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Direct and indirect effects of temperature and prey abundance on bald eagle reproductive dynamics

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Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms by which populations are regulated is critical for predicting the effects of large-scale perturbations. While discrete mortality events provide clear evidence of direct impacts, indirect pathways are more difficult to assess but may play important roles in population and ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use multi-state occupancy models to analyze a long-term dataset on nesting bald eagles in south-central Alaska with the goal of identifying both direct and indirect mechanisms influencing reproductive output in this apex predator. We found that the probabilities of both nest occupancy and success were higher in the portion of the study area where water turbidity was low, supporting the hypothesis that access to aquatic prey is a critical factor limiting the reproductive output of eagles in this system. As expected, nest success was also positively related to salmon abundance; however, the negative effect of spring warmth suggested that access to salmon resources is indirectly diminished in warm springs as a consequence of increased glacial melt. Together, these findings reveal complex interrelationships between a critical prey resource and large-scale weather and climate processes which likely alter the accessibility of resources rather than directly affecting resource abundance. While important for understanding bald eagle reproductive dynamics in this system specifically, our results have broader implications that suggest complex interrelationships among system components.

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Acknowledgements

We thank pilots T. Betts, L. Ellis, J. Lee, and M. Meekin for many hours of safe flight. M. Reid conducted initial surveys and C. Ketron conducted the 2018 survey. M. MacCluskie, C. McIntyre, B. Steidl, and 1 anonymous reviewer provided constructive comments on an earlier draft. Funding for this project was provided by the U.S. National Park Service through the Central Alaska Network and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve. Any mention of trade or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. government.

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  1. Tammy L. Wilson

    Present address: Department of Natural Resource Management, South Dakota State University, 1390 College Ave, Box 2140B, Brookings, SD, 57007, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Central Alaska Network, U.S. National Park Service, 4175 Geist Road, Fairbanks, AK, 99709, USA

    Joshua H. Schmidt

  2. Wrangell St. Elias National Park and Preserve, U.S. National Park Service, PO Box 439, Copper Center, AK, 99573, USA

    Judy Putera

  3. Southwest Alaska Network, U.S. National Park Service, 240 W. 5th Avenue, Anchorage, AK, 99501, USA

    Tammy L. Wilson

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  1. Joshua H. Schmidt
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JP collected the bald eagle data and JHS analyzed the data. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the development of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Joshua H. Schmidt.

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Communicated by Mathew Samuel Crowther.

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Schmidt, J.H., Putera, J. & Wilson, T.L. Direct and indirect effects of temperature and prey abundance on bald eagle reproductive dynamics. Oecologia 192, 391–401 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-019-04578-8

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