-
Speaking of Civilians: Automated Text Analysis of the United Nations’ Framing of Complex Humanitarian Emergencies International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Andrea Knapp
Since the end of the Cold War, the protection of civilians has increased its weight on the United Nations (UN) agenda. This article (1) maps the evolution of civilian protection within the UN frame...
-
Affinity or effectiveness? Donors’ preferences for bypass aid International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Susan Hannah Allen, Lauren Lee Ferry, Obaida Shammama
Western donors have progressively increased the amount of foreign aid allocated through bypass channels, particularly for recipients with weak domestic institutions. Rather than giving money direct...
-
The formation of attitudes toward immigration in Colombia International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Pablo Argote, Sarah Zukerman Daly
What explains elevated hostility toward immigrants? We identify two concerns that affect support for immigration: labor market competition and social proximity between immigrants and natives. Relyi...
-
Shifting Sands: How Change-Point and Community Detection Can Enrich Our Understanding of International Politics International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2024-02-18 Zhen Wang, Huimin Cheng, Wenxuan Zhong, Ping Ma, Amanda Murdie
When and how do international political arrangements change? International relations scholars have long examined the nature of shifts in international alliance and cooperation networks, often argui...
-
Public Opinion and Alliance Commitments in Cybersecurity an Attack against All? International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2024-02-12 Miguel Alberto Gomez, Gregory Winger
Cyber operations as a facet of international competition pose a direct challenge to alliances. Designed to respond to conventional military attacks, alliances like the North Atlantic Treaty Organiz...
-
Boon, bane, or business as usual: Perceptions of the economic consequences of peacekeeping withdrawal from Liberia International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2024-02-04 John Gledhill, Sabrina Karim
Existing studies show that the deployment of a peacekeeping operation (PKO) can provide an economic boost to the host state and its population. Some of those studies also suggest that such a boost ...
-
Release or Repress? The Effects of Economic Sanctions on Capital Account Openness International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-12-29 Joon Hyeok Lee
Despite the frequent use of economic sanctions by states, there are insufficient analyses of the collateral effects of these measures on target states. Under the sanctions, targeted leaders who pur...
-
The Incentives of Leaders in International Organizations: Evidence from the UN General Assembly International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-12-15 Alexander Baturo, Julia Gray
Voters and selectorates tend to prioritize domestic policy, so when and why do national political leaders choose to spend their time at international organizations (IOs)? Heads of state only began ...
-
Populism, Party Ideology, and Economic Expropriations International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-12-06 Stefano Jud, Dan Reiter
What is the connection between populism, globalization, and international political economy (IPE) more broadly? Many presume that all populists oppose all forms of globalization, focusing on trade,...
-
Lobbying, Access Points, and the Protection of Human Rights in Democracies International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-12-06 Sean D. Ehrlich, Kimberly R. Frugé, Jillienne Haglund
Why do some democracies better protect human rights than other democracies? Although research shows that democracies engage in fewer human rights abuses than nondemocracies, we know less about what...
-
Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-12-06 Johannes Bracher, Lotta Rüter, Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch, Melanie Schienle
In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting armed conflicts, posi...
-
Peaceful Conflict Resolution through Densely Gender-Equal International Organizations International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-12-06 Carly Millerd
How does the gender density of an international organization affect its members’ willingness to engage in non-violent dispute resolution? Many scholars have devoted time and energy to determine whe...
-
Significant Incidents against Americans Abroad: Introducing a New Dataset International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-11-27 Peyman Asadzade, Behzad Attarzadeh, Roya Izadi, Skip Mark, Almira Sadykova
This study introduces the Significant Incidents Against Americans Abroad (SIAAA) Dataset, the foremost systematic data compilation capturing antagonistic actions directed toward American nationals,...
-
The Impact of INGO Climate Shaming on National Laws International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-11-25 Faradj Koliev, Andreas Duit, Baekkwan Park
Does INGO climate shaming translate into actual climate laws, or is it ineffective in altering the behavior of governments? This article provides the first systematic assessment of whether and unde...
-
Shock Persistence and the Study of Armed Conflict: Empirical Biases and Some Remedies International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-10-13 Jenny Guardado, Steven Pennings
Poor employment prospects for potential insurgents are often thought to increase the intensity of armed conflict. A large empirical literature tries to identify the strength of this “opportunity co...
-
Looking to the Skies: Operation Unified Protector and the Strategy of Aerial Intervention International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-09-06 Emil Petersson
What are the different ways in which an intervener can use airpower to enhance a rebel organization’s ability to capture government-held territory? Multiple studies have analyzed how foreign airpow...
-
“Leave It as It Is”: International Network Effects on Protected Lands International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-07-31 Darren Hawkins, Jay Goodliffe
The protection of a portion of a country’s land is vital for sustainable economic growth and biodiversity, though land protection also imposes important costs. States have set aside a growing propo...
-
Can’t Live with Them or Can’t Live without Them? How Varying Roles of Women in Rebel Groups Influence One-Sided Violence International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-07-18 Baylee Harrell
How do women’s roles in rebel groups influence the perpetration of violence against civilians? Research regarding women rebels’ impact on armed group behavior produces mixed findings, warranting fu...
-
American Diasporas, Homeland Human Rights Conduct, and the Onset of Human Rights-Based Economic Sanctions International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-06-29 Jerry Urtuzuastigui
Why does the US government choose to initiate human rights-based economic sanctions against some highly repressive target countries, but not others? And, under what conditions does it do so? In thi...
-
Go arm me: How militant fragmentation affects external support International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-06-07 Mark Berlin, Iris Malone
Abstract Over the last 50 years, civil conflicts have grown increasingly complex due to the proliferation of new armed groups and rebel fragmentation. Yet, existing research on external support for armed groups often ignores this multi-actor dimension, overlooking the unusual amount of discretion sponsors have in deciding whom to support in any given target state. This paper explores how multi-militant
-
Soldiers and Protest: A Set-Theory Perspective on Military Repression of Anti-Regime Mass Mobilization in Autocracies International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-06-05 Tanja Eschenauer-Engler
This article studies the military’s decision to repress major, regime-threatening mass protests in autocracies or refuse violence from a set-theoretic perspective. So far, knowledge on such diametr...
-
Signaling Resolve through Credit-claiming International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-06-01 Ilayda B. Onder
What explains when militant groups claim attacks? In this study, I argue that militant groups are more likely to claim attacks early in the organization’s lifespan and after major blows to reputati...
-
A Wiki-based dataset of military operations with novel strategic technologies (MONSTr) International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-05-30 J. Andrés Gannon, Kerry Chávez
Abstract Research on strategies and force employment in modern warfare is prolific, but siloed. While some examine boots on the ground, others focus on aerial bombing or unpiloted platforms. Consequently, most studies focus on the effects of one approach, seldom considering it in lieu of or conjunction with others. Furthermore, there is less knowledge on the origins and implementations of these strategic
-
Unemployment, central bank independence, and diversionary conflict International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-05-29 Zhiyuan Wang
Abstract According to the diversionary use of force literature, unemployment as an indicator of poor economy should increase the likelihood of diversionary conflict. I argue, however, leaders do not engage in such conflict unconditionally simply when unemployment is rising. Whether worsening unemployment leads to diversionary conflict depends on the availability of policies that can alleviate the condition
-
Fear of terrorism and support for non-democratic rule in democracies International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-05-18 James A. Piazza
Abstract Does fear of terrorism prompt some residents of democracies to abandon the ideal of democratic rule and instead endorse non-democratic governance? If so, why? In this study, I theorize that fear of terrorism triggers intolerance of social outgroups which, in turn, contributes to the erosion of pro-democratic norms and embrace of authoritarian rule. I test this argument using an original survey
-
The micro-dynamics of conflict and peace: Evidence from Colombia International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-04-19 Santiago Sosa
Abstract This article introduces the special issue “The Micro-dynamics of Conflict and Peace: Evidence from Colombia.” It contributes to the burgeoning literature on the study of micro-dynamics in peace and conflict studies, with a special empirical focus on the Colombian case. The contributors to the special issue use a variety of methods and interdisciplinary approaches to study questions regarding
-
UN Security Council membership: Increased security and reduced conflict International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-04-12 Alastair Smith, James Raymond Vreeland
Abstract United Nations Security Council (UNSC) membership comes with privileges. Existing research shows that the world’s most powerful countries funnel financial favors to governments elected to the UNSC, arguably to influence their votes on matters of international importance. This study investigates whether these governments, whose election elevates them to prominent positions of power, also receive
-
Punish or tolerate? State capacity, military oversight, and wartime sexual violence International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-04-12 Sumin Lee, Andrey Tomashevskiy
Abstract How does government oversight of the military affect the occurrence of wartime sexual violence? This paper highlights the role of civil-military relations and state capacity in the occurrence of sexual violence. Building on research that examines wartime sexual violence in the principal-agent framework, we propose a game-theoretic model in which the military deploys wartime sexual violence
-
The populist radical right and military intervention: A coincidence analysis of military deployment votes International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-04-04 Tim Haesebrouck
Abstract Although populist radical right (PRR) parties have been studied intensively for the last few decades, only very few comparative studies on the parliamentary behavior of PRR parties have been conducted. This article aims to fill this gap in academic research by examining the pattern of PRR voting on military deployments. More specifically, it examines under what conditions PRR parties support
-
Sanctions and target public opinion: Experimental evidence from Turkey International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-04-04 Omer Zarpli
Abstract The research on economic sanctions effectiveness has highlighted the importance of public opinion. Yet the effect of sanctions on public opinion has attracted relatively limited scholarly attention. The few recent studies on this question report mixed findings. In this essay, I investigate the role of uncertainty over intentions in influencing public support for policy change in the target
-
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and votes in favor of Russia in the UN General Assembly International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-28 Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, Hassan F. Gholipour
Abstract Why did some countries decline to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly’s first emergency session since 1997? Our research investigates the various economic, military, political, geographic, and historical factors that may have influenced the voting behavior of these countries in favor of Russia. Our Probit regressions reveal that the probability of voting
-
Control, dispute, and concentration of land during civil war: Evidence from Colombia International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-27 Jose Antonio Fortou, Sandra Lillian Johansson, Juan Carlos Muñoz Mora
Abstract How are patterns of armed control and dispute by armed actors related to land concentration, land property rights, and distribution? We argue that armed actors affect land tenure by using different land transfer mechanisms to distribute the land, which reflects the dynamics of control and dispute during civil conflict. We test this argument by studying the case of Urabá, a region in northwestern
-
Burden sharing in UN peacekeeping operations: Who deploys to violent locations? International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-24 Jared Oestman
Abstract Which countries deploy troops to violent locations within UN peacekeeping operations? Troop contributing countries face different incentives to participate in peacekeeping operations. These motivating factors should also condition their willingness to take on risks to implement mission mandates. I argue that states motivated to ensure the effectiveness of an operation as well as states that
-
Are many sets of eyes better than one? Evaluating multiple databases of armed actors in Colombia International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-24 Javier Osorio
Abstract In contrast to the pervasive scarcity of disaggregated data affecting sub-national conflict studies, Colombia concentrates a wealth of databases measuring armed actors. How comparable are these databases? What are the implications of their differences for statistical inference? This research compares seven prominent sub-national measures of armed actors in Colombia. Using the Jaccard Similarity
-
Military in the Cabinet and defense spending of civilian governments International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-17 Nazmus Sakib, Md Muhibbur Rahman
Abstract In this article, we assess the variation in civilian governments’ defense spending as a function of civil-military relations. We present a novel explanation based on the military’s presence in the political decision-making apparatus. We argue that the appointment of an active military officer in a key governmental position allows the government to make a more credible commitment to provide
-
IMF: International Migration Fund International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-12 Merih Angin, Albana Shehaj, Adrian J. Shin
Abstract Existing models of international organizations focus on the strategic and commercial interests of major shareholders to explain why some countries secure better deals from international organizations. Focusing on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we argue that the Fund’s major shareholders pressure the IMF to minimize short-term adjustment costs in the borrowing country when they host
-
Getting to yes: The role of creditor coordination in debt restructuring negotiations International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-09 Lauren Ferry
Abstract How do indebted governments restructure their debts with private creditors? What explains variation in indebted states’ negotiating behavior? Existing explanations of debt restructuring have largely treated creditors as a profit-maximizing monolith; Yet creditors have different exposures, ties to borrowers, and roles in the international banking system. Inter-creditor disputes are common.
-
A network analysis of naming and shaming in the universal periodic review International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-03-05 Yooneui Kim
Abstract What decides naming and shaming behavior of states? In the present paper I examine state recommendations in the Universal Periodic Review and show that naming and shaming is inherently a social phenomenon and network analysis can contribute to the better understanding of this broader social context. Using original qualitative data collected from Geneva, Switzerland, I develop a theory of the
-
Making Sense of Violence in Semi-Technologized Conventional Civil War: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century Japan International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-02-25 Yuichi Kubota, Gaku Ito, Masataka Harada
Abstract While existing studies highlight features of violence in conventional civil wars, they overlook how war technology is linked to the tactics of armed forces. To shed light on the understudied phenomenon of semi-technologized regular forces in a civil war, this article explores why and how violence is executed by such forces. To do so, we examine patterns of violence in the Boshin War that took
-
Repression and backlash protests: Why leader arrests backfire International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2023-01-18 Felix Schulte, Christoph V. Steinert
Abstract This study investigates how different targets of state-sanctioned arrests shape the likelihood of collective action. We hypothesize that leader arrests are especially likely to result in backlash protests. Leader arrests symbolize the suppression of social collectives, they create collective grievances, and constitute focal points for mobilization. Building on a global sample of arrests of
-
International Interactions best paper award 2022 International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-12-28 Jeffrey Pickering
Published in International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations (Vol. 48, No. 6, 2022)
-
The Strong, the Weak, and the Honored: Examining the decline in honored alliances post-1945 International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-12-19 Soyoung Lee
Abstract The rate at which states defend their allies in war has dropped from 81% during 1816–1944 to 7% in 1945–2016. I attribute the decline in honored alliances to a dramatic shift in the military capability of alliances. Contrary to the popular belief that alliances have become stronger after 1945, I find that the post-1945 international system also witnessed a significant increase in the number
-
Introducing the Warring-States Japan Battle Data International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-12-12 Nicholas D. Anderson
Abstract This article introduces the “Warring-States Japan Battle Data,” a new dataset covering 2,889 battles occurring within Japan during its Warring-States period, from 1467 to 1600. The dataset contains fifteen variables covering various features of the battles, including the date, location, participants, initiators, and victors, among others. This article introduces the sources of the data, describes
-
Local competitive authoritarianism and post-conflict violence. An analysis of the assassination of social leaders in Colombia International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-11-23 Juan Albarracín, Juan Pablo Milanese, Inge H. Valencia, Jonas Wolff
Abstract The threat of continued violence is a primary concern in post-conflict societies. This article contributes to the literature on post-conflict violence by analyzing a specific phenomenon that has characterized Colombia since the signing of the 2016 peace agreement: the assassination of social leaders. Building on explanations that emphasize state weakness, illicit economies, and the role of
-
Reputation or interaction: What determines cooperation on economic sanctions? International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-11-18 Dawid Walentek
Abstract This article studies cooperation on multilateral economic sanctions. Despite low effectiveness and sanction-busting, multilateral economic sanctions are a popular tool of foreign policy. We explore an instrumental approach to sanctions and develop a game theory framework where sender states face a collective action problem when coordinating multilateral coercion. We indicate that cooperation
-
Correction International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-10-26
Published in International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations (Vol. 48, No. 4, 2022)
-
Estimating ideal points from UN General Assembly sponsorship data International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-09-14 Rafael Mesquita, Rodrigo Martins, Pedro Seabra
Abstract The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) represents a microcosm of global politics that offers a valuable snapshot of interstate relations and state preferences. In this context, roll-call votes and measures of voting affinity often receive the bulk of scholarly attention. However, even though techniques such as ideal point estimation have grown more sophisticated over time when applied
-
Diffusion of protests in the Arab Spring International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-09-13 Christopher S. P. Magee, Tansa George Massoud
Abstract This paper examines how protests spread across countries in the 2011 Arab Spring. Based on the diffusion literature, we form hypotheses about the factors that influence the transmission of protests across borders. To test the hypotheses, we use an events data set measuring media reports of protests, government reforms, and acts of repression on a daily basis by country. We show that the strength
-
Sexual violence along ethnic lines? Revisiting rebel-civilian ethnic ties and wartime sexual violence International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-09-08 Herman Wieselgren
Abstract Previous research suggests that wartime sexual violence by rebel groups should generally be committed between rather than within ethnic groups. Since rebels can mobilize through and draw support from coethnic civilian networks, they should be less prone to commit sexual violence against their ethnic brethren. Moreover, ethnic divisions between groups are argued to spur inter-ethnic sexual
-
Is terrorism deadlier in democracies? International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-09-08 Yufan Yang, Joshua Tschantret, Cody Schmidt
Abstract A long literature examines the relationship between terrorism and democracy. However, little research examines the lethality of terrorist attacks across regime type. This article theorizes the terrorism that democracies do experience will be less deadly. Democracy increases the opportunity for nonstate actors to use terrorism to attract attention to their causes, which we argue also mitigates
-
How women promote peace: Gender composition, duration, and frames in conflict resolution International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-09-06 Vivian P. Ta-Johnson, Eric Keels, A. Burcu Bayram
Abstract Research shows that the inclusion of women in negotiations and conflict resolution efforts contributes to peaceful solutions to disputes and armed conflict. Yet we know little about how women contribute to peacebuilding. What, specifically, are women doing to help produce more peaceful outcomes? We present evidence from an international bargaining experiment showing that women contribute to
-
Forecasting change in conflict fatalities with dynamic elastic net International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-08-08 Fulvio Attinà, Marcello Carammia, Stefano M. Iacus
Abstract This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to account for the specificity of conflict drivers and processes over time and space, we model conflicts in each individual country separately. Second, we draw on
-
When the levee breaks: A forecasting model of violent and nonviolent dissent International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-08-08 Jonathan Pinckney, Babak RezaeeDaryakenari
Abstract Forecasting major political conflicts is a long-time interest in conflict research. However, the literature thus far has focused almost exclusively on armed conflicts such as civil wars. Attempts to forecast primarily unarmed conflicts have yet to identify a model able to forecast such uprisings with a high degree of accuracy. This thorny forecasting problem may in part be due to the literature’s
-
Predicting political violence using a state-space model International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-07-21 Andreas Lindholm, Johannes Hendriks, Adrian Wills, Thomas B. Schön
Abstract We provide a proof-of-concept for a novel state-space modelling approach for predicting monthly deaths due to political violence. Attention is focused on developing the method and demonstrating the utility of this approach, which provides exciting opportunities to engage with domain experts in developing new and improved state-space models for predicting violence. The prediction is made on
-
Government ideology and bailout conditionality in the European financial crisis International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-07-08 Federica Genovese, Héctor Hermida-Rivera
Abstract The political economy literature on international bailouts has repeatedly shown that the domestic politics of rescued countries influence international bailout compliance. However, we know less about the domestic politics of bailout negotiations, and especially the type of conditions negotiated by governments of more developed countries with strong ties to international lenders. This paper
-
Lessons from an escalation prediction competition International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-06-28 Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi
Abstract Recent research on the forecasting of violence has mostly focused on predicting the presence or absence of conflict in a given location, while much less attention has been paid to predicting changes in violence. We organized a prediction competition to forecast changes in state-based violence both for the true future and for a test partition. We received contributions from 15 international
-
International human rights recommendations at home: Introducing the Women’s Rights Compliance Database (WRCD) International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-06-24 Jillienne Haglund, Courtney Hillebrecht, Hannah Roesch Read
Abstract The legalization of international human rights has led to an explosion in the number of recommendations states receive each year regarding their domestic human rights practices. How do states respond to these recommendations, some of which may ask them to engage in significant domestic human rights reform? In this article, we introduce the Women’s Rights Compliance Database (WRCD), which allows
-
Do consumers follow the flag? Perceptions of hostility and consumer preferences International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-06-24 Matthew DiGiuseppe, Colin M. Barry
Abstract Do consumers discriminate against foreign products made in countries they deem adversarial? While previous studies have examined how nationalist boycotts influence trade, there is little evidence consumers “follow the flag” more generally. In this study, we employ a conjoint choice survey experiment in the United States and India to assess how individuals’ geopolitical attitudes affect their
-
Why “cheap” threats are meaningful: Threat perception and resolve in North Korean propaganda International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-06-17 Lauren Sukin
Abstract Threatening propaganda—particularly when extreme and frequent—is often considered “cheap talk.” However, this article argues systematic and comprehensive analysis of such threats can still lend valuable insights. In particular, the aggregate content of threats reveals information about the threat perceptions of the messenger, while the frequency of threats provides information about the messenger’s
-
Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence International Interactions (IF 1.226) Pub Date : 2022-05-10 Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh
Abstract This article proposes a new method for predicting escalations and de-escalations of violence using a model which relies on conflict history and text features. The text features are generated from over 3.5 million newspaper articles using a so-called topic-model. We show that the combined model relies to a large extent on conflict dynamics, but that text is able to contribute meaningfully to