Human movement is a key factor in infectious diseases spread such as dengue. Here, we explore a mathematical modeling approach based on a system of ordinary differential equations to study the effect of human movement on characteristics of dengue dynamics such as the existence of endemic equilibria, and the start, duration, and amplitude of the outbreak. The model considers that every day is divided

Muscle injury during aging predisposes skeletal muscles to increased damage due to reduced regenerative capacity. Some of the common causes of muscle injury are strains, while other causes are more complex muscle myopathies and other illnesses, and even excessive exercise can lead to muscle damage. We develop a new mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations of muscle regeneration.

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the importance of treatment-related decision making in populations. This article considers the case where the transmission rate of the disease as well as the eciency of treatments is subject to uncertainty. We consider two dierent regimes, or submodels, of the stochastic SIR model, where the population consists of three groups: susceptible, infected and recovered and

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread across the world, testing each nation’s ability to understand the state of the pandemic in their country and control it. As we looked into the epidemiological data to uncover the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, we discovered that critical metadata is missing which is meant to give context to epidemiological parameters. In this perspective, we identify key metadata for

For future application to studying regulation of microvascular oxygen delivery, a model is developed for O2 transport within an idealized volume of tissue, that is perfused by a continuous distribution of capillaries. Considering oxygen diffusion, convection, and consumption, an O2-dependent transfer term between the capillaries and tissue is used to extend previous single-compartment approaches to

In order to fulfill cell proliferation and differentiation through cellular hierarchy, stem cells can undergo either asymmetric or symmetric divisions. Recent studies pay special attention to the effect of different modes of stem cell division on the lifetime risk of cancer, and report that symmetric division is more beneficial to delay the onset of cancer. The fate uncertainty of symmetric division

Rooted phylogenetic networks provide a more complete representation of the ancestral relationship between species than phylogenetic trees when reticulate evolutionary processes are at play. One way to reconstruct a phylogenetic network is to consider its ‘ancestral profile’ (the number of paths from each ancestral vertex to each leaf). In general, this information does not uniquely determine the underlying

Understanding the way in which drug is released from drug carrying hydrogel based ophthalmic lenses aids in the development of efficient ophthalmic drug delivery. Various solute–polymer interactions affect solute diffusion within hydrogels as well as hydrogel–bulk partitioning. Additionally, surface modifications or coatings may add to resistance of mass transfer across the hydrogel interface. It is

Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We

Biodegradation is a pivotal natural process for elemental recycling and preservation of an ecosystem. Mechanistic modeling of biodegradation has to keep track of chemical elements via stoichiometric theory, under which we propose and analyze a spatial movement model in the absence or presence of bacterivorous grazing. Sensitivity analysis shows that the organic matter degradation rate is most sensitive

A model capturing the dynamics between virus and tumour cells in the context of oncolytic virotherapy is presented and analysed. The ability of the virus to be internalised by uninfected cells is described by an infectivity parameter, which is inferred from available experimental data. The parameter is also able to describe the effects of changes in the tumour environment that affect viral uptake from

Seasonal changes in temperature, humidity, and rainfall affect vector survival and emergence of mosquitoes and thus impact the dynamics of vector-borne disease outbreaks. Recent studies of deterministic and stochastic epidemic models with periodic environments have shown that the average basic reproduction number is not sufficient to predict an outbreak. We extend these studies to time-nonhomogeneous

The Colless index for bifurcating phylogenetic trees, introduced by Colless (1982), is defined as the sum, over all internal nodes v of the tree, of the absolute value of the difference of the sizes of the clades defined by the children of v. It is one of the most popular phylogenetic balance indices, because, in addition to measuring the balance of a tree in a very simple and intuitive way, it turns

Continuous-time stationary Markov jump processes among discrete sites are encountered in disparate biochemical ambits. Sites and connecting dynamical events form a ‘network’ in which the sites are the available system’s states, and the events are site-to-site transitions, or even neutral processes in which the system does not change site but the event is however detectable. Examples include conformational

We provide an overview of the methods that can be used for prediction under uncertainty and data fitting of dynamical systems, and of the fundamental challenges that arise in this context. The focus is on SIR-like models, that are being commonly used when attempting to predict the trend of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we raise a warning flag about identifiability of the parameters of SIR-like

We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations — we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, subject to hospital admissions never exceeding a threshold value corresponding to health-service capacity

In order to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing restrictions, which have been widely carried out as policy choice to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world, we formulate and discuss a staged and weighted network system based on a classical SEAIR epidemiological model. Five stages have been taken into consideration according to four-tier response to Public Health

Invasive species have had a profound impact on ecosystems all over the world. Their presence can lead to fundamental changes in the biodiversity of a given ecosystem as well as the extinction of native species. In particular, this work looks at the effect on the Gecarcoidea natalis (Red Crab) population on Christmas Island due to the presence of vast arrays of supercolonies containing Anoplolepis gracilipes

Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains, preventing a build up of immunity in the host population. In this paper, a parsimonious epidemic model is defined that attempts to capture the dynamics of evolving strains

A pervasive issue in stable isotope tracing and metabolic flux analysis is the presence of naturally occurring isotopes such as 13C. For mass isotopomer distributions (MIDs) measured by mass spectrometry, it is common practice to correct for natural occurrence of isotopes within metabolites of interest using a linear transform based on binomial distributions. The resulting corrected MIDs are often

Scratch assay is an easy and widely used “in vitro” technique to study cell migration and proliferation. In this work we focus on its modelling and on the capability to distinguish between these two phenomena that the simpler and common models are not able to disentangle. We adapted a model based on reaction–diffusion equation for being used with common microscopy instruments/data and therefore taking

This paper investigates the lockdowns to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US and also recent developments since these lockdowns have been relaxed. The analysis employs a two-stage SEIR model with different reproductive numbers pre- and post-lockdown. These parameters are estimated from data on the daily number of confirmed cases in a

With the purpose of modeling the demographic dynamics of biological species in which different mating and reproduction alternatives are feasible, in Molina et al. (2014) we introduced a new mathematical model based on discrete-time branching processes. Assuming that the reproduction phase is governed by probability distributions belonging to the power series family, some reproductive parameters for

We combine a pedestrian dynamics model with a contact tracking method to simulate the initial spreading of a highly infectious airborne disease in a confined environment. We focus on a medium size population (up to 1000 people) with a small number of infectious people (1 or 2) and the rest of the people are divided between immune and susceptible. We adopt a space-continuous model that represents pedestrian

In the paper, we propose a semiparametric framework for modeling the COVID-19 pandemic. The stochastic part of the framework is based on Bayesian inference. The model is informed by the actual COVID-19 data and the current epidemiological findings about the disease. The framework combines many available data sources (number of positive cases, number of patients in hospitals and in intensive care, etc

Elevated intraocular pressure is the primary risk factor for glaucoma, yet vascular health and ocular hemodynamics have also been established as important risk factors for the disease. The precise physiological mechanisms and processes by which flow impairment and reduced tissue oxygenation relate to retinal ganglion cell death are not fully known. Mathematical modeling has emerged as a useful tool

The application of local hyperthermia, particularly in conjunction with other treatment strategies (like chemotherapy and radiotherapy) has been known to be a useful means of enhancing tumor treatment outcomes. However, to our knowledge, there has been no mathematical model designed to capture the impact of the combination of hyperthermia and chemotherapies on tumor growth and control. In this study

The community lockdown measures implemented in the United States from late March to late May of 2020 resulted in a significant reduction in the community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the country. However, a number of US states are currently experiencing an alarming post-lockdown resurgence of the pandemic, triggering fears for a devastating second pandemic wave. We designed a mathematical

Crossbridge theory, originally developed by A.F. Huxley more than 60 years ago to explain the behaviour of striated muscle, has since evolved to encompass many different muscle types and behaviours. The governing equations are generally linear hyperbolic partial differential equations, or systems thereof, describing the evolution of probability density functions. Importantly, the macroscopic behaviour

On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases. We model this quarantine with a SEIR model including asymptomatic infections with differentiated shipboard roles for

Since its emergence late in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to exude major public health and socio-economic burden globally. South Africa is currently the epicenter for the pandemic in Africa. This study is based on the use of a compartmental model to analyze the transmission dynamics of the disease in South Africa. A notable feature of the model is the incorporation of the role of environmental

Residential colleges and universities face unique challenges in providing in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Administrators are currently faced with decisions about whether to open during the pandemic and what modifications of their normal operations might be necessary to protect students, faculty and staff. There is little information, however, on what measures are likely to be most

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is causing devastating demographic, social, and economic damage globally. Understanding current patterns of the pandemic spread and forecasting its long-term trajectory is essential in guiding policies aimed at curtailing the pandemic. This is particularly important in regions with weak economies and fragile health care systems such as West Africa. We formulate

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious disease caused by the infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is spreading and causing the global coronavirus pandemic. The viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection have not been quantitatively investigated. In this paper, we use mathematical models to study the pathogenic features of SARS-CoV-2 infection by examining

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused several million confirmed cases worldwide. The necessity of keeping open and accessible public commercial establishments such as supermarkets or pharmacies increases during the pandemic provided that distancing rules and crowd control are satisfied. Herein, using agent-based models, we explore the potential spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2

The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes into the population of wild mosquitoes is one of the promising biological control method for combating the population abundance of mosquitoes that cause deadly diseases, such as dengue. In this study, a new two-sex mathematical model for the population ecology of dengue mosquitoes and disease is designed and used to assess the population-level impact of

We consider a non homogeneous Gompertz diffusion process whose parameters are modified by generally time-dependent exogenous factors included in the infinitesimal moments. The proposed model is able to describe tumor dynamics under the effect of anti-proliferative and/or cell death-induced therapies. We assume that such therapies can modify also the infinitesimal variance of the diffusion process.

The benefits of optimization-based modeling for parameter estimation of Hill-type muscle models are demonstrated. Therefore, we examined the model and data of Günther et al. (2007), who analyzed isometric, concentric, and quick-release contractions of a piglet calf muscle. We found that the isometric experiments are suitable for derivative-based parameter estimation while the others did not provide

This study investigates the effect that upper body vibration has on the recovery rate of the biceps muscle. A mathematical model that accounts for vibration is developed by adapting three vibration terms into the Stephenson and Kojourahov skeletal muscle regeneration mathematical model. The first term accounts for the increase in the influx rate of type 1 macrophages (P1). These cells are part of the

In this paper we analyse stochastic expression of a single gene with its dynamics given by the classical Goodwin model with mRNA and protein contribution. We compare the effect of the presence of positive and negative feedback on the transcription regulation. In such cases we observe two qualitatively different types of asymptotic behaviour. In the case of a negative feedback loop, under sufficient

Tendon-to-bone insertion provides a gradual transition from soft tendon to hard bone tissue, functioning to alleviate stress concentrations at the junction of these tissues. Such macroscopic mechanical properties are achieved due to the internal structure in which collagen fibers and mineralization levels are key ingredients. We develop a structural-based model of tendon-to-bone insertion incorporating

Host–parasitoid population dynamics is often probed using a semi-discrete/hybrid modeling framework. Here, the update functions in the discrete-time model connecting year-to-year changes in the population densities are obtained by solving ordinary differential equations that mechanistically describe interactions when hosts become vulnerable to parasitoid attacks. We use this semi-discrete formalism

Lockdown and social distancing restrictions have been widely used as part of policy efforts aimed at controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Since these restrictions have a negative impact on the economy, there exists a strong incentive to relax these policies while protecting public health. Using a modified SEIR epidemiological model, this paper explores the costs and benefits associated with the

Mutual interference and prey refuge are important drivers of predator–prey dynamics. The “exponent” or degree of mutual interference has been under much debate in theoretical ecology. In the present work, we investigate the interplay of the mutual interference exponent, and prey refuge, on the behavior of a predator–prey model with a generalized Holling type functional response — considering in particular

We worked out the growth and dissolution rates of an arterial gas embolism (AGE), to illustrate the evolution over time of its size and composition, and the time required for its total dissolution. We did this for a variety of breathing gases including air, pure oxygen, Nitrox and Heliox (each over a range of oxygen mole fractions), in order to assess how the breathing gas influenced the evolution

The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modeling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread

Drugs of abuse, such as opiates, have been widely associated with diminishing host-immune responses, including suppression of HIV-specific antibody responses. In particular, periodic intake of the drugs of abuse can result in time-varying periodic antibody level within HIV-infected individuals, consequently altering the HIV dynamics. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to analyze the effects

The many variations on a graphic illustrating the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures to mitigate pandemic influenza that have appeared in recent news reports about COVID-19 suggest a need to better explain the mechanism by which social distancing reduces the spread of infectious diseases. And some reports understate one benefit of reducing the frequency or proximity of interpersonal encounters,

Delay differential equations are used as a model when the effect of past states has to be taken into account. In this work we consider delay models of chemical reaction networks with mass action kinetics. We obtain a sufficient condition for absolute delay stability of equilibrium concentrations, i.e., local asymptotic stability independent of the delay parameters. Several interesting examples on sequestration

Stem cells in the bone marrow differentiate to ultimately become mature, functioning blood cells through a tightly regulated process (hematopoiesis) including a stem cell niche interaction and feedback through the immune system. Mutations in a hematopoietic stem cell can create a cancer stem cell leading to a less controlled production of malfunctioning cells in the hematopoietic system. This was mathematically

The emerging coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has caused a COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 causes a generally mild, but sometimes severe and even life-threatening infection, known as COVID-19. Currently, there exist no effective vaccines or drugs and, as such, global public authorities have so far relied upon non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Since COVID-19 symptoms are aspecific and may resemble a common

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) is a pleiotropic cytokine produced by immune cells; it can play a protective or deleterious role in response to pathogens. The intracellular malaria parasite secretes a similar protein, PMIF. The present paper is concerned with severe malarial anemia (SMA), where MIF suppresses the recruitment of red blood cells (RBCs) from the spleen and the bone marrow

During the templated biopolymerization processes of transcription and translation, a macromolecular machine, either an RNA polymerase or a ribosome, binds to a specific site on the template. Due to the sizes of these enzymes, there is a waiting time before one clears the binding site and another can bind. These clearance delays are relatively short, and one might think that they could be neglected

Malaria, a deadly infectious disease caused by the protozoan Plasmodium, remains a major public health menace affecting at least half the human race. Although the large-scale usage of insecticides-based control measures, notably long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), have led to a dramatic reduction of the burden of this global scourge between the period 2000 to

Sanitary Emergency Measures (SEM) were implemented in Mexico on March 30th, 2020 requiring the suspension of non-essential activities. This action followed a Healthy Distance Sanitary action on March 23rd, 2020. The aim of both measures was to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 in Mexico by lowering the effective contact rate. Using a modification of the Kermack-McKendrick SEIR model we explore

Despite centuries of enormous control efforts, mosquito-borne diseases continue to show upward trend of morbidity. According to WHO reports, malaria caused 438000 deaths in the year 2015 and dengue cases have been increased 30-fold over the last five decades. To control these diseases, it is necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of them among mosquitoes. There are some vertically transmitted

A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks

The reaction-diffusion equation is one of the possible ways for modeling animal movement, where the reactive part stands for the population growth and the diffusive part for random dispersal of the population. However, a reaction-diffusion model may not represent all aspects of the spatial dynamics, because of the existence of distinct mechanisms that can affect the movement, such as spatial memory

This paper deals with a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with Erlang(k,μ) distributed infectious period commonly referred as SIkR model. We show that using the total number of remaining Erlang stages as the state variable, we do not need to keep track of the stages of individual infections, and can employ a first step analysis to efficiently obtain quantities of interest. We study