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Effect of spatially variable saturated hydraulic conductivity with non-stationary characteristics on the stability of reservoir landslides

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Abstract

Conventional landslide analyses, based on deterministic methods or simple random variable methods, cannot consider the spatial variability and the depth-dependent nature of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) in accumulative landslides. However, studies show that these conditions exist objectively and have a large impact on the seepage and deformation of landslides. Thus, the non-stationary characteristics of Ks need to be properly accounted for. In this paper, the Baishuihe landslide is taken as a case study. First, based on surface nuclear magnetic resonance (surface-NMR) technology, spatial variability and the depth-dependent nature of the Ks are obtained. Then, a non-stationary random field model is established to model the trend and fluctuating components of the Ks individually, and a deterministic model is established to model the trend of the Ks with depth. Finally, numerical simulations of the stochastic model and deterministic model under reservoir water fluctuation conditions are carried out by the non-intrusive stochastic finite element method, and the seepage-deformation and stability characteristics of the landslide are analyzed. The results show that compared with that in the deterministic model, the change in pore pressure in the stochastic model obviously lags, during reservoir water drawdown, the displacement of the trailing edge in the stochastic model is larger than that in the deterministic model, with increasing reservoir water deceleration, the hysteresis of the pore pressure in the stochastic model is more notable, and the deformation is larger and the stability is worse in the stochastic model. It is demonstrated that ignoring the spatial variability of the Ks will overestimate the stability of the landslide.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41977244, Grant No. 41572278), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1501301) and the Guizhou Science and Technology Cooperation Plan (Qian Ke He LH zi [2015]7026). The authors are grateful to the colleagues in our laboratory for their constructive comments and assistance.

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  1. Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Yang Xue, Yiping Wu, Fasheng Miao, Linwei Li, Kang Liao & Guangzhao Ou

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  1. Yang Xue
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  2. Yiping Wu
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  3. Fasheng Miao
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  4. Linwei Li
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Correspondence to Yiping Wu.

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Xue, Y., Wu, Y., Miao, F. et al. Effect of spatially variable saturated hydraulic conductivity with non-stationary characteristics on the stability of reservoir landslides. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 34, 311–329 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01777-1

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