Due to the nature of the distributed lag model, researchers are likely to encounter the problem of multicollinearity in this model. Biased estimation techniques, one of which is Almon ridge estimation, are alternatively considered instead of Almon estimation with the aim of recovering the multicollinearity. Although estimation performance is often taken into consideration, predictive performance is

The complexity of seismogenesis requires the development of stochastic models, the application of which aims to improve our understanding on the seismic process and the associated underlying mechanisms. Seismogenesis in the Corinth Gulf (Greece) is modeled through a Constrained-Memory Stress Release Model (CM-SRM), which combines the gradual increase of the strain energy due to continuous slow tectonic

The study reported in this article investigated the relationship between higher education and environmental sustainability with control variables including foreign direct investment, electricity consumption, population, and gross domestic product from 30 provinces in China during the 2000–2018 period. The data were analyzed with cross-sectional dependency tests, panel unit-root tests, Kao cointegration

The Neyman–Scott processes introduced so far assume a symmetric distribution for the positions of the offspring points and this makes them inappropriate for modelling the skewed and bimodal clustered patterns and is a hindrance in fitting them to data that exhibit skewness or bimodality. In this paper, we apply the bivariate alpha-skew-normal distribution to the locations of the offspring points and

Efficient energy production and distribution systems are urgently needed to reduce world climate change. Since modern district heating systems are sustainable energy distribution services that exploit renewable sources and avoid energy waste, in-depth knowledge of thermal energy demand, which is mainly affected by weather conditions, is essential to enhance heat production schedules. We hence propose

Evolution processes of multiple competitive and non-competitive species have traditionally been handled using different methods. In particular, evolution processes of multiple competitive species have usually been evaluated by the continuous and discrete proportions analysis; however, such evolution processes cannot be solely characterized by their relative proportions in practice. In this paper, we

Estimating bird and bat mortality at wind facilities typically involves searching for carcasses on the ground near turbines. Some fraction of carcasses inevitably lie outside the search plots, and accurate mortality estimation requires accounting for those carcasses using models to extrapolate from searched to unsearched areas. Such models should account for variation in carcass density with distance

The longitude, latitude and depth of the hypocenter in 3-D space and the date and time of rupture makes an earthquake a “point” in a spatio-temporal point pattern, observed over a region and months, years or decades. The magnitude of earthquakes marks the point pattern, as would hypocenter depth do if only the longitude and latitude of epicenters were used for location in 2-D space. Stochastic declustering

In this paper we present a detailed comparison of the prediction error based model selection criteria in circular random effects models. The study is primarily motivated by the need for an understanding of their performance in real life ecological and environmental applications. Prediction errors are based on posterior predictive distributions and the model selection methods are adjusted for the circular

This paper empirically explores the dynamic relationships between financial development, globalization, energy consumption, economic growth, and ecological footprint in G7 countries over the period 1980–2015. Using a recently introduced threshold cointegration test with an endogenous structural break, the paper aims primarily to determine the effects of financial development and globalization on environmental

We consider the problem of estimating the mean function from a pair of paleoclimatic functional data sets after one of them has been registered with the other. We establish that registering one data set with respect to the other is the appropriate way to formulate this problem. This is in contrast with estimation of the mean function on a ‘central’ time scale that is preferred in the analysis of multiple

This study examines the runoff prediction of each hydrometric station and each month in the mainstream of the Yellow River in China. From the perspective of functional data, the monthly runoff of each hydrometric station can be regarded as a function of both time and space. A sequence of such functions is formed by collecting the data over the years. We propose a new approach by combining the two-dimensional

Efforts are being made to contain rabies in Tanzania, reported in the southern highland regions, since 1954, and endemic in all districts in Tanzania currently. It has been determined that mass vaccination of at least \(70\%\) of a domestic animal population is most effective in reducing transmission of rabies. Current vaccination campaigns in Tanzanian villages have many administrative and logistical

The paper investigates the non-linear causality from energy consumption and economic growth to ecological footprint for the case of Turkey by employing ARDL Models and ECM-Based Granger Causality over the period from 1961 to 2016. The major contribution of the article to the literature is that (i) the data period of the empirical analysis of the study is much longer than the one of the other studies

Teleconnection, the strong dependence between two distant locations, provides interesting information for discovering the structures in spatial data. While teleconnections are often sparse and estimated through sample correlations, there are also abundant correlations among nearby locations. We propose a far-near covariance model that simultaneously models the abundant short-distance dependencies and

This paper introduces a time-varying parameter regression model for modeling, forecasting, and assessing inter-annual trends in daily snow depths. The time-varying parameter regression is written in a simple state-space representation and forecasted using a Kalman filter. The recursive Kalman filter algorithm updates the time-varying parameter sequentially when a new data point becomes available and

Management of large-scale pelagic fisheries relies heavily on fishery data to provide information on tuna population status because, for widely distributed populations, the cost of collecting survey data is often prohibitively high. However, fishery data typically do not provide direct information on interactions among fishing vessels, and thus methods of analysis often assume that vessels operate

This paper illustrates the use of diffusion kernels to estimate smooth density and regression functions defined on highly complex domains. We generalize the two-dimensional lattice-based estimators of Barry and McIntyre (2011) and McIntyre and Barry (2018) to estimate any function defined on a domain that may be embedded in \(\mathbb {R}^d\), \(d\ge 1\). Examples include function estimation on the

The presence and establishment of a tree species at a particular spatial location is influenced by multiple physiological and environmental filters such as propagule pressure (seed availability), light and moisture availability, and slope and elevation. However, a less understood environmental filter to species-specific establishment is competition or facilitation between dominant tree species. For

When working with contemporary spatial ecological datasets, statistical modellers are often confronted by two major challenges: (I) the need for covariance models with the flexibility to accommodate directional patterns of anisotropy; and (II) the computational effort demanded by high-dimensional inverse and determinant problems involving the covariance matrix \(\vec {V}\). In the case of rectangular

This paper presents an extension of the Geostatistical model under preferential sampling in order to accommodate possible local repulsion effects. This local repulsion can be caused by the researcher in charge of collecting data who, after observing the stochastic process of interest in a specific location, avoids collecting new samples near this place. Proceeding in this way, the resulting sampling

Flash floods have devastating power due to their high rainfall intensities and short durations, causing serious damage to infrastructure and human life. Recent observations in the desert environment of Kuwait witnessed an increase in rainfall extremes, and the currently adopted intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves constructed three decades ago did not produce reliable design frequencies for existing

Optimizing sustainable renewable energy portfolios is one of the most complicated decision making problems in energy policy planning. This process involves meeting the decision maker’s preferences, which can be uncertain, while considering several conflicting criteria, such as environmental, societal, and economic impact. In this paper, rather than using existing techniques, a novel multi-objective

We develop a new method for estimating population abundance for notoriously difficult to count populations. This is made possible using an easy to count auxiliary population with a known link to the target population under the framework of a layered hidden Markov model. We apply the new methods to estimate the breeding population of an Ancient Murrelet seabird colony, using Ancient Murrelet chicks

We investigate a framework for improving predictions from models for spatio-temporal data. The framework is based on minimising the mean squared prediction error and can be applied to many models. We applied the framework to a model for monthly rainfall data in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Across a range of prediction situations, we improved the predictive accuracy compared to predictions

We propose a new extended regression model based on the logarithm of the generalized odd log-logistic Weibull distribution with four systematic components for the analysis of survival data. This regression model can be very useful and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters for censored data and address

In this paper we present a weighted mixture distribution component counts (MDCC) approach for estimating total number of species. The proposed method combines conditional estimates of component counts from several candidate mixture distributions and uses bootstrap for confidence interval estimation. The distribution specification is flexible and can be adjusted to suit a variety of datasets. Smoothing

We propose a spatiotemporal generalized von Bertalanffy (vonB) growth model that also includes between-individual (BI) variation and male/female correlation. The generalized vonB model includes the effect of maturation on growth. The model and the methodology are applied to a long time-series of survey observations of age and length for American plaice on the Grand Bank off the northeast coast of Canada

Few studies have attempted to study the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis at the individual sector level using more than one sector at once. This paper investigates the existence of the EKC hypothesis in the Iberian countries (Portugal and Spain) using thirteen economic activity sectors for each, analyzing each individual sector’s cointegration and causality relationships considering carbon

When investigating extremes of weather variables, it is seldom that a single weather station determines the damage, and extremes may be caused from the combined behaviour of several weather stations. To investigate joint dependence of extreme wind speed, a bivariate generalised extreme value distribution (BGEVD) was considered from frequentist and Bayesian approaches to analyse the extremes of component-wise

The statistical analysis of environmental data from remote sensing and Earth system simulations often entails the analysis of gridded spatio-temporal data, with a hypothesis test being performed for each grid cell. When the whole image or a set of grid cells are analyzed for a global effect, the problem of multiple testing arises. When no global effect is present, we expect \( \alpha \)% of all grid

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a family of statistical methods where species occurrence/density/richness are combined with environmental predictors to create predictive spatial models of species distribution. However, it often turns out that due to complex multi-level interactions between predictors and the response function, different types of models can detect different numbers of important

Cetacean abundance estimation often relies on distance sampling methods using shipboard visual line-transect surveys, which assumes that all animals on the trackline are detected and that the detection of animals decreases with increasing distance from the trackline. Mark–Recapture Distance Sampling (MRDS) typically employs a secondary visual observation team and may be used to identify the fraction

The results show that a comprehensive evaluation system consisting of natural resources, pollution response, government management, and legal involvement can systematically assess the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of environmental governance. The information entropy weight (IEW) method and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) are jointly used to analyze the

The paper proposes a new perspective in the environmental and resource economics literature by examining innovation (measured by R&D expenditures), FDI (measured by country–country technology transfer), and energy–environment–growth nexus. Using simultaneous equation modelling (SEMs), three econometric functions were formulated for production, energy consumption, and environmental pollution with GDP

For spatial linear regression, the traditional approach to capture spatial dependence is to use a parametric linear mixed-effects model. Spline surfaces can be used as an alternative to capture spatial variability, giving rise to a semiparametric method that does not require the specification of a parametric covariance structure. The spline component in such a semiparametric method, however, impacts

In this note we would like to point out that the lower bound estimator of the frequency of hidden units in a target population, developed by Chao in ecology, was developed independently in astro-physics and has been used to estimate the size of flare stars in the Pleiades.

For many clustered populations, the prior information on an initial stratification exists but the exact pattern of the population concentration may not be predicted. Under this situation, the stratified adaptive cluster sampling (SACS) may provide more efficient estimates than the other conventional sampling designs for the estimation of rare and clustered population parameters. For practical interest

To qualify niche space and niche overlap, the current methods are based on a strict assumption of the normal distribution and restrict dependence to the linear structure between resource axes. In this study, we propose a new method for measuring the stoichiometric niche space and niche overlap based on copula theory. Our method does not require the resource axes to obey the multivariate normal distribution

Functional data analysis tools, such as function-on-function regression models, have received considerable attention in various scientific fields because of their observed high-dimensional and complex data structures. Several statistical procedures, including least squares, maximum likelihood, and maximum penalized likelihood, have been proposed to estimate such function-on-function regression models

This paper develops statistical inference for population mean and total using stratified judgment post-stratified (SJPS) samples. The SJPS design selects a judgment post-stratified sample from each stratum. Hence, in addition to stratum structure, it induces additional ranking structure within stratum samples. SJPS is constructed from a finite population using either a with or without replacement sampling

Statistical packages such as edgeR and DESeq are intended to detect genes that are relevant to phenotypic traits and diseases. A few studies have also modeled the relationships between gene expressions and traits. In the presence of multicollinearity and outliers, which are unavoidable in genetic data, the robust ridge regression estimator can be applied with the trait value as the response variable

The mitigation of CO2 emissions requires a global effort with common but differentiated responsibilities. In this paper, we identify clusters of CO2 emissions across 72 countries. First, using the stochastic version of the IPAT and employing the dynamic common correlated effects technique, we identify three key determinants affecting CO2 emissions (non-renewables, population, and real GDP). In the

Model averaging is commonly used to allow for model uncertainty in parameter estimation. As well as providing a point estimate that is a natural compromise between the estimates from different models, it also provides confidence intervals with better coverage properties, compared to those based on a single best model. In recent years, the concept of a confidence distribution has been promoted as a

An important objective of experimental biology is the quantification of the relationship between sets of predictor and response variables, a statistical analysis often termed variance partitioning (VP). In this paper, a series of simulations is presented, aiming to generate quantitative estimates of the expected statistical uncertainty of VP analyses. We demonstrate scenarios with considerable uncertainty

A spatiotemporal calibration and resolution refinement model was fitted to calibrate nitrogen dioxide (\(\hbox {NO}_2\)) concentration estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, using two sources of observed data on \(\hbox {NO}_2\) that differed in their spatial and temporal resolutions. To refine the spatial resolution of the CMAQ model estimates, we leveraged information using

This study investigates the role of tourism growth in generating additional energy consumption in the case of major tourist countries. Panel data that range from 1995 to 2014 have thus been constructed. Significant results of this study confirm long term economic effects of tourism growth in energy usage in tourist destinations; tourism exerts positively significant but inelastic effects on the overall

We introduce a new type of threshold regression models called upper hinge models. Under this type of threshold models, there only exists an association between the predictor of interest and the outcome when the predictor is less than some threshold value. Just like hinge models, upper hinge models can be seen as a special case of the more general segmented or two-phase regression models. The importance

The majority of control charts based on scan statistics for spatio-temporal surveillance use full observation vectors. In high-dimensional applications, dimension-reduction techniques are usually applied. Typically, the dimension reduction is conducted as a post-processing step rather than in the data acquisition stage and thus, a full sample covariance matrix is required. When the dimensionality of

In order to promote the construction of disaster prevention and reduction of ethnic minority aggregation areas, in this study the Qijiawan community of the Hui people in Nanjing was taken as an example in order to build an evaluation index system of the disaster reduction ability of ethnic minority aggregation areas. In the research process, data were collected in the form of expert scores, the weights

Human activities are increasingly affecting the planet and its sustainability by degrading and damaging the environment. The literature on this topic has demonstrated that Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and human development (HD) are important promoters of progress towards environmental sustainability. The impact of these factors is most often examined by using standard regression

Radon-222 is a naturally occurring radioactive gas arising from the decay of Uranium-238 present in the earth’s crust. The knowledge of the radon effects on human health is generating a growing attention by national and international authorities aimed at assessing the exposure of people to this radioactive gas and identifying building types and geographic areas where high indoor radon concentrations

A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to study the rate at which a pollutant’s concentration exceeds a given threshold of interest. An anisotropic spatial model is imposed on the parameters of the Poisson intensity function. The main contribution here is to allow the presence of change-points in time since the data may behave differently for different time frames in a given observational period

Because of the dramatic changes that are being observed in the climatic conditions of the world, such as excess of rains, drought and huge floods, we introduce a versatile hydrologic probability model with three parameters. The proposed model is a combination of the Lomax and generalized Weibull distributions based on an exponent odd function. Main properties of the distribution are obtained, such

Identifying where, when, and how many animals live and die over time is principal to understanding factors that influence population dynamics. Capture–recapture–recovery (CRR) models are widely used to estimate animal survival and, in many cases, quantify specific causes of mortality (e.g., harvest, predation, starvation). However, the restrictive CRR framework can inhibit the consideration and inclusion

In Mediterranean areas, the co-evolution between social and natural systems has given rise to heterogeneous and complex systems of interactions called agroecosystems, in which strong relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows have been identified. In this context, water resources management is a prominent area of research, particularly in semi-arid conditions, where a special set

Calibration of hydrological time-series models is a challenging task since these models give a wide spectrum of output series and calibration procedures require significant amount of time. From a statistical standpoint, this model parameter estimation problem simplifies to finding an inverse solution of a computer model that generates pre-specified time-series output (i.e., realistic output series)

The standard approach to modeling survival times, or more generally, time to event data, is often based on parametric assumptions that may not fit the data collected well. One of the goals of this article is to discuss and compare several commonly used parametric and non-parametric, as well as a Bayesian semi-parametric method for survival data. We do so in the context of the data from an experimental

Several models have been proposed to describe the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. Intuitive interpretation of model parameters and simplicity are some of the main characteristics of mechanistic models. Another possibility is the use of statistical models, which have their advantages but are not easy to interpret. The state-space model (SSM), also known as a mechanistic time series model, incorporates

The publication of official statistics at different levels of aggregation requires a benchmarking step. Difficulties arise when a benchmarking method needs to be applied to a triplet of related estimates, at multiple stages of aggregation. For ratios of totals, external benchmarking constraints for the triplet (numerator, denominator, ratio) are that the weighted sum of denominator/numerator/ratio