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Statistical Method of Forecasting of Seasonal Precipitation over the Northwest Himalayas: North Atlantic Oscillation as Precursor

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Abstract

Dynamical and Statistical models are operationally used by Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) for winter precipitation forecasting over the Northwest Himalayas (NWH). In this paper, a statistical regression model developed for seasonal (December–April) precipitation forecast over Northwest Himalaya is discussed. After carrying out the analysis of various atmospheric parameters that affect the winter precipitation over the NWH two parameters are selected such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over specific areas of North Atlantic Ocean for the development of statistical regression model. A set of 27 years (1990–1991 to 2016–2017) of observed precipitation data and parameters (NAO and OLR) are utilized. Out of 27 years of data, first 20 years (1990–1991 to 2009–2010) are used for the development of regression model and remaining 7 years (2010–2011 to 2016–2017) are used for the validation purpose. Precipitation over NWH mainly associated with Western Disturbances (WDs) and the results of the present study reveal that NAO during SON has negative relationship with WDs and also with the winter precipitation over same region. Quantitative validation of the multiple regression model, result shows good Skill Score and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) which is 0.79 and 0.45 respectively and BIAS − 0.92.

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Acknowledgements

Authors are thankful to the technical staff of Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), India for collecting the data in extreme weather conditions from rugged mountainous terrain of Northwest Himalaya.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biotechnology, Chandigarh College of Technology, Punjab, 140307, India

    Usha Devi

  2. Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Research and Development Centre, Chandigarh, 160036, India

    M. S. Shekhar

  3. Department of Geophysics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221005, India

    G. P. Singh

  4. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India

    S. K. Dash

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  1. Usha Devi
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  3. G. P. Singh
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  4. S. K. Dash
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Correspondence to Usha Devi.

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Devi, U., Shekhar, M.S., Singh, G.P. et al. Statistical Method of Forecasting of Seasonal Precipitation over the Northwest Himalayas: North Atlantic Oscillation as Precursor. Pure Appl. Geophys. 177, 3501–3511 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02409-8

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