Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Identifying the Annual and Seasonal Trends of Hydrological and Climatic Variables in the Indus Basin Pakistan

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The uneven hydro-climatic changes and droughts have significantly affected the socioeconomic condition of people dependent on the Indus basin, Pakistan. This study aims to examine the annual and seasonal hydro-climatic trends for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Middle Indus Basin (MIB) and Lower Indus Basin (LIB). The mean monthly data from 44 meteorological and 30 hydrological stations have been analyzed. The Mann Kendall test, Spearman’s rho test, linear trend estimation method and Van Belle and Hughes test have been used to perform analysis of hydro-climatic trends. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Sequential Mann Kendall test and rescaled range analysis have been introduced to detect the seasonal and annual drought. The results showed that significant warming has been observed throughout the Indus basin. The spring precipitation decreased significantly in the UIB with the maximum decrease of 5.3 mm/year. The streamflow of UIB has presented significant increasing trends on annual basis and spring season due to significant warming and glacier melt. The streamflow of MIB presented a significant increase in spring, and it decreased in summer, which can be related to significant warming. The annual precipitation of LIB presented significant increasing trends, and a similar trend has been observed in autumn. However, the LIB showed decreasing streamflow trends on an annual and seasonal basis which is possible due to significant warming trends and water regulation in upstream. The Hurst index value indicates that the Indus basin is expected to maintain current trends and the degree of drought is expected to increase in the future.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahmad, W., Fatima, A., Awan, U.K., Anwar, A.: Analysis of long term meteorological trends in the middle and lower Indus Basin of Pakistan—A non-parametric statistical approach. Global and Planetary Change. 122, 282–291 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ali G, Hasson S, Khan AM (2009) Climate change: implications and adaptation of water resources in Pakistan. GCISC-RR-13, global change impact studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan

  • Archer, D.R., Fowler, H.J.: Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 8, 47–61 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  • Azmat M, Wahab A, Huggel C, Qamar MU, Hussain E, Ahmad S, Waheed A (2019) Climatic and hydrological projections to changing climate under CORDEX-South Asia experiments over the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayan water towers science of the Total environment:135010

  • Bartels, R.: The rank von neumann test as a test for autocorrelation in regression models. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods. 13, 2495–2502 (1984)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bashir F, Zeng X, Gupta H, Hazenberg P (2017) A Hydrometeorological Perspective on the Karakoram Anomaly Using Unique Valley-Based Synoptic Weather Observations Geophysical Research Letters 44

  • Belle, G., Hughes, J.P.: Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality. Water resources research. 20, 127–136 (1984)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bocchiola, D., Diolaiuti, G.: Recent (1980–2009) evidence of climate change in the upper Karakoram. Pakistan Theoretical and applied climatology. 113, 611–641 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonaccorso, B., Bordi, I., Cancelliere, A., Rossi, G., Sutera, A.: Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water resources management. 17, 273–296 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • Buishand, T.A.: Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J. Hydrol. 58, 11–27 (1982)

    Google Scholar 

  • Burn, D.H., Elnur, M.A.H.: Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of hydrology. 255, 107–122 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero, T., Coscarelli, R., Ferrari, E., Mancini, M.: Trend detection of annual and seasonal rainfall in Calabria (Southern Italy). International Journal of Climatology. 31, 44–56 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cong, Z., Shahid, M., Zhang, D., Lei, H., Yang, D.: Attribution of runoff change in the alpine basin: a case study of the Heihe Upstream Basin, China. Hydrological sciences journal. 62, 1013–1028 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • de Luis M, Čufar K, Saz MA, Longares LA, Ceglar A, Kajfež-Bogataj L (2014) trends in seasonal precipitation and temperature in Slovenia during 1951–2007 Reg. Environ. Chang. 14:1801–1810 doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0365-7

  • del Rio, S., Anjum Iqbal, M., Cano-Ortiz, A., Herrero, L., Hassan, A., Penas, A.: Recent mean temperature trends in Pakistan and links with teleconnection patterns. International Journal of Climatology. 33, 277–290 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  • Eckstein D, Künzel V, Schäfer L (2017) Global Climate Risk Index 2018 Bonn, Germany: Germanwatch

  • Farr TG et al. (2007) The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Reviews of Geophysics 45 doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183

  • Faruqui N (1997) Final report to CIDA: snow and ice hydrology (Pakistan)

  • Fathian, F., Morid, S., Kahya, E.: Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 119, 443–464 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Forsythe N, Archer DR, Pritchard D, Fowler H (2019) A Hydrological Perspective on Interpretation of Available Climate Projections for the Upper Indus Basin. In: Indus River Basin. Elsevier, pp 159–179

  • Forsythe, N., Hardy, A., Fowler, H., Blenkinsop, S., Kilsby, C., Archer, D., Hashmi, M.: A detailed cloud fraction climatology of the Upper Indus Basin and its implications for near-surface air temperature. Journal of Climate. 28, 3537–3556 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Fowler, H.J., Archer, D.R.: Hydro-climatological variability in the Upper Indus Basin and implications for water resources. Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change—Impact Assessment and Decision Making. 295, 131–138 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Fowler, H.J., Archer, D.R.: Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate. 19, 4276–4293 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3860.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gan, T.Y.: Hydroclimatic trends and possible climatic warming in the Canadian prairies. Water Resour. Res. 34, 3009–3015 (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  • Gocic, M., Trajkovic, S.: Analysis of precipitation and drought data in Serbia over the period 1980–2010. J. Hydrol. 494, 32–42 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  • Han, W., Liang, C., Jiang, B., Ma, W., Zhang, Y.: Major natural disasters in China, 1985–2014: occurrence and damages. International journal of environmental research and public health. 13, 1118 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann, H., Buchanan, H.: Trends in extreme precipitation events in the Indus River Basin and flooding in Pakistan. Atmosphere-Ocean. 52, 77–91 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hasson S, Böhner J, Lucarin V (2017) Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin earth system Dynamics 8

  • He, Y., Ye, J., Yang, X.: Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of dry and wet conditions in the Huai River Basin using the standardized precipitation index. Atmospheric Research. 166, 120–128 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical Methods in Water Resources Vol 49. Elsevier

  • Hewitt, K.: Glacier change, concentration, and elevation effects in the Karakoram Himalaya, Upper Indus Basin. Mountain Research and Development. 31, 188–200 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • Huihui, Z., Na, T., Qingfeng, Z.: Spatial heterogeneity of loess contour tilled microtopographic slope in rainfall erosion. Soil Science and Plant Nutrition. 62, 409–415 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP (2010) Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers Science 328:1382–1385 doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, Climate change will affect the Asian water towers

  • Jiang, R., Gan, T.Y., Xie, J., Wang, N., Kuo, C.-C.: Historical and potential changes of precipitation and temperature of Alberta subjected to climate change impact: 1900–2100. Theoretical and applied climatology. 127, 725–739 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahya, E., Kalaycı, S.: Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology. 289, 128–144 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kang, H.M., Yusof, F.: Homogeneity tests on daily rainfall series. Int J Contemp Math Sciences. 7, 9–22 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Karmeshu N (2012) Trend detection in annual temperature & precipitation using the Mann Kendall test–a case study to assess climate change on select states in the northeastern United States

  • Khan A (2015) Hydrological modelling and their biases: constraints in policy making and sustainable water resources development under changing climate in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas brief for GSDR

  • Khan A, Richards KS, Parker GT, McRobie A, Booij MJ Impact of Warming Climate on the Monsoon and Water Resources of a Western Himalayan Watershed in the Upper Indus Basin. In: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 2015a

  • Khan A et al. Spatial and Altitudinal Variation of Precipitation and the Correction of Gridded Precipitation Datasets for the Upper Indus Basin and the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya. In: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 2015b

  • Khan, M., Daityari, S., Chakrapani, G.: Factors responsible for temporal and spatial variations in water and sediment discharge in Ramganga River, Ganga Basin. India Environmental Earth Sciences. 75, 283 (2016a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Khan, M.Y.A., Gani, K.M., Chakrapani, G.J.: Assessment of surface water quality and its spatial variation. A case study of Ramganga River, Ganga Basin, India. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 9, 28 (2016b)

    Google Scholar 

  • Khattak, M.S., Babel, M., Sharif, M.: Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan. Climate research. 46, 103–119 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • Laghari, A., Vanham, D., Rauch, W.: The Indus basin in the framework of current and future water resources management. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 16, 1063 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Langat, P.K., Kumar, L., Koech, R.: Temporal variability and trends of rainfall and Streamflow in Tana River basin, Kenya. Sustainability. 9, 1963 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • Latif, Y., Yaoming, M., Yaseen, M.: Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin. Theoretical and applied climatology. 131, 761–775 (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lu, H., Bryant, R.B., Buda, A.R., Collick, A.S., Folmar, G.J., Kleinman, P.J.: Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural, headwater watershed of Central Pennsylvania, USA. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 4, 713–731 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood, R., Jia, S.: Spatial and temporal hydro-climatic trends in the transboundary Jhelum River basin. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 8, 423–440 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood, R., Jia, S., Babel, M.: Potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Kunhar River basin, Pakistan. Water. 8, 23 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993. vol 22. American Meteorological Society Boston, MA, pp 179–183

  • Melillo JM (2014) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: the Third National Climate Assessment. Government Printing Office

  • Mukhopadhyay B, Khan A, Gautam R (2015) Rising and falling river flows: contrasting signals of climate change and glacier mass balance from the eastern and western Karakoram Hydrological Sciences Journal 60

  • Negi SS (1991) Himalayan Rivers, Lakes, and Glaciers. Indus Publishing

  • Nepal, S., Shrestha, A.B.: Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins: a review of the literature. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 31, 201–218 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ouyang, Y., Parajuli, P.B., Li, Y., Leininger, T.D., Feng, G.: Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis. Journal of environmental management. 198, 21–31 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • Oyerinde, G.T., Hountondji, F.C., Wisser, D., Diekkrüger, B., Lawin, A.E., Odofin, A.J., Afouda, A.: Hydro-climatic changes in the Niger basin and consistency of local perceptions. Regional environmental change. 15, 1627–1637 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Pettitt A (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem Applied statistics:126–135

  • Porter JR et al. (2014) Food security and food production systems

  • Qin, Y., Smith, B., Lei, Q.: Test for homogeneity in normal mixtures with unknown means and variances. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference. 139, 4165–4178 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ragettli, S., Immerzeel, W.W., Pellicciotti, F.: Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 113, 9222–9227 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606526113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Safi Ullah, Qinglong You, Waheed Ullah, Amjad Ali (2018) Observed changes in precipitation in China-Pakistan economic corridor during 1980–2016 Atmos. Res. 210

  • Salomao, L., Campanha, J., Gupta, H.: Rescaled range analysis of pluviometric records in Sao Paulo state Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 95, 83–89 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Seyam, M., Othman, F.: Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river’s annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period. Theoretical and applied climatology. 121, 71–85 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Shahid M, Cong Z, Zhang D (2017) Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan Theoretical and Applied Climatology:1–15

  • Shahid S, Wang X-J, Harun SB, Shamsudin SB, Ismail T, Minhans A (2016) Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations, possible impacts and adaptation Regional Environmental Change 16

  • Sheikh M, Manzoor N, Adnan M, Ashraf J, Khan A (2009) Climate profile and past climate changes in Pakistan, GCISC-RR-01

  • Shrestha AB, Wagle N, Rajbhandari R (2019) A Review on the Projected Changes in Climate over the Indus Basin. In: Indus River Basin. Elsevier, pp 145–158

  • Soncini, A., et al.: Future hydrological regimes in the upper Indus Basin: a case study from a high-altitude Glacierized catchment. Journal of hydrometeorology. 16, 306–326 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-14-0043.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocker T et al. (2013) IPCC, 2013: climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 1535 pp. Cambridge Univ. press, Cambridge, UK, and New York,

  • Svoboda M, Hayes M, Wood D (2012) Standardized precipitation index user guide World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland

  • Tehrani EN, Sahour H, Booij M (2018) Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran Theoretical and Applied Climatology:1–13

  • Vousoughi, F.D., Dinpashoh, Y., Aalami, M.T., Jhajharia, D.: Trend analysis of groundwater using non-parametric methods (case study: Ardabil plain). Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 27(2), 547–559 (2013)

  • Wolf AT, Natharius JA, Danielson JJ, Ward BS, Pender JK (1999) International river basins of the world International Journal of Water Resources Development 15:387–427

  • Yang, Z., Yan, Y., Liu, Q.: The relationship of streamflow-precipitation-temperature in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1961-2000. Procedia Environ. Sci. 13, 2336–2345 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B., Cavadias, G.: The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological processes. 16, 1807–1829 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeleňáková M, Vido J, Portela MM, Purcz P, Blištán P, Hlavatá H, Hluštík P (2017) Precipitation trends over Slovakia in the period 1981–2013 water 9:922

  • Zhao X, Li Z, Zhu Q (2017) Change of precipitation characteristics in the water-wind erosion crisscross region on the loess plateau, China, from 1958 to 2015 scientific reports 7:8048

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), and the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of Pakistan for providing the Hydro-climatic data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. NICE, SCEE, National University of Sciences & Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Shahid

  2. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Muhammad Shahid & Khalil Ur Rahman

Authors
  1. Muhammad Shahid
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Khalil Ur Rahman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Muhammad Shahid.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Tianjun Zhou.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 2571 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Shahid, M., Rahman, K.U. Identifying the Annual and Seasonal Trends of Hydrological and Climatic Variables in the Indus Basin Pakistan. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 57, 191–205 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-020-00194-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-020-00194-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation