Economically Sustainable Growth of Perovskite Photovoltaics Manufacturing

Highlights

• Flexible perovskite modules manufactured for 3.3–0.53 $/W in a 0.3–1,000 MW/yr range

• Minimum investment of >$1 billion required for profitability when selling at $0.40/W

• Existing silicon manufacturer would grow at a faster rate by co-investing in tandems

• Technoeconomic modeling of energy technology versus scale to establish route to market

Summary

The significant capital expense of photovoltaics manufacturing has made it difficult for new cell and module technologies to enter the market. We present two technoeconomic models that analyze the sustainable growth of perovskite manufacturing for an R2R single-junction technology and a perovskite-silicon tandem module, focusing on the impacts of economies of scale and average selling price on profitability. We establish a cost range of $3.30/W to $0.53/W for flexible modules manufactured in factory sizes ranging from 0.3 MW/year to 1 GW/year. In addition, we model the cost to manufacture a tandem module consisting of a single-junction perovskite cell stacked in 4-terminal configuration onto a silicon cell and show how an existing manufacturer can grow at a faster rate by co-investing in tandems. Our analyses highlight potential routes to market for perovskite photovoltaics and the possibility to sustainably grow a photovoltaics manufacturing company even in markets with higher labor rates.