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National assessments of money laundering risks: Stumbling at the start Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Joras Ferwerda, Peter Reuter
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) requires national governments to demonstrate an understanding of the distribution of money laundering risks across different sectors of the financial system. Such understanding is the foundation for effective control of money laundering under the risk‐based approach called for by the FATF. We analyzed the National Risk Assessments (NRAs) of eight systemically
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Optimal risk management considering environmental and climatic changes Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Ramzi Benkraiem, Youssef El‐Khatib, Jun Fan, Stéphane Goutte, Tony Klein
Climate change presents challenges to policy and economic stability, necessitating effective trading strategies to reduce environmental risks. This article addresses gaps in existing studies by using a Markov‐switching model to consider climate risk. Backward stochastic differential equations are used to optimize utility with three hedging strategies based on the concept of risk aversion. Numerical
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Probabilistic risk assessment of residential exposure to electric arc furnace steel slag using Bayesian model of relative bioavailability and PBPK modeling of manganese Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Liz Mittal, Camarie S. Perry, Alexander D. Blanchette, Deborah M. Proctor
Electric arc furnace (EAF) slag is a coproduct of steel production used primarily for construction purposes. Some applications of EAF slag result in residential exposures by incidental ingestion and inhalation of airborne dust. To evaluate potential health risks, an EAF slag characterization program was conducted to measure concentrations of metals and leaching potential (including oral bioaccessibility)
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Impact assessment of mandatory safety device installation for gas stoves Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Shunsuke Saito, Hironobu Kawamura
Numerous fire accidents have occurred in Japan owing to food overheating when cooking on gas stoves because users left the cooking area unattended. In response, authorities enacted a legal revision mandating temperature sensor installation on gas stove burners. Nevertheless, the actual effectiveness of this measure remains uncertain. Furthermore, prior studies have raised concerns about the efficacy
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Trends in Salmonella Infantis human illness incidence and chicken carcass prevalence in the United States; 1996–2019 Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Mark R. Powell, Michael S. Williams
The incidence of human illness due to Salmonella Infantis reported to Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network and the prevalence of Infantis on chicken carcasses reported by the United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service have increased significantly in the past decade. However, the trends do not appear coincident, as would be expected if the increased prevalence
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Identification of key potential risk areas and key potential failure modes in hemodialysis rooms by the FMEA method following routine prevention and control of the COVID‐19 pandemic Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Yingying Ruan, Qijun Hong, Lili Feng, Ching‐Wen Chien, Kai Sun, Yen‐Ching Chuang, Fuqin Tang
Hemodialysis is an important part of nosocomial infection prevention and control (IPC). This study aimed to identify the key potential risk areas and failure modes in hemodialysis rooms in hospitals and put forward a series of improvement measures to prevent and control the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). Hemodialysis patients are highly susceptible to COVID‐19 and usually have a
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Interdependent network restoration games with incomplete information and bounded rationality Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Hesam Talebiyan, Leonardo Duenas‐Osorio
Communities face the challenge of finding restoration strategies in the aftermath of disasters. In particular, independent and self‐interested utility managers devise such strategies for infrastructure through a heuristic decentralized process. This paper takes a game‐theoretic approach to model the decentralized and strategic restoration decision making with application to interdependent infrastructure
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Artificial intelligence for risk analysis—A risk characterization perspective on advances, opportunities, and limitations Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-11 Kaia Stødle, Roger Flage, Seth Guikema, Terje Aven
Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen numerous applications for risk analysis and provides ample opportunities for developing new and improved methods and models for this purpose. In the present article, we conceptualize the use of AI for risk analysis by framing it as an input–algorithm–output process and linking such a setup to three tasks in establishing a risk description: consequence characterization
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The synergy effect of multi‐country policy actions announced in reaction to global risk: A network structure perspective Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Jiuchang Wei, Junkai Ji, Yi‐Na Li
The policy actions of countries reflect adaptive responses of local components within the system to the dynamic global risk landscape. These responses can generate interactions and synergy effects on alleviating the evolution of global risks. Adopting a network perspective, the study proposes a theoretical framework that connects three structural characteristics of policy synergy, namely, synergy scale
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Lessons identified from applications of the Risk Analysis Quality Test Release 1.0 Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Robert Waller, Margaret Coleman, Samuel Denard, Emma Soane
The Risk Analysis Quality Test Release 1.0 (RAQT1.0) was developed as a framework to encourage mutual understanding between technical risk analysts and risk management decision makers of risk assessment quality indicators. The initial version (release 1.0) was published by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in 2020 with the intent of learning from early test applications whether the approach was useful
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The determinants of legislation for radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF‐EMFs) with the onset of 5G: An empirical analysis with a worldwide cross‐sectional dataset Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Laura Recuero Virto, Marek Czerwiński, Jérémy Froidevaux
The unprecedented exposure of radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF‐EMF) to humans from mobile communications raises serious public concern about the possibility of unexpected adverse health effects and has stimulated authorities to adopt precautionary exposure limits. These limits are distinctly different across countries, and the causes of these differences are unclear from the literature. This
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Exposure to heat wave risks across time and places: Seasonal variations and predictors of feelings of threat across heat wave geographical susceptibility locations Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-22 Samuel Domingos, Rui Gaspar, João Marôco
Vulnerability to heat waves and their negative effects on health vary not only due to individual factors but also due to situational factors, such as time and geography. Hence, we explored seasonal variations and predictors of heat wave feelings of threat across different heat wave geographical susceptibility locations in Portugal. A total of 238 Portuguese residents responded to a web‐based longitudinal
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The Wells–Riley model revisited: Randomness, heterogeneity, and transient behaviours Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-19 Alexander J. Edwards, Marco‐Felipe King, Catherine J. Noakes, Daniel Peckham, Martín López‐García
The Wells–Riley model has been widely used to estimate airborne infection risk, typically from a deterministic point of view (i.e., focusing on the average number of infections) or in terms of a per capita probability of infection. Some of its main limitations relate to considering well‐mixed air, steady‐state concentration of pathogen in the air, a particular amount of time for the indoor interaction
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Mitigating imported fuel dependency in agricultural production: Case study of an island nation's vulnerability to global catastrophic risks Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-17 Matt Boyd, Sam Ragnarsson, Simon Terry, Ben Payne, Nick Wilson
A major global catastrophe would likely disrupt trade in liquid fuels. Countries dependent on imported oil products might struggle to sustain industrial agriculture. Island nations importing 100% of refined fuels are particularly vulnerable. Our case study aimed to estimate the agricultural land area and biofuel volumes needed to feed the population of New Zealand in the absence of trade. Results showed
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Rage against the machine? Framing societal threat and efficacy in YouTube videos about artificial intelligence Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-17 Andreas Schwarz, Janina Jacqueline Unselt
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of the mainstream public discourse beyond expert communities about its risks, benefits, and need for regulation. In particular, since 2014, the news media have intensified their coverage of this emerging technology and its potential impact on most domains of society. Although many studies have analyzed traditional media coverage of AI, analyses of social
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Intuitive toxicology in the 21st century—Bridging the perspectives of the public and risk assessors in Europe Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Angela Bearth, Nicolas Roth, Martin F. Wilks, Michael Siegrist
Three decades ago, several articles on the subjectivity in chemical risk judgments (i.e., labeled “intuitive toxicology”) measured the divide between the public and toxicologists with different backgrounds regarding the validity of predicting health effects based on in vivo studies. Similar divides with impacts on societal discourse and chemical risk assessment practices might exist concerning alternative
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Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Xin Chen, Fatema Kalyar, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Chandini Raina MacIntyre
The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow–Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS‐COV‐2. The mGFT scores
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The need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Amro Nasr, Oskar Larsson Ivanov, Ivar Björnsson, Jonas Johansson
Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost‐effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of
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Modeling prevention behaviors during the COVID‐19 pandemic using Bayesian belief networks and protection motivation theory Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Brent Vizanko, Leonid Kadinski, Christopher Cummings, Avi Ostfeld, Emily Zechman Berglund
Prevention behaviors are important in mitigating the transmission of COVID‐19. The protection motivation theory (PMT) links perceptions of risk and coping ability with the act of adopting prevention behaviors. The goal of this research is to test the application of the PMT in predicting adoption of prevention behaviors during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Two research objectives are achieved to explore motivating
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Effect of earthquake sequences on risk‐based catastrophe bond pricing Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Harsh K. Mistry, Andres Hernandez, Philippe Guéguen, Domenico Lombardi
Catastrophe bonds (cat bond in short) are an alternative risk‐transfer instrument used to transfer peril‐specific financial risk from governments, financial institutions, or (re)insurers, to the capital market. Current approaches for cat bond pricing are calibrated on seismic mainshocks, and thus do not account for potential effects induced by earthquake sequences. This simplifying assumption implies
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Is the “avoidance” group truly defensive? The interplay between perceived risk, efficacy, and behaviors Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Ruobing Li
This study examines the inconsistent theories surrounding the roles of perceived threat and efficacy in risk communication theories, focusing on behavioral changes during a public health crisis. Utilizing a two‐wave panel survey, the research found a nuanced interaction between efficacy beliefs and risk perceptions in dictating individuals’ engagement in protective or defensive behaviors. Notably,
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How do navy escorts influence piracy risk in East Africa? A Bayesian network approach Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Hanwen Fan, Zheng Chang, Haiying Jia, Xuzhuo He, Jing Lyu
Navy escorts are considered crucial in countering illegal piracy attacks. In this paper, a novel approach is developed to investigate the effect of navy escorts on piracy incidents by models based on two enhanced Tree‐Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayesian networks. This approach offers a systematic investigation into the various factors that influence pirate activities, and helps to identify changes in piracy
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Weighing structural damage and social susceptibility: A decision‐making tool to perform longitudinal studies of geographically large hazard events Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-23 Blythe Johnston, John van de Lindt
Geographically large climatic hazard events are occurring more frequently, and with this increase, more research emphasis is being placed on their impact. However, a metrology for selecting which communities to survey following an event is not frequently discussed and as a result does not effectively incorporate all relevant disciplines in disaster research. This article provides a method for selecting
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Assessing the incorporation of latent variables in the estimation of the value of a statistical life Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-23 Manuel Barrientos, Felipe Vásquez Lavín, Roberto D. Ponce Oliva
For many years, the economic literature has recognized the role of attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions in estimating the value of a statistical life (VSL). However, few applications have attempted to include them. This article incorporates the perceived controllability and concern about traffic and cardiorespiratory risks to estimate VSL using a hybrid choice model (HCM). The HCM allows us to include
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Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Sabri Boubaker, Zhenya Liu, Yuhao Mu, Yaosong Zhan
The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO2 emissions from both a long and short‐term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change‐point detection analysis shows that there has
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Seeking information about waste-to-energy incineration projects: The role of objective knowledge and benefit perceptions in an extended PRISM Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Jing Zeng, Hongyu Duan, Zhonglin Zhou, Jingyan Song
Although waste-to-energy (WtE) incineration projects have boosted the economic effectiveness of the waste management system, locals frequently view them with suspicion, opposition, or even outright rejection because of potential environmental and health risks. In this study, by incorporating two additional variables, namely, objective knowledge and benefit perceptions, the planned risk information
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Hit-and-run or hit-and-stay? Unintended effects of a stricter BAC limit Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Michael T. French, Gulcin Gumus
Although they comprise a relatively small subset of all traffic deaths, hit-and-run (HR) fatalities are both contemptible and preventable. We analyze longitudinal data from 1982 to 2008 to examine the effects of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) laws on HR traffic fatalities. Our results suggest that lower BAC limits may have an unintended consequence of increasing HR fatalities, whereas a similar
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Exploring the exponential sensitivity of risk perception in the COVID-19 pandemic Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Min-Kyu Kim, Bo-Eun Lee, Ji-Bum Chung
Individual's risk perception regarding specific hazards is a dynamic process that evolves over time. This study analyzed the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and the South Korean public's risk perceptions from the outset of the pandemic to the recent past. More than 70 repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted biweekly to measure individuals’ risk perception. An autoregressive
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Pollution risk and life insurance decisions: Microgeographic evidence from the United Kingdom Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 Morakinyo O. Adetutu, Kayode A. Odusanya, Simona Rasciute, Eleni Stathopoulou
Recent research documents that exposure to air pollution can trigger various behavioral reactions. This article presents novel empirical evidence on the causal effect of pollution risk on life insurance decisions. We create a unique dataset by linking microgeographic air quality information to the confidential UK Wealth and Assets Survey. We identify an inverse N-shape relationship between pollution
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Efficient border biosecurity inspection leverages superspreading to reduce biological invasion risk Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 Raphaël Trouvé, Andrew P. Robinson
Biological invasions are a growing threat to biodiversity, food security, and economies. Rising pressure from increased global trade requires improving border inspection efficiency. Here, we depart from the conventional consignment-by-consignment approach advocated in current inspection standards. Instead, we suggest a broader perspective: evaluating border inspection regimes based on their ability
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Individual heat adaptation: Analyzing risk communication, warnings, heat risk perception, and protective behavior in three German cities Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Anna Heidenreich, Annegret H. Thieken
Extreme heat poses severe health threats, as the increased numbers of hospitalizations and fatalities during heat waves show, though little is known about adaptive behavior toward heat. We conducted a household survey on individual perceptions of heat stress and individual heat protection in the summer and autumn of 2019. In total, 1417 people from three medium-sized German cities participated via
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Scenario development for safety assessment in deep geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel: A review Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-31 Kristopher L. Kuhlman, Jeroen Bartol, Alexander Carter, Andree Lommerzheim, Jens Wolf
Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's
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Reconciling risk as threat and opportunity: The social construction of risk in boardrooms Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-30 Cormac Bryce, Simon Ashby, Patrick Ring
Board directing is a continuous process of risk analysis and control in response to the duality of risk as threat and opportunity. Judgments are made and remade to simultaneously reduce the potential for damaging threats (e.g., fraud, reputation damage), while exploiting opportunities (e.g., new product development, mergers and acquisitions). Adopting an institutional logics approach, we explore this
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“There's a little bit of mistrust”: Red River Métis experiences of the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-29 S. Michelle Driedger, Ryan Maier, Gabriela Capurro, Cindy Jardine, Jordan Tustin, Frances Chartrand, Julianne Sanguins, Olena Kloss
We examined the perspectives of the Red River Métis citizens in Manitoba, Canada, during the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics and how they interpreted the communication of government/health authorities’ risk management decisions. For Indigenous populations, pandemic response strategies play out within the context of ongoing colonial relationships with government institutions characterized by significant
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Managing risk and resilience in autonomous and intelligent systems: Exploring safety in the development, deployment, and use of artificial intelligence in healthcare Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-21 Carl Macrae
Autonomous and intelligent systems (AIS) are being developed and deployed across a wide range of sectors and encompass a variety of technologies designed to engage in different forms of independent reasoning and self-directed behavior. These technologies may bring considerable benefits to society but also pose a range of risk management challenges, particularly when deployed in safety-critical sectors
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Security screening metrics for information-sharing partnerships Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-21 Wendy Yu, Zachary A. Collier, Shital Thekdi
Recent history has shown both the benefits and risks of information sharing among firms. Information is shared to facilitate mutual business objectives. However, information sharing can also introduce security-related concerns that could expose the firm to a breach of privacy, with significant economic, reputational, and safety implications. It is imperative for organizations to leverage available
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Differential effects of digital media platforms on climate change risk information-sharing intention: A moderated mediation model Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-13 Hye-Jin Paek, Hyun Jung Oh, Thomas Hove
This study analyzes the mechanisms through which risk messages about climate change lead to people's risk information-sharing intention, and how digital media platform type serves as a context that moderates those mechanisms. Our analysis is informed by the influence of presumed influence (IPI) model, and we adapt and expand that model in three ways. First, we apply the concept of perceived media reach
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Why did US urban homicide spike in 2020? A cross-sectional data analysis for the largest American cities Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-13 Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, Arnold Barnett
Working with data about homicide victims and perpetrators from 50 of America's largest cities, we investigate the explanatory power of some familiar explanations for why murder in those cities rose sharply in 2020. The analysis reveals that the distribution of risk by race was essentially the same in 2020 as in 2019. That empirical finding challenges some theories of how racial tensions after the death
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The 8 billion milestone: Risk perceptions of global population growth among UK and US residents Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-11 Ian G. J. Dawson, Danni Zhang
In November 2022, the global human population reached 8 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion by 2060. Theories, models, and evidence indicate that global population growth (GPG) increases the likelihood of many adverse outcomes, such as biodiversity loss, climate change, mass migrations, wars, and resource shortages. A small body of research indicates that many individuals are concerned about
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Preferences in AI algorithms: The need for relevant risk attitudes in automated decisions under uncertainties Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-06 Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve life and reduce risks by providing large amounts of information embedded in big databases and by suggesting or implementing automated decisions under uncertainties. Yet, in the design of a prescriptive AI algorithm, some problems may occur, first and clearly, if the AI information is wrong or incomplete. But the main point of this article is
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Game-theoretic algorithm for interdependent infrastructure network restoration in a decentralized environment Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2024-01-04 Alireza Rangrazjeddi, Andrés D. González, Kash Barker
Having reliable interdependent infrastructure networks is vital for well-being of a safe and productive society. Systems are vulnerable to failure or performance loss due to their interdependence among various networks, as each failure can propagate through the whole system. Although the conventional view has concentrated on optimizing the restoration of critical interdependent infrastructure networks
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Dissecting climate change risk and financial market instability: Implications for ecological risk management Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-30 Feng Ma, Jiawei Cao, Yizhi Wang, Samuel A. Vigne, Dayong Dong
This research investigates the impact of climate challenges on financial markets by introducing an innovative approach to measure climate risk, specifically the aggregate climate change concern (ACCC) index. The study aims to assess and quantify the potential influence of climate change and risk-related factors on the performance and dynamics of financial markets. In this paper, concern is defined
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Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-18 Teun Schrieks, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Oliver V. Wasonga, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
The Horn of Africa Drylands are increasingly experiencing severe droughts, which impose a threat on traditional livelihood strategies. Understanding adaptation behavior in rural communities is key to helping reduce the impact of these droughts. We investigate adaptation behavior by assessing four established economic and social psychological theories on decision making under risk: expected utility
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When increasing risk perception does not work. Using behavioral psychology to increase smoke alarm ownership Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-14 Patty Jansen, Chris Snijders, Martijn C. Willemsen
The central question of our study is which determinants drive smoke alarm ownership and intention to purchase one, and whether we can increase smoke alarm ownership by addressing these determinants in a communication-based intervention. We first made an inventory of possible determinants for smoke alarm prevention by consulting prominent prevention behavior theories protection motivation theory and
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A global study of screening intensity and economic status on epidemic control performance during various epidemic periods of COVID-19 mutant strains Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-11 Chao-Chin Chang, Chia-Lin Chang
This study analyzed global data on epidemic control measures and economic conditions in different countries during different mutant strain epidemic periods, including the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron strains. The study estimated the elasticity coefficient through a log-log model, which represents the percent change of the confirmed case number with respect to a percent change in the total number of screening
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Risk perception and interpersonal discussion on risk: A systematic literature review Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Sara Perlstein
Risk perception research has long been attentive to the fact that risk is a social construction. Nevertheless, this fact has not been integrated into empirical research in any systematic manner. Empirical studies that do focus on the social construction of risk often do so from very different positions and with different objectives in mind. Interpersonal discussion, while considered an important medium
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Sensitivity analysis for a participatory approach to enhance the climate resilience of Venice, Italy Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Beatrice Sambo, Marcello Sano, Anna Sperotto, Marco Zanetti, Silvia Torresan, James H. Lambert, Igor Linkov, Andrea Critto
Increases in the magnitudes and frequencies of climate-related extreme events are redistributing risk across coastal systems, including their environmental, economic, and social components. Consequently, stakeholders (SHs) are faced with long-term challenges and complex information when managing assets, services, and uses of the coast. In this context, SH engagement is a key step for risk management
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Complexity for complexity—How advanced modeling may limit its applicability for decision-makers Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-03 Ben J. M. Ale, David H. Slater
As today's engineering systems have become increasingly sophisticated, assessing the efficacy of their safety-critical systems has become much more challenging. The more classical methods of “failure” analysis by decomposition into components related by logic trees, such as fault and event trees, root cause analysis, and failure mode and effects analysis lead to models that do not necessarily behave
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Risk science applied to major risk events in history Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-30 Shital Thekdi, Terje Aven
Major risk events in history are often labeled as black swans or as unforeseeable given the risk policies and procedures existing at the time. Hindsight suggests that many of these events could have been foreseeable. This article explores past risk events, (1) analyzes how risk science principles apply to those events, and (2) studies gaps and opportunities for risk science using the lenses of consequences
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Understanding the implications of low knowledge and high uncertainty in risk studies Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-30 Shital Thekdi, Terje Aven
Risk analysis has existed for thousands of years and will continue to grow in importance across professions and industries. Of special importance is the need to understand and manage risk when there is low knowledge and high uncertainties. Even with pristine and high-quality risk analysis in these situations, integrity and credibility can be questioned, and risk events can happen. Although these issues
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Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic: Mortality impacts in Poland versus European Union Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-29 Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Kristie L. Ebi, Jerzy Duszyński
With COVID-19 moving toward an endemic phase, it is worthwhile to identify lessons from the pandemic that can promote the effective strengthening of national health systems. We look at a single country, Poland, and compare it with the European Union (EU) to contrast approaches and outcomes. Among possible relevant indices, we examine characteristics of COVID-19-related mortality and excess all-cause
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Integrating irrational behavior into flood risk models to test the outcomes of policy interventions Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-29 Linda Geaves, Jim Hall, Edmund Penning-Rowsell OBE
Householders are increasingly responsible for managing residual flood risk at property level. Yet, consumers are observed to adopt irrational behaviors under scenarios of risk, often making suboptimal decisions. Therefore, the question is raised, if householders are required to manage flood risk at household level, how can this be made fair and efficient? Policy instruments often incorporate “fairness”
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Thomas Burke: Blending practice and academia at the highest levels. Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-27 Michael R Greenberg,Karen Lowrie
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Robert Budnitz-Tinkerer, experimenter, and nuclear safety promoter. Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-27 Michael Greenberg,Karen Lowrie
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A machine learning–based generalized approach for predicting unauthorized immigration flow considering dynamic border security nexus Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-21 Ridwan Al Aziz, Tanvir Ahmed, Jun Zhuang
Unauthorized immigration has been a long-standing and contentious challenge for developed and developing countries. Numerous continually evolving push and pull factors across international borders, such as economy, employment, population density, unrest, corruption, and climate have driven this migration. Large-scale pandemics such as COVID-19, causing further instability in countries' financial well-being
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Integrating household survey with inoperability input–output model of critical infrastructure systems: A case study of Hurricane Sandy Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-20 Joost Santos, Sisi Meng, Pallab Mozumder
Critical infrastructures are ubiquitous and their interdependencies have become more complex leading to their uncertain behaviors in the aftermath of disasters. The article develops an integrated economic input–output model that incorporates household-level survey data from Hurricane Sandy, which made its landfall in 2012. In this survey, 427 respondents who were living in the state of New Jersey during
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Machines meet humans on the social road: Risk implications Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-16 Peng Liu
Human drivers and machine drivers (i.e., automated vehicles or AVs) will share roads and interact with each other, creating mixed traffic. In this perspective, we develop two mental models about them and their social interactions, aiming to understand the risk implications of AVs and mixed traffic. Based on Mental Model I (i.e., machine drivers are superior drivers without human weaknesses), many simulation-based
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Communicating scientific uncertainty in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: A message experiment Risk Anal. (IF 3.8) Pub Date : 2023-11-14 Dallin R. Adams, Chelsea L. Ratcliff, Manusheela Pokharel, Jakob D. Jensen, Yi Liao
The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. It was a time of significant uncertainty as experts were not yet certain whether social distancing behaviors were necessary to slow the spread of the virus. Some public communicators opted to acknowledge uncertainty based on the limited evidence, whereas others downplayed uncertainty. This situation provided