Abstract
Analyses of in situ and reanalysis output are performed to examine linkages between surface sensible heat fluxes over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CETP) and indices of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and wintertime near-surface air temperatures over China. The results demonstrate that the sensible heat fluxes over CETP exhibit substantial decadal variability with positive, negative and positive phase during 1980–1987, 1988–2002 and 2003–2014, respectively. This decadal variability exhibits statistically significant associations with sub-components of EAWM and surface temperature anomalies over eastern China. The recovery of decadal change in wintertime sensible heat fluxes from negative to positive phase over CETP over the past decade (since 2003) has been associated with intensification and northward displacement of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), enhanced and westward displacement of East Asian trough and strengthening of the Siberian High. Such processes are associated with the strengthening of EAWM, as well as cold air advection from high latitudes towards the south. Increased wintertime sensible heat fluxes over CETP is associated with markedly changes in the meridional temperature gradient that in term intensifies upper-level zone flow in the EASJ region, which provides a key physical factor linking the anomalies of sensible heat fluxes and EAWM.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bretherton CS, Smith C, Wallace JM (1992) An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J Clim 6:541–560. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0383:LCTOTO>2.0.CO;2
Chen LX, Reiter ER, Feng ZQ (1985) The atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau: May-August 1979. Mon Weather Rev 113:1771–1790. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<1771:TAHSOT>2.0.CO;2
Chen W, Hans FG, Huang R (2000) The interannual variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 17(1):48–60
Chen L, Pryor SC, Wang H, Zhang R (2019) Distribution and variation of the surface sensible heat flux over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau: comparison of station observations and multireanalysis products. J Geophys Res Atmos 124:6191–6206. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030069
Cheung HN, Zhou W, Mok HY, Wu MC (2012) Relationship between Ural–Siberian blocking and the East Asian winter monsoon in relation to the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. J Clim 25(12):4242–4257
Cui XP, Sun ZB (1999) East Asian winter monsoon index and its variation analysis. J Nanjing Inst Meteorol 22(3):321–325 (in Chinese)
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Co-authors (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteor Soc 137(656):553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Ding Y (1994) Monsoons over China. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht
Ding Y, Krishnamurti TN (1987) Heat budget of the Siberian high and the winter monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 115:2428–2449
Ding Y, Liu Y, Liang S, Ma X, Zhang Y, Si D, Liang P, Song Y, Zhang J (2014) Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change. J Meteorol Res 28(5):693–713
Duan A, Wu G (2008) Weakening trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Part I: Observations. J Clim 21(13):3149–3164. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2699.1
Duan A, Li F, Wang M, Wu G (2011) Persistent weakening trend in the spring sensible heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and its impact on the Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 24(21):5671–5682. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00052.1
Duan A, Wang M, Lei Y, Cui Y (2013) Trends in summer rainfall over china associated with the Tibetan Plateau sensible heat source during 1980–2008. J Clim 26(1):261–275. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00669.1
Duan A, Xiao Z, Wang Z (2018) Impacts of the Tibetan Plateau winter/spring snow depth and surface heat source on Asian summer monsoon: a review. Chin J Atmos Sci 42(4):755–766. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1801.17247 (in Chinese)
Fallah B, Cubasch U, Prömmel K, Sodoudi S (2016) A numerical model study on the behaviour of Asian summer monsoon and AMOC due to orographic forcing of Tibetan Plateau. Clim Dyn 47(5–6):1485–1495. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2914-5
Gao R, Zhang R, Wen M, Li T (2019) Interdecadal changes in the asymmetric impacts of ENSO on wintertime rainfall over China and atmospheric circulations over western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 52:7525–7536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4282-4
Ha K-J, Heo K-Y, Lee S-S, Yun K-S, Jhun J-G (2012) Variability in the East Asian monsoon: a review. Meteorol Appl 19:200–215. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1320
He S, Gao Y, Li F, Wang H, He Y (2017) Impact of Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian climate: A review. Earth-Sci Rev 164:48–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.10.014
Hu C, Yang S, Wu Q (2015) An optimal index for measuring the effect of East Asian winter monsoon on China winter temperature. Clim Dyn 45:2571–2589. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2493-5
Huang R, Chen J, Huang G (2007) Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv Atmos Sci 24(6):993–1023
Huang R, Chen J, Wang L, Lin Z (2012) Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system. Adv Atmos Sci 29(5):910–942. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2015-x
Huang R, Liu Y, Feng T (2013) Interdecadal change of summer precipitation over Eastern China around the late-1990s and associated circulation anomalies, internal dynamical causes. Chin Sci Bull 58(12):1339–1349. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5545-9
Jhun JG, Lee EJ (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J Clim 17(4):711–726
Jones PD, Hulme M (1996) Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation methods and illustrations. Int J Climatol 16:361–377
Kaiser HF (1958) The varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis. Psychometrika 23(3):187–200
Kang L, Chen W, Wei K (2006) The interdecadal variation of winter temperature in China and its relation to the anomalies in atmospheric general circulation. Clim Environ Res 11(3):330–339. (in Chinese)
Kim JW, An SI, Jun SY, Park HJ, Yeh SW (2017) ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Clim Dyn 49(4):1157–1179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5
Lau K-M, Li M-T (1984) The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations-a survey. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 65(2):114–125
Lee S, Kim S, Jhun J, Ha K (2013) Robust warming over East Asia during the boreal winter monsoon and its possible causes. Environ Res Lett 8(3):034001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034001
Li G, Lu J, Jin B, Bu N (2001) The effects of anomalous snow cover of the Tibetan Plateau on the surface heating. Adv Atmos Sci 18(6):1207–1214
Li G, Zhao BJ, Lu JH (2002) Characteristics of bulk transfer coffeicients over the Tibetan Plateau. Acta Meteor Sin 60(1):60–67. (in Chinese)
Li D, Wei L, Li W, Lv L, Zhong H, Ji G (2003) The effect of surface sensible heat flux of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on general circulation over the Northern Hemisphere and climatic anomaly of China. Clim Environ Res 8(1):60–70 (in Chinese)
Luo X, Zhang Y (2015) The linkage between upper-level jet streams over East Asia and East Asian winter monsoon variability. J Clim 28(22):9013–9028. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0160.1
Naoto I, Wallace J (1995) Large scale air sea interaction in the Northern Hemisphere from a view point of variations of surface heat flux by SVD analysis.pdf. J Meteorol Soc Japan 73(4):781–794
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110(7):699–706. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2
Ren X, Yang X, Chu C (2010) Seasonal variations of the synoptic-scale transient eddy activity and Polar Front Jet over East Asia. J Clim 23(12):3222–3233. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3225.1
Richman MB (1986) Rotation of principal components. J Climatol 6:293–335
Shi Q, Liang S (2014) Surface-sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from ground measurements, reanalysis, and satellite data. Atmos Chem Phys 14(11):5659–5677. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5659-2014
Wallace JM, Hobbs PV (2006) Atmospheric science: an introductory survey, 2nd edn. Academic Press, London
Wallace JM, Smith C, Bretherton CS (1992) Singular value decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomalies. J Clim 5(6):561–576
Wang L, Chen W (2009) Interannual variations of East Asian trough axis at 500 hPa and its association with the East Asian winter monsoon pathway. J Clim 22(3):600–614. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2295.1
Wang L, Chen W (2014a) The East Asian winter monsoon: re-amplification in the mid-2000s. Chin Sci Bull 59(4):430–436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-013-0029-0
Wang L, Chen W (2014b) An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 27(6):2361–2374. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00086.1
Wang H, Li D (2019) Decadal variability in summer precipitation over eastern China and its response to sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau since the early 2000s. Int J Climatol 39:1604–1617. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5903
Wang L, Lu M (2017) The East Asian winter monsoon. In: C-P C, H-C K, N-C L, R H J, B W and M W (eds) The global monsoon system: research and forecast (3rd Edition). World Scientific Publishing Co., Pte. Ltd., 51–61. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813200913
Wang A, Wang Q (1985) The effects of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the mean general circulation in East Asia in winter. Plateau Meteorol 4(2):109–120 (in Chinese)
Wang L, Huang R, Gu L, Chen W, Kang L (2009) Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and their association with quasi-ttationary planetary wave activity. J Clim 22(18):4860–4872. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2973.1
Wang B, Wu Z, Chang CP, Liu J, Li J, Zhou L (2010) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: the northern and southern temperature modes. J Clim 23(6):1495–1512. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3243.1
Wilks DS (2011) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 3rd edn. Oxford, Academic Press
Wu G, Liu Y, Wang T, Wan R, Liu X, Li W, Wang Z, Zhang Q, Duan A, Liang X (2007) The influence of mechanical and thermal forcing by the Tibetan Plateau on Asian climate. J Hydrometeorol 8(4):770–789. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM609.1
Xie J, Yu Y, Li JL, Ge J, Liu C (2018) Comparison of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis and observations. Meteor Atmo Phys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0595-4
Xu L, Gao H, Li YQ (2009) Sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau linked to the onset of Asian monsoon. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 2(6):350–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2009.11446833
Yanai M, Li CF, Song ZS (1992) Seasonal heating of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70(1):189–221. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.70.1B_319
Yang X, Li D (2009) Variation of winter temperature in China and its responding to the anomalies in East Asian winter monsoon and surface heating field over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Plateau Meteor 28(4):731–737. (in Chinese)
Yang K, Guo X, Wu B (2011) Recent trends in surface sensible heat flux on the Tibetan Plateau. Sci China Earth Sci 54(1):19–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-010-4036-6
Yao T, Xue Y, Chen D, Coauthors (2019) Recent Third Pole’s rapid warming accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensification and interactions between monsoon and environment: multi-disciplinary approach with observation, modeling and analysis. Bull Am Meterol Soc 100:423–444. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0057.1
Ye D, Gao Y (1979) Meteorology of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Ye D, Wu G (1998) The role of the heat source of the Tibetan Plateau in the general circulation. Meteorol Atmos Phys 67(1–4):181–198. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01277509
Yeh TC (1950) The circulation of the high troposphere over China in the winter of 1945–46. Tellus 2(3):173–183. DOI:https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v2i3.8548
Zhang T (2005) Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: an overview. Rev Geophys. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000157
Zhang Y, Sperber KR, Boyle JS (1997) Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon: Results from the 1979-95 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Mon Wea Rev 125:2605–2619
Zhang Y, Xiao C (2013) Variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field over Asian mid- high latitude region. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 6(5):295–299. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.12.0104
Zhang J, Zhu B, Zhu F, Weng D, Sun G, Lv J, Peng Y, Wang Y (1988) Advances in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau meteorolory—the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau meteorological experiment (1979) and research. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Zhang R, Koike T, Xu X, Ma Y, Yang K (2012) A China-Japan cooperative JICA atmospheric observing network over the Tibetan Plateau (JICA/Tibet Project): an overview. J Meteor Soc Jpn 90C:1–16. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-C01
Zhang R, Zhang R, Zuo Z, Li W (2016) Temporal and spatial features and inter-annual variability of wintertime snow mass balance over China. Int J Climatol 36:3897–3390. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4599
Zhou X, Zhao P, Chen J, Chen L, Li W (2009) Impacts of thermodynamic processes over the Tibetan Plateau on the Northern Hemispheric climate. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci 39(11):1473–1486. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0194-9
Zhu X, Liu Y, Wu G (2012) An assessment of summer sensible heat flux on the Tibetan Plateau from eight data sets. Sci China Earth Sci 55(5):779–786. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-012-4379-2
Zhu L, Huang G, Fan G, Qu X, Zhao G, Hua W (2017) Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus. Adv Atmos Sci 34(10):1249–1262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6298-9
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank three anomalous reviewers for their constructive comments, which helped greatly in improving this paper. This study was jointly supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2018M641912), the National Key Research and Development Program (2016YFA0600602), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41790472), the Special Fund for Tibetan Plateau Research (GYHY201406001) and Fudan University-Tibet University Joint Laboratory For Biodiversity and Global Change. SCP is supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science (DE-SC0016438 and DE-SC0016605). The authors wish to acknowledge ECMWF for providing reanalysis products. Output from ERA-Interim is available for download from http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/. The authors also acknowledge the provision of high-quality, near-surface data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). These near-surface observations are available from http://www.ncc-cma.net/cn/.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, L., Zhang, R., Pryor, S.C. et al. Influence of wintertime surface sensible heat flux variability over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn 54, 4589–4603 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05246-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05246-x