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Analysis of the relationship between water level temporal changes and seismicity in the Mingechevir reservoir (Azerbaijan)

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Abstract

The temporal variations of the instrumental seismicity (0.5 ≤ ML ≤ 3.5) recorded in the Mingechevir area (Azerbaijan) between January 2010 to December 2018 and its relationship with the level variation of the water reservoir was analysed in this study. The monthly number of events was analysed by using the correlogram-based periodogram, the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which are robust against the short size of the time series. Our results point out to the following findings: (1) quasi-annual periodicity was found in one SSA reconstructed component of the monthly number of events; (2) quasi-annual periodicity was found in one EMD intrinsic mode function of the monthly number of earthquakes. These obtained results could support in a rigorously statistical manner that the seismicity occurring in Mingechevir area could be triggered by the yearly cycle of the water level of the reservoir.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, 85050, Tito, PZ, Italy

    Luciano Telesca

  2. Geology and Geophysics Institute, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, H. Javid Ave., 119, AZ1143, Baku, Azerbaijan

    Fakhraddin Kadirov, Rafig Safarov & Gulam Babayev

  3. Republican Seismological Survey Center of ANAS, Nigar Rafibeyli Str., 25, AZ1001, Baku, Azerbaijan

    Gurban Yetirmishli, Shirin Islamova & Sabina Kazimova

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  1. Luciano Telesca
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  2. Fakhraddin Kadirov
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  3. Gurban Yetirmishli
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  4. Rafig Safarov
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Correspondence to Luciano Telesca.

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Telesca, L., Kadirov, F., Yetirmishli, G. et al. Analysis of the relationship between water level temporal changes and seismicity in the Mingechevir reservoir (Azerbaijan). J Seismol 24, 937–952 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-020-09926-3

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