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On the Variability of Cold Wave Episodes Over Northwest India Using an NGFS Retrospective Analysis

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Abstract

A retrospective analysis of 17 years of NCMRWF Global Forecast System (NGFS) data was conducted to understand the state and variability of cold wave episodes over northwest India. During the 2000–2016 period, a total of 21 cold wave episodes (202 cold nights) were detected, out of which 5 severe cold episodes (63 cold nights) were registered. The 10 (6) episodes occurred during La Niña (El Niño) years suggesting that both phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation provide a favourable background for the occurrence of cold waves. The average duration of a cold wave episode was ~ 9.6 days, with the longest (shortest) episode, seen in the year 2008 (2006), lasting for 26 (6) consecutive days. The average duration of a severe cold wave episode is ≈ 4 days longer than that of a normal cold wave. In the year 2005, both the earliest (11 December) and latest (16 February) onsets of cold waves were seen. The omnipresence of intense Siberian anticyclone and the presence of western disturbance brought cold winds to the study region. Also, temperature advection and geo-potential height anomalies play vital roles in the maintenance of cold waves. The cold waves exhibit a significant intra-annual variability over northwest India. The intensity of cold waves has shown an increase of 0.11 °C per cold episode.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions and comments, which helps in improving the manuscript. We also thank Dr. E. N. Rajagopal (Head, NCMRWF) for his valuable encouragement.

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  1. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), MoES, A-50, Institutional Area, Sector-62, Noida, UP, 201309, India

    A. Sandeep & V. S. Prasad

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  1. A. Sandeep
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  2. V. S. Prasad
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Sandeep, A., Prasad, V.S. On the Variability of Cold Wave Episodes Over Northwest India Using an NGFS Retrospective Analysis. Pure Appl. Geophys. 177, 1157–1166 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02335-9

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