Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A statistical analysis on the contribution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this study, the contribution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh has been investigated. Rainfall, temperature, and ENSO data have been used for a period of 60 years (1958–2017). This paper examines the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature across Bangladesh and the results suggest that the distribution of rainfall and temperature varies with seasons. A geographically weighted regression, Student’s t test, correlation coefficient, and cross-wavelet transform were used to reveal whether different types of ENSO contribute strongly or weakly to rainfall and temperature in Bangladesh. Findings indicate that the ENSO has a strong connection with rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahasan MN, Chowdhary MA, Quadir DA (2010) Variability and trends of summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh. J Hydrol Meteorol 7:1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed AS, Munim AA, Begum QN, Choudhury AM (1996) El-Nino Southern Oscillation and rainfall variation over Bangladesh. Mausam 47:157–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed R, Kim IK (2003) Patterns of daily rainfall in Bangladesh during the summer monsoon season: case studies at three stations. Phys Geogr 24:295–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed S, Ronald H, Curtis S, Matsumoto J (2006) Teleconnections between the sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal and monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh. Glob Planet Change 53:188–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan RJ (1988) El Nino Southern Oscillation influences in the Australasian region. Prog Phys Geogr 12(3):313–348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guann Z, Saji H, Yamagata T (2004) Individual and combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian Summer Monsoon. J Clim 17:3144–3155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Saji N (2007) On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nat Hazards 42(2):273–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112:C11007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bari SH, Hussain MM, Husna R (2017) Rainfall variability and seasonality in northern Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 129:995–1005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bari SH, Rahman MTU, Hoque MA, Hussai MM (2016) Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh. Atmos Res 176–177:148–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belmadani A, Dewitte B, An SI (2010) ENSO feedbacks and associated time scales of variability in a multimodel ensemble. J Clim 23(12):3181–3204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caesar J, Janes T, Lindsay A, Bhaskaran B (2015) Temperature and precipitation projections over Bangladesh and the upstream Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna systems. Environ Sci Process Impact 17(6):1047–1056

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Dolan SC (1986) Experimental forecasts of El Nino. Nature 321(6073):827–832

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chand SS, Walsh KJE (2011) Influence of ENSO on tropical cyclone intensity in the Fiji region. J Clim 24(15):4096–4108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdhury MR (2003) The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal flooding—Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 76:105–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang XH, Mu M (2018) A three-region conceptual model for central pacific El Niño including zonal advective feedback. J Clim 31:4965–4979

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freund MB, Henley BJ, Karoly DJ, McGregor HV, Abram NJ, Dommenget D (2019) Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries. Nat Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0353-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girishkumar MS, Suprit K, Vishnu S, Prakash VPT, Ravichandran M (2015) The role of ENSO and MJO on rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during October–December. Theor Appl Climatol 120(3–4):797–810

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gu D, Philander S (1995) Secular changes of annual and interannual variability in the Tropics during the past century. J Clim 8:864–876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guan B, Nigam S (2008) Pacific sea surface temperatures in the twentieth century: an evolution-centric analysis of variability and trend. J Clim 21:2790–2809

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hossain MS, Roy K, Datta DK (2014) Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over the south-west coast of Bangladesh. Climate 2:28–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu X, Yang S, Cai M (2016) Contrasting the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño: process-based feedback attribution. Clim Dyn 47:2413–2424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Islam MN, Terao T, Uyeda H, Hayashi T, Kikuchi K (2005) Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in and around Bangladesh. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 83:21–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Islam MN, Uyeda H (2008) Use of TRMM in determining the climatic characteristics of rainfall over Bangladesh. Remote Sens Environ 108(3):264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kao HY, Yu JY (2009) Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of El Niño. J Clim 22:615–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kataoka A, Satomura T (2005) Numerical simulation on the diurnal variation of precipitation over northeastern Bangladesh: a case study of an active period 14–21 June 1995. SOLA 1:205–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kestin T, Karoly D, Yang J, Rayner N (1998) Time-frequency variability of ENSO and stochastic simulations. J Clim 11:2258–2272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Inamdar S, Sontakke A (1996) Rainfall variability over Bangladesh and Nepal: comparison and connections with features over India. Int J Climatol 16:689–703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2000) Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India. J Clim 13:4366–4377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kug JS, Jin FF, An SI (2009) Two types of El Niño events: cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño. J Clim 22:1499–1515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM (1985) Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 42:1552–1558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larkin NK, Harrison DE (2005) Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Luo JJ, Li S (2017) Impacts of different types of ENSO on the interannual seesaw between the somali and the maritime continent cross-equatorial flows. J Clim 30:2621–2638

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Yamagata T (2001) Long-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variation with special emphasis on the South Pacific. J Geophys Res Oceans 106(C10):22211–22227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2008) Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J Clim 21(1):84–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Zhang R, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Jin FF, Lukas R, Yamagata T (2010) Interaction between El Nino and extreme Indian ocean dipole. J Clim 23(3):726–742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mannan MA, Chowdhury MAM, Karmakar S (2016) Prediction of rainfall over southeastern part of Bangladesh during monsoon season. Int J Sci Technol 2:73–82

    Google Scholar 

  • Maraun D, Kurths J (2004) Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls. Nonlinear Process Geophys 11:505–514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murata F, Terao T, Hayashi T, Asada H, Matsumoto J (2008) Relationship between atmospheric conditions at Dhaka, Bangladesh, and rainfall at Cherrapunjee, India. Nat Hazards 44:399–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ohsawa T, Ueda H, Hayashi T, Watanabe A, Matsumoto J (2001) Diurnal variations of connective activity and rainfall in tropical Asia. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 79:333–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Philander SGH (1985) El Niño and La Niña. J Atmos Sci 42(23):2652–2662

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Philander SGH (1990) El Niño, La Niña and the southern oscillation. Academic Press, San Diego, p 293

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahman MR, Salehin M, Matsumoto J (1997) Trends of monsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladesh. Bangladesh J Water Resour 14(8):121–138

    Google Scholar 

  • Rafiuddin M, Uyeda H, Islam MN (2010) Characteristics of monsoon precipitation systems in and around Bangladesh. Int J Climatol 30:1042–1055

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahman MA, Kamal SM, Billah MM (2017) Prediction and trends of rainfall variability over Bangladesh. Sci J Appl Math Stat 5(1):54–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rashid HE (1991) Geography of Bangladesh. The University Press Limited, Dhaka, p 18

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren HL, Jin FF (2011) Ni˜no indices for two types of ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 38:L04704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1996) Quantifying southern oscillation-precipitation relationships. J Clim 9(5):1043–1059

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roy M (2013) Time series, factors and impacts analysis of rainfall in north-eastern part in Bangladesh. Int J Sci Res Publ 3(8):1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Mallika R, Ghosh S (2013) Rainfall variation in Bangladesh: trends, factors and effects. Manag Res Pract 5(3):57–75

    Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S (2010) Recent trends in the climate of Bangladesh. Clim Res 42:185–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Khairulmaini OS (2009) Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969–2003. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 45:375–389

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh RB, Mal S (2014) Trends and variability of monsoon and other rainfall seasons in western Himalaya, India. Atmos Sci Lett 15:218–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terao T, Islam MN, Hayashi T, Oka T (2006) Nocturnal jet and its effects on early morning rainfall peak over northeastern Bangladesh during the summer monsoon season. Geophys Res Lett 33:L18806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terao T, Islam MN, Murata F, Hayashi T (2008) High temporal and spatial resolution observations of meso-scale features of pre-and mature summer monsoon cloud systems over Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 44:341–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo G (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Stepaniak DP (2001) Indices of El Niño evolution. J Clim 14:1697–1701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahiduzzaman M, Oliver ECJ, Wotherspoon SJ, Holbrook NJ (2017) A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall. Clim Dyn 49:2585–2603

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahiduzzaman M, Oliver ECJ, Klotzbach PJ, Wotherspoon SJ, Holbrook NJ (2019a) A statistical seasonal forecast model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones using the quasi-biennial oscillation. Int J Climatol 39(2):934–952

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahiduzzaman M, Oliver ECJ, Wotherspoon SJ, Luo JJ (2019b) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region: the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05075-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahiduzzaman M, Yeasmin A (2019a) Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries. Atmos Res 227:89–100

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahiduzzaman M, Yeasmin A (2019b) A kernel density estimation approach of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone formation and the association with convective available potential energy and equivalent potential temperature. Meteorol Appl Phys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00711-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Z, Yang S (2016) Rainfall variations over the Bay of Bengal and southern Tibetan Plateau and their connections with different tropical forcing during the early and middle summer. In: American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016

  • Werner A, Maharaj AM, Holbrook NJ (2012) A new method for extracting the ENSO-independent Indian Ocean Dipole: application to Australian region tropical cyclone counts. Clim Dyn 38(11–12):2503–2511

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh SW, Kug JS, Dewitte B, Kwon MH, Kirtman BP, Jin FF (2009) El Niño in a changing climate. Nature 461:511–514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu JY, Kao HY (2007) Decadal changes of ENSO persistence barrier in SST and ocean heat content indices: 1958–2001. J Geophys Res 112:D13106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu JY, Kao HY, Lee T, Kim ST (2011) Subsurface ocean temperature indices for Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific types of El Niño and La Niña events. Theor Appl Climatol 103:337–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu JY, Kim ST (2013) Identifying the types of major El Niño events since 1870 Int. J Climatol 33:2105–2112

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

M. Wahiduzzaman was supported by Postdoctoral fellowship from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China and two projects funding from the Ministry of Science and Technology, Bangladesh. Jing-Jia Luo is supported by “The Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST”. Authors are grateful to anonymous reviewers for their constructive review that significantly improved the manuscript. Authors are also thankful to Temesgen, Tang Shaolei, and Jalal Uddin from NUIST.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Md Wahiduzzaman & Jing-Jia Luo

Authors
  1. Md Wahiduzzaman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jing-Jia Luo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jing-Jia Luo.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: S. Fiedler.

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wahiduzzaman, M., Luo, JJ. A statistical analysis on the contribution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 55–68 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00733-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00733-6

Search

Navigation