ABSTRACT The prevalence of illicit drug use among high school students living in the Silesian voivodship (Poland) is estimated using either the random response techniques of forced response design or the Liu-Chow method. Respondents answer a sensitive question only with a certain probability, thus ensuring anonymity. These methods provide correct estimates of prevalence, unlike interviews based on

ABSTRACT Stress-strength reliability is a measure to compare the lifetimes of two systems. It is inferred for the two-parameter exponential distribution using generalized order statistics first without constraint on the location and scale parameters, second when the scale parameters are equal. A generalized confidence interval, bootstrap confidence intervals, a Bayesian interval, and a highest posterior

(2021). 아픔이 길이 되려면: 정의로운 건강을 찾아 질병의 사회적 책임을 묻다 [When Pain Should be the Way: Social Responsibility Committed to the Pursuit of Righteous Health] Mathematical Population Studies: Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 61-62.

ABSTRACT Erroneous enumerations in the census include multiple enumerations and other errors. The linear estimator for estimating these errors currently used in several countries leads to underestimation when the sample used for the estimation comprises few of these errors. The “ratio estimator” of the total number of erroneous enumerations overcomes this difficulty. This is the one used by China for

ABSTRACT Taylor’s law states that the variance of population density in a given set of areas is a power function of its mean. When the exponent is equal to 2, the distribution of population densities between areas remains unchanged; when it is less than 2, the distribution converges toward the uniform distribution; when it is greater than 2, the densities become increasingly different from each other

ABSTRACT Median ranked set sampling is a sampling procedure used to estimate the population mean when the variable of interest is difficult or costly to measure. Two estimators for the population mean based on the minimum and maximum values of the auxiliary variable are built upon a successive use of ranks, second raw moments, and the linearly transformed auxiliary variable. The biases and the mean

The Fisher information matrix related to an order statistic and its concomitant used to order a bivariate random sample are obtained in the case of the shape-parameter vector of an iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution. They contain information conveyed by singly or multiply censored bivariate samples drawn from an iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution. Fisher

In a catalytic branching random walk on a multidimensional lattice, with arbitrary finite total number of catalysts, in supercritical regime, when the vector coordinates of the random walk jump are assumed independent (or close to independent) to one another and have semi-exponential distributions, a limit theorem provides the almost sure normalized locations of the particles at the boundary between

ABSTRACT Trichomoniasis is a sexually transmitted disease caused by an infection from the parasite Trichomonas vaginalis. A model of its transmission shows a backward bifurcation when the basic reproduction number R 0 is less than one. A stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium with the consequence that the disease may invade the population even when R 0 < 1 . The

ABSTRACT Stratification of population is a probability sampling design used to increase the precision of estimation. An efficient exponential ratio estimator allows estimating the population mean in stratified random sampling using an auxiliary variable. Its expected bias, expected mean square error, and minimum mean square error are expressed. The conditions for which the estimator is more efficient

ABSTRACT In a lattice population model where individuals evolve as subcritical branching random walks subject to external immigration, the cumulants are estimated and the existence of the steady state is proved. The resulting dynamics are Lyapunov stable in that their qualitative behavior does not change under suitable perturbations of the main parameters of the model. An explicit formula of the limit

ABSTRACT The ratio content error estimators recommended by the United Nations Statistics Division for censuses do not cover content errors resulting from erroneous enumerations and omissions; thus they underestimate content errors. The “complete content error estimator” covers all content errors and is unbiased. It applies to any category of population.

ABSTRACT Improved chain-ratio estimators for the population mean based on two-phase sampling are proposed when the study variable and two auxiliary variables comprise non-response. Auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not available for the second variable. Their biases and mean square errors are estimated under large sample approximation. Their efficiencies are compared with

(2019). Methods and applications in spatial demography. Mathematical Population Studies: Vol. 26, Methods and Applications in Spatial Demography I, pp. 183-184.

(2019). In memoriam: Jennifer Buher Kane (1979–2019) Mathematical Population Studies: Vol. 26, Methods and Applications in Spatial Demography I, pp. 185-185.

ABSTRACT Inferences about estimation and prediction of the two-parameter exponential distribution are based on generalized order statistics. Point and interval estimates are used for scale and location parameters. Unbiased point predictors and reconstructors are based upon pivotal quantities. The mean square error and Pitman’s measure help assess the closeness of estimators and predictors. Point estimators

ABSTRACT A Bayesian data-augmentation method allows estimating the parameters in a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model, which is formulated as a continuous-time Markov process and approximated by a diffusion process using the convergence of the master equation. The estimation was carried out with latent data points between every pair of observations simulated through the Euler-Maruyama

ABSTRACT In a population model in continuous space, individuals evolve independently as branching random walks subject to immigration. If the underlying branching mechanism is subcritical, the model has a unique steady state for each value of the immigration intensity. Convergence to the equilibrium is exponentially fast. The resulting dynamics are Lyapunov stable in that their qualitative behavior

ABSTRACT Chain-ratio estimators are often used to improve the efficiency of the estimation of the population total or the mean using two auxiliary variables, available in two different phases. An improved chain-ratio estimator for the population total based on double sampling is proposed when auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not available for the second variable. The bias

ABSTRACT A stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model with vaccination includes stochastic variation in its parameters. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and the existence of the stationary distribution of the population are proved.

How far do Americans live from their close and extended kin? The answer is likely to structure the types of social, instrumental, and financial support that they are able to provide to one another. Based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, kin pairs vary widely in odds of household co-residence, co-residence in the same administrative units, and inter-tract distances if they do not live in the same

(2019). Methods for big data in social sciences. Mathematical Population Studies: Vol. 26, Methods for Big Data in Social Sciences, pp. 65-68.

In event-history analysis with many possibly collinear regressors, Cox’s proportional hazard model, like all generalized linear models, can fail to be identified. Dimension-reduction and regularization are therefore needed. Penalty-based methods such as the ridge and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) provide a regularized linear predictor, but fail to highlight the predictive

Social media can be used not only for evaluating migration flows almost in real time and the degree of integration in the destination countries but also for the understanding of public opinion sentiment about immigration. Experiences based on scraping social media are reviewed, and the use of geo-located data and advertising platforms turns out to be the most promising opportunities supplied by these

A flexible scrambled response model using a randomization device for quantitative sensitive data is used to evaluate the protection of respondents’ privacy. A double-sampling regression-cum-exponential estimator is used to estimate the mean of a sensitive variable using the mean of a nonsensitive auxiliary variable under scrambled response. The expected bias, the expected mean square error, and the

The triple-source estimator avoids the correlation bias inherent in the double-source estimator, which has been a popular estimator of population size for assessing the quality of a census. The triple-source estimator relies on the census list, the quality-assessment survey list, and the administrative record list. It also provides an estimate of the net census coverage error. It is established in

Rudolph E. Kalman is mainly known for the Kalman filter, first published in 1960. In this year, he published two equally important contributions, one about linear state space system theory and the other about linear quadratic optimal control theory. These three domains are intertwined in the later theory of linear quadratic Gaussian control. An extended version of linear quadratic optimal control is

Solutions from non-smooth functional spaces, including generalized functions and measures, often appear in optimal control theory but are avoided in applications. They are however useful in finding the optimal distribution of investments into new and old capital equipment under improving technology. The corresponding economic problem involves optimal control in a linear Lotka-McKendrik model of age-structured

ABSTRACT In the estimation, using confidence intervals, of quantiles and reliability of the two – parameter exponential distribution based on record data, a pivot is defined and its exact cumulative distribution function and probability density function are computed. Confidence intervals using critical values from the cumulative distribution function of the pivot are obtained. Applications to crushed

A short Edgeworth expansion is approximated for the distribution function of a Studentized linear combination of order statistics computed on a random sample drawn without replacement from a finite population, and using auxiliary data available for the population units. Simulations show an improvement over the usual Gaussian approximation and previous empirical Edgeworth expansions. Naive synthetic

When conducting firm-level surveys, a relevant aspect in sampling design is to guarantee that the selected sample of business units is representative of the population. Stratified sampling design is used to obtain a representative sample. However, stratification of the main characteristics of establishments may not always be computationally feasible, due to the high number of small and empty strata

Discourse analysis of six actors’ political lines, their conceptions, and their uses of French secularism (laïcité) between 2013 and 2018 shows that mobilization of laïcité as a value is correlated to the construction of Islam and Muslims as objects of security in France. Perception of military and identity insecurities goes along with mobilization of laïcité as a shield-value of the French Republic

A spatial multiple membership model formalizes the effect of neighborhood affluence on antenatal smoking. The data are geocoded New Jersey birth certificate records linked to United States census tract-level data from 1999 to 2007. Neighborhood affluence shows significant spatial autocorrelation and local clustering. Better model fit is observed when incorporating the spatial clustering of neighborhood

Nationally representative survey data and small-area estimation techniques are used to assess geographic prevalence of left-handedness in China 2011. Measures of individuals' handedness are self-reported dominant hand and hand grip strength, yielding four estimates of left-handed prevalence at the provincial level. These estimates concord with one another. There are several geographic clusters of high-prevalence

Unbiased estimation procedures of the mean total number of persons with a rare sensitive attribute apply for a clustered population under two-stage and stratified two-stage sampling schemes. Randomized response model is used to obtain the estimators, when the parameter of an unrelated rare non-sensitive attribute is either known or unknown. The variances of the resultant estimators are derived and

(2018). Survey sampling and small-area estimation. Mathematical Population Studies: Vol. 25, Survey sampling and small-area estimation, pp. 181-183.

(2018). Correction. Mathematical Population Studies: Vol. 25, Survey sampling and small-area estimation, pp. 248-248.

The ice bucket challenge is a social game aimed at encouraging donations to the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis association. The rules imply that each participant challenges each recruited follower to dump a bucket of ice water on his or her head. The network of who has nominated whom has a tree structure. The short duration of the ice bucket challenge is explained by using the reproduction number ,

In drawn-by-drawn sampling, elements are drawn one after another and drawing can be stopped at any time. It leads to ordered samples. This method is convenient to obtain spatially balanced samples. However, sampling may not need to be unordered. This is the case of Wywiał sampling designs, which are based on a neighborhood matrix. Their adaptation to drawn-by-drawn sampling has the merit to be of simple

For the critical branching random walk on the lattice Zd, in the case of an arbitrary total number of produced offspring spreading on the lattice from the parental particle, the existence of a limit distribution (which corresponds to a steady state (or statistical equilibrium)) of the population is proved. If the second factorial moment of the total number of offspring is much larger than the square

For X and Y two independent random variables, upper values from the family of distributions with power hazard function are used to obtain the maximum likelihood and the Bayes estimators of P(X>Y). The Bayes estimator relies on the squared-error loss function given informative and non-informative prior distributions. It is obtained by either Lindley’s approximation, Tierney and Kadane’s method, or Monte

Nonparametric Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of the population median are provided under Dirichlet process priors. The finite-population sampling is used to estimate the finite-population median under Dirichlet process priors. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained from a frequentist perspective.

An epidemic model with stochastic contact transmission coefficient takes into account white noise and the influence of information. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease are expressed. The existence of a stationary distribution and the ergodic property are proved. The peak of infected population can be decreased by information. The analytical results are showed by

Partial replacement of units in repeated surveys increases the efficiency of the estimation of the population mean. The composite estimator with constant coefficients, based on the recursive ratio, is useful in surveys with many variables. The mean square error of this estimator is obtained for an arbitrary rotation scheme. Comparisons indicate that it is more efficient than the sample mean for various

Candidate parametric mortality models are tested graphically. If the model is correct, the transformed data are distributed exponentially. The graphical test is based on scale and space inference. It involves smoothing of the hazard rate and simultaneous confidence intervals. It is applied to a frailty model used to set annuity reserves. Simulation and the comparison with other non-graphical tests

The web-push method has been shown to increase web response rates in general public surveys. Response rates from two waves of the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program’s Performance Measures Survey, a state-administered establishment survey, were compared to determine if the second wave's revised, centralized implementation strategy improved response rates and consistency across states. The

(2018). Design aspects of rating scales in questionnaires. Mathematical Population Studies: Vol. 25, Design Aspects of Rating Scales in Questionnaires, pp. 63-65.

Split-ballot multi-trait-multi-method experiments are used to evaluate the quality of measurement of different response scales of survey items gauging “evaluation of government services” and “political trust.” The response scales differ by agree/disagree scales, item-specific scales, total number of categories, and the presence of fixed reference points on their constructing extreme items. The Center

Violations of linearity, symmetry, and equidistance of scale points in semantic differential scales may be due to respondents failing to figure out antonyms, to a positivity bias, or to respondents curtailing their reading the options. Multiple correspondence analysis on data provided by a randomized between-subjects experiment (split-ballot), using a web survey of 537 German residents, shows that

The presentation and visual design of the “don’t know” category in rating scales on respondents’ behavior may have ambivalent effects. The hypothesis is that attitude strength toward the topic influences the respondents’ sensitivity to the graphical design of the scale. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire conducted among 307 German university students contained an experimental variation of the presentation

In an experiment dealing with the use of personal computer, tablet, or mobile, scale points (up to 5, 7, or 11) and response formats (bars or buttons) are varied to examine differences in mean scores and nonresponse. The total number of “not applicable” answers does not vary significantly. Personal computer has the lowest item nonresponse, followed by mobile and tablet, and a lower mean score than

The inadequate control of sample sizes in surveys using stratified sampling and area estimation may occur when the overall sample size is small or auxiliary information is insufficiently used. Very small sample sizes are possible for some areas. The proposed allocation based on multi-objective optimization uses a small-area model and estimation method and semi-collected empirical data annually collected

From 2018 onward, the population census in Italy will leave the traditional “door-to-door” enumeration for a “register-based” system combining administrative data and surveys. An integrated system of registers makes it possible to identify patterns and groups among huge amounts of administrative data. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) carried out a trial to compute the usually resident

The parameters of the distribution of alcohol consumption are estimated from the population mean and the mode of the log-normal distribution, separately for each sex. The lack of representativeness of the sample due to the failure to reach heavy drinkers is overcome. The distributions of alcohol consumption show a tight relationship between mean and standard deviation.

Family responsibilities for women are often associated with precarious employment. This relation varies depending on whether women can reconcile family life and work or not. Based on the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study from 1998 to 2008 and on the French part of the European Community Household Panel between 1998 and 2001, a multiple correspondence analysis shows that precariousness in employment

The Fay-Herriot area-level model for correlated response data is augmented with a between-groups-of-domains effect. Correlated-response parameters of small-area estimates no longer need the assumption of spatial contiguity. A simulation shows that area-level correlated-response observations increase the efficiency of the estimates, but do not reduce the biases.

Digital archives contribute to Big data. Combining social network analysis, coincidence analysis, data reduction, and visual analytics leads to better characterize topics over time, publishers’ main themes and best authors of all times, according to the British newspaper The Guardian and from the 3 million records of the British National Bibliography.

A review of studies based on big data shows that big data advantageously complete surveys and censuses, nurture policy making, and highlight effects of a given policy in real time.