Estimating Abiotic Thresholds for Sagebrush Condition Class in the Western United States,☆☆,☆☆☆

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Abstract

Sagebrush ecosystems of the western United States can transition from extended periods of relatively stable conditions to rapid ecological change if acute disturbances occur. Areas dominated by native sagebrush can transition from species-rich native systems to altered states where non-native annual grasses dominate, if resistance to annual grasses is low. The non-native annual grasses provide relatively little value to wildlife, livestock, and humans and function as fuel that increases fire frequency. The more land area covered by annual grasses, the higher the potential for fire, thus reducing the potential for native vegetation to reestablish, even when applying restoration treatments. Mapping areas of stability and areas of change using machine-learning algorithms allows both the identification of dominant abiotic variables that drive ecosystem dynamics and the variables’ important thresholds. We develop a decision-tree model with rulesets that estimate three classes of sagebrush condition (i.e., sagebrush recovery, tipping point [ecosystem degradation], and stable). We find rulesets that primarily drive development of the sagebrush recovery class indicate areas of midelevations (1 602 m), warm 30-yr July temperature maximums (tmax) (30.62°C), and 30-yr March precipitation (ppt) averages equal to 26.26 mm, about 10% of the 30-yr annual ppt values. Tipping point and stable classes occur at elevations that are lower (1 505 m) and higher (1 939 m), respectively, more mesic during March and annually, and experience lower 30-yr July tmax averages. These defined variable averages can be used to understand current dynamics of sagebrush condition and to predict where future transitions may occur under novel conditions.

Introduction

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of the western United States are imperiled (Chambers and Wisdom, 2009, US Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013). Threats to the ecosystems include wildfire, climate change, development, invasion of non-native annual grasses, and expansion of conifers (Chambers et al. 2017). The threats compromise the ecosystems’ abilities to provide services like clean water and air, wildlife habitat, forage for grazing, recreational opportunities, and biodiversity (Rose et al. 2015). The amount of area sagebrush currently occupies is little more than half its historical range (Chambers et al., 2017, Davies and Bates, 2019). Euro-American migration into the western United States, and the accompanying increase in disturbances and invasion of non-native grasses, coincided with sagebrush range reduction (US Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013, Chambers et al., 2017). Disturbances (e.g., land-use change, fire, overgrazing), often multiple compounding disturbances, caused sagebrush ecosystems to transition from extended periods of relatively stable conditions where native shrub and perennial grass species dominated to ecologically degraded conditions where non-native annual grasses invaded and now dominate. To identify transitional locations, we defined criteria for three classes of sagebrush condition, developed a dataset that reflected the classes, integrated the dataset with relevant independent variables into a decision-tree model, and used the resulting model algorithms to develop spatially explicit maps of sagebrush condition class. For purposes of this study, we named the three classes sagebrush recovery, tipping point (representing ecological degradation), and stable.

Most restoration efforts in sagebrush ecosystems have been minimally effective (Blomberg et al., 2012, Svejcar et al., 2017). Therefore, recovery to a sagebrush-dominated system after a disturbance can be expensive and take many years, if recovery ever occurs (Svejcar et al. 2017), although recent studies have preliminarily shown enhanced success of sagebrush restoration (Davies et al., 2018, Germino et al., 2018, Davies and Bates, 2019). Sagebrush ecosystems vary in their abilities to resist non-native annual grass invasion and recover from disturbance. Systems with low resistance and resilience were manifested in large geographical areas of non-native annual grass stands that have increased fire frequencies and threaten adjacent healthy rangeland systems. Chambers et al. (2007) found that specific factors influenced how vulnerable a sagebrush ecosystem was to cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L) invasion, the most ubiquitous non-native annual grass in the study area. Climate, disturbance regime, the competitive abilities of the resident species, and traits of the invader were all influential factors of invasibility. Invasibility increased when resources were unused by native vegetation, such as after a fire (Rau et al., 2014, Roundy et al., 2018). Invasion also occurred when resource availability was inconsistent (Rau et al. 2014), which led to periods when resource supply exceeded the resident species’ ability to use it while invasive species’ propagule pressure existed (Davis et al. 2000). This phenomenon could have occurred in low to mid elevations of the sagebrush steppe (Chambers et al. 2014) where precipitation (ppt) exhibited high temporal variability (Bradley and Mustard 2005). In areas of relatively high perennial vegetation productivity, greater resource utilization by perennial vegetation reduced ecosystems’ invasibility (Chambers et al. 2014). How efficient an invading plant was at using resources when they become available could have determined a plant’s invasion success (Bansal et al. 2014). Greater resilience levels have been positively associated with higher ppt, greater soil resources, and higher plant productivity and linked to higher levels of resistance (Chambers et al. 2014).

The goals of this study were to identify abiotic variables that most influenced the prediction of three classes of sagebrush condition and to establish the most common environmental thresholds that characterized each class. We clarified and defined some of the abiotic characteristics and associated thresholds that influenced sagebrush ecosystems’ resilience to disturbance, invasibility to non-native annual grasses, and stability. We parameterized decision-tree software in two ways so that it generated 1) a predictive model based on a tree structure and 2) a descriptive model based on rulesets. These two models allowed us to achieve the following objectives:

  • 1)

    Develop a spatially explicit predictive map of three classes of sagebrush condition.

  • 2)

    Develop a spatially explicit ruleset map that shows where every ruleset occurred.

  • 3)

    Identify abiotic variables that most strongly drive development of the sagebrush condition class model.

  • 4)

    Establish thresholds of the most commonly used abiotic variables that delineate each sagebrush class.

Section snippets

Study Area

We focused our study on arid and semiarid sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States where annual grass invasion was likely, sagebrush was native, and wildlife and livestock graze. The study excluded areas higher than 2 250 m elevation because cheatgrass was much less likely to invade at elevations above ≈2 000 m in the northern Great Basin (Boyte et al. 2015) and because these areas were more resistant to cheatgrass invasion and more resilient to disturbances than areas at lower

Model Development

The predictive and descriptive models used independent variables to drive model development, and although the same variables were available to both models, the predictive model used all available variables, whereas the descriptive model used only some (Table 2). The two models also used variables at different frequencies. These phenomena primarily occurred because we developed the predictive model by applying few constraints to the decision trees that predicted classes, and we developed the

Discussion

Mapping areas of stability and areas of change using machine-learning algorithms allowed both the identification of dominant abiotic variables that drive ecosystem dynamics and the variables’ important thresholds. Both the predictive and descriptive models for this study were developed using multiple drivers that represented climatic, topographic, and soils data because these variables were considered among the most important drivers of invasibility of sagebrush ecosystems (Roundy et al. 2018).

Implications

The spatially explicit maps revealed that most of the study area has been altered from its native state and has never recovered. These tipping points are likely to persist in the future as natural recovery in sagebrush ecosystems is a long-term process and restoration efforts can be marginally effective. Oftentimes subsequent disturbances interrupt natural recovery and restoration projects. Some areas have recovered or have been restored as evidenced by sagebrush recovery pixels. Stable pixels

Acknowledgment

We thank Neal Pastick for his astute insights on the modeling process and his input to an earlier version of the manuscript.

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  • Current address: Yingxin Gu, I. M. Systems Group, Inc., at NOAA NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, College Park, MD 20740, USA.

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    US Geological Survey Land Change Science and National Land Imaging programs and the Bureau of Land Management funded the study. The funders had no role in the study or preparation of this manuscript.

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    Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government.

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