Abstract
The complexity of seismogenesis calls for probabilistic rather than deterministic model. Towards that direction, the stress release models transpose the elastic rebound theory in a stochastic framework, where the stress level in a region increases gradually between earthquakes due to constant tectonic loading and is released suddenly when an event occurs. The data are modeled through point processes and particularly by means of the hazard function. The application is performed using moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 4.8) occurred in Egypt and the model is compared with the Poisson model by means of information criteria.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
A. K. Abdel Aal, A. El Barkooky, M. Gerrits, H. Meyer, M. Schwander, and H. Zaki, “Tectonic evolution of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin and its significance for hydrocarbon prospectivity in the ultradeepwater of the Nile Delta, Shell Egypt Deepwater BV (Egypt),” The Leading Edge 19, 1086‒1102 (2000).
A. K. Abdel Aal, “Modeling of seismic hazard at the northeastern part of Greater Cairo metropolitan area, Egypt,” J. Geophys. 7, 75–90 (2010).
K. M. Abou Elenean, PhD Thesis (El-Mansoura, Egypt, 1997).
H. Akaike, “A new look at the statistical model identification,” IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 19, 716‒723 (1974).
Y. Bartov, PhD Thesis (Jerusalem, 1974).
Y. Bartov, G. Steinitz, M. Eyal, and Y. Eyal, “Sinistral movement along the Gulf of Aqaba—its age and relation to the opening of the Red Sea,” Nature 285, 220–222 (1980).
M. Barazangi, D. Seber, T. Chaimov, J. Best, R. Litak, D. Al-Saad, and T. Sawaf, “Tectonic evolution of the northern Arabian plate in western Syria,” in Recent Evolution and Seismicity of the Mediterranean Region, Ed. by E. Boschi, E. Mantovani, and A. Morelli (Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1993), pp.117–140.
M. Bebbington and D. Harte, “On the statistics of the linked stress release process,” J. Appl. Probab. 38,176–187 (2001).
M. Bebbington and D. Harte, “The linked stress release model for spatio-temporal seismicity: Formulations, procedures and applications,” Geophys. J. Int. 154, 925–946 (2003).
Z. Ben-Avraham, G. Almagor, and Z. Garfunkel, “Sediments and structure of the Gulf of Aqaba-northern Red Sea,” Sediment. Geol. 23, 239–267 (1979).
C. Bufe and D. Varnes, “Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay region,” J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth 98, 9871–9883 (1993).
Seismology Department of National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (Helwan, Cairo, Egypt), Egyptian National Seismic Network, Bulletin of Egyptian Earthquakes (2007‒2015). www.nriag.sci.eg. Accessed November 31, 2019.
J. R. Cochran, “A model for development of the Red Sea,” AAPG Bull. 67, 41–69 (1983).
D. Daley and D. Vere-Jones, An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes, 2nd ed. (Springer, New York, 2003), Vol. 1.
M. A. El-Eraki, A. K. Abdel-Aal, and S. I. Mostafa, “Multiseismotectonic models, present-day seismicity and seismic hazard assessment for Suez Canal and its surrounding area, Egypt,” Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ. 75, 503–517 (2015).
M. Eyal, Y. Eyal, Y. Bartov, and G. Steinitz, “The tectonic development of the western margin of the Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba) rift,” Tectonophysics 80, 39–66 (1981).
R. Freund, Z. Garfunkel, I. Zak, M. Goldberg, B. Derin, and T. Weissbrod, “The shear along the Dead Sea rift,” Philos. Soc. Trans. R. Soc., A 267, 107–130 (1970).
M. A. Gamal, “Truthfulness of the existence of the Pelusium Megashear fault system, east of Cairo, Egypt,” Int. J. Geosci. 4 (1), 212–227 (2013).
R. W. Girdler and P. Styles, “Sea floor spreading in the western Gulf of Aden,” Nature 271, 615–617 (1978).
R. A. Guiraud and W. Bosworth, “Phanerozoic geodynamic evolution of Northeastern Africa and the northwestern Arabian platform,” Tectonophysics 315, 73–108 (1999).
Z. Garfunkel, “Internal structure of the Dead Sea leaky transform (rift) in relation to plate kinematics,” Tectonophysics 80, 81‒108 (1981).
Z. Garfunkel, PhD Thesis (Jerusalem, 1974).
M. Imoto and N. Hurukawa, “Assessing potential seismic activity in Vrancea, Romania, using a stress-release model,” Earth, Planets Space 58, 1511–1514 (2006).
S. Joffe and Z. Garfunkel, “Plate kinematics of the circum Red Sea—a re-evaluation,” Tectonophysics 141, 5–22 (1987).
J. Liu, D. Vere-Jones, L. Ma, Y. Shi, and J. C. Zhuang, “The principal of coupled stress release model and its application,” Acta Seismol. Sin. 11, 273–281(1998).
C. Liu, Y. Chen, Y. Shi, and D. Vere-Jones, “Coupled stress release model for time-dependent seismicity,” Pure Appl. Geophys. 155, 649–667 (1999).
C. Lu and D. Vere-Jones, “Application of linked stress release model to historical earthquake data: Comparison between two kinds of tectonic seismicity,” Pure A-ppl. Geophys. 157, 2351–2364 (2000).
C. Lu, D. Harte, and M. Bebbington, “A linked stress release model for historical Japanese earthquakes: Coupling among major seismic regions,” Earth, Planets Space 51, 907–916 (1999).
O. Mangira, R. Console, E. Papadimitriou, and G. Vasiliadis, “A restricted Linked Stress Release Model (LSRM) for the Corinth Gulf (Greece),” Tectonophysics 723, 162‒171 (2018).
O. Mangira, G. Vasiliadis, and E. Papadimitriou, “Application of a linked stress release model in Corinth Gulf and Central Ionian Islands (Greece),” Acta Geophys. 65, 517–531 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0031-z
A. M. Quennell, “Tectonics of the Dead Sea rift,” 20th International Geological Congress, Mexico, 1956 (1956), pp. 385–405.
H. F. Reid, “Permanent displacements of the grounds,” in The Mechanics of the Earthquake, Vol. 2 of The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906. Report of the State Investigation Commission in Two Volumes and Atlas (Carnegie Inst. Washington, Washington, D.C., 1910), pp. 16–28.
D. Robson, “The structure of the Gulf of Suez (Clysmic) rift with special reference to the eastern side,” Q. J. Geol. Soc. London 15, 247–276 (1971).
R. Rotondi and E. Varini, “Bayesian inference of stress release models applied to some Italian seismogenic zones,” Geophys. J. Int. 169, 301–314 (2006).
A. Salamon, A. Hofstetter, Z. Garfunkel, and H. Ron, “Seismicity of the Eastern Mediterranean region: perspective from the Sinai subplate,” Tectonophysics 263, 293–305 (1996).
A. Sneh, “The Dead Sea rift: Lateral displacement and down faulting passes,” Tectonophysics 33, 277–292 (1996).
E. Varini and R. Rotondi, “Probability distribution of the waiting time in the stress release model, the Gompertz distribution,” Environ. Ecol. Stat. 22 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-014-0307-2
E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, and S. Barba, “Stress release model and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources,” Tectonophysics 682, 147–168 (2016).
D. Vere-Jones, “Earthquake prediction–a statistician’s view,” J. Phys. Earth. 26, 129‒146 (1978).
D. Vere-Jones and Y. L. Deng, “A point process analysis of historical earthquakes from North China,” Earthquake Res. China 2, 165–181 (1988).
D. Vere-Jones, Y. Ben-Zion, and R. Zuniga, “Statistical seismology,” Pure Appl. Geophys. 162, 1023–1026 (2005).
I. Votsi, G. Tsaklidis, and E. Papadimitriou, “Seismic hazard assessment in Central Ionian Islands Area based on stress release models,” Acta Geophys. 59, 701–727 (2011).
S. Wiemer and M. Wyss, “Minimum magnitude of completeness reporting in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the western United States, and Japan,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, 859–869 (2000).
X. Zheng and D. Vere-Jones, “Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China,” Pure Appl. Geophys. 135, 559‒576 (1991).
X. Zheng and D. Vere-Jones, “Further applications of the stochastic stress release model to historical earthquake data,” Tectonophysics 229, 101–121 (1994).
Y. Ogata, “On Lewis’ simulation method for point processes,” IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 27, 23‒31 (1981).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are very grateful to Egyptian National Seismic Network and Aswan Earthquake Research Center, the Department of Seismology, National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG; Cairo, Egypt) for kindly supporting us with data and providing us with all scientific facilities to perform this study and Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece) for providing all facilities during this work. The authors are grateful to the Reviewers for their suggestions from which the manuscript benefited a lot.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
The article is published in the original.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Omar, K.A., Mangira, O. A Stress Release Model in Egypt. Geotecton. 54, 106–112 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016852120010082
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016852120010082