Abstract
This paper analyses the interaction between centralised carbon emissive technologies and distributed intermittent non-emissive technologies. In our model, there is a representative consumer who can satisfy her electricity demand by investing in distributed generation (solar panels) and by buying power from a centralised firm at a price the firm sets. Distributed generation is intermittent and induces an externality cost to the consumer. The firm provides non-random electricity generation subject to a carbon tax and to transmission costs. The objective of the consumer is to satisfy her demand while minimising investment costs, payments to the firm and intermittency costs. The objective of the firm is to satisfy the consumer’s residual demand while minimising investment costs, demand deviation costs, and maximising the payments from the consumer. We formulate the investment decisions as McKean–Vlasov control problems with stochastic coefficients. We provide explicit, price model-free solutions to the optimal decision problems faced by each player, the solution of the Pareto optimum, and the Stackelberg equilibrium where the firm is the leader. We find that, from the social planner’s point of view, the carbon tax or transmission costs are necessary to justify a positive share of distributed capacity in the long-term, whatever the respective investment costs of both technologies are. The Stackelberg equilibrium is far from the Pareto equilibrium and leads to an over-investment in distributed energy and to a much higher price for centralised energy.
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This work is supported by FiME (Finance for Energy Market Research Centre) and the “Finance et Développement Durable - Approches Quantitatives” EDF - CACIB Chair.
A Appendix
A Appendix
1.1 A.1 Proof of Theorem 3.1
Given a candidate in the form of (3.7), our goal is to set the coefficients \(K,\Lambda ,Y,R\) so as to satisfy the condition in (3.9). By applying the Itô formula and completing the square with respect to the control, we get (3.10), where the coefficients are defined by
Condition (3.11) then leads to the following equations for the coefficients:
The first and second equations admit constant strictly positive solutions \(K_t \equiv K\) and \(\Lambda _t \equiv \Lambda \), with \(K,\Lambda \) as in (3.15). The third and the fourth equations are linear Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs), with the immediate solution (for the coefficient \(Y_t\), first compute \(Y_t - \mathbb {E}[Y_t]\)) given by:
Furthermore, \(Y_t\) is well-defined by the Holder inequality and (3.5), whereas (A.2) will imply that \(R_t<\infty \). We get (3.13) by plugging (A.1) into (3.12), while (3.14) immediately follows by (2.1) and (3.13). By the procedure above, conditions (ii) and (iii) in Lemma 3.1 are verified (we will later prove that \(\hat{\alpha }\) actually lies in \({\mathcal {A}}\)). As for condition (i), we have to prove that
It immediately follows from the definition that \(\mathbb {E}[ e^{-\rho t} |R_t|] \rightarrow 0\) as \(t \rightarrow \infty \); as for the process Y, we prove the stronger condition
By Jensen’s inequality, Fubini’s theorem, the law of iterated conditional expectations, and (3.5), we have:
We deal with the other terms in \(Y_t\) by the same arguments and obtain the required integrability condition (A.2). Let us finally show that \(\hat{\alpha } \in {\mathcal {A}}\), i.e. \(\int _0^\infty e^{-\rho t}\mathbb {E}[|\hat{\alpha }_t|^2] dt < \infty \). Recall that \(\hat{\alpha }\) is written as
with
By Itô’s formula to (2.1) for \(\alpha = \hat{\alpha }\), Young’s inequality, and Gronwall’s lemma, we have:
for all \(\epsilon > 0\). For \(\epsilon \) small enough, and under (3.3), we have \(\rho - \sigma ^2 - b\epsilon > 0\), and thus it suffices to show that \(\int _0^\infty e^{-\rho t} \mathbb {E}[|U_t|^2] dt < \infty \) to ensure the square-integrability condition: \(\int _0^\infty e^{-\rho t} \mathbb {E}[|\hat{X}_t|^2] dt < \infty \), and so \(\hat{\alpha } \in {\mathcal {A}}\). From the integrability condition (A.2) on Y, we then have to check that \(\int _0^\infty e^{-\rho t} \big (\mathbb {E}[\hat{X}_t]\big )^2 dt < \infty \), hence by (3.14) that (we set \(B = b^2\Lambda /\gamma \))
By Fubini-Tonelli we can rewrite I as:
by writing \(e^{-(\rho + B)u} = e^{-2\epsilon u}e^{-(\rho + B -2\epsilon )u}\) for \(\epsilon >0\), by Jensen’s inequality w.r.t. the measure \(e^{-2\epsilon u} du\) and by Fubini-Tonelli, we get:
which finally leads to
Hence, from (3.5) and for \(\epsilon \) small enough we have \(I < \infty \) and then \(\hat{\alpha } \in {\mathcal {A}}\). \(\square \)
1.2 A.2 Proof of Theorem 3.2
A suitable adaptation of Lemma 3.1 holds. We look for a candidate in the form of:
where the dynamics of the coefficients K, Y, R are given by
for some deterministic process \(\dot{K}\) and \(\mathbb {F}^0\)-adapted processes \(\dot{Y}\), \(\dot{R}\), \(Z^Y\), \(Z^R\). As in “Appendix A.1”, we have assumed the quadratic coefficient to be deterministic. Moreover, since the randomness comes from the \(\mathbb {F}\)-adapted process \(X^\alpha \), the stochastic part in Y, R only depends on W.
By applying Itô’s formula to \(S_t^\nu = e^{-\rho t} v_t(Q_t^\nu ) +\int _0^t e^{-\rho s} \ell _s(Q^\nu _s,\nu _s)ds\) and completing the square, we get \(d\mathbb {E}[S_t^\nu ] = e^{-\rho t} \mathbb {E}[ {\mathcal {D}}_t^\nu ] dt\), with
where the coefficients are defined by
Setting \(\mathbb {E}[\mathcal {D}^\nu _t] \ge 0\) for each \(\nu \) and \(\mathbb {E}[\mathcal {D}^\nu _t] = 0\) for \(\nu = \hat{\nu }\) provides the optimal control
and the following equations for the coefficients:
The first equation admits a constant solution \(K_t \equiv \tilde{K}\), with \(\tilde{K}\) as in (3.21), while the second and third equations are linear BSDEs, with immediate solutions:
We get (3.19) by (A.4) and (A.2), whereas (3.20) immediately follows by (3.19) and (2.3). Moreover, the conditions (i) and (iii) in Lemma 3.1 are verified by standard estimates as in “Appendix A.1”. Finally, we get the limit result by the same computations as the ones in Proposition 3.1. \(\square \)
1.3 A.3 Proof of Theorem 3.3
A suitable adaptation of Lemma 3.1 holds. We use vector notations and a small change of variable by setting:
so that the dynamics of \(Z^\delta \) are written as
The payoff is rewritten as \(\tilde{g}_t(Z^\delta _t, \mathbb {E}[Z^\delta _t], \delta _t)\), where
where \('\) denotes transposition and the coefficients are defined by (notice that \(Q,\tilde{Q}, N, U\) are constant, T is stochastic and \(\mathbb {F}^0\)-adapted)
Correspondingly, we consider candidates in the form of:
where the dynamics of the coefficients \(K,\Lambda , Y,R\) are given by
for some symmetric deterministic processes \(\dot{K}, \dot{\Lambda }\) and \(\mathbb {F}^0\)-adapted processes \(\dot{Y}\), \(\dot{R}\), \(Z^Y\), \(Z^R\). As in “Appendix A.1”, we have assumed the quadratic coefficient to be deterministic. Moreover, since the randomness only comes from the \(\mathbb {F}^0\)-adapted process T, the stochastic part in Y, R only depends on \(W^0\).
By applying Itô’s formula to \(S_t^\delta = e^{-\rho t} v_t(Z_t^\delta , \mathbb {E}[Z_t^\delta ]) + \int _0^t e^{-\rho s} \tilde{g}_s(Z^\delta _s, \mathbb {E}[Z^\delta _s], \delta _s)ds\) and completing the square, we get \(d\mathbb {E}[S_t^\delta ] = e^{-\rho t} \mathbb {E}[ {\mathcal {D}}_t^\delta ] dt\), with
where the coefficients are defined by
Setting \(\mathbb {E}[\mathcal {D}^\delta _t] \ge 0\) for each \(\delta \) and \(\mathbb {E}[\mathcal {D}^\delta _t] = 0\) for \(\delta = \delta ^{*}\) provides the optimal control
and the following equations for the coefficients
The first and the second equation admit constant solutions \(K_t \equiv K\) and \(\Lambda _t \equiv \Lambda \): there exists a unique couple of symmetric positive-definite matrices \((K,\Lambda )\) which solves the equations
i.e. the systems (3.27) (we postpone the proof to the end of this “Appendix”). The third and the fourth equations are linear BSDEs, with immediate solution (for the coefficient \(Y_t\), first compute \(Y_t - \mathbb {E}[Y_t]\)):
Since \(K,\Lambda >0\), the matrices \(\rho \,\text {Id} + K N^{-1}\) and \(\rho \,\text {Id} + \Lambda N^{-1}\) are positive-definite and invertible; then, by arguing as in “Appendix A.1”, the processes \(Y_t\) and \(R_t\) are well-defined. We get (3.26) by plugging (A.12) into (A.9) and setting \(\tilde{Y} = Y+U\), whereas (3.28) immediately follows by (A.5) and (3.26). Moreover, the conditions (i) and (iii) in Lemma 3.1 are verified by standard estimates as in “Appendix A.1”. Further, we get the limit result by the same computations as the ones in Proposition 3.1. \(\square \)
Lemma A.1
There exists a unique couple of symmetric positive-definite matrices \((K,\Lambda )\) which solves the Eqs. (A.10)–(A.11).
Proof
Uniqueness immediately follows from (A.6). To prove the existence of the solutions, we link (A.10)–(A.11) to suitable control problems. For \(T \in \mathbb {R}^+ \cup \{\infty \}\) and \(x\in \mathbb {R}^2\), we consider
By arguing as in (3.4), it is easy to see that \(u \in \mathcal {U}_T\) implies \(\mathbb {E}\big [ \int _0^T e^{-\rho s} |X_s|^2 ds \big ] < \infty \), so that the problems are well-defined. If T is finite, we know [see (Yong and Zhou 1999, Sections 6.6 and 6.7), with a straightforward adaptation of the arguments to include the discount factor] that there exists a unique solution \(\{K_{t;T}\}_{t \in [0,T]}\) to
and that for every \(x \in \mathbb {R}^2\) we have
It is easy to see that \(V_T \rightarrow V_\infty \) as \(T \rightarrow \infty \); as a consequence, there exists
By a classical argument and since the functions \(\{K_{t;T}\}_{t \in [0,T]}\) solve (A.13), \(\tilde{K}\) is a solution to (A.10). Also, \(\tilde{K}\) is symmetric as it is the limit of symmetric matrices. Moreover, notice that \(N^{-1}>0\) and assume that \(Q>0\); by standard arguments in control theory, it follows that \(x'\tilde{K} x = V_\infty (x)>0\) for each \(x \ne 0\), so that \(\tilde{K}>0\). Hence, we have proved that (A.10) admits a symmetric positive-definite solution provided that \(Q>0\), which is true by (3.25).
By similar arguments, (A.11) admits a symmetric positive-definite solution provided that \(SKS + Q + \tilde{Q}>0\), which is true by (3.25), since \(K^{11}>0\). \(\square \)
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Aïd, R., Basei, M. & Pham, H. A McKean–Vlasov approach to distributed electricity generation development. Math Meth Oper Res 91, 269–310 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00186-019-00692-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00186-019-00692-8