Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Evacuees and Migrants Exhibit Different Migration Systems After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

Research on the destinations of environmentally induced migrants has found simultaneous migration to both nearby and long-distance destinations, most likely caused by the comingling of evacuee and permanent migrant data. Using a unique data set of separate evacuee and migration destinations, we compare and contrast the pre-, peri-, and post-disaster migration systems of permanent migrants and temporary evacuees of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. We construct and compare prefecture-to-prefecture migration matrices for Japanese prefectures to investigate the similarity of migration systems. We find evidence supporting the presence of two separate migration systems—one for evacuees, who seem to emphasize short distance migration, and one for more permanent migrants, who emphasize migration to destinations with preexisting ties. Additionally, our results show that permanent migration in the peri- and post-periods is largely identical to the preexisting migration system. Our results demonstrate stability in migration systems concerning migration after a major environmental event.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Data Availability

All data and code necessary to reproduce the reported results are publicly available in a replication repository (https://osf.io/jvund/?view_only=3982ed9f1ea64c8cbb6c27b2683c9a79).

Notes

  1. Findlay’s six principles are (1) most migrants want to stay in their current place of residence; (2) people tend to move over short distances rather than longer distances; (3) people do not always move to the most attractive destination but live/work nearer rather than farther; (4) attraction to destinations can be interpreted as increased income or returns to human capital; (5) destination selection is shaped by preexisting social and cultural connections; and (6) destinations can be viewed as attractive because of the social and cultural capital they offer.

  2. http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/topics/main-cat2/sub-cat2-1/201907_hinansha_suii.pdf.

References

  • Aoki, N. (2016). Adaptive governance for resilience in the wake of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Habitat International, 52, 20–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R. (2011). Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478, 447–449.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borts, G. H., & Stein, J. L. (1964). Economic growth in a free market. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Branigan, T. (2011, March 13). Earthquake and tsunami “Japan’s worst crisis since second world war.” The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/13/japan-crisis-worst-since-second-world-war

  • Call, M. A., Gray, C., Yunus, M., & Emch, M. (2017). Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh. Global Environmental Change, 46, 157–165.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crimella, C., & Dagnan, C.-S. (2011). The 11 March triple disaster in Japan. In F. Gemenne, P. Brücker, & D. Ionesco (Eds.), The state of environmental migration (pp. 35–46). Paris, France: Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales.

    Google Scholar 

  • Curtis, K. J., Fussell, E., & DeWaard, J. (2015). Recovery migration after hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial concentration and intensification in the migration system. Demography, 52, 1269–1293.

    Google Scholar 

  • Curtis, K. J., & Schneider, A. (2011). Understanding the demographic implications of climate change: Estimates of localized population predictions under future scenarios of sea-level rise. Population and Environment, 33, 28–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, K. F., Bhattachan, A., D’Odorico, P., & Suweis, S. (2018). A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: Examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6), 064030. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeWaard, J., Kim, K., & Raymer, J. (2012). Migration systems in Europe: Evidence from harmonized flow data. Demography, 49, 1307–1333.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drost, H.-G. (2018). Philentropy: Similarity and distance quantification between probability functions (R package version 0.2.0) [Data set]. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=philentropy

  • Fawcett, J. T. (1989). Networks, linkages, and migration systems. International Migration Review, 23, 671–680.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feng, S., Krueger, A. B., & Oppenheimer, M. (2010). Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 14257–14262.

    Google Scholar 

  • Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D., Mach, K., Mastrandrea, M., Bilir, T., . . . White, L. L. (Eds.). (2014). Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects (Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/

  • Findlay, A. M. (2011). Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 21, S50–S58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frey, W., Singer, A., & Park, D. (2007). Resettling New Orleans: The first full picture from the census (Special Analysis in Metropolitan Policy). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fussell, E., Curtis, K. J., & DeWaard, J. (2014). Recovery migration to the city of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A migration systems approach. Population and Environment, 35, 305–322.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fussell, E., & Elliott, J. R. (2009). Introduction: Social organization of demographic responses to disaster: Studying population-environment interactions in the case of Hurricane Katrina. Organization & Environment, 22, 379–394.

  • Fussell, E., Sastry, N., & VanLandingham, M. (2010). Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Population and Environment, 31, 20–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Graves, P. E. (1980). Migration and climate. Journal of Regional Science, 20, 227–237.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C., & Bilsborrow, R. (2013). Environmental influences on human migration in rural Ecuador. Demography, 50, 1217–1241.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gray, C., & Wise, E. (2016). Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration. Climatic Change, 135, 555–568.

    Google Scholar 

  • Groen, J., & Polivka, A. (2010). Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas. Demography, 47, 821–844.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gutmann, M. P., & Field, V. (2010). Katrina in historical context: Environment and migration in the U.S. Population and Environment, 31, 3–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hasegawa, R. (2013). Disaster evacuation from Japan’s 2011 tsunami disaster and the Fukushima nuclear accident (Studies No. 05/13). Paris, France: Institut du developpement durable et des relations internationales.

  • Hassani-Mahmooei, B., & Parris, B. W. (2012). Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: An agent-based model. Environment and Development Economics, 17, 763–780.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hauer, M. E. (2017). Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape. Nature Climate Change, 7, 321–325.

    Google Scholar 

  • Haug, S. (2008). Migration networks and migration decision-making. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 34, 585–605.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hellinger, E. (1909). Neue begründung der theorie quadratischer formen von unendlichvielen veränderlichen [New foundation of the theory of quadratic forms of infinite variables]. Journal für die reine und angewandte Mathematik, 136, 210–271. Retrieved from http://eudml.org/doc/149313

    Google Scholar 

  • Hori, M., Schafer, M. J., & Bowman, D. J. (2009). Displacement dynamics in southern Louisiana after hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Population Research and Policy Review, 28, 45–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hugo, G. (2008). Migration, development and environment (MRS No. 35). Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration.

  • Hugo, G. (2011). Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change. Global Environmental Change, 215, 521–533.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hunter, L. M., Luna, J. K., & Norton, R. M. (2015). Environmental dimensions of migration. Annual Review of Sociology, 41, 377–397.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hunter, L. M., Murray, S., & Riosmena, F. (2013). Rainfall patterns and U.S. migration from rural Mexico. International Migration Review, 47, 874–909.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Medical Corps. (2011). Fukushima Prefecture fact sheet. Los Angeles, CA: International Medical Corps.

    Google Scholar 

  • Inui, Y. (2016). Aid to evacuees by local governments nationwide and local governments affected by the disaster. Journal of Architecture and Planning (Transactions of AIJ), 81, 1851–1858.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishikawa, Y. (2012, April 1). Displaced human mobility due to March 11 disaster. 2011 East Japan Earthquake Bulletin of the Tohoku Geographical Association. Retrieved from http://tohokugeo.jp/articles/e-contents29.pdf

  • Isoda, Y. (2011, April 5). The impact of casualties of 20,000+: Deaths and missing persons by municipalities. 2011 East Japan Earthquake Bulletin of the Tohoku Geographical Association. Retrieved from http://tohokugeo.jp/articles/e-contents1.html

  • Johnson, R., Bland, J., & Coleman, C. (2008, April). Impacts of the 2005 Gulf Coast hurricanes on domestic migration: U.S. Census Bureau response. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, LA. Retrieved from https://paa2008.princeton.edu/abstracts/80690

  • Kayastha, S. L., & Yadava, R. P. (1985). Flood induced population migration in India: A case study of Ghaghara Zone. In L. A. Kosinski & K. M. Elahi (Eds.), Population redistribution and development in South Asia (GeoJournal Library Vol. 3, pp. 79–88). Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer.

  • Koyama, S., Aida, J., Kawachi, I., Kondo, N., Subramanian, S. V., Ito, K., . . . Osaka, K. (2014). Social support improves mental health among the victims relocated to temporary housing following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Tohoku Journal of Experimental Medicine, 234, 241–247.

  • Lee, E. S. (1966). Theory of migration. Demography, 3, 47–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lu, X., Wrathall, D. J., Sundsøy, P. R., Nadiruzzaman, M., Wetter, E., Iqbal, A., . . . Bengtsson, L. (2016). Unveiling hidden migration and mobility patterns in climate stressed regions: A longitudinal study of six million anonymous mobile phone users in Bangladesh. Global Environmental Change, 38, 1–7.

  • Mallick, B., & Vogt, J. (2014). Population displacement after cyclone and its consequences: Empirical evidence from coastal Bangladesh. Natural Hazards, 73, 191–212.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1994). An evaluation of international migration theory: The North-American case. Population and Development Review, 20, 699–751.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matanle, P. (2013). Post-disaster recovery in ageing and declining communities: The Great East Japan disaster of 11 March 2011. Geography, 98, 68–76.

    Google Scholar 

  • McLeman, R. A. (2013). Climate and human migration: Past experiences, future challenges. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, 76, 31–53.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mueller, V., Gray, C., & Kosec, K. (2014). Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature Climate Change, 4, 182–185.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council. (2014). Lessons learned from the Fukushima nuclear accident for improving safety of U.S. nuclear plants. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.17226/18294

  • Nawrotzki, R. J., Hunter, L. M., Runfola, D. M., & Riosmena, F. (2015). Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico. Environmental Research Letters, 10(11), 114023. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oda, T. (2011). Grasping the Fukushima displacement and diaspora. 2011 East Japan Earthquake Bulletin of the Tohoku Geographical Association. Retrieved from http://tohokugeo.jp/articles/e-contents24.pdf

  • Pandit, K. (1997). Cohort and period effects in U.S. migration: How demographic and economic cycles influence the migration schedule. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 89, 439–450.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pardo, L. (2005). Statistical inference based on divergence measures. Baton Rouge, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.

    Google Scholar 

  • R Core Team. (2018). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Retrieved from https://www.R-project.org/

  • Randell, H. (2018). The strength of near and distant ties: Social capital, environmental change, and migration in the Brazilian Amazon. Sociology of Development, 4, 394–416. https://doi.org/10.1525/sod.2018.4.4.394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rigaud, K. K., de Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Bergmann, J., Clement, V., Ober, K., . . . Midgley, A. (2018). Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration. Washington, DC: World Bank.

  • Rivera, J. D., & Miller, D. S. (2007). Continually neglected: Situating natural disasters in the African American experience. Journal of Black Studies, 37, 502–522.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sawa, M., Osaki, Y., & Koishikawa, H. (2013). Delayed recovery of caregivers from social dysfunction and psychological distress after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Journal of Affective Disorders, 148, 413–417.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schultz, J., & Elliott, J. R. (2013). Natural disasters and local demographic change in the United States. Population and Environment, 34, 293–312.

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistics Bureau Japan. (2011). Report on internal migration in Japan. Tokyo, Japan: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Retrieved from https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/idou/index.html

  • Stone, G. S., Henderson, A. K., Davis, S. I., Lewin, M., Shimizu, I., Krishnamurthy, R., . . . Bowman, D. J. (2012). Lessons from the 2006 Louisiana Health and Population Survey. Disasters, 36, 270–290.

  • Stringfield, J. D. (2010). Higher ground: An exploratory analysis of characteristics affecting returning populations after Hurricane Katrina. Population and Environment, 31, 43–63.

    Google Scholar 

  • Suzuki, I., & Kaneko, Y. (2013). Japan’s disaster governance: How was the 3.11 crisis managed? New York, NY: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Takano, T. (2011, April 9). Overview of the 2011 East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster. 2011 East Japan Earthquake Bulletin of the Tohoku Geographical Association. Retrieved from http://tohokugeo.jp/articles/e-contents7.pdf

  • Takano, T. (2012, April 30). Brief explanation on the regional characteristics of Sanriku Coast (Update to April 19, 2011, report). 2011 East Japan Earthquake Bulletin of the Tohoku Geographical Association. Retrieved from http://tohokugeo.jp/articles/e-contents11.pdf

  • Thiede, B., & Brown, D. (2013). Hurricane Katrina: Who stayed and why? Population Research and Policy Review, 32, 803–824.

    Google Scholar 

  • Umeda, S. (2013). Japan: Legal responses to the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. Washington, DC: Law Library of Congress, Global Legal Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.loc.gov/law/help/japan-earthquake/index.php

  • United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). (2014). Estimated doses to evacuees in Japan for the first year (UNSCEAR 2013 Report, Annex A, Appendix C, Attachment C-18). Vienna, Austria: United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. Retrieved from https://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2013/UNSCEAR_2013A_C-18_Doses_evacuees_Japan_first_year_2014-08.pdf

  • UNSCEAR. (2014). Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after the 2011 Great East-Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (Vol. 1, Report to the General Assembly: Scientific Annex A). New York, NY: United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/report/japan/levels-and-effects-radiation-exposure-due-nuclear-accident-after-2011-great-east-japan

  • U.S. Geological Survey. (2014). Largest earthquakes in the world since 1900. Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/earthquake-hazards/science/20-largest-earthquakes-world?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

  • Warner, K., Ehrhart, C., de Sherbinin, A., Adamo, S., & Chai-Onn, T. (2009). In search of shelter: Mapping the effects of climate change on human migration and displacement (CARE Report). Geneva, Switzerland: CARE International. Retrieved from https://www.care.org/search-shelter-mapping-effects-climate-change-human-migration-and-displacement-0

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology and Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, 605 Bellamy Building, 113 Collegiate Loop, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA

    Mathew E. Hauer

  2. Department of Geography, University of Georgia, 210 Field Street, Athens, GA, 30602, USA

    Steven R. Holloway

  3. 311 Disaster Risk Reduction Learning Institute for Educators (DRR-LIFE), Miyagi University of Education, 149 Aoba, Aramaki, Sendai, Miyagi, 980-0845, Japan

    Takashi Oda

Authors
  1. Mathew E. Hauer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Steven R. Holloway
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Takashi Oda
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Mathew E. Hauer. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Mathew E. Hauer and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mathew E. Hauer.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hauer, M.E., Holloway, S.R. & Oda, T. Evacuees and Migrants Exhibit Different Migration Systems After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Demography 57, 1437–1457 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00883-7

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00883-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation