Abstract
An increase in the daily rate of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been observed during days of geomagnetic storm (GS). However, the analysis of associations between the daily number of AMI and geomagnetic activity (GMA) over longer periods sometimes yields controversial results. The study aimed to detect the complex association between the daily numbers of AMI and weather, the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) phase, GMA, and solar wind variables. We used data of Kaunas population-based Ischemic Heart Disease Register of residents of Kaunas city (Lithuania) for 2000–2012. The associations between weather and space weather variables and the daily number of AMI were evaluated by applying the multivariate Poisson regression. A higher risk of AMI was positively associated with active-stormy local GMA (rate ratio (RR) = 1.06 (95% CI 1.01–1.10)), solar wind dynamic pressure with a lag of 4 days (RR = 1.02 (1.01–1.04) per 1 nPa increase), and solar wind speed with a lag of 3–7 days (RR = 1.03 (1.01–1.05) per 100 km/s increase). A positive association was found between the west QBO phase and the risk of AMI during winter (RR = 1.08 (1.01–1.16)), and a negative association was observed between them during March–November (RR = 0.93 (0.90–0.97)). The risk of AMI positively associated with the GS due to stream interaction regions with a lag of 0–2 days during the east QBO phase (RR = 1.10, p = 0.046) and was negatively associated with them during the west QBO phase (RR = 0.82, p = 0.024). These results may help understand the population’s sensitivity under different weather and space weather conditions. The QBO phase may modify the effect of GS.
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Abbreviations
- AMI:
-
acute myocardial infarction
- AO:
-
Arctic Oscillation
- AP:
-
atmospheric pressure
- BP:
-
blood pressure
- CI:
-
confidence interval
- CRT:
-
classification and regression tree
- EPP:
-
energetic particle precipitations
- GEC:
-
global electric circuit
- GMA:
-
geomagnetic activity
- GS:
-
geomagnetic storm
- ICME:
-
interplanetary coronal mass ejection
- IHD:
-
ischemic heart disease
- IMF:
-
interplanetary magnetic field
- MONICA:
-
MONItoring of trends and determinants in Cardiovascular disease
- NAO:
-
North Atlantic Oscillation
- NAOI:
-
NAO indices
- P :
-
solar wind dynamic pressure
- QBO:
-
Quasi-biennial Oscillation
- REP:
-
relativistic electron precipitation
- RH:
-
relative humidity
- RR:
-
rate ratio
- SE:
-
standard error
- SIR:
-
stream interaction region
- SPE:
-
solar proton event
- SR:
-
Schumann resonance
- SWS:
-
solar wind speed
- T :
-
air temperature
- ULF:
-
ultra-low-frequency
- VAI:
-
vorticity area index
- WS:
-
wind speed
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Many thanks go to all team members who have collected data for the Kaunas Ischemic Heart Disease Register.
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Vencloviene, J., Radisauskas, R., Vaiciulis, V. et al. Associations between Quasi-biennial Oscillation phase, solar wind, geomagnetic activity, and the incidence of acute myocardial infarction. Int J Biometeorol 64, 1207–1220 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01895-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01895-z