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Land use dynamics within the tallgrass prairie ecosystem: the case for the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)

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Abstract

Tallgrass prairie has been reduced to a fraction of its original extent, due to rapid conversion to other land use types, especially agricultural and urban. Restoration is a relatively new process to convert agricultural land back to communities dominated by native vegetation. We used a differential equations compartmental model to quantify changes between land use types, incorporating the impact of human population within the Midwestern tallgrass prairie ecosystem. We considered transitions between native prairie, prairie restored through the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), agricultural, and urban land. We used historical data to determine parameter ranges. Sensitivity analyses emphasize the importance of increasing incentives for CRP enrollment as a means to restoring the tallgrass prairie ecosystem.

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Funding

Funding was provided by the Mathematical Association of America’s National Research Experience for Undergraduates Program (MAA activity funded by NSA (grant H98230-13-1-0270) and NSF (grant DMS-1156582)). Travel support was provided by the Center for Undergraduate Research in Mathematics grant funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #DMS-0636648/#DMS-1148695.

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Correspondence to Heidi Berger.

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Highlights

• Compartment model of land use within the US tallgrass prairie ecosystem is presented.

• Data-driven model parameters match historical land use dynamics.

• Model predicts original tallgrass prairie will disappear within just a few decades.

• Model predicts Conservation Researve Program (CRP) enrollment just under 15% of orginal prairie lands.

• CRP enrollment must increase to preserve the prairie ecosystem.

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Berger, H., Meyer, C.K., Mummert, A. et al. Land use dynamics within the tallgrass prairie ecosystem: the case for the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Theor Ecol 13, 289–300 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00452-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-020-00452-z

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