Characterizing flood risk perception in urban communities of Pakistan

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and climate change have increased flood risk in urban settings. Risk perception is a vital constituent of flood risk management and risk communication. It has become important to understand risk perception so that appropriate disaster risk reduction strategies can be initiated. Socioeconomic factors influencing risk perception have a direct impact on potential adaptive capacities and disaster preparedness. This study gives an insight into psychosocial aspect of multifaceted risk in flood prone urban communities of Punjab, Pakistan. Three urban communities at high flood risk were selected from urban centres of different population size. A sample of 210 was collected using household surveys. Flood risk perception index was constructed using relevant indicators, and classified into high and low perceived risk. Logistic regression model was used to identify determinants of flood risk perception. The results show that past experiences and hazard proximity significantly influence risk perception. The determinants of risk perception also varied among the communities, depicting spatial variation. Findings of this study can help understanding flood risk perception and its determinants, in order to design proper risk communication strategies and flood risk management plans. In addition, this study can also support understanding multidimensional flood risk and its spatial dynamics from a social science perspective.

Introduction

Risk perception has become an important research agenda in disaster risk science. It predicts the willingness of exposed communities to undertake precautionary measures against external threats [[1], [2], [3]]. It is also seen as a factor predicting protective actions against natural hazards [4]. With higher risk perception, it is expected that the communities will also increase their capacities by undertaking climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness initiatives. Risk perception shows acceptability of risk and to some extent, predicts the community responses which subsequently helps designing appropriate public education programs and risk communication strategies [5]. Risk perception is also considered as an important component of social vulnerability assessment and community resilience [1]. Consequently, risk perception has become an important constituent of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation.

Flood is the most common and deadliest natural hazard in the world [6,7]. The frequency and intensity of flood events, especially in the Global South, have increased over the last few decades. There were an estimated 539,811 deaths, 361,974 injuries and 2.8 billion people affected by floods during 1980 and 2009 [6]. Between 1980 and 2016, total direct damages exceeded 1.6 trillion USD [8]. Asia is the worst affected region in the world, accounting for more than 50% of fatalities [6]. It is projected that climate change, extreme rainfall events and sea level rise would increase the flood risk [9,10]. Another reason, and arguably the bigger driver for the rise in flood-related damages, is the increase in population and infrastructure development in floodplains – urban areas are becoming hotspots of disaster risks [11,12]. Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and UN-HABITAT's New Urban Agenda calls for making cities safe, resilient and inclusive [13,14]. Both the “inclusive” and “resilient” aspects can be achieved by understanding the risk perception (and its determinants) of urban inhabitants.

Pakistan is a developing country in South Asia with a population of almost 207 million [78]. The average GDP growth of the country is 5.5% and ranked 147 on the Human Development Index (HDI) [15]. Its socioeconomic and physical development are focused on large urban areas resulting in disparity in small cities and rural areas [16]. With several basic issues such as health, education, poverty, housing, population growth and economic instability at the centre stage of government priorities, there is little room for disaster management. As a result, disaster management is carried out on an ad-hoc basis, with a top-down and reactive approach [17].

It is believed that climate change could possibly increase the frequency and severity of floods and therefore, it has become essential to assess how communities respond to these events [10,18]. Risk perception may vary spatially depending on exposure, socioeconomic conditions, cultural and religious backgrounds. Literature calls for more empirical testing in various settings for potential new insights and establishment of “well-grounded” theory [19]. In developing countries, especially Pakistan, limited studies have been conducted to examine risk perception and its determinants. Hence, it is imperative to study risk perception and its determinants that can influence communities. The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the levels of risk perception; (2) determine the socioeconomic factors influencing risk perception; and (3) understand the spatial variability of risk perception in three flood-prone communities (Dhok Ratta, Rawalpindi; Hajipura, Sialkot; and Khangarh, Muzaffargarh) in the province of Punjab, Pakistan. The next section of the paper presents an extended review of literature on risk perception, followed by the description of data and methods employed in this study. The findings on flood hazard exposure and risk perception in the selected communities are discussed in the results section, whereas important implications for policy makers and other stakeholders are presented at the end of this paper.