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Long-period Variations in Extreme Temperature Statistics in Russia as Linked to the Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming

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Abstract

Some aspects of long-term variability of temperature extremes on the territory of Russia are considered using average daily surface air temperature data from 367 weather stations over the period of 1960-2016. The number of days with extremely high summer temperature has increased monotonously (with strong peaks in some years) in the European part of Russia since the 1980s; in the Asian part of Russia this growth stopped in the early 2000s. The number of cold extremes has decreased. Changes in winter mainly agree with the general warming, but in the Asian part of Russia the warming trend is superimposed by about 40-year oscillations resembling variations in the leading atmospheric circulation modes: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian pattern. The statistics of indices of extremes in the opposite phases of the modes revealed a strong response in winter, which explains qualitatively the features of long-term variations in temperature extremes. A difference in composites between the positive and negative NAO phases is mostly negative for cold extremes and positive for warm ones. The response to the Scandinavian mode is opposite. In summer, the response is generally weak, but in the west of the European part of Russia the heat wave duration is strongly linked to variations in the Scandinavian pattern.

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Funding

The authors thank for the support the following research programs and projects where different sections of the present paper were performed:

—the Russian Science Foundation: grant 19-17-00242 “Weather and Climate Hazards on the Territory of Russia under Global Climate Change;”

—themes 1.3.1.1 “Monitoring of Climate in the Russian Federation, Its Regions, and Federal Districts (Subjects of the Russian Federation”) and 1.3.1.3 “Development of the Set of Specialized Climatic Databases on the State of the Main Components of the Climate System for Studying Climate and Its Change, for Providing Services for All User’s Groups. Development of Integrated Methods for the Quality Control and Improvement and Uniformity of Climate Data” of the Target Research and Development Program “Research, Development, and Other Works for State Needs in the Area of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring” for 2017-2019 approved by the Roshydromet order No. 615 on December 28, 2016

—the fundamental research on the theme “Solution to Fundamental Problems of Terrestrial Climate System Analysis and Prediction” (No. 0148-2019-0009); the Program of Fundamental Research of State Academies of Sciences for 2013-2020, Section 9 “Earth Sciences,” Subsection 135 “Physical and Chemical Processes in the Atmosphere Including the Ionosphere and Magnetosphere of the Earth, in the Cryosphere and on the Earth Surface, Formation Mechanisms and Modern Changes in Climate, Landscapes, Glaciation, and Permafrost.”

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258, Russia

    M. Yu. Bardin & T. V. Platova

  2. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetnyi per. 29, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    M. Yu. Bardin & T. V. Platova

  3. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    M. Yu. Bardin

Authors
  1. M. Yu. Bardin
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  2. T. V. Platova
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Correspondence to M. Yu. Bardin.

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Russian Text © The Author(s), 2019, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2019, No. 12, pp. 5–19.

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Bardin, M.Y., Platova, T.V. Long-period Variations in Extreme Temperature Statistics in Russia as Linked to the Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 44, 791–801 (2019). https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837391912001X

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837391912001X

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