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Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes

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Abstract

The criteria used by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) for its Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) are the global standards for ecosystem-level risk assessment, and they have been increasingly used for biodiversity conservation. The changed distribution area of an ecosystem is one of the key criteria in such assessments. The Stipa bungeana grassland is one of the most widely distributed grasslands in the warm-temperate semi-arid regions of China. However, the total distribution area of this grassland was noted to have shrunk and become fragmented because of its conversion to cropland and grazing-induced degradation. Following the IUCN-RLE standards, here we analyzed changes in the geographical distribution of this degraded grassland, to evaluate its degradation and risk of collapse. Past (1950-1980) distribution areas were extracted from the Vegetation Map of China (1:1,000,000). Present realizable distribution areas were equated to these past areas minus any habitat area losses. We then predicted the grassland’s present and future (under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) potential distribution areas using maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), based on field survey data and nine environmental layers. Our results showed that the S. bungeana grassland was mainly distributed in the Loess Plateau, Hexi Corridor, and low altitudes of the Qilian Mountains and Longshou Mountain. This ecosystem occurred mainly on loess soils, kastanozems, steppe aeolian soils and sierozems. Thermal and edaphic factors were the most important factors limiting the distribution of S. bungeana grassland across China. Since 56.1% of its past distribution area (4.9×104 km2) disappeared in the last 50 a, the present realizable distribution area only amounts to 2.2×104 km2. But only 15.7% of its present potential distribution area (14.0×104 km2) is actually occupied by the S. bungeana grassland. The future potential distribution of S. bungeana grassland was predicted to shift towards northwest, and the total area of this ecosystem will shrink by 12.4% over the next 50 a under the most pessimistic climate change scenario. Accordingly, following the IUCN-RLE criteria, we deemed the S. bungeana grassland ecosystem in China to be endangered (EN). Revegetation projects and the establishment of protected areas are recommended as effective ways to avert this looming crisis. This empirical modeling study provides an example of how IUCN-RLE categories and criteria may be valuably used for ecosystem assessments in China and abroad.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (2015FY210200), the “Strategic Priority Research Program” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19050402); the “Assessment Methods for Red List of Ecosystems in China” Program of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China; and the “Characteristic Analysis of Important Ecosystems in China” Program of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences. Assistance from many colleagues enabled this study. We thank Dr. WANG Zi, Dr. WU Popo, Ms. ZHU Hong, and Dr. PANG Zhe for their great help during the field survey work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093, China

    Xianguo Qiao, Ke Guo & Chenguang Gao

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Xianguo Qiao & Ke Guo

  3. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China

    Guoqing Li

  4. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, 712100, China

    Guoqing Li

  5. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Ecology and Resource Use of the Mongolian Plateau & Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecology, School of Ecology and Environment, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot, 010021, China

    Liqing Zhao & Frank Yonghong Li

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  1. Xianguo Qiao
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Correspondence to Ke Guo.

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Qiao, X., Guo, K., Li, G. et al. Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes. J. Arid Land 12, 303–317 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-020-0121-7

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