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The strategic jump-the order effect on winning “The Final Three” in long jump competitions Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Niklas Karlsson, Anders Lunander
The tournament rules for long jump competitions have changed in recent years. Today, only the three athletes with the best jumps from the five initial attempts are qualified to make an additional sixth jump – a format called The Final Three. In the first implemented version of The Final Three, the top athletes sequentially make one final jump, starting with the athlete ranked third place from the initial
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Estimating age-dependent performance in paired comparisons competitions: application to snooker Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Rose D. Baker, Ian G. McHale
We first present a model for the outcome of snooker matches in which player strengths are allowed to vary deterministically with time. The results allow us to identify the greatest players of all time, and to examine the relationship between age and performance. Second, we present a random effects model which uses the estimated strengths from our first model, to forecast player performance, and to
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Opponent choice in tournaments: winning and shirking Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-01-19 Nicholas G. Hall, Zhixin Liu
We propose an alternative design for tournaments that use a preliminary stage, followed by several rounds of single elimination play. The conventional “bracket” design of these tournaments suffers from several deficiencies. Specifically, various reasonable performance criteria for the tournament are not satisfied, there is an unnecessary element of luck in the matchups of players, and there are situations
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Fair world para masters point system for swimming Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-01-18 Christoph Bartneck, Elena Moltchanova
A fair and inclusive competition depends on a scoring system that takes all relevant factors into account. We analysed the current World Para Point System for swimming and identified several theoretical and practical disadvantages. We propose and test a Fair World Para Point System that not only improves the algorithm, but also extends it to accommodate for the age of the athlete. It also provides
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Improving ranking quality and fairness in Swiss-system chess tournaments Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-01-18 Pascal Sauer, Ágnes Cseh, Pascal Lenzner
The International Chess Federation (FIDE) imposes a voluminous and complex set of player pairing criteria in Swiss-system chess tournaments and endorses computer programs that are able to calculate the prescribed pairings. The purpose of these formalities is to ensure that players are paired fairly during the tournament and that the final ranking corresponds to the players’ true strength order. We
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A multiplicative approach to decathlon scoring based on efficient frontiers Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-01-10 Manuel Schütz, Chris Tofallis
The decathlon consists of ten events with scores which are then aggregated to determine the final ranking. We develop a decathlon scoring method which is far simpler than the existing standard (IAAF1984) tables, as there are only 9 parameters instead of 30 which have an impact on the overall rank. We first identify athletes who are on the Pareto-efficient frontier i.e. those who are not dominated by
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Equity, diversity, and inclusion in sports analytics Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-01-09 Craig Fernandes, Jason D. Vescovi, Richard Norman, Cheri L. Bradish, Nathan Taback, Timothy C. Y. Chan
This paper presents a landmark study of equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) in the field of sports analytics. We developed a survey that examined personal and job-related demographics, as well as individual perceptions and experiences about EDI in the workplace. We sent the survey to individuals in the five major North American professional leagues, representatives from the Olympic and Paralympic
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Contributions of Carl Morris in sports analytics, a memorium Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-01-05 Jim Albert
Carl Morris 1938–2023 was well-known for his pioneering research in Bayesian multiparameter inference and prediction. Morris was also known for his development of statistical thinking and methodology in sports. This paper provides an overview of Morris’ contributions in sports. This includes Morris’ experience in sports as a youth, summaries of some of Morris’ best-known contributions using sports
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Miss it like Messi: Extracting value from off-target shots in soccer Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Ethan Baron, Nathan Sandholtz, Devin Pleuler, Timothy C. Y. Chan
Measuring soccer shooting skill is a challenging analytics problem due to the scarcity and highly contextual nature of scoring events. The introduction of more advanced data surrounding soccer shots has given rise to model-based metrics which better cope with these challenges. Specifically, metrics such as expected goals added, goals above expectation, and post-shot expected goals all use advanced
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On the design of international match calendar: the effect of “FIFA reserved dates” on European football matches’ outcomes Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-11-28 Levi Pérez
Every season, the international football calendar contains periods reserved for a series of so-called special matches including international friendly or official matches played by national teams. All these periods are called “FIFA reserved dates” in the calendar and generally cause domestic competitions to shut down for some days. Such interruptions of leagues might generate different effects or externalities
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Plackett–Luce modeling with trajectory models for measuring athlete strength Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-10-31 Katy McKeough, Mark Glickman
It is often the goal of sports analysts, coaches, and fans to predict athlete performance over time. Models such as Bradley–Terry and Plackett–Luce measure athlete skill based on results of competitions over time, but have limited predictive strength without making assumptions about the nature of the evolution of athletic skill. Growth curves are often applied in the context of sports to predict future
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Evaluating plate discipline in Major League Baseball with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-09-19 Ryan Yee, Sameer K. Deshpande
We introduce a three-step framework to determine at which pitches Major League batters should swing. Unlike traditional plate discipline metrics, which implicitly assume that all batters should always swing at (resp. take) pitches inside (resp. outside) the strike zone, our approach explicitly accounts not only for the players and umpires involved in the pitch but also in-game contextual information
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Bayesian analysis of Formula One race results: disentangling driver skill and constructor advantage Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-25 Erik-Jan van Kesteren, Tom Bergkamp
Successful performance in Formula One is determined by combination of both the driver’s skill and race-car constructor advantage. This makes key performance questions in the sport difficult to answer. For example, who is the best Formula One driver, which is the best constructor, and what is their relative contribution to success? In this paper, we answer these questions based on data from the hybrid
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Performing best when it matters the most: evidence from professional handball Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-24 Christoph Bühren, Marvin Gabriel
We analyze the impact of psychological pressure on performance with over 5500 handball penalties thrown in either the decisive stage or the rest of the game during matches of the 2019/2020 season in the first three German handball leagues. Contrary to the choking under pressure phenomenon, most of the analyzed players perform best when it matters the most. The positive effect of pressure on performance
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Feeling fast? Beliefs and performance among high school sprinters Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-24 Travis J. Lybbert, Geyi Zheng
Mindset can shape sports performance, but these effects can be difficult to detect empirically. We use data from high school sprinters to explore mindset effects on 100 m finishing times and find that headwinds hamper performance more than can be attributed to the physics of wind resistance alone. These (implied) psychological effects of wind on sprint times are stronger for girls than for boys. Having
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Investigating trade-offs made by American football linebackers using tracking data Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-21 Eric Eager, Tej Seth
In recent years, the game of football has made a shift towards being more quantitative. With the advent of charting and tracking data, player evaluation is able to be studied from several different angles. In this paper, we build and refine two novel metrics: Bite Distance Under Expected (BDUE) and Ground Covered Over Expected (GCOE) for the evaluation of linebackers in the National Football League
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Choosing opponents in skiing sprint elimination tournaments Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-10 Anders Lunander, Niklas Karlsson
In this study we analyse data from world cup cross-country skiing sprint elimination tournaments for men and women in 2015–2020. Instead of being assigned a quarterfinal according to a seeding scheme, prequalified athletes choose themselves in sequential order in which of the five quarterfinals to compete. Due to a time constraint on the day the competition is held, the recovery time between the elimination
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Generalizing the Elo rating system for multiplayer games and races: why endurance is better than speed Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-30 Ben Powell
We introduce a non-standard generalization of the Elo rating system for competitions involving two or more participants. The new system can be understood as an online estimation algorithm for the parameters of a Plackett–Luce model which can be used to make probabilistic forecasts for the results of future competitions. The system’s distinguishing feature is the way it treats competitions as sequences
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A Bayesian analysis of the time through the order penalty in baseball Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-26 Ryan S. Brill, Sameer K. Deshpande, Abraham J. Wyner
As a baseball game progresses, batters appear to perform better the more times they face a particular pitcher. The apparent drop-off in pitcher performance from one time through the order to the next, known as the Time Through the Order Penalty (TTOP), is often attributed to within-game batter learning. Although the TTOP has largely been accepted within baseball and influences many managers’ in-game
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Simplified Kalman filter for on-line rating: one-fits-all approach Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-25 Leszek Szczecinski, Raphaëlle Tihon
In this work, we deal with the problem of rating in sports, where the skills of the players/teams are inferred from the observed outcomes of the games. Our focus is on the on-line rating algorithms that estimate skills after each new game by exploiting the probabilistic models that (i) relate the skills to the outcome of the game and (ii) describe how the skills evolve in time. We propose a Bayesian
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The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022 Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-19 Michael A. Lapré, Elizabeth M. Palazzolo
The FIFA Men’s World Cup tournament is the most popular sporting event in the world. Scholars have identified several flaws in the organization of the World Cup causing competitive imbalance. We empirically assess competitive imbalance between groups for the World Cup tournaments from 1954 through 2022. We average the Elo ratings of a team’s opponents in the group stage to calculate their group opponents
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Parking the bus Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-05-29 Tianyu Guan, Jiguo Cao, Tim B. Swartz
This paper explores defensive play in soccer. The analysis is predicated on the assumption that the area of the convex hull formed by the players on a team provides a proxy for defensive style where small areas coincide with a greater defensive focus. With the availability of tracking data, the massive dataset considered in this paper consists of areas of convex hulls, related covariates and shots
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Testing styles of play using triad census distribution: an application to men’s football Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-05-23 Lucio Palazzo, Riccardo Ievoli, Giancarlo Ragozini
Summary statistics of football matches such as final score, possession and percentage of completed passes are not satisfyingly informative about style of play seen on the pitch. In this sense, networks and graphs are able to quantify how teams play differently from each others. We study the distribution of triad census, i.e., the distribution of local structures in networks and we show how it is possible
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Predicting elite NBA lineups using individual player order statistics Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-05-23 Susan E. Martonosi, Martin Gonzalez, Nicolas Oshiro
NBA team managers and owners try to acquire high-performing players. An important consideration in these decisions is how well the new players will perform in combination with their teammates. Our objective is to identify elite five-person lineups, which we define as those having a positive plus-minus per minute (PMM). Using individual player order statistics, our model can identify an elite lineup
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Pitching strategy evaluation via stratified analysis using propensity score Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-05-18 Hiroshi Nakahara, Kazuya Takeda, Keisuke Fujii
Recent measurement technologies enable us to analyze baseball at higher levels of complexity. There are, however, still many unclear points around pitching strategy. There are two elements that make it difficult to measure the effect of a pitching strategy. First, most public datasets do not include location data where the catcher demands a ball, which is essential information to obtain the battery’s
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Clustering of football players based on performance data and aggregated clustering validity indexes Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-05-15 Serhat Emre Akhanli, Christian Hennig
We analyse football (soccer) player performance data with mixed type variables from the 2014-15 season of eight European major leagues. We cluster these data based on a tailor-made dissimilarity measure. In order to decide between the many available clustering methods and to choose an appropriate number of clusters, we use the approach by Akhanli and Hennig (2020. “Comparing Clusterings and Numbers
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Augmenting adjusted plus-minus in soccer with FIFA ratings Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-02-22 Francesca Matano, Lee Richardson, Taylor Pospisil, Collin A. Politsch, Jining Qin
Adjusted plus-minus (APM) can sometimes lack common sense. This happens, for instance, when mediocre players move into the top ten, and superstars fall out of the top 100. These occasional outliers hurt the credibility of APM, and mask the benefits, such as increased prediction accuracy. We address this problem with a new method, called Augmented APM. Augmented APM incorporates external player ratings
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Modern and post-modern portfolio theory as applied to moneyline betting Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-02-13 David A. Harville
Modern and post-modern portfolio theory were devised by Harry Markowitz (among others) for purposes of allocating some monetary resources among a number of financial assets so as to strike a suitable balance between risk and expected return. The problem it addresses bears a considerable resemblance to one encountered in making “moneyline” bets on the outcomes of contests in sports like American football
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A roster construction decision tool for MLS expansion teams Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-02-08 Zachary J. Smith, J. Eric Bickel
We present a mathematical modeling framework for roster construction of a Major League Soccer (MLS) expansion team. The model seeks to construct the best squad feasible under league salary rules, while balancing present value, potential value, and future cap flexibility. Player acquisition decisions, as well as allocation of salary, targeted allocation money (TAM), general allocation money (GAM), and
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Home advantage and crowd attendance: evidence from rugby during the Covid 19 pandemic Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-01-25 Fernando Delbianco, Federico Fioravanti, Fernando Tohmé
The COVID-19 pandemic forced almost all professional and amateur sports to be played without attending crowds. Thus, it induced a large-scale natural experiment on the impact of social pressure on decision making and behavior in sports fields. Using a data set of 1027 rugby union matches from 11 tournaments in 10 countries, we find that home teams have won less matches and their point difference decreased
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Kelly criterion and fractional Kelly strategy for non-mutually exclusive bets Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-01-17 Benjamin P. Jacot, Paul V. Mochkovitch
This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where multiple types of bets are available for a single race
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A peculiar phenomenon and its potential explanation in the ATP tennis tour finals for singles Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-01-16 Itamar Lerner
The ATP finals is the concluding tournament of the tennis season since its initiation over 50 years ago. It features the 8 best players of that year and is often considered to be the most prestigious event in the sport other than the 4 grand slams. Unlike any other professional tennis tournament, it includes a round-robin stage where all players in a group compete against each other, making it a unique
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‘Form is temporary, class is permanent’: identifying a longer-term hot hand in golf Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-12-19 Rose Baker, Ian G. McHale
The existence (or not) of the hot hand in sport continues to attract the attention of economists and psychologists. The paper presents analysis to test the belief prevalent in golfing circles that golfers go in and out of form quickly, while ‘class’ remains relatively constant. By going in and out of form, the golfer is effectively experiencing a longer-run hot hand: one can speculate that periods
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Modelling Australian Rules Football as spatial systems with pairwise comparisons Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-12-19 Anton Andreacchio, Nigel Bean, Lewis Mitchell
Statistical analysis in competitive sport is an important tool for developing strategy and seeking competitive advantages. However, for complex team sports such as Australian Rules Football, major limitations occur when using possession event data for game analysis. First, focusing on counting possession events does not capture the impact of off-the-ball actions such as ground positioning of other
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The effects of draw restrictions on knockout tournaments Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-12-12 László Csató
The paper analyses how draw constraints influence the outcome of a knockout tournament. The research question is inspired by European club football competitions, where the organiser generally imposes an association constraint in the first round of the knockout phase: teams from the same country cannot be drawn against each other. Its effects are explored in both theoretical and simulation models. An
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Bayesian modelling of elite sporting performance with large databases Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-12-08 Jim E. Griffin, Laurenţiu C. Hinoveanu, James G. Hopker
The availability of large databases of athletic performances offers the opportunity to understand age-related performance progression and to benchmark individual performance against the World’s best. We build a flexible Bayesian model of individual performance progression whilst allowing for confounders, such as atmospheric conditions, and can be fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show how the
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Jumping on the bandwagon? Attendance response to recent victories in the NBA Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-10-28 Ercio Munoz, Jiadi Chen, Milan Thomas
This article studies whether a recent victory impacts attendance at sports events. We apply a regression discontinuity design to estimate the local average treatment effect of a win on the attendance of subsequent games in professional basketball. Using National Basketball Association data from seasons 1980–81 to 2017–18, we find that home team fan bases react to recent outcomes, with an increase in
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A goal based index to analyze the competitive balance of a football league Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-10-19 Soudeep Deb
Competitive balance in a football league is extremely important from the perspective of economic growth of the industry. Many researchers have earlier proposed different measures of competitive balance, which are primarily adapted from standard economic theory. However, these measures fail to capture the finer nuances of the game. In this work, we discuss a new framework which is more suitable for
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Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-10-17 Jason T. Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities in Division I NCAA men’s college basketball are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pregame win probability
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Individual role classification for players defending corners in football (soccer) Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-10-17 Pascal Bauer, Gabriel Anzer, Joshua Wyatt Smith
Choosing the right defensive corner-strategy is a crucial task for each coach in professional football (soccer). Although corners are repeatable and static situations, due to their low conversion rates, several studies in literature failed to find useable insights about the efficiency of various corner strategies. Our work aims to fill this gap. We hand-label the role of each defensive player from
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Quantifying the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Women’s World Cup tournaments 1991–2019 Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-10-17 Michael A. Lapré, Elizabeth M. Palazzolo
The FIFA Women’s World Cup tournament consists of a group stage and a knockout stage. We identify several issues that create competitive imbalance in the group stage. We use match data from all Women’s World Cup tournaments from 1991 through 2019 to empirically assess competitive imbalance across groups in each World Cup. Using least squares, we determine ratings for all teams. For each team, we average
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A Markov process approach to untangling intention versus execution in tennis Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-09-24 Timothy C. Y. Chan, Douglas S. Fearing, Craig Fernandes, Stephanie Kovalchik
Value functions are used in sports to determine the optimal action players should employ. However, most literature implicitly assumes that players can perform the prescribed action with known and fixed probability of success. The effect of varying this probability or, equivalently, “execution error” in implementing an action (e.g., hitting a tennis ball to a specific location on the court) on the design
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Does the ball lie? Testing the Rasheed Wallace hypothesis Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-08-10 Brian J. Meehan, Javier E. Portillo, Corey Jenkins
Former NBA all-star forward Rasheed Wallace popularized the catchphrase “Ball Don’t Lie.” Rasheed would often shout this after an opponent missed a free throw. It was used by Rasheed to illustrate the mental impact on a free throw shooter from knowing the foul was questionable and its impact on likelihood of converting the ensuing free throw. The tendency to miss free throws associated with questionable
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A reinforcement learning based approach to play calling in football Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-07-07 Preston Biro, Stephen G. Walker
With the vast amount of data collected on football and the growth of computing power, many games involving decision choices can be optimized. The underlying rule is the maximization of an expected utility of outcomes and the law of large numbers. The data available allows one to compute with high accuracy the probabilities of outcomes of actions, and the well defined points system in the game allows
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Clustering algorithms to increase fairness in collegiate wrestling Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-06-28 Nathan Carter, Andrew Harrison, Amar Iyengar, Matthew Lanham, Scott Nestler, Dave Schrader, Amir Zadeh
In NCAA Division III Wrestling, the question arose how to assign schools to regions in a way that optimizes fairness for individual wrestlers aspiring to the national tournament. The problem fell within cluster analysis but no known clustering algorithms supported its complex and interrelated set of needs. We created several bespoke clustering algorithms based on various heuristics (balanced optimization
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Influence of advanced footwear technology on sub-2 hour marathon and other top running performances Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-03-14 Andreu Arderiu, Raphaël de Fondeville
In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran a sub-two hour marathon wearing Nike’s Alphafly shoes. Despite being the fastest marathon time ever recorded, it wasn’t officially recognized as race conditions were tightly controlled to maximize his success. Besides, Kipchoge’s use of Alphafly shoes was controversial, with some experts claiming that they might have provided an unfair competitive advantage. In this work
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MSE-optimal K-factor of the Elo rating system for round-robin tournament Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-03-10 Victor Chan
The Elo rating system contains a coefficient called the K-factor which governs the amount of change to the updated ratings and is often determined by empirical or heuristic means. Theoretical studies on the K-factor have been sparse and not much is known about the pertinent factors that impact its appropriate values in applications. This paper has two main goals: to present a new formulation of the
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Optical tracking in team sports Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-03-07 Pegah Rahimian, Laszlo Toka
Sports analysis has gained paramount importance for coaches, scouts, and fans. Recently, computer vision researchers have taken on the challenge of collecting the necessary data by proposing several methods of automatic player and ball tracking. Building on the gathered tracking data, data miners are able to perform quantitative analysis on the performance of players and teams. With this survey, our
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Evaluating the performance of elite level volleyball players Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-02-25 Gilbert W. Fellingham
Evaluation of individuals in a team sport setting is inherently difficult. The level of play of one individual is fundamentally tied to the level of play of the teammates. One way to think about evaluation of individuals is to ‘insert’ the posterior distribution of the parameter that measures individual play into an ‘average’ team, and see how the probability of success (or failure) changes. Using
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G-Elo: generalization of the Elo algorithm by modeling the discretized margin of victory Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-02-10 Leszek Szczecinski
In this work we develop a new algorithm for rating of teams (or players) in one-on-one games by exploiting the observed difference of the game-points (such as goals), also known as a margin of victory (MOV). Our objective is to obtain the Elo-style algorithm whose operation is simple to implement and to understand intuitively. This is done in three steps: first, we define the probabilistic model between
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Frontmatter Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-12-01
Article Frontmatter was published on December 1, 2021 in the journal Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (volume 17, issue 4).
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Opening up the court: analyzing player performance across tennis Grand Slams Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Shannon K. Gallagher, Kayla Frisoli, Amanda Luby
In tennis, the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open are the four most prestigious events (Grand Slams). These four Grand Slams differ in the composition of the court surfaces, when they are played in the year, and which city hosts the players. Individual Grand Slams come with different expectations, and it is often thought that some players achieve better results at some Grand Slams
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Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches: the case against the ranked probability score Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Edward Wheatcroft
A scoring rule is a function of a probabilistic forecast and a corresponding outcome used to evaluate forecast performance. There is some debate as to which scoring rules are most appropriate for evaluating forecasts of sporting events. This paper focuses on forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. The ranked probability score (RPS) is often recommended since it is ‘sensitive to distance’, that
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Judging the judges: evaluating the accuracy and national bias of international gymnastics judges Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Sandro Heiniger, Hugues Mercier
We design, describe and implement a statistical engine to analyze the performance of gymnastics judges with three objectives: (1) provide constructive feedback to judges, executive committees and national federations; (2) assign the best judges to the most important competitions; (3) detect bias and persistent misjudging. Judging a gymnastics routine is a random process, and we model this process using
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Towards a more objective time standard in competitive rowing Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Kenneth M. Kimmins, Ming-Chang Tsai
Rowing needs a standardized Gold Medal Standard (GMS) to clearly compare performance across boat classes in competition. Here, we report a method to factor out environmental effects, developing a fairer GMS for individual rowing events. We used results from World Rowing Championships and Olympics Games (2005–2016) to calculate the difference between the fastest winning time of the day and other event
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Estimating player value in American football using plus–minus models Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-12-01 R. Paul Sabin
Calculating the value of football player’s on-field performance has been limited to scouting methods while data-driven methods are mostly limited to quarterbacks. A popular method to calculate player value in other sports are Adjusted Plus–Minus (APM) and Regularized Adjusted Plus–Minus (RAPM) models. These models have been used in other sports, most notably basketball (Rosenbaum, D. T. 2004. Measuring
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Frontmatter Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-06-01
Article Frontmatter was published on June 1, 2021 in the journal Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (volume 17, issue 2).
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A Bayesian marked spatial point processes model for basketball shot chart Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-06-01 Jieying Jiao, Guanyu Hu, Jun Yan
The success rate of a basketball shot may be higher at locations where a player makes more shots. For a marked spatial point process, this means that the mark and the intensity are associated. We propose a Bayesian joint model for the mark and the intensity of marked point processes, where the intensity is incorporated in the mark model as a covariate. Inferences are done with a Markov chain Monte
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How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches? Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-06-01 Leighton Vaughan Williams, Chunping Liu, Lerato Dixon, Hannah Gerrard
This paper examines the performance of five different measures for forecasting men’s and women’s professional tennis matches. We use data derived from every match played at the 2018 and 2019 Wimbledon tennis championships, the 2019 French Open, the 2019 US Open, and the 2020 Australian Open. We look at the betting odds, the official tennis rankings, the standard Elo ratings, surface-specific Elo ratings
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Algorithmically deconstructing shot locations as a method for shot quality in hockey Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-06-01 Devan G. Becker, Douglas G. Woolford, Charmaine B. Dean
Spatial point processes have been successfully used to model the relative efficiency of shot locations for each player in professional basketball games. Those analyses were possible because each player makes enough baskets to reliably fit a point process model. Goals in hockey are rare enough that a point process cannot be fit to each player’s goal locations, so novel techniques are needed to obtain