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Causality or confounding? Applying E values to examine associations between ultra-processed food consumption and weight gain medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-18 Eric Robinson, Andrew Jones
Background: Ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption is associated prospectively with weight gain and obesity in observational studies of adults. Unaccounted for confounding is a risk when attempting to make causal inference from observational studies. Limited research has examined how feasible it is that unmeasured confounding may explain associations between UPF consumption and weight gain in observational
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Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Control Following Release from Carceral Facilities medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Jenerius A Aminawung, Lisa B Puglisi, Brita Roy, Nadine Horton, Johanna E Elumn, Hsiu-Ju Lin, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, Harlan M. Krumholz, Emily A. Wang
Background: Incarceration is a social determinant of cardiovascular health but is rarely addressed in clinical settings or public health prevention efforts. People who have been incarcerated are more likely to develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) at younger ages and have worse cardiovascular outcomes compared with the general population, even after controlling for traditional risk factors. This study
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Temporal trends in mortality, heart failure hospitalization, and stroke in heart failure patients with and without atrial fibrillation: A nationwide study from 1997-2018 on 152,059 patients medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Marte Austreim, Nina Nouhravesh, Mariam Elmegaard Malik, Noor Kaynat Abassi, Deewa Zahir Anjum, Caroline Hartwell Garred, Camilla Fuchs Andersen, Morten Lock Hansen, Jonas Bjerring Olesen, Emil L. Fosbøl, Lauge Østergaard, Lars Køber, Morten Schou
Background:It remains unknown how the prognosis has changed for patients with heart failure (HF) and concomitant atrial fibrillation (AF), which is why we aimed to investigate temporal trends in clinical outcomes from 1997 to 2018. Methods:From Danish nationwide registries, we identified 152,059 patients with a first-time HF-diagnosis from 1997 to 2018. Patients were grouped according to year of new-onset
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Assessment of gender and geographical bias in the editorial decision-making process of biomedical journals: A Case-Control study. medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Angèle Gayet-Ageron, Khaoula Ben Messaoud, Mark Oliver Richards, Cyril M Jaksic, Julien Gobeill, Jeevanthi Liyanapathirana, Luc Mottin, Nona Naderi, Patrick Ruch, Zoe Mariot, Alexandra Calmy, Julia Friedman, Leonard Leibovici, Sara Schroter
Objectives: To assess whether the gender (primary) and geographical affiliation (post hoc) of the first and/or last authors of manuscripts is associated with publication decisions after controlling for known confounders. Design: Case-control (1:1) study. Setting: Two large general medical journals and 20 specialist journals. Participants: Original peer reviewed research manuscripts submitted between
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Frequency of Depressive Symptoms and Suicidal Ideation Among University Students Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Melissa Macalli, Laura Castel, Helene Jacqmin-gadda, Marie Tournier, Cedric Galera, Edwige Pereira, Christophe Tzourio
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown have had negative effects on students mental health. However, little information is available regarding the frequencies of depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation during the post-pandemic period. We aimed to compare prevalence rates of depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation among university students, before versus after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods:
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Childhood traumatic experiences and sleepwalking events in the lower GDP counties in Hungary medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Vivian M. Correa
Purpose The aim of the study was to identify injurious behavior during sleepwalking events and childhood traumatic experiences. Study design Eight questions from a sleepwalking study (02/2023) in different counties in Hungary were analyzed to find a relationship between traumatic experiences in the life of the participants, such as physical, emotional, or sexual abuse in childhood, and injurious behaviors
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COVID-19 mortality in the Philippines: a province-level analysis, 2020-2023 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Jimuel Nimer Celeste, Jesus Emmanuel A. D. Sevilleja, Vena Pearl Bongolan, Roselle Leah K. Rivera, Salvador Eugenio Caoili, Romulo de Castro
Objective: To investigate the COVID-19 mortality in Philippine provinces from 2020 to 2023. Methods: We calculated the crude (CMR) and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) of the Philippine provinces from the national COVID-19 surveillance data from January 18, 2020 to May 9, 2023. With Spearman's method, we then performed a correlation analysis between the rates and four independent variables,
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Forecasting the spatial spread of an Ebola epidemic in real-time: comparing predictions of mathematical models and experts medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-15 James D Munday, Alicia Rosello, W John Edmunds, Sebastian Funk
Ebola virus disease outbreaks can often be controlled, but require rapid response efforts frequently with profound operational complexities. Mathematical models can be used to support response planning, but it is unclear if models improve the prior understanding of experts. We performed repeated surveys of Ebola response experts during an outbreak. From each expert we elicited the probability of cases
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Seroprevalence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in middle-sized cities of Burkina Faso: A descriptive cross-sectional study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Adama SANA, Elodie DJEMAI, Philippe DE VREYER, Thomas THIVILLON, Hermann BADOLO, Abdramane BERTHE, Dramane KANIA
Background: Since March 2020, COVID-19 has evolved from a localized outbreak to a global pandemic. We assessed the seroprevalence of COVID-19 in three towns in the Centre Sud region of Burkina Faso. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in three medium-sized towns in Burkina Faso's Centre Sud region, from June to July 2021. Subjects aged 16 or over at the time of the survey
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Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Francesco Parino, Emanuele C. Gustani-Buss, Trevor Bedford, Marc A. Suchard, Nidia Sequeira Trovao, Andrew Rambaut, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto, Philippe Lemey
Global seasonal influenza circulation involves a complex interplay between local (seasonality, demography, host immunity) and global factors (international mobility) shaping recurrent epidemic patterns. No studies so far have reconciled the two spatial levels, evaluating the coupling between national epidemics, considering heterogeneous coverage of epidemiological and virological data, integrating
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Association between fruit and vegetable consumption and chronic diseases among food pantry users medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Jiacheng Chen, Akiko S Hosler, Xiaobo Xue Romeiko, Thomas J OGrady
Introduction: Fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption can be a protective factor for chronic diseases, but few studies have investigated the impact of FV on health in the context of food/nutrition assistance system. Methods: We used three health survey data collected in Upstate New York communities to construct a predictive model of food pantry use. The model was applied to a Northeastern US regional
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Tight Fit of the SIR Dynamic Epidemic Model to Daily Cases of COVID-19 Reported During the 2021-2022 Omicron Surge in New York City: A Novel Approach medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-13 Jeffrey E Harris
We describe a novel approach to recovering the underlying parameters of the SIR dynamic epidemic model from observed data on case incidence. We formulate a discrete-time approximation to the original continuous-time model and search for the parameter vector that minimizes the standard least squares criterion function. We show that the gradient vector and matrix of second-order derivatives of the criterion
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Estimated genetics prevalence of early-onset Parkinson′s disease caused by PRKN gene mutations medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOROTHEE DIOGO, Emily HW Wong, Christopher DeBoever, Wei Qu, Jonghun Lee, Stephen Crawford, Takeshi Hioki, Jaya Padmanabhan, Daria Prilutsky, Gabriele Proetzel
Background: Estimating the prevalence of rare diseases is challenging due to very limited natural history studies, lack of studies in diverse populations, and frequent under or misdiagnosis. We leveraged human genetics to predict the lifetime risk of familial Parkinson′s disease (PD) caused by biallelic Parkin (PRKN) gene mutations (PRKN-PD). Methods: We curated the reported PRKN-PD pathogenic mutations
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Associations Between Air Pollution and relative Leukocyte Telomere Length Among Northern Swedish Adults: Insights from the Betula Observational Study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-13 Wasif Raza, Sara Pudas, Katja M Kanninen, Erin Flanagan, Sofie Degerman, Rolf Adolfsson, Rosalba Giugno, Jan Topinka, Xiao-wen Zeng, Anna Oudin
Air pollution is increasingly discussed as a risk factor for dementia, but the biological mechanisms are not yet fully understood. Cellular integrity markers like telomere length are relevant to investigate in relation to air pollution exposure in this context, as they are associated with aging and dementia. Previous studies on air pollution and telomere length have somewhat mixed results, which may
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EpidemicKabu a new method to identify epidemic waves and their peaks and valleys medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-13 Lina Marcela Ruiz, Anderson Alexis Ruales, Oscar Ignacio Mendoza Cardozo, Noel Barengo, Jose Penalvo Garcia, Paula Diaz Valencia
INTRODUCTION: The dynamical behavior of epidemic curves is an oscillation between a very low and very high number of incident cases throughout the time. These oscillations are commonly called waves of the epidemic curve. The concept of epidemic waves lacks a consensual definition and a simple methodology that can be used for many diseases. OBJECTIVE: We describe in this study the EpidemicKabu method
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The speed of vaccination rollout and the risk of pathogen adaptation medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-12 Sylvain Gandon, Amaury Lambert, Marina Voinson, Troy Day, Todd L Parsons
Vaccination is expected to reduce disease prevalence and to halt the spread of epidemics. But pathogen adaptation may erode the efficacy of vaccination and challenge our ability to control disease spread. Here we examine the influence of the speed of vaccination rollout on the overall risk of pathogen adaptation to vaccination. We extend the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory to account
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Detection of Chikungunya virus in The Gambia through a newly implemented sentinel surveillance program medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-12 Amadou Woury Jallow, Idrissa Dieng, Bakary Sanneh, Aliou Barry, Cheikh Talla, Modou Lamin Sanneh, Samba Niang Sagne, Mamadou Cisse, Alphonse Mendy, Muhammed Kijera, Karamo York, Alieu Faal, Alhagie Papa Sey, Ebrima K Jallow, Lamin Manneh, Sheriffo M.K Darboe, Balla Jatta, Momodou Kalisa, Adama M.B Sanneh, Modou Njie, Momodou T Nyassi, Mustapha Bittaye, Ndongo Dia, Amadou Alpha Sall, Ousmane Faye, Moussa
We characterized 01 autochthonous chikungunya virus (CHIKV) case from (The Gambia) through a newly implemented local arboviruses surveillance program highlighting the first notification of the virus in the Country. Identified virus is closely related to CHIKV West African genotype detected in Kedougou (Senegal) in 2023 and responsible of a large outbreak with up to 300 confirmed cases. This work describes
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A mechanistic modeling approach to assessing the sensitivity of outcomes of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions to local contexts and intervention factors medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-12 Andrew F Brouwer, Alicia N M Kraay, Mondal H Zahid, Marisa C Eisenberg, Matthew C Freeman, Joseph NS Eisenberg
Background: Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young children. Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) improvements have historically been responsible for major public health gains by reducing exposure to enteropathogens, but many individual interventions have failed to consistently reduce diarrheal disease burden. Analytical tools that can estimate the potential impacts
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Characterizing US spatial connectivity: implications for geographical disease dynamics and metapopulation modeling medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Giulia Pullano, Lucila Gisele Alvarez-Zuzek, Vittoria Colizza, Shweta Bansal
Human mobility is expected to be a critical factor in the geographic diffusion of infectious diseases, and this assumption led to the implementation of social distancing policies during the early fight against the COVID-19 emergency in the United States. Yet, because of substantial data gaps in the past, what still eludes our understanding are the following questions: 1) How does mobility contribute
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Clinical Characteristics and Factors Associated with Long COVID in Zambia, August 2020 to January 2023: A Mixed Methods Design medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Warren Malambo, Duncan Chanda, Lily Besa, Daniella Engamba, Linos Mwiinga, Mundia Mwitumwa, Peter Matibula, Neil Naik, Suilanji Sivile, Simon Agolory, Andrew Auld, Lloyd Mulenga, Jonas Z Hines, Sombo Fwoloshi
INTRODUCTION A number of seroprevalence studies in Zambia document the extent of spread of SARS-CoV-2, yet few have examined signs, symptoms and conditions that continue or develop after acute COVID-19 infection (long COVID). This is an important gap given the estimated prevalence of long COVID in other countries. We sought to examine characteristics of post-acute COVID-19 (PAC-19) clinics patients
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Periodic restriction of animal products rapidly decreases cardiovascular disease risk and reduces low-grade inflammation: the FastBio study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Eleni M Loizidou, Alexandros Simistiras, Petros Barbounakis, Stavros Glentis, Alexandros Dimopoulos, Maria Anezaki, Pavlos Rouskas, Ioannis Kontoyiannis, Nikolaos Demiris, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Mary Yannakoulia, Konstantinos Rouskas, Antigone S Dimas
ABSTRACT Background: Dietary intake is a modifiable risk factor for a range of conditions, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inflammatory disorders. However, the extent to which dietary modification can contribute to disease prevention and treatment remains unclear and targeted dietary interventions constitute a means of untapped potential for the management of disease. In the present study
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Association between prescription drugs and all-cause mortality risk in the UK population medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-10 Jonas Morin, Yves Rolland, Heike A. Bischoff-Ferrari, Alejandro Ocampo, Kevin Perez
Although most drugs currently approved are meant to treat specific diseases or symptoms, it has been hypothesized that some might bear a beneficial effect on lifespan in healthy older individuals, outside of their specific disease indication. Such drugs include, among others, metformin, SGLT2 inhibitors and rapamycin. The UK biobank has recorded prescription medication and mortality data for over 500'000
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Setting up a Hospital Based Diarrhoea Surveillance System in a Low- and Middle-Income Country: Lessons Learned medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-09 Sam Miti, Caroline Cleopatra Chisenga, Cynthia Mubanga, Lusungu Msimuko, Chipo Manda, Catherine Zulu, Naomi Muleba Kalaba, Christian Musilikare Niyongabo, Lydia Chisapi, David Thole, Mwizukanji Nachamba, Roy Moono, Mosses Chakopo, Dorcas Chibwe, Theresa Kabungo, Chibesa Kayayi, Vivian Nanyangwe, Bwendo Nduna, Gershom Chongwe, Justine Chileshe, Daniel Cohen, Roma Chilengi, Seter Siziya, Michelo Simuyandi
Background: Acute diarrhoea is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in low-resource settings. Establishing effective surveillance systems is crucial for monitoring and responding to diarrhoeal outbreaks. Objective: This manuscript presents the lessons learned during the setup of a hospital-based diarrhoea surveillance system at Arthur Davison Children's Hospital in Ndola, Zambia
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Prevalence and seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection among older people: A scoping review based on population-based studies in 2020-2022 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-09 Jingxin Lei, Phyumar Soe
Background Accurate estimates of the prevalence of infections play an important role in COVID-19 surveillance. Older people are known to have higher risks of severe outcomes after infection, but whether they also have a higher infection rate remains unclear. To obtain estimates of COVID-19 prevalence among older people, we synthesized evidence from RT-PCR-based prevalence and serological studies. Methods
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Power spectra density and similarity analysis of COVID-19 mortality waves across countries medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Elias Manjarrez, Erick F Delfin, Saul M Dominguez-Nicolas, Amira Flores
Johns Hopkins University CSSE documented waves of oscillatory COVID-19 mortality patterns worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we calculated the power spectrum density (PSD) of these COVID-19 mortality waves in 199 countries from January 22, 2020, to March 9, 2023. We identified two dominant peaks in the grand averaged PSD: one at a frequency of 1.15 waves per year (i.e., one wave every 10
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The Association Between Parental BMI and Offspring Adiposity: A Genetically Informed Analysis of Trios medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Liam Wright, Gemma Shireby, Tim T. Morris, Neil M Davies, David Bann
Background: Children with obesity are more likely to have parents with obesity, too. Several environmental explanations have been proposed for this correlation, including foetal programming, and parenting practices. However, body mass index (BMI) is a highly heritable trait; child-parent correlations may reflect direct inheritance of adiposity-related genes. There is some evidence that mother's BMI
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How to mitigate selection bias in COVID-19 surveys: evidence from five national cohorts medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Martina K Narayanan, Brian Dodgeon, Michail Katsoulis, George B Ploubidis, Richard J Silverwood
Background: Non-response is a common problem, and even more so during the COVID-19 pandemic where social distancing measures challenged data collections. As non-response is often systematic, meaning that respondents are usually healthier and from a better socioeconomic background, this potentially introduces serious bias in research findings based on COVID-19 survey data. The goal of the current study
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Tracking Persistent Symptoms in Scotland (TraPSS): A Longitudinal Prospective Cohort Study of COVID-19 Recovery After Mild Acute Infection medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Nicholas Sculthorpe, Marie Mclaughlin, Luke Cerexhe, Eilidh Macdonald, Antonio Dello Iacono, Nilihan Sanal-Hayes, Joanne Ingram, Rachel Meach, David Carless, Jane Ormerod, Lawrence D D Hayes
Background: COVID-19 disease results in disparate responses between individuals and has led to the emergence of Long-COVID, characterized by persistent and cyclical symptomology. To understand the complexity of Long-COVID, the importance of symptom surveillance and prospective longitudinal studies is evident. Methods: A 9-month longitudinal prospective cohort study was conducted within Scotland (n=287)
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Comprehensive knowledge and positive attitudes regarding HIV/AIDS among reproductive-aged women in Bangladesh and their associated factors: a cross-sectional study using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2019 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Md Arif Billah, Raba’Aton Adawiah Mohd Yusof, Md. Nuruzzaman Khan, Ruhani Mat Min
Background: HIV/AIDS remains a global health concern and understanding the knowledge and attitudes of at-risk populations is crucial for effective prevention and management. This study examines the knowledge and attitudes related to HIV/AIDS among reproductive-aged women in Bangladesh and explores associated factors. Methods: The study analyzed data from a total of 39,066 reproductive women, obtained
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The proportion of Alzheimer disease attributable to apolipoprotein E medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Dylan M Williams, Neil M Davies, Emma L Anderson
The extent to which genetic variation at the APOE locus explains the burden of late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD) is poorly understood. We provide new estimates of the proportions of AD and all-cause dementia attributable to carriage of e3 and/or e4 alleles of APOE, using data from 171,128 participants of the UK Biobank cohort study. AD and all-cause dementia were ascertained at baseline and during
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WITHDRAWN: Evaluation of Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (IR Biotyper) as a complement to Whole genome sequencing (WGS) to characterise Enterobacter cloacae, Citrobacter freundii and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates recovered from hospital sinks medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Paz Aranega Bou, Charlotte Cornbill, Gillian Rodger, Matthew Bird, Ginny Moore, Aysha Roohi, Katie L Hopkins, Susan Hopkins, Paolo Ribeca, Nicole Stoesser, Sam I Lipworth
The authors have withdrawn their manuscript due to becoming aware of methodology issues related to the curation of the training set used to determine cut-off values for Biotyper cluster assignation and lack of replicate measurements on different days for the isolates analysed. It is therefore unclear whether the conclusions of the manuscript are founded and no further work is possible to correct these
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A novel approach for estimating vaccine efficacy for infections with multiple disease outcomes: application to a COVID-19 vaccine trial medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Lucy R Williams, Merryn Voysey, Andrew J Pollard, Nicholas C Grassly
Vaccines can provide protection against infection or limit disease progression and severity. Vaccine efficacy (VE) is typically evaluated independently for different outcomes, but this can cause biased estimates of VE. We propose a new analytical framework based on a model of disease progression for VE estimation for infections with multiple possible outcomes of infection: Joint analysis of multiple
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Contact behaviour before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands: evidence from contact surveys in 2016-2017 and 2020-2023 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Jantien A. Backer, Eric R.A. Vos, Gerco den Hartog, Cheyenne C. E. van Hagen, Hester E. de Melker, Fiona R. M. van der Klis, Jacco Wallinga
Background The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was largely mitigated by reducing contacts in the general population. In 2022 most contact-reducing measures were lifted. Aim We assess whether the population has reverted to pre-pandemic contact behaviour and how this would affect the transmission potential of a newly emerging pathogen. Methods The PIENTER Corona study was held every 2-6 months
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Exploring the causal role of the human gut microbiome in endometrial cancer: a Mendelian randomization approach medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Ella Fryer, Charlie Hatcher, Rochelle Knight, Kaitlin H Wade
Endometrial cancer presents a major public health issue, particularly in post-menopausal women. Whilst there are known risk factors for the disease, including oestrogen and obesity, these factors do not fully explain risk variability in cancer outcomes. The identification of novel risk factors may aid in better understanding of endometrial cancer development and, given the link with oestrogen metabolism
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Community level variability in Bronx COVID-19 hospitalizations associated with differing viral variant adaptive strategies during the second year of the pandemic. medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Ryan McHale Forster, Anthony Griffen, Johanna Daily, Libusha Kelly
The Bronx, New York, exhibited unique peaks in the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations compared to national trends. To determine which features of the SARS-CoV-2 virus might underpin this local disease epidemiology, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the genomic epidemiology of the four dominant strains of SARS-CoV-2 (Alpha, Iota, Delta and Omicron) responsible for COVID-19 cases in
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Estimating the impact of public health interventions on COVID mortality in the United States using reductions in influenza mortality as an indicator of non-pharmaceutical infection control medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Robert D Morris
Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for control of COVID include a range of methods from masks to closures of schools and businesses with the efficacy of any individual strategy contingent on which other NPIs are employed and the extent of compliance with those strategies. In the case of a public health intervention, one typically looks at historical data for comparison, but, because
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Detection of an imported case of severe Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in a patient with comorbidities, Dakar, Senegal 2023. medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Samba Niang Sagne, Ousseynou Sene, Idrissa Dieng, Mamadou Korka Diallo, Amadou Moustapha Ndoye, Yoro Sall, Boly Diop, Oumar Faye, Abdourahmane Sow, Boubacar Diallo, Cheikh Loucoubar, Gamou Fall, Aliou Barry
In July 2023, a diabetic from Mauritania was diagnosed with a severe case of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever at a Dakar region hospital, Senegal. The phylogenetic analysis revealed the new strain as a CCHFV reassortant between Genotype Ⅰ and Ⅲ, closely linked to strains from Spain, Mauritania, Senegal and South Africa. Genetic variability of CCHF in West Africa underscores the urgent need for enhanced
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High Prevalence of the Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Among US Adults From 1999-2020 - An analysis of the NHANES survey medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Zhejia Tian, Samira Soltani, Johann Bauersachs, Kai M. Schmidt-Ott, Anette Melk, Bernhard MW Schmidt
Background The cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a newly defined chronic health condition from American Heart Association. We assessed the prevalence of CKM syndrome stages 0-2, which have not yet progressed to cardiovascular disease (stage 3-4) with trends analysis over the past two decades. Methods We used cross-sectional data provided by National Health and Nutrition Examination
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Mental illness and COVID-19 vaccination: a multinational investigation of observational & register-based data medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Mary M Barker, Kadri Koiv, Ingibjorg Magnusdottir, Hannah Milbourn, Bin Wang, Xinkai Du, Gillian Murphy, Eva Herweijer, Elisabet U Gisladottir, Huiqi Li, Aniko Lovik, Anna K Kahler, Archie Campbell, Maria Feychting, Arna Hauksdottir, Emily E Joyce, Edda Bjork Thordardottir, Emma Frans, Asle Hoffart, Reedik Magi, Gunnar Tomasson, Kristjana Asbjornsdottir, Johanna Jakobsdottir, Ole Andreassen, Patrick
Background: Individuals with mental illness are at higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. However, previous studies on the uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in this population have reported conflicting results. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between mental illness and COVID-19 vaccination uptake, using data from five countries. Methods: Data from seven cohort studies (N=325,298)
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Epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and transmission patterns of a novel Mpox (Monkeypox) outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): an observational, cross-sectional cohort study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Leandre Murhula Masirika, Jean Claude Udahemuka, Pacifique Ndishimye, Gustavo Sganzerla Martinez, Patricia Kelvin, Nadine Malyamungu Bubala, Steeven Bilembo Kitwanda, Franklin Kumbana Mweshi, Leandre Mutimbwa Mambo, Bas B. Oude Munnink, Justin Bengehya Mbiribindi, Freddy Belesi Siangoli, Trudie A. Lang, Jean M. Malekani, Frank M. Aarestrup, Marion Koopmans, Leonard Schuele, Jean Pierre Musabvimana
Summary (abstract) Background In August 2023, an outbreak of mpox was reported in the eastern part, South Kivu Province, of Democratic Republic of the Congo. In this study, we aimed to investigate the origin of this outbreak and to assess how monkeypox virus spread among humans in the city of Kamituga. Methods We performed an observational cohort study by recruiting hospitalized patients with mpox-like
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Influenza virus shedding and symptoms: Dynamics and implications from a multi-season household transmission study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Sinead E Morris, Huong Q Nguyen, Carlos G Grijalva, Kayla E Hanson, Yuwei Zhu, Jessica E Biddle, Jennifer K Meece, Natasha B Halasa, James D Chappell, Alexandra M Mellis, Carrie Reed, Matthew Biggerstaff, Edward A Belongia, H Keipp Talbot, Melissa A Rolfes
Isolation of symptomatic infectious persons can reduce influenza transmission. However, virus shedding that occurs without symptoms will be unaffected by such measures. Identifying effective isolation strategies for influenza requires understanding the interplay between individual virus shedding and symptom presentation. From 2017–2020, we conducted a case-ascertained household transmission study using
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Investigating the relationship between extreme weather and cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in Colorado: a multi-decade study using distributed-lag nonlinear models medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Elise N Grover, James L Crooks, Elizabeth J Carlton, Sara H Paull, William B Allshouse, Rachel H Jervis, Katherine A James
Environmentally-mediated protozoan diseases like cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis are likely to be highly impacted by extreme weather, as climate-related conditions like temperature and precipitation have been linked to their survival, distribution, and overall transmission success. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation and cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis
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Patient-Related Metadata Reported in Sequencing Studies of SARS-CoV-2: Protocol for a Scoping Review and Bibliometric Analysis medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Karen OConnor, Davy Weissenbacher, Amir Elyaderani, Ebbing Lautenbach, Matthew Scotch, Graciela Gonzalez-Hernandez
Background: There has been an unprecedented effort to sequence the SARS-CoV-2 virus and examine its molecular evolution. This has been facilitated by the availability of publicly accessible databases, the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) and GenBank, which collectively hold millions of SARS-CoV-2 sequence records. Genomic epidemiology, however, seeks to go beyond phylogenetic
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The descriptive epidemiology of type 2 diabetes in the United Kingdom from 2004 to 2021 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Craig J. Currie
Purpose To provide contemporary estimates of the incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the UK. Methods Data from UK primary care (CPRD) were analyzed using an automated, analytical platform that produces validated, rapid analytics called Livingstone. Results We selected 1,125,028 people with type 2 diabetes (44.7% female). The crude incidence was stable. In 2004 the incidence rate was 4.18
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Prospective Clinical Surveillance for Severe Acute Respiratory Illness in Kenyan Hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Ruth Khadembu Lucinde, Henry Gathuri, Lynda Isaaka, Morris Ogero, Livingstone Mumelo, Dennis Kimego, George Mbevi, Conrad W Wanyama, Edwin Onyango Otieno, Stella Mwakio, Metrine Saisi, ELizabeth Isinde, Irene Njeri Oginga, Alvin Wachira, Evans Manuthu, Hazel Kariuki, Jared Nyikuli, Cyprian Wekesa, Amos Otedo, Hannah Bosire, Steve Biko Okoth, Winston Ongalo, David Mukabi, Wilber Lusamba, Beatrice Muthui
There are limited data from sub–Saharan Africa describing the pattern of admissions to public hospitals with severe acute respiratory infections during the COVID–19 pandemic. We conducted a prospective longitudinal hospital-based sentinel surveillance between May 2020 and December 2022 at 16 public hospitals in Kenya. All patients aged above 18 years admitted to adult medical wards in the participating
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Preferences for Daylight Saving Time meet fundamentals of human physiology medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Jose Maria Martin-Olalla, Jorge Mira
We search for correlations in the preferences for seasonal time arrangements across different countries. With this purpose we analyze the public consultation on summertime arrangements (Daylight Saving Time) launched by the European Commission in 2018 (the largest sample size study of this kind, 4.55 million replies). We also analyze the starting point of human activity in Europe from the Harmonized
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A Prediction Model of PTSD in the Israeli Population in the Aftermath of October 7th, 2023, Terrorist Attack and the Israel-Hamas War medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Dana Katsoty, Michal Greidinger, Yuval Neria, Aviv Segev, Ido Lurie
Background: On October 7th, 2023, a mass terror attack was launched by Hamas militants, which was followed by the Israel-Hamas war. These events constitute a nationwide trauma with major ramifications for public mental health. Aim: To develop an evidence-based model for the prediction of the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) related to the terrorist attack and the war. Methods: Firstly
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Association analysis between an epigenetic alcohol risk score and blood pressure medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Helena Bui, Amena Keshawarz, Mengyao Wang, Mikyeong Lee, Scott M. Ratliff, Lisha Lin, Kira S. Birditt, Jessica D. Faul, Annette Peters, Christian Gieger, Thomas Delerue, Sharon L. R. Kardia, Wei Zhao, Xiuqing Guo, Jie Yao, Jerome I. Rotter, Dan Liu, Juliana F. Tavares, Gökhan Pehlivan, Monique M.B. Breteler, Irma Karabegovic, Carolina Ochoa-Rosales, Trudy Voortman, Mohsen Ghanbari, Joyce B.J. van Meurs
Epigenome‐wide association studies have revealed multiple DNA methylation sites (CpGs) associated with alcohol consumption, an important lifestyle risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. We generated an alcohol consumption epigenetic risk score (ERS) based on previously reported 144 alcohol-associated CpGs and examined the association of the ERS with systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood
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Osteoarthritis across Joint Sites in the Million Veteran Program: Insights from Electronic Health Records and Military Service History medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-02 Kaleen M Lavin, Joshua S Richman, Merry-Lynn McDonald, Jasvinder A Singh
Objective. To characterize the relationship between OA frequency and a host of demographic characteristics, comorbidities, military service history, and physical health variables in a veteran population. Methods. We investigated the Million Veteran Program (MVP) cohort to outline frequency of OA across six joint sites (knee, spine, hip, hand, finger, thumb) in veterans with respect to demographics
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Novel travel time aware metapopulation models: A combination with multi-layer waning immunity to assess late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-02 Henrik Zunker, Rene Schmieding, David Kerkmann, Alain Schengen, Michael Meyer-Hermann, Sophie Diexer, Rafael Mikolajczyk, Martin J Kuehn
In the realm of infectious disease control, accurate modeling of the transmission dynamics is pivotal. As human mobility and commuting patterns are key components of communicable disease spread, we introduce a novel travel time aware metapopulation model. Our model aims to enhance estimations of disease transmission. By providing more reliable assessments on the efficacy of interventions, curtailing
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Historical state compulsory schooling laws and pandemic-era mortality: A quasi-experimental study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-02 Whitney Wells, Yea-Hung Chen, Marie-Laure Charpignon, Ah-Reum Lee, Ruijia Chen, Andrew C Stokes, Jacqueline Torres, M Maria Glymour
Introduction: Low educational attainment is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality, but it remains unclear whether the link between education and COVID-19 mortality is causal or due to confounding factors, such as childhood socio-economic status or cognitive skills. To address this question, we evaluated whether older adults' risk of COVID-19 mortality was associated with historical state-level
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Evaluation of Molecular-based Methods for the Detection and Quantification of Cryptosporidium spp. in Wastewater medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-03-02 Oumaima Hachimi, Rebecca Falender, Gabriel Davis, Rispa Vranka Wafula, Melissa Sutton, June Bancroft, Paul Cieslak, Noah Lininger, Christine Kelly, Devrim Kaya, Tyler Steven Radniecki
Cryptosporidium, a eukaryotic protozoan parasite, poses a significant public health risk as a cause of waterborne disease worldwide. Clinical surveillance of cryptosporidiosis is estimated to be largely underreported due to the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections, clinical misdiagnoses, and barriers to access testing. Unlike clinical surveillance, wastewater surveillance overcomes these
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Oro-faecal transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A systematic review of studies employing viral culture from gastrointestinal and other potential sources medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Sara Gandini, John Conly, Elizabeth A Spencer, David Evans, Elena Cecilia Rosca, Jon Brassey, Susanna Maltoni, Igho Onakpoya, Annette Pluddemann, Tom Jefferson, Carl Heneghan
Background. The extent to which the oro-faecal route contributes to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is not established. Methods: We systematically reviewed the evidence on the presence of infectious SARS-CoV-2 in faeces and other gastrointestinal sources by examining studies that used viral culture to investigate the presence of replication-competent virus in these samples. We conducted searches in
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Ineffectiveness of international travel restrictions to contain spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 variant: a continent-wide laboratory-based observational study from Africa medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Carlo Fischer, Tongai Gibson Maponga, Anges Yadouleton, Nuro Abilio, Emmanuel Aboce, Praise Adewumi, Pedro Afonso, Jewelna Akorli, Soa Fy Andriamandimby, Latifa Anga, Yvonne Ashong, Mohamed Amine Beloufa, Aicha Bensalem, Richard Birtles, Anicet Luc Magloire Boumba, Freddie Bwanga, Mike Chaponda, Paradzai Chibukira, R Matthew Chico, Justin Chileshe, Wonderful Choga, Gershom Chongwe, Assana Cisse, Fatoumata
Background: In mid-November 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 variant was detected in Southern Africa, prompting international travel restrictions of unclear effectiveness that exacted a substantial economic toll. Methods: Amidst the BA.1 wave, we tested 13,294 COVID-19 patients in 24 African countries between mid-2021 to early 2022 for BA.1 and Delta variants using real-time reverse transcription-PCR
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Implementation and Adherence to Regular Asymptomatic Testing in a COVID-19 Vaccine Trial medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Lucy R Williams, Katherine RW Emary, Daniel J Phillips, Jodie Hay, Jessica PJ Larwood, Maheshi N Ramasamy, Andrew J Pollard, Nicholas C Grassly, Merryn Voysey
Background For pathogens which cause infections that present asymptomatically, evaluating vaccine efficacy (VE) against asymptomatic infection is important for understanding a vaccine's potential epidemiological impact. Regular testing for subclinical infections is a potentially valuable strategy but its success hinges on participant adherence and minimising false positives. This paper describes the
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Cannabis Use and Cannabis Use Disorder among U.S. Adults with Psychiatric Disorders: 2001-2002 and 2012-2013 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Deborah S. Hasin, Zachary L. Mannes, Ofir Livne, David S. Fink, Sylvia S. Martins, Malki Stohl, Mark Olfson, Magdalena Cerdá, Katherine M. Keyes, Salomeh Keyhani, Caroline G. Wisell, Julia M. Bujno, Andrew Saxon
Objective: Rates of cannabis use disorder (CUD) have increased disproportionately among Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients with psychiatric disorders, but determining whether such an increase occurred more generally among U.S. adults requires nationally representative data. Methods: Data came from 2001-2002 (n=43,093) and 2012-2013 (n=36,309) national surveys. Outcomes were any past-year
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Fluorosurfactants in groundwater increase the incidence of chronic health conditions among California Medicare beneficiaries medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Lucas M Neas, William Steinhardt, Kevin Lloyd Hill, Riley Short, Alvin Sheng, Elaine Hubal, Brian Reich, Shu Yang, Ana G Rappold
Background: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent organic pollutants with emerging environmental and regulatory concerns. Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the burden of PFAS exposures through ground water on the incidence of chronic health conditions among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older. Methods: We estimated PFAS groundwater concentrations for every ZIP
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Evaluating the Risk of Conflict on Recent Ebola Outbreaks in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Gina E C Charnley, Nathan Green, Ilan Kelman, Espoir Bwenge Malembaka, Katy A M Gaythorpe
Background Reducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbreak detection and interventions due to widespread disruption to governments and the populations. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have historically
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Regression with race-modifiers: towards equity and interpretability medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Daniel R Kowal
The pervasive effects of structural racism and racial discrimination are well-established and offer strong evidence that the effects of many important variables on health and life outcomes vary by race. Alarmingly, standard practices for statistical regression analysis introduce racial biases into the estimation and presentation of these race-modified effects. We introduce abundance-based constraints
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Quantifying and adjusting for confounding from health-seeking behaviour and healthcare access in observational research. medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Sophie Graham, Jemma Walker, Nick Andrews, William Hulme, Edward Parker, Helen I McDonald
Objective: To assess the feasibility and effect of using proxy markers of health-seeking behaviour and healthcare access to quantify and adjust for confounding in observational studies of influenza and COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Design: Cohort study for influenza VE in the 2019/2020 influenza season and for early COVID-19 VE (December 2020 to March 2021). Setting: Primary care data pre-linked