu, L. S., X. Z. Jin, and R. Z. Weller, 2007: Annual, seasonal, and interannual variability of air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 20, 3190–3209, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4163.1.
Yu, L. X., X. Jin, and R. A. Weller, 2008: Multidecade Global Flux Datasets from the Objectively Analyzed Air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) Project: Latent and sensible heat fluxes, ocean evaporation, and related surface meteorological variables. OA-2008-01, 64 pp.
Zehr, R. M., 1992: Tropical cyclogenesis in the western north Pacific. NOAA Tech. Res. NESDIS 61, 181 pp.
Zeng, L. L., and D. X. Wang, 2009: Intraseasonal variability of latent-heat flux in the South China Sea. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 97, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0131-z.
Zhang, S., M. Zhao, S. J. Lin, X. S. Yang, W. Anderson, A. Rosati, S. Underwood, and F. Zeng, 2015: Impact of having realistic tropical cyclone frequency on ocean heat content and transport forecasts in a high-resolution coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 5966–5973, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064745.
Zhang, W., G. Villarini, G. A. Vecchi, and H. Murakami, 2019: Rainfall from tropical cyclones: high-resolution simulations and seasonal forecasts. Clim. Dyn., 52, 5269–5289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4446-2.
Zhao, H. K., and C. Z. Wang, 2019: On the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer. Clim. Dyn., 52, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4136-0.
Zhao, H. K., L. G. Wu, and G. B. Raga, 2018: Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 134, 707–720, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2420-x.
Zhao, H. K., X. N. Jiang, and L. G. Wu, 2015a: Modulation of northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis by the intraseasonal variability. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 93(1), 81–97, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-006.
Zhao, H. K., R. Yoshida, and G. B. Raga, 2015b: Impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on Western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis associated with large-scale patterns. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 54, 1413–1429, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0254.1.
Zhou, L. T., G. S. Chen, and R. G. Wu, 2015: Change in surface latent heat flux and its association with tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 119, 221–227, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1096-0.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to NCEP-NCAR, WHOI OAFlux, the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the IMD for providing datasets used in this study. S. ABHILASH thanks UGC BSR for providing facilities and support. We thank C. S ABHIRAM for helping with analyzing the data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Article Highlights
• Distinct background climate states favor epochal variability in cyclone frequency during the onset phase of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea and a decreasing trend over the Bay of Bengal.
• The distinct variability is closely linked with the variability in the favorable cyclogenesis parameters over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
• The thermodynamic and dynamic background basic states corroborate well the frequency variation in cyclones during the different epochs.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Baburaj, P.P., Abhilash, S., Mohankumar, K. et al. On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 37, 634–651 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9070-5
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9070-5