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Comment on ‘What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistics Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place That Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official Statistics” by Pierson et al. Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Stephen Penneck
Published in Statistics and Public Policy (Vol. 11, No. 1, 2024)
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On Coping in a Non-Binary World: Rejoinder to Biedermann and Kotsoglou Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2024-02-12 Nicholas Scurich, Richard S. John
Published in Statistics and Public Policy (Vol. 11, No. 1, 2024)
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Commentary on “Three-Way ROCs for Forensic Decision Making” by Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John (in: Statistics and Public Policy) Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2024-01-12 Alex Biedermann, Kyriakos N. Kotsoglou
Published in Statistics and Public Policy (Vol. 11, No. 1, 2024)
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Statistical Fallacies in Claims about “Massive and Widespread Fraud” in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2024-01-10 Bernard Grofman, Jonathan Cervas
Years after the election, a substantial portion of the electorate, including a significant majority of Republican voters and numerous Republican officials, continue to believe that the 2020 electio...
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Synthetic Control Analysis of the Short-Term Impact of New York State’s Bail Elimination Act on Aggregate Crime Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-12-13 Angela Zhou, Andrew Koo, Nathan Kallus, Rene Ropac, Richard Peterson, Stephen Koppel, Tiffany Bergin
We conduct an empirical evaluation of the short-term impact of New York’s bail reform on crime. New York State’s Bail Elimination Act went into effect on January 1, 2020, eliminating money bail and...
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Statistical Approaches for Assessing Disparate Impact in Fair Housing Cases Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-27 Dennis J. Aigner, Marco del Ángel, Joel Wiles
The measurement of the disparate impact of a particular de facto discriminatory policy on a minority or otherwise legally protected group has been of importance since passage of the Civil Rights Ac...
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Three-Way ROCs for Forensic Decision Making Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-07-21 Nicholas Scurich, Richard S. John
Firearm examiners use a comparison microscope to judge whether bullets or cartridge cases were fired by the same gun. Examiners can reach one of three possible conclusions: Identification (a match)...
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A Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model to Optimize Allocation of Buprenorphine in North Carolina Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-06-29 Qianyu Dong, David Kline, Staci A. Hepler
Abstract The opioid epidemic is an ongoing public health crisis. In North Carolina, overdose deaths due to illicit opioid overdose have sharply increased over the last 5–7 years. Buprenorphine is a U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved medication for treatment of opioid use disorder and is obtained by prescription. Prior to January 2023, providers had to obtain a waiver and were limited in the
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Shining a Light on Forensic Black-Box Studies Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-06-29 Kori Khan, Alicia L. Carriquiry
Forensic science plays a critical role in the United States criminal legal system. For decades, many feature-based fields of forensic science, such as firearm and toolmark identification, developed...
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The Polls and the U.S. Presidential Election in 2020 …. and 2024 Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-05-30 Arnold Barnett, Arnaud Sarfati
Abstract Arguably, the single greatest determinant of U.S. public policy is the identity of the president. And if trusted, polls not only provide forecasts about presidential-election outcomes but can act to shape those outcomes. Looking ahead to the 2024 U.S. presidential election and recognizing that polls before the 2020 presidential election were sharply criticized, we consider whether such harsh
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Prevalence and Propagation of Fake News Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-19 Banafsheh Behzad, Bhavana Bheem, Daniela Elizondo, Susan Martonosi
ABSTRACT In recent years, scholars have raised concerns on the effects that unreliable news, or “fake news,” has on our political sphere, and our democracy as a whole. For example, the propagation of fake news on social media is widely believed to have influenced the outcome of national elections, including the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. What drives the propagation
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The Effect of COVID-19 Vaccinations on Self-Reported Depression and Anxiety During February 2021 Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-19 Max Rubinstein, Amelia Haviland, Joshua Breslau
Abstract Using the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, we estimate the average effect of COVID-19 vaccinations on self-reported feelings of depression and anxiety, isolation, and worries about health among vaccine-accepting respondents in February 2021, and find 3.7, 3.3, and 4.3 percentage point reductions in the probability of each outcome, respectively, with particularly large reductions among respondents
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Comments on: A Re-analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study, by Dorfman and Valliant Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-19 Max D. Morris
Published in Statistics and Public Policy (Vol. 10, No. 1, 2023)
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A Statistical Understanding of Disability in the LGBT Community Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-04-19 Chris R. Surfus
Abstract For the first time ever, the United States Census Bureau began collecting data on the LGBT community with Phase 3.2 of the Household Pulse Survey. The Household Pulse Survey assesses how residents of the United States are doing during the COVID-19 pandemic. The data provided by the Household Pulse Survey Week 34 through Week 39 provides information to understand the lives of LGBT residents
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What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place to Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official U.S. Statistics Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-10 Constance F. Citro, Jonathan Auerbach, Katherine Smith Evans, Erica L. Groshen, J. Steven Landefeld, Jeri Mulrow, Thomas Petska, Steve Pierson, Nancy Potok, Charles J. Rothwell, John Thompson, James L. Woodworth, Edward Wu
Abstract We assess the professional autonomy of the 13 principal U.S. federal statistical agencies. We define six components or measures of such autonomy and evaluate each of the 13 principal statistical agencies according to each measure. Our assessment yields three main findings: 1. Challenges to the objectivity, credibility, and utility of federal statistics arise largely as a consequence of insufficient
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A Re-Analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-25 Alan H. Dorfman, Richard Valliant
Abstract Forensic firearms identification, the determination by a trained firearms examiner as to whether or not bullets or cartridges came from a common weapon, has long been a mainstay in the criminal courts. Reliability of forensic firearms identification has been challenged in the general scientific community, and, in response, several studies have been carried out aimed at showing that firearms
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Marginal Structural Models to Estimate Causal Effects of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-14 Willem M. Van Der Wal
Abstract Right-to-carry (RTC) laws allow the legal carrying of concealed firearms for defense, in certain states in the United States. I used modern causal inference methodology from epidemiology to examine the effect of RTC laws on crime over a period from 1959 up to 2016. I fitted marginal structural models (MSMs), using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to correct for criminological, economic
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Signal Weighted Teacher Value-Added Models Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-04 Edward J. Kim
Abstract This study introduces the signal weighted teacher value-added model (SW VAM), a value-added model that weights student-level observations based on each student’s capacity to signal their assigned teacher’s quality. Specifically, the model leverages the repeated appearance of a given student to estimate student reliability and sensitivity parameters, whereas traditional VAMs represent a special
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Mathematical Analysis of Redistricting in Utah Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-27 Annika King, Jacob Murri, Jake Callahan, Adrienne Russell, Tyler J. Jarvis
Abstract We discuss difficulties of evaluating partisan gerrymandering in the congressional districts in Utah and the failure of many common metrics in Utah. We explain why the Republican vote share in the least-Republican district (LRVS) is a good indicator of the advantage or disadvantage each party has in the Utah congressional districts. Although the LRVS only makes sense in settings with at most
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Financial Literacy and Perceived Economic Outcomes Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-07-12 David Puelz, Robert Puelz
Abstract We explore the relationship between financial literacy and self-reported, reflective economic outcomes from respondents using survey data from the United States. Our dataset includes a large number of covariates from the National Financial Capability Study (NFCS), widely used by literacy researchers, and we use a new econometric technique developed by Hahn et al., designed specifically for
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Rethinking the Funding Line at the Swiss National Science Foundation: Bayesian Ranking and Lottery Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-07-12 Rachel Heyard, Manuela Ott, Georgia Salanti, Matthias Egger
Abstract Funding agencies rely on peer review and expert panels to select the research deserving funding. Peer review has limitations, including bias against risky proposals or interdisciplinary research. The inter-rater reliability between reviewers and panels is low, particularly for proposals near the funding line. Funding agencies are also increasingly acknowledging the role of chance. The Swiss
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Changes in Crime Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-06-02 Mikaela Meyer, Ahmed Hassafy, Gina Lewis, Prasun Shrestha, Amelia M. Haviland, Daniel S. Nagin
Abstract We estimate changes in the rates of five FBI Part 1 crimes during the 2020 spring COVID-19 pandemic lockdown period and the period after the killing of George Floyd through December 2020. We use weekly crime rate data from 28 of the 70 largest cities in the United States from January 2018 to December 2020. Homicide rates were higher throughout 2020, including during early 2020 prior to March
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Policy Implications of Statistical Estimates: A General Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Model for Binary Outcomes Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-25 Akisato Suzuki
Abstract How should we evaluate the effect of a policy on the likelihood of an undesirable event, such as conflict? The significance test has three limitations. First, relying on statistical significance misses the fact that uncertainty is a continuous scale. Second, focusing on a standard point estimate overlooks the variation in plausible effect sizes. Third, the criterion of substantive significance
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Observational Study of the Effect of the Juvenile Stay-At-Home Order on SARS-CoV-2 Infection Spread in Saline County, Arkansas Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-21 Neil Hwang, Shirshendu Chatterjee, Yanming Di, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya
Abstract We assess the treatment effect of juvenile stay-at-home orders (JSAHO) on reducing the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection spread in Saline County (“Saline”), Arkansas, by examining the difference between Saline’s and control Arkansas counties’ changes in daily and mean log infection rates of pretreatment (March 28–April 5, 2020) and treatment periods (April 6–May 6, 2020). A synthetic control county
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NAICS Code Prediction Using Supervised Methods Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-04 Christine Oehlert, Evan Schulz, Anne Parker
Abstract When compiling industry statistics or selecting businesses for further study, researchers often rely on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. However, codes are self-reported on tax forms and reporting incorrect codes or even leaving the code blank has no tax consequences, so they are often unusable. IRSs Statistics of Income (SOI) program validates NAICS codes for businesses
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A Misuse of Statistical Reasoning: The Statistical Arguments Offered by Texas to the Supreme Court in an Attempt to Overturn the Results of the 2020 Election Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-04 Weiwen Miao, Qing Pan, Joseph L. Gastwirth
Abstract In December 2020, Texas filed a motion to the U.S. Supreme Court claiming that the four battleground states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin did not conduct their 2020 presidential elections in compliance with the Constitution. Texas supported its motion with a statistical analysis purportedly demonstrating that it was highly improbable that Biden had more votes than Trump in
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Wartime Fatalities in the Nuclear Era Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-03-11 Lauren Ice, James Scouras, Edward Toton
Abstract Senior leaders in the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as nuclear strategists and academics, have argued that the advent of nuclear weapons is associated with a dramatic decrease in wartime fatalities. This assessment is often supported by an evolving series of figures that show a marked drop in wartime fatalities as a percentage of world population after 1945 to levels well below those
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A Causal Framework for Observational Studies of Discrimination Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-02-25 Johann Gaebler, William Cai, Guillaume Basse, Ravi Shroff, Sharad Goel, Jennifer Hill
Abstract In studies of discrimination, researchers often seek to estimate a causal effect of race or gender on outcomes. For example, in the criminal justice context, one might ask whether arrested individuals would have been subsequently charged or convicted had they been a different race. It has long been known that such counterfactual questions face measurement challenges related to omitted-variable
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Estimating Local Prevalence of Obesity Via Survey Under Cost Constraints: Stratifying ZCTAs in Virginia’s Thomas Jefferson Health District Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-01-31 Benjamin J. Lobo, Denise E. Bonds, Karen Kafadar
Abstract Currently, the most reliable estimate of the prevalence of obesity in Virginia’s Thomas Jefferson Health District (TJHD) comes from an annual telephone survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This district-wide estimate has limited use to decision makers who must target health interventions at a more granular level. A survey is one way of obtaining more granular
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Graphical Measures Summarizing the Inequality of Income of Two Groups Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-01-31 Joshua Landon, Joseph Gastwirth
Abstract Recently, Gastwirth proposed two transformations p∗(q)and m∗(q) of the Lorenz curve, which calculates the proportion of a population, cumulated from the poorest or middle, respectively, needed to have the same amount of income as top 100q%. Economists and policy makers are often interested in the comparative status of two groups, for example, females versus males or minority versus majority
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Reconciling Evaluations of the Millennium Villages Project Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2022-01-18 Andrew Gelman, Shira Mitchell, Jeffrey Sachs, Sonia Sachs
Abstract The Millennium Villages Project was an integrated rural development program carried out for a decade in 10 clusters of villages in sub-Saharan Africa starting in 2005, and in a few other sites for shorter durations. An evaluation of the 10 main sites compared to retrospectively chosen control sites estimated positive effects on a range of economic, social, and health outcomes (Mitchell et al
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Statisticians Engage in Gun Violence Research Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-10-22 Greg Ridgeway, James L. Rosenberger, Lingzhou Xue
Abstract Government reports document more than 14,000 homicides and more than 195,000 aggravated assaults with firearms in 2017. In addition, there were 346 mass shootings, with 4 or more victims, including over 2000 people shot. These statistics do not include suicides (two-thirds of gun deaths) or accidents (5% of gun deaths). This article describes statistical issues discussed at a national forum
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Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-09-27 Andrew Gelman
Abstract The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?
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The Contagion of Mass Shootings: The Interdependence of Large-Scale Massacres and Mass Media Coverage Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-07-06 James Alan Fox, Nathan E. Sanders, Emma E. Fridel, Grant Duwe, Michael Rocque
ABSTRACT Mass public shootings have generated significant levels of fear in the recent years, with many observers criticizing the media for fostering a moral panic, if not an actual rise in the frequency of such attacks. Scholarly research suggests that the media can potentially impact the prevalence of mass shootings in two respects: (i) some individuals may be inspired to mimic the actions of highly
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Optimal Matching for Observational Studies That Integrate Quantitative and Qualitative Research Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-06-17 Ruoqi Yu, Dylan S. Small, David Harding, José Aveldanes, Paul R. Rosenbaum
Abstract A quantitative study of treatment effects may form many matched pairs of a treated subject and an untreated control who look similar in terms of covariates measured prior to treatment. When treatments are not randomly assigned, one inevitable concern is that individuals who look similar in measured covariates may be dissimilar in unmeasured covariates. Another concern is that quantitative
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Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-05-03 Jonathan Auerbach, Steve Pierson
Abstract We estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of these states where registered voters are automatically sent ballots by mail (vote-by-mail states
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Hypothesis-based Acceptance Sampling for Modules F and F1 of the European Measuring Instruments Directive Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-21 Katy Klauenberg, Cord A. Müller, Clemens Elster
Abstract Millions of measuring instruments are verified each year before being placed on the markets worldwide. In the EU, such initial conformity assessments are regulated by the Measuring Instruments Directive (MID). The MID modules F and F1 on product verification allow for statistical acceptance sampling, whereby only random subsets of instruments need to be inspected. This article re-interprets
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Analyzing the Impacts of Public Policy on COVID-19 Transmission: A Case Study of the Role of Model and Dataset Selection Using Data from Indiana Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-02-04 George Mohler, Martin B. Short, Frederic Schoenberg, Daniel Sledge
ABSTRACT Dynamic estimation of the reproduction number of COVID-19 is important for assessing the impact of public health measures on virus transmission. State and local decisions about whether to relax or strengthen mitigation measures are being made in part based on whether the reproduction number, Rt , falls below the self-sustaining value of 1. Employing branching point process models and COVID-19
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Separating effect from significance in Markov chain tests Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-10-05 Maria Chikina, Alan Frieze, Jonathan C. Mattingly, Wesley Pegden
We give qualitative and quantitative improvements to theorems which enable significance testing in Markov Chains, with a particular eye toward the goal of enabling strong, interpretable, and statistically rigorous claims of political gerrymandering. Our results can be used to demonstrate at a desired significance level that a given Markov Chain state (e.g., a districting) is extremely unusual (rather
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Who is my Neighbor? The Spatial Efficiency of Partisanship Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-09-28 Nicholas Eubank, Jonathan Rodden
Relative to its overall statewide support, the Republican Party has been over-represented in Congressional delegations and state legislatures over the last decade in a number of U.S. states. A challenge for courts is to determine the extent to which this can be explained by intentional gerrymandering vis-a-vis an underlying inefficient distribution of Democrats in cities. We explain the problem of
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Optimal Legislative County Clustering in North Carolina Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Daniel Carter, Zach Hunter, Dan Teague, Gregory Herschlag, Jonathan Mattingly
North Carolina's constitution requires that state legislative districts should not split counties. However, counties must be split to comply with the "one person, one vote" mandate of the U.S. Supreme Court. Given that counties must be split, the North Carolina legislature and courts have provided guidelines that seek to reduce counties split across districts while also complying with the "one person
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Quantifying Gerrymandering in North Carolina Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Gregory Herschlag, Han Sung Kang, Justin Luo, Christy Vaughn Graves, Sachet Bangia, Robert Ravier, Jonathan C. Mattingly
Using an ensemble of redistricting plans, we evaluate whether a given political districting faithfully represents the geo-political landscape. Redistricting plans are sampled by a Monte Carlo algorithm from a probability distribution that adheres to realistic and non-partisan criteria. Using the sampled redistricting plans and historical voting data, we produce an ensemble of elections that reveal
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Mathematics of Nested Districts: The Case of Alaska Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Sophia Caldera, Daryl DeFord, Moon Duchin, Samuel C. Gutekunst, Cara Nix
In eight states, a "nesting rule" requires that each state Senate district be exactly composed of two adjacent state House districts. In this paper we investigate the potential impacts of these nesting rules with a focus on Alaska, where Republicans have a 2/3 majority in the Senate while a Democratic-led coalition controls the House. Treating the current House plan as fixed and considering all possible
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The Essential Role of Empirical Validation in Legislative Redistricting Simulation* Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Benjamin Fifield, Kosuke Imai, Jun Kawahara, Christopher T. Kenny
As granular data about elections and voters become available, redistricting simulation methods are playing an increasingly important role when legislatures adopt redistricting plans and courts dete...
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A Computational Approach to Measuring Vote Elasticity and Competitiveness Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Daryl DeFord, Moon Duchin, Justin Solomon
The recent wave of attention to partisan gerrymandering has come with a push to refine or replace the laws that govern political redistricting around the country. A common element in several states' reform efforts has been the inclusion of competitiveness metrics, or scores that evaluate a districting plan based on the extent to which district-level outcomes are in play or are likely to be closely
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On Racial Disparities in Recent Fatal Police Shootings Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Lucas Mentch
Fatal police shootings in the United States continue to be a polarizing social and political issue. Clear disagreement between racial proportions of victims and nationwide racial demographics toget...
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Statistical procedures for assessing the need for an Affirmative Action plan: A reanalysis of the Shea v. Kerry Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-12-18 Qing Pan, Weiwen Miao, Joseph L. Gastwirth
In the 1980s, reports from Congress and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) presented statistical evidence showing that employees in the Foreign Service were overwhelmingly White male, espec...
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Discretionary Wars, Cost-Benefit Analysis, and the Rashomon Effect: Searching for an Analytical Engine for Avoiding War Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Jonathan Ratner
Those of us who value analytic thinking about public policy and, in particular, about war, can learn a great deal from reading “Cost Benefit Analysis of Discretionary Wars” by Diane Hu and her coauthors.1 The article also raises many questions, and considering them spurs learning too. Their article contributes to the literature by formulating and implementing an approach to the cost-benefit analysis
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Cost-Benefit Analysis of Discretionary Wars Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Diane Hu, Andrew Cooper, Neel Desai, Sophie Guo, Steven Shi, David Banks
Abstract Policy-makers should perform a cost-benefit analysis before initiating a war. This article describes a methodology for such assessment, and applies it post hoc to five military actions undertaken by the United States between 1950 and 2000 (the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the invasion of Grenada, the invasion of Panama, and the First Gulf War). The analysis identifies three broad categories
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Global Zoning & Exchangeability of Field Trial Residues between Zones: Are there Systematic Differences in Pesticide Residues across Geographies? Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 James Nguyen, Carmen Tiu, Jane Stewart, David Miller
Abstract Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate the global zoning concept using residue data from a comprehensive database of supervised field trials performed in various countries and regions on a variety of pesticide–crop combinations. No statistically significant systematic differences in pesticide residues were found between zones among the pesticide uses examined. In addition, we conducted
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Response to “Discretionary Wars, Cost-Benefit Analysis, and the Rashomon Effect” Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 David Banks
Dr. Jonathan Ratner’s discussion is amazing and a valuable commentary (and sometimes a corrective) upon the work in our article. We are grateful for his thoughtful examination and testing of the assumptions and methodology we have used. His contribution goes far beyond a typical discussion and is an article in its own right, or at the very least a provocative essay. He makes many important points and
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Classifying Hate Speech Using a Two-Layer Model Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Yiwen Tang, Nicole Dalzell
ABSTRACT Social media and other online sites are being increasingly scrutinized as platforms for cyberbullying and hate speech. Many machine learning algorithms, such as support vector machines, have been adopted to create classification tools to identify and potentially filter patterns of negative speech. While effective for prediction, these methodologies yield models that are difficult to interpret
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Understanding our Markov chain significance test: A reply to Cho and Rubinstein-Salzedo Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Maria Chikina, Alan Frieze, Wesley Pegden
Abstract The article of Cho and Rubinstein-Salzedo seeks to cast doubt on our previous paper, which described a rigorous statistical test which can be applied to reversible Markov chains. In particular, Cho and Rubinstein-Salzedo seem to suggest that the test we describe might not be a reliable indicator of gerrymandering, when the test is applied to certain redistricting Markov chains. However, the
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An Alternative to the Carnegie Classifications: Identifying Similar Institutions with Structural Equation Models and Clustering Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Paul Harmon, Sarah McKnight, Laura Hildreth, Ian Godwin, Mark Greenwood
Abstract The Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education is a commonly used framework for institutional classification that classifies doctoral-granting schools into three groups based on research productivity. Despite its wide use, the Carnegie methodology involves several shortcomings, including a lack of thorough documentation, subjectively placed thresholds between institutions
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Patterns of Pediatric Cancers in Florida: 2000-2015 Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Raid W. Amin, Alexander Bohnert, David Banks
ABSTRACT This study identifies pediatric cancer clusters in Florida for the years 2000–2015. Unlike previous publications on pediatric cancers in Florida, it draws upon an Environmental Protection Agency dataset on carcinogenic air pollution, the National Air Toxics Assessment, as well as more customary demographic variables (age, sex, race). The focus is upon the three most widely seen pediatric cancer
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Statistics, Probability, and a Failed Conservation Policy Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Michael D. Collins
Abstract Many sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) have been reported during the past several decades, but nobody has managed to obtain the clear photo that is regarded as the standard form of evidence for documenting birds. Despite reports of sightings by teams of ornithologists working independently in Arkansas and Florida, doubts cast on the persistence of this iconic
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EPA is Mandating the Normal Distribution Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Steven P. Millard
Abstract The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is responsible for overseeing the cleanup of sites that fall within the jurisdiction of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA; also known as “Superfund”). This process almost always involves a remedial investigation/feasibility (RI/FS) study, including deriving upper confidence, prediction
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Rejoinder to “Understanding our Markov Chain Significance Test” Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Wendy K. Tam Cho, Simon Rubinstein-Salzedo
We thank Chikina, Frieze, and Pegden for their reply to our article. We offer just a short clarification rejoinder. In particular, we would like to be clear that we are not challenging the CFP test as a partisan gerrymandering test. We also do not “cast doubt” on the CFP paper. We have clearly stated that “we take no issues with the mathematics behind the CFP theorem or its proof.” In addition, we
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Understanding Significance Tests from a Non-Mixing Markov Chain for Partisan Gerrymandering Claims Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 Wendy K. Tam Cho, Simon Rubinstein-Salzedo
ABSTRACT Recently, Chikina, Frieze, and Pegden proposed a way to assess significance in a Markov chain without requiring that Markov chain to mix. They presented their theorem as a rigorous test for partisan gerrymandering. We clarify that their ε-outlier test is distinct from a traditional global outlier test and does not indicate, as they imply, that a particular electoral map is associated with
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A Bayesian difference-in-difference framework for the impact of primary care redesign on diabetes outcomes Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2019-01-01 James Normington, Eric Lock, Caroline Carlin, Kevin Peterson, Bradley Carlin
Abstract Although national measures of the quality of diabetes care delivery demonstrate improvement, progress has been slow. In 2008, the Minnesota legislature endorsed the patient-centered medical home (PCMH) as the preferred model for primary care redesign. In this work, we investigate the effect of PCMH-related clinic redesign and resources on diabetes outcomes from 2008 to 2012 among Minnesota