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An integrated approach to modeling urban growth using modified built-up area extraction technique

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Abstract

Prediction of urban growth is often crucial in urban planning decisions. In this paper, we integrated the whole process of urban growth prediction by SLEUTH simulation for Dhaka Metropolitan Development Plan area of Bangladesh for the year of 2035. SLEUTH requires a rigorous preparation of five data inputs, i.e., slope, exclusion area, urban extent, road network and hillshade. This paper improvised the preparation of urban extent input using both Landsat-8 and Landsat-5 imagery. To increase the accuracy of urban area extraction from Landsat-8 images, we integrated normalized difference vegetation index and modified normalized difference water index with normalized difference built-up index. In the case of normalized difference built-up index, we used the principal component image of band 6 and 7 of Landsat-8 to include the effects of both bands. This technique to extract the built-up area increased the overall accuracy by 17.28% point. SLEUTH model ran through three calibration phases—coarse, fine and final—and an additional calibration was run to generate the forecasting coefficients. After the calibration phase, the best fit coefficient values were determined to run the prediction mode. The predicted outputs were derived as percentiles of development probability, from which a probability of above 90% was selected in this study. The prediction reveals that the urban extent of the study area is likely to increase by 158.66% from 2015 to 2035, and the designated conservation areas will significantly decrease during the same time period. This paper will provide researchers with an accurate and structured methodology to predict urban growth.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the Department of Urban and Regional Planning of the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology for providing with the necessary logistic supports to carry out this research. We are thankful to the United State Geological Survey (USGS) website for their open access data. We also acknowledge the use of the open access data provided by the Geo-Planning for Advanced Development (GPAD).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA

    Md. T. Hossain Shubho

  2. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    I. Islam

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  1. Md. T. Hossain Shubho
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  2. I. Islam
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Correspondence to Md. T. Hossain Shubho.

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Editorial responsibility: M. Abbaspour.

Appendices

Appendix 1: Accuracy assessment of land cover mapping

Total 150 samples are taken (50 for each land cover, i.e., built-up area, vegetation, and wetland) to assess the accuracy of land cover mapping through error matrix.

See Tables 4, 5 and 6.

Table 4 Error matrix of land cover mapping following the method proposed by Bhatti and Tripathi (2014)
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Table 5 Error matrix of land cover mapping following modified method (excluding band 10, and 11)
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Table 6 Accuracy assessment of land cover mapping before and after following the modified method
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Appendix 2: Selection of coefficient for different calibrations

See Tables 7, 8 and 9.

Table 7 Coefficient selection from coarse calibration control_stats.log file
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Table 8 Coefficient selection from fine calibration control_stats.log file
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Table 9 Coefficient selection from final calibration control_stats.log file
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Hossain Shubho, M.T., Islam, I. An integrated approach to modeling urban growth using modified built-up area extraction technique. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 17, 2793–2810 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-02623-1

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