Using farmer-based metrics to analyze the amount, seasonality, variability and spatial patterns of rainfall amidst climate change in southern Ethiopia

Highlights

• Smallholder farmer experiences and climate science often diverge.

• We develop new metrics motivated by research with smallholders.

• New metrics and analyses can bridge some divergences.

• Methods developed are relevant for communicating climate science with farmers.

Abstract

Climate change will likely impact rainfall characteristics in particular locations; the amount, seasonality, variability and spatial patterns. In developing countries, this presents challenges for rural smallholder farmers as their livelihoods are largely based on rain-fed practices. Changes in climate patterns could increase farmers' vulnerability and the need for intervention. In this paper, we develop new metrics of analysis motivated by qualitative research with smallholder farmers. Previous research found that farmers' understanding of historical rainfall change is accurate, yet diverge from some research studies. We analyze meteorological station rainfall data using metrics that are familiar to smallholders. Farmers' perceptions of rainfall in southern Ethiopia were explored through interviews conducted in three communities. Our findings identified some forms of convergence, as well as divergence, in farmers' perception of rainfall trends and meteorological station data results. In asking the question ‘Why do data based on farmer experiences of rainfall variability differ from meteorological station data?’, we show that using existing data and applying farmer-influenced metrics can improve the information shared with farmers. We argue that, under further climate change, it will be increasingly important to convey meteorological information to farmers in ways that are relevant to them and their agricultural livelihoods.

Introduction

Climate change has affected various physical characteristics of rainfall (e.g. rainfall amounts), but the nature and significance of these changes vary regionally. Generally, dry land areas have become drier; some wet areas have become wetter; and yet other areas receive less overall rain but experience more intense rainfall events (Trenberth, 2011). In addition to this complexity in the changing physical characteristics of rainfall, the impacts and perceptions of these changes vary for those whose livelihood is intimately linked to rainfall.

There is a commonly identified divergence, or mismatch, in perceptions of changes in rainfall between scientists and farmers (Chambers, 1997). Gill (1991) sought to better understand why farmers' experiences of rainfall differed from the results of contemporary forms of meteorological analysis of rainfall data. In seeking to resolve that conundrum, Gill (1991) focused upon the definition of rainfall terms (e.g. what counts as a rainy day and how that is calculated), as well as one period of time wherein discrepancies existed. Gill (1991) found the apparent disconnect laid not with rainfall events and data but with methods and scales of analysis. Chambers (1997: 146) subsequently argued that farmers’ rainfall assessments of rainfall trends over time tended to be more accurate than averaged meteorological station data. The differences, Chambers (1997: 31) suggested, was that scientists utilized “concepts, values, methods and behavior” rooted in training that approached questions much differently than farmers did. Divergent understandings of rainfall was not one of a different reality, but of different means to categorize and analyze that reality.

The apparent mismatch between farmers' experiences of rainfall and the analysis of meteorological station data is particularly important to understand in contexts of smallscale, rain-fed agricultural systems. While the Sustainable Development Agenda has ambitious goals to eliminate poverty and ensure food security for all, a countervailing force is climate change, which has the potential to push 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, particularly those whose livelihoods are reliant upon rainfall in arid and semi-arid areas of the world (Adams et al., 2013; Hallegatte et al., 2016). The majority of Ethiopians live in this precarious space. More than 80% of the nation's approximate population of 105 million are rural dwellers who are reliant upon rainfall for their livelihoods (Loening et al., 2009; World Bank, 2019).

This paper draws upon farmers' perceptions of rainfall trends and utilizes metrics influenced by qualitative data collected with smallholder farmers to pilot different analyses of meteorological station data in southern Ethiopia's Wolaita Zone. In so doing, we seek to identify convergence, or lack thereof, in understandings of rainfall changes. This paper explores meteorological and farmer discourses using various rainfall metrics, assessing whether any determined divergent discourses can be aligned. Rather than assume discrepancies between smallholder farmer experiences and meteorological data are due to poor perceptions, we assume the differences are due to analytical approaches.

We do not set out to prove or disprove scientists' or farmers' understandings of rainfall change. Rather, we aim to explore different approaches to analyzing meteorological station rainfall data, using an analysis approach based upon metrics that are influenced by smallholder farmers. Thus, we do not dispute the findings in the literature, but to complement and expand upon them. This paper raises questions about how research is done; specifically the determination of metrics and analysis approaches. This paper contributes knowledge on farmers' experiences in assessing rainfall, which differs from what has previously been reported in the literature on rainfall studies in Ethiopia. The following section provides context on the so-called scientist-farmer divide (we do not label the meteorological analysis common in the literature as ‘scientific’ and farmer analysis as not; farmers use evidence in their assessments – in attempting to avoid these labels, we opt for descriptions of the methods utilized). That context is followed by a review of studies on rainfall in Ethiopia. In the methods section, we present the qualitative background, quantitative analysis approach and the study area, followed by the findings and a discussion of the results.