Global change—Local values: Assessing tradeoffs for coastal ecosystem services in the face of sea level rise
Introduction
Sea level rise poses a significant threat to the built and natural environment, which leaves coastal policymakers and managers needing multi-disciplinary tools to evaluate the implications of change. There are a number of global forecasts of sea level rise and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013) projects mean sea level to increase by 0.52–0.98 m by 2100 for its most aggressive forecast. It is estimated that 1.8–7.4 million people could be at risk of dislocation in the United States alone, leading to a decrease in GDP of $70–$289 billion (Haer et al., 2013). Globally, at least 10% of the population lives within 10 m of sea level, with many of these people living in developing countries where scarce resources hinder adaptation efforts (McGranahan et al., 2007).
As sea level rises, we will likely see a change in the quality and distribution of natural assets on the coast, and subsequently, changes in the flow of the associated ecosystem goods and services. For example, accelerated sea level rise can cause wetland losses or changes to the composition of vegetation (Craft et al., 2009; Warren and Niering, 1993) with tidal marshes being particularly susceptible (Moorhead and Brinson, 1995; Park et al., 1989). The ensuing loss of marshes impacts human welfare through declines in a number of ecosystem goods and services including storm surge protection and commercial and recreational fishing (Barbier et al., 2011; Gedan et al., 2011).
For effective management, we must consider the critical link between our understanding of the effects of biophysical habitat alteration and the associated implications from changes in the flow of ecosystem services (Barbier et al., 2011; Brauman et al., 2007; Engle, 2011; Hale et al., 2014; Jenkins et al., 2010; Koch et al., 2009; Zedler and Kercher, 2005). Given the inertia built into the global climate and rising sea level (IPCC, 2013), changing coastal conditions make it necessary to develop localized adaptation strategies. Natural coastal systems around the world continue to be “squeezed” by increasing populations and built infrastructure, limiting the ability for habitats to migrate (Martínez et al., 2014; Scott et al., 2012) and sustain the structure and function that provide important ecosystem services.
There is a contrast between the static nature of the built environment and the dynamic nature of coastal environments. As sea level rises, habitats – marsh in particular – need to migrate or they become overtaken. These conflicting conditions can lead to loss and degradation of these vital habitats (Schuerch et al., 2018; Kidwell et al., 2017). While other engineered solutions may meet or exceed the protective qualities of coastal wetlands, they do so with the potential loss of other diverse ecosystem goods and services such as carbon storage, critical habitat for coastal species, nutrient uptake, and recreation.
There has been an increased call for the use of ecosystem services as a core component informing decision making (Barbier et al., 2011; CEQ, 2013; Hale et al., 2014; January-Bevers et al., 2015; MEA, 2005; NSTC, 2015; OMB, 2015; Turner and Daily, 2008). Ecosystem service assessment necessitates collaboration among numerous disciplines in the natural and social sciences. Application relies on both extensive natural and social science research as well as input from communities of stakeholders (Adger, 2000; Daily, 1997; Folke et al., 2002; Yoskowitz and Russell, 2015). With this study we present a unique approach for ecosystem service valuation and discuss the challenges practitioners face in applying these methods for integrated ecosystem services assessment.
Valuation provides a common unit of ecosystem goods and services (monetary or otherwise) to help decision-makers understand the trade-offs involved in altering habitats, naturally or otherwise (National Research Council, 2013). It is not the only piece of information that should be used in management actions but can add an important perspective. An extensive literature exists on the valuing of ecosystems which are a key component of a holistic ecosystem service assessment (Bateman et al. 2011). For example, the valuation literature on wetlands has been synthesized in numerous meta-analyses (Woodward and Wu, 2001; Brander et al., 2006; Ghermandi et al., 2010; Brander et al., 2012; Chaikumbung et al., 2016), demonstrating significant willingness-to-pay for protection and enhancement of these habitats. Studies have also used a variety of economic approaches, such as modern portfolio theory (Runting et al., 2018) and benefit transfer (Feagin et al., 2010), to provide tools for the conservation of coastal wetlands under various sea level rise scenarios. A handful of studies have used a stated preference method called a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to investigate the implications of sea level rise, including topics such as population relocation/retreat (Kloos and Baumert, 2015; Dachary-Bernard and Rey-Valette, 2019), preferences for risk adaptation mitigation of increased flood risks (Brouwer and Schaafsma, 2013), and preferences for coastal recreation and biodiversity (Remoundou et al., 2015). Johnston and Abdulrahman (2017) use a DCE to study preferences for coastal flood adaptation, including wetlands, over a 10-year time horizon in Connecticut and find that respondents are willing-to-pay significant amounts to reverse wetland losses.
There has been a scarcity of studies using the robust approach of DCEs that value individuals’ optimal level of wetland conservation given a mid-term sea level rise scenario (25+ years). We are also unaware of a choice experiment that includes wetlands and adjacent uplands, which can be available for wetland migration in response to sea level rise.
In this study, we apply a DCE in order to investigate Houston-Galveston Bay regional residents’ willingness-to-pay for conserving and restoring coastal habitat under threat from future sea level rise. Respondents are given a current, status quo estimate of sea level rise for the loss of freshwater marsh and undeveloped upland in the Galveston Bay region by 2050. The DCE uses an experimental design to provide respondents with alternative management scenarios which allow them to trade-off increased costs to their household budgets for conserved and restored coastal freshwater wetlands and undeveloped uplands. This data allows us to estimate respondents’ preferences for coastal conservation in the face of rising sea levels. As a whole, our approach highlights the public's preferences for adaptation to climate risks while highlighting the existing challenges of managing complex environmental systems, including ecosystem migration, over longer time horizons. This type of information is critical for policy-maker and resource managers because without it decisions would be incomplete and potentially inefficient.
Section snippets
Survey development
Survey administration and development involved the design, testing, and implementation of our survey instrument. The survey instrument was first developed by the project team, followed by feedback from focus groups and a short duration pilot study.
The Coastal and Marine Geospatial Lab at the Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi generated forecasts of coastal habitat extent under sea level rise scenarios in the Galveston Bay estuary for the year 2050. The scenarios were
Econometric framework
Our application uses the Random Utility Model (RUM) (McFadden, 1974) as the theoretical basis for the DCE. This behavioral model assumes individuals choose management actions, or inaction in the case of the status quo, that yield the highest level of utility. The utility (Unit) a respondent (n) derives from a choice (i) in a choice situation (t) can be decomposed, such thatwhere Vnit is the deterministic portion of utility, linked to explanatory variables such that ,
Conclusions
Valuation plays a key role in multidisciplinary ecosystem service assessments by providing a tool for connecting ecosystem structure, function, and processes to human welfare (Bateman et al. 2011). As global environmental change influences both built and natural environments, decision makers will need a number of tools to make informed and effective decisions. The change in ecosystem service flows will necessitate local and regional adaptation. Ecosystem service assessments can help guide
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Paul Hindsley: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. David Yoskowitz: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
This work was funded in part by the Houston Endowment. For Dr. David Yoskowitz: This publication was made possible by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Education Educational Partnership Program award (NA16SEC4810009). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the award recipient and do not necessarily represent the official views of the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The authors whose names are listed immediately
Acknowledgement
We would like to acknowledge Carlota Santos and the Coastal and Marine Geospatial Lab at the Harte Research Institute. This work was funded in part by the Houston Endowment. For Yoskowitz: This publication was made possible by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Education Educational Partnership Program award (NA16SEC4810009). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the award recipient and do not necessarily represent the official views of the U.S. Department of
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2024, Science of the Total EnvironmentSeawall-induced impacts on large river delta wetlands and blue carbon storage under sea level rise
2023, Science of the Total EnvironmentCitation Excerpt :According to the CBCs pools in (Table S1), the land-use types were used as the spatial units to create the distribution maps of carbon density, and the total CBCs were calculated by multiplying the carbon density of the land-use types by their areas in the YRD. Driving processes in our study refer to natural and anthropogenic processes that might determine the transformation from coastal wetland types to other land-use types, such as inundation, accretion, erosion, overwash, saturation, salinization, ecological succession (Hindsley and Yoskowitz, 2020; Martinez et al., 2014), which could generally be identified by the shoreline dynamics and related wetland conversions and land use transformations (Ma et al., 2019a; Kirwan and Megonigal, 2013; Martinez et al., 2014) (Table 2). The land use transformation processes were simulated and characterized spatial explicitly by GIS-based SLAMM modeling.
Spatial-temporal changes in ecosystem services and social-ecological drivers in a typical coastal tourism city: A case study of Sanya, China
2022, Ecological IndicatorsCitation Excerpt :Research on ecosystem services has focused on the connotation (Costanza, 2005), classification (Fisher et al., 2009), spatiotemporal evolution (Wang et al., 2014), value evaluation (Wang et al., 2016) spatial flow (Hao et al., 2019), trade-off/synergy relationships (Feng et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2018; Wang and Dai, 2020), supply–demand relationships (Morri et al., 2014), integration optimization (Keller et al., 2015; Mastrangelo et al., 2014) and other aspects of ecosystem services. Research gradually developed from a single scale to a multiscale perspective, mainly extending from the macro scale (global, national), medium scale (provincial), micro scale (city, county) to a specific study site scale (village, town, settlement, community, green land, etc.) (Hindsley and Yoskowitz,2020). The value equivalent method (Potter et al., 1993), material quality method (Xu et al., 2019), and energy analysis method (Peters et al., 2019) were the three common methods used to measure and evaluate ecosystem services.
Public's preference for the treatment of Ulva prolifera blooms: A choice experiment study in China
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