Abstract
Based on the 1.5 °C temperature control target of the Paris Agreement, the two scenarios in this paper which are 1.5 degree scenario (1.5DS) and 2 degree scenario (2DS) aim to analyze the CO2 emission space and power transition path constrains of the power sector in China. This paper then discusses the possible scenarios of 1.5DS and 2DS power planning schemes in 2050. The conclusions are as follows: (1) China’s electricity consumption saturation period will occur during the period of 2030–2040; (2) Driven by technology learning, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of wind power will have obvious competitive advantages in 2020 and so does solar power in 2030. However, due to the impact of additional grid connection costs of new energy power, economic advantages can only be obtained in the power market after at least 10 years; (3) The installed capacity of coal power in 1.5DS and 2DS will peak in 2020, and CO2 emissions will also peak in 2020, then it shows a trend of decreasing year by year. However, it should be noted that 1.5DS is with possibilities, but with enormous challenges as the same time; (4) Accelerating the green and low carbon transition of power sector must be gradually improving the power market and electricity price mechanism, providing a good transition environment for the power sector, developing emerging power technology, and promoting multi-energy complementary systems.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Branker K, Pathak MJM, Pearce JM (2011) A review of solar photovoltaic levelized cost of electricity. Renew Sust Energ Rev 15:4470–4482
Chalvatzis K-J, Malekpoor H, Mishra N et al (2019) Sustainable resource allocation for power generation: the role of big data in enabling interindustry architectural innovation. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 144:381–393
Chen J-W, Chen X-S, Hu M (2015) China’s low carbon economy prospects – China’s measures to reduce carbon emissions. Sino Global Energy 20(4):1–15
China coal control project 1.5 degree energy scenario research group (2018) Energy scenario analysis and feasibility under 1.5 ° temperature control. Natural Resources Defense Council, Beijing
China Industry Information (CII) (2017). 2017 Edition of China Electric Vehicle Market Thematic Research Analysis and Development Trend Forecast Report. http://www.chyxx.com/industry/201712/590491.html. Accessed 7 Oct 2019
China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute. World and China Energy Outlook in 2050. CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, Beijing, 2016
Cory K, Schwabe P (2010) Wind Levelized Cost of Energy: A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variables. National Renewable Energy Lab Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Golden
Cui X-Q, Wang K, Zou J (2016) Impact of 2°C and 1.5°C target to INDC and long-term emissions pathway of China. China Popul Resour Environ 26(12):1–7
Ding S-T, Zhang M, Song Y (2019) Exploring China’s carbon emissions peak for different carbon tax scenarios. Energy Policy 129:1245–1252
Duan H-B, Mo J-L, Fan Y et al (2018) Achieving China’s energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties. Energy Econ 70:45–60
Duan H, Zhang G, Wang S et al (2019) Robust climate change research: a review on multi-model analysis. Environ Res Lett 14(3)
Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., et al. (2014) IPCC,2014:climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Fan J-L, Xu M, Yang L, Zhang X, Li F-G (2019) How can carbon capture utilization and storage be incentivized in China? A perspective based on the 45Q tax credit provisions. Energy Policy, 132
Gambhir A, Rogelj J, Luderer G, Few S, Napp T (2019) Energy system changes in 1.5 °C, well below 2 °C and 2 °C scenarios. Energ Strat Rev 23:69–80
Glynn J, Gargiulo M, Chiodi A et al (2019) Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris agreement. Clim Pol 19(1):30–42
He J-K (2018) Situation of global climate governance and China’s leading role after the Paris agreement. Chin J Environ Manag 10(01):9–14
Hulme M (2016) 1.5°C and climate research after the Paris agreement. Nat Clim Chang 6:222–224
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
International Energy Agency (2016). Key World Energy Statistics 2016; IEA: Paris, France
Jiang K-J, He C-M, Zhuang X et al (2016) Scenario and feasibility study for peaking CO2 emission from energy activities in China. Clim Chang Res 12(03):167–171
Jiang K-J, He C-M, Dai H-C, Liu J, Xu X-Y (2018) Emission scenario analysis for China under the global 1.5 degrees C target. Carbon Manag 9(5):481–491
Jordan A, Rayner T, Schroeder H et al (2013) Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options. Clim Pol 13(6):751–769
Li H-M, Zhao X-F, Wu T et al (2018) The consistency of China’s energy statistics and its implications for climate policy. J Clean Prod 199:27–35
Ma D, Chen W-Y (2016) Analysis of China’s 2030 carbon emission peak level and peak path. China Population,Resources and Environment 26(S1):1–4
Marcucci A, Kypreos S, Panos E (2017) The road to achieving the long-term Paris targets: energy transition and the role of direct air capture. Clim Chang 144(2):181–193
Marcucci A, Panos E, Kypreos S, Fragkos P (2019) Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 °C climate target. Appl Energy 239:239–251
Napp TA, Few S, Sood A et al (2019) The role of advanced demand-sector technologies and energy demand reduction in achieving ambitious carbon budgets. Appl Energy 238:351–367
National Energy Administration (NEA) (2019). The total electricity consumption increased by 8.5% year-on-year in 2018. http://shoudian.bjx.com.cn/html/20190121/957870.shtml. Accessed 7 Oct 2019
National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL) (2013). Simple levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculator documentation. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/lcoe_documentation.html. Accessed 7 Oct 2019
Ning Y-D, Chen K-K, Zhang B-Y et al (2019) Energy conservation and emission reduction path selection in China: a simulation based on bi-level multi-objective optimization model. Energy Policy
Niu D-X, Wang K-K, Wu J et al (2020) Can China achieve its 2030 carbon emissions commitment? Scenario analysis based on an improved general regression neural network. J Clean Prod 243:118558
Rogelj J, Luderer G, Pietzcker RC et al (2015) Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C. Nat Clim Chang 5(6):519–527
Song C-F, Liu Q-L, Qi Y, et al. (2019) Absorption-microalgae hybrid CO 2 capture and biotransformation strategy—a review. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88
Vinca A, Rottoli M, Marangoni G, Tavoni M (2018) The role of carbon capture and storage electricity in attaining 1.5 and 2 degrees C. Int J Greenhouse Gas Control 78:148–159
Working group on the third comprehensive assessment of climate change (2015) Analysis and interpretation forthe third National Climate Assessment. Science Press, Beijing
Xiao X-J, Jiang K-J (2018) China’s nuclear power under the global 1.5 °C target: preliminary feasibility study and prospects. Adv Clim Chang Res 9(2):138–143
Xu Y, Yuan J-H, Xu H-M (2017) Dynamic integrated resource strategic planning model: a case study of China’s power sector planning into 2050. Sustainability 9(7):1177
Yu S-W, Zheng S-H, Li X (2018) The achievement of the carbon emissions peak in China: the role of energy consumption structure optimization. Energy Econ 74:693–707
Zhang Y-X, Huang L, Zhou B-T, Xu Y, Chao Q-C (2017) Analysis of 1.5 °C global temperature control target. Climate Change Research 13(4):299–305
Acknowledgments
The authors would also like to acknowledge great thanks to anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments which largely improve the academic quality of this paper. The usual caveats apply.
Funding
The authors received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71673085), Program for the Innovative Talents of Higher Education Institutions of Shanxi (PTIT), and the General Project of Shanxi Soft Science Research Program (2017041003-5).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Responsible editor: Muhammad Shahbaz
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Xu, Y., Yang, K. & Yuan, J. China’s power transition under the global 1.5 °C target: preliminary feasibility study and prospect. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 15113–15129 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08085-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08085-9