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Asking about Social Circles Improves Election Predictions Even with Many Political Parties International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2022-04-13 Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Mirta Galesic, Rasmus Bååth, Jochem de Bresser, Lars Hall, Petter Johansson, Thomas Strandberg, Arthur van Soest
Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants’ own voting intentions. In four elections, we previously found that we could improve predictions by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. A potential concern is that the social-circle question might predict results less well in elections with larger numbers of political options because it becomes harder to accurately
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Skin Tones and Polarized Politics: How Skin Color Differences Between Interviewers and Respondents Influence Survey Answers in Bolivia International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2022-02-16 Maxime Blanchard
Abstract American scholarship claims that the racial make-up of interviews influences the attitudes disclosed in public opinion surveys. It remains unclear whether such an effect travels to other cases where racial cleavages are less salient, and whether it affects all respondents. We address these gaps by using a flexible approach focusing on skin tone rather than race. Relying on survey data from
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It’s the Messenger: Identity-Based Evaluation of Amicable Messages During Conflict International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2022-02-16 Dana Chudy,Zohar Kampf
Abstract Despite the potential of amicable messages to transform the course of conflicts, studies have neglected the reasons target audiences accept or reject such messages. This study examines the evaluation of amicable messages conveyed by three groups of leaders perceived as “controversial” in the context of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict from the Israeli perspective: Palestinian, Middle Eastern
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Measuring Political Knowledge and Not Search Proficiency in Online Surveys International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2022-02-16 Matthew DeBell
Abstract Most online survey questions testing political knowledge are susceptible to measurement error when participants look up the answers. This article reports five studies of methods to detect and prevent this common source of error. To detect lookups, “catch questions” are more reliable than self-reports, because many participants lie rather than admit looking up answers. Strongly worded instructions
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A Panel Study of Attitudes toward Ethnic Minorities and the Role of Changes in Individuals’ Economic Situations International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2022-02-16 Inge Hendriks,Marcel Lubbers,Peer Scheepers
Abstract This study applies the dynamic perspective of realistic conflict theory to assess whether and the extent that individuals’ negative attitudes toward ethnic minorities changed and were linked to changes in individuals’ economic situations. Employing Dutch panel data, we found that negative attitudes toward ethnic minorities were remarkably stable. Differences in attitudes toward ethnic minorities
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Corrigendum to: Flooding the Zone: How Exposure to Implausible Statements Shapes Subsequent Belief Judgments International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-12-10 Ulusoy E, Carnahan D, Bergan D, et al.
International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2021. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edab022.
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Opinion Trends on Moral Issues in the United States and the United Kingdom Explained by the Applicability of Generally Accepted Arguments International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2022-01-12 Kimmo Eriksson, Irina Vartanova, Pontus Strimling
According to a recent theory, public opinion on moral issues will trend toward opinions that are justified by generally acceptable kinds of arguments. Both in the United States and the United Kingdom, generally acceptable kinds of arguments include concerns about harm, violence, fairness, and liberty. The theory therefore predicts that these countries will exhibit similar opinion trends on moral issues
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Citizens’ Aversion to Pay Raises for Politicians: The Risk of Self-Interest Matter More Than the Promise of Competence International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2022-01-03 Rasmus T Pedersen, Kristina J Hansen, Lene H Pedersen
Citizens value competence in politicians. However, while offering high pay is a key strategy when recruiting competent candidates in the job market, most citizens are highly averse to paying politicians higher salaries. We argue that this aversion arises from one fundamental concern among citizens: self-interested politicians. Using data from a large-scale preregistered survey experiment, we show that
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The Private Is Political: Partisan Persuasion through Mobile Instant Messaging Services International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-12-16 Josep Lobera, Martín Portos
The use of mobile instant messaging services (MIMS) for the dissemination of electoral information has been increasing in recent years. Drawing on a novel dataset from a 2015 post-electoral survey in Spain, we focus on individuals’ digital political behavior, both public and private. Our results show that, in a context of high electoral volatility and polarization, right-wing supporters are willing
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Crime, Violence, and Political Participation International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-12-15 Carew Boulding, Shawnna Mullenax, Kathryn Schauer
The paper explores the relationship between crime victimization and political participation, making the argument that the observed (and oft-cited) relationship in surveys is the result of response bias. We show that people who are more extroverted, efficacious, and opinionated are more likely to respond positively to a question about victimization, and they are more likely to participate in politics
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Can Religion Save Corrupt Politicians? Evidence from Indonesia International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-11-19 Nathanael Gratias Sumaktoyo,Burhanuddin Muhtadi
Abstract Does endorsing an Islamist agenda protect a candidate involved in corruption from negative voter evaluations? The corruption literature suggests that voter reactions to corruption are not unbiased and as such Islamist agendas could potentially mitigate the negative effects of a corruption scandal, especially in religious societies. The political Islam literature suggests that endorsing an
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You Are Wrong Because I Am Right! The Perceived Causes and Ideological Biases of Misinformation Beliefs International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-11-19 Michael Hameleers,Anna Brosius
Abstract In the context of increasing concerns about false and deceptive information in public opinion, this research note explores which causes and sources news users associate with the dissemination of misinformation. Based on representative survey data collected in the Netherlands (N = 1,994), we found that news users distinguish unintentional causes related to uncertain evidence and lacking expert
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Does Corruption Corrupt? The Behavioral Effects of Mediated Exposure to Corruption International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-11-15 Israel Waismel-Manor, Patricia Moy, Rico Neumann, Moran Shechnick
Corruption is a complex, widespread phenomenon with harmful economic and societal effects. Drawing upon theories in social psychology, political science, and communication, this study examines the direct and joint effects of mediated exposure to grand corruption and the presence of monetary incentives on people’s likelihood to engage in dishonest behavior. In a 2 × 2 factorial design (N = 404), half
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Hear No Evil, See No Evil: Motivated Reasoning, Drone Warfare, and the Effects of Message Framing on US Public Opinion International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-11-10 Charles M Rowling, Joan M Blauwkamp
We conducted a poll with a survey-experimental design to examine whether variations in how the US policy of drone warfare was framed significantly impacted public support. Consistent with scholarship on motivated reasoning and valence framing, we find that respondents could be primed to express significantly greater or lesser support based on questions that either affirmed or challenged: the strategic
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Erratum to: Risk Aversion and Strategic Voting International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-09-14 Danielle Martin
International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2021. DOI: https://doi:10.1093/ijpor/edab004
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The Effect of Gain-versus-Loss Framing of Economic and Health Prospects of Different COVID-19 Interventions: An Experiment Integrating Equivalence and Emphasis Framing International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-10-19 Michael Hameleers, Mark Boukes
A survey experiment was conducted that exposed Dutch citizens to different scenarios that either emphasized the gains or the losses regarding the number of victims or the economic damage caused by SARS-CoV-2. Replicating prospect theory in an ecologically valid crisis context, we found that gain frames promoted risk-aversive preferences, whereas loss frames increased support for risk-seeking alternatives
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What Do You Mean by “Democrat” and “Republican”? Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-10-13 Ikuma Ogura, Hirofumi Miwa, Takeshi Iida
To better understand the nature of American mass party identification, it is crucial to examine how voters understand terms used in measuring partisanship in public opinion surveys, such as “Democrat” and “Republican.” For this purpose, we conducted a conjoint experiment where respondents evaluated hypothetical profiles’ partisanship. We show that, in contrast to previous studies which rely on one
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Varieties of Populist Attitudes and Their Link to Islamophobia in Switzerland International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-09-14 Franzisca Schmidt, Beatrice Eugster, Dorothee Arlt
The aim of this article is to show whether distinct varieties of populist attitudes emerge within a society, and how they relate to citizens’ Islamophobic attitudes. The study is based on a representative survey conducted in Switzerland in 2019. We used latent class analysis and multinomial regression analyses to identify latent subgroups, yielding five classes of populist attitudes: direct democracy
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A Comparison of Geosampling and Random Walk Methods for Household Sample Selection in Uttar Pradesh, India International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-09-08 Charles Q Lau, Jennifer Unangst, Stephanie Eckman, Pramod Bhatt, Jonathan Evans, Martha McRoy, Kelsey Starr, Lisa Thalji, Justine Allpress, Kasey Jones, Jamie Cajka, John David Bunker
Our research evaluates an innovative sampling technique for household surveys called “geosampling” which leverages recent advances in geographic information systems, computer vision algorithms, and satellite imagery. We compare geosampling to the random walk method. We conducted two surveys in Uttar Pradesh, India: one using geosampling (1,026 completes) and another using random walk (939 completes)
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Particularized Trust, Institutional Trust, and Generalized Trust: An Examination of Causal Pathways International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-09-08 Seung Hyun Kim, Sangmook Kim
This study attempts to resolve two issues in social trust research: the negative or positive effect of particularized trust (PT) and the causality between institutional trust (IT) and generalized trust (GT). It analyzes two types of data from South Korea: pooled data of cross-sectional national probability surveys; and online experimental three-wave panel data. Analyses of cross-sectional data suggest
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Flooding the Zone: How Exposure to Implausible Statements Shapes Subsequent Belief Judgments International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-09-08 Ezgi Ulusoy, Dustin Carnahan, Daniel E Bergan, Rachel C Barry, Siyuan Ma, Suhwoo Ahn, Johnny McGraw
Much scholarly attention has been paid to the effects of misinformation on beliefs and attitudes, but rarely have studies investigated potential downstream effects of misinformation exposure on belief judgments involving subsequent factual statements. Drawing from work on anchoring-and-adjustment and defensive reasoning, this study examines how exposure to initial falsehoods that vary in terms of their
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Polarization Between the Rich and the Poor? The Dynamics and Structure of Redistributive Preferences in a Comparative Perspective International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-08-19 Xavier Romero-Vidal, Steven M Van Hauwaert
Citizens’ support for redistribution varies largely between and within countries. An important empirical challenge in this field is the scarcity of comparative data, which this study overcomes by designing a novel time-series cross-sectional dataset that spans more than three decades in seven European countries. Using nearly 300 surveys and a dyadic ratios algorithm, we estimate aggregate redistributive
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“According to the Polls…” Opinion Poll Coverage in Network Evening News during the 2020 U.S. Election Campaign International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-08-19 Kathleen Beckers
After news media and pollsters were unsuccessful in predicting recent political outcomes such as the 2016 U.S. election, opinion polls came under scrutiny. Journalists were accused of not providing audiences the tools to correctly interpret poll information. Using a content analysis of all evening news items from CBS, ABC, and NBC from the final two months before the 2020 U.S. general election, we
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Knowledge Acquisition in Times of the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic: Evidence from a Four-Wave Panel Study International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-08-11 Alyt Damstra, Michael Hameleers
This paper focuses on the accuracy of COVID-19-related knowledge during the 2020 pandemic. We look at the effects of traditional vs. digital news use and distinguish between positive (number of recoveries) and negative (number of casualties) knowledge. Importantly, the moderating role of crisis context is examined when tracing media effects on knowledge. Relying on a four-wave panel survey fielded
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The Negative Influence of Individual Socio-Economic Problems on Political Knowledge International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-08-10 Sebastian Jungkunz, Paul Marx
This article addresses hitherto overlooked factors that might contribute to lower political knowledge among citizens with socio-economic problems. Based on findings in psychology and behavioral economics, we argue that economic worries undermine the motivation and cognitive resources to acquire knowledge. The argument is tested in a representative online survey and an experiment during the 2020 COVID-19
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Visual Portrayals of People in Need: The Impact of Refugee Depictions, Compassion, and Support for Humanitarian Aid International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-08-06 Delia Dumitrescu, Erik P Bucy
As conflicts flare around the world, images of refugees have become a familiar presence in Western media. Drawing on existing accounts of visual influence, this analysis explores how (un)sympathetic refugee portrayals in news accounts affect distant viewers’ compassion responses and refugee policy attitudes. The study reports the results of three survey experiments, in Sweden, the United States, and
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Populist Words Speak Louder? Ideology-Inconsistent Personalization and Voting for Populist Candidates International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-06-28 Müller P, Denner N.
AbstractThe private background of populist politicians oftentimes seemingly contradicts the populist ideology—which can be taken up in political communication. Using two experiments (nStudy 1 = 734; nStudy 2 = 568), we investigate the effects of such ideology-inconsistent personalization on the evaluation of and voting for a populist candidate. We manipulate the politician’s localness and social class
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Affective Polarization in Political and Nonpolitical Settings International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 Thomas J Rudolph, Marc J Hetherington
We seek to understand the extent to which affective polarization is driven by in-group love or out-group hate and whether it varies across context. The answer may, in turn, allow us to evaluate how well the fundamental premises of social identity theory mesh with different manifestations of affective polarization. Using an experiment to analyze partisans’ trust judgments, we find that the amount of
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Russian News Media, Digital Media, Informational Learned Helplessness, and Belief in COVID-19 Misinformation International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-05-13 Erik C Nisbet, Olga Kamenchuk
The COVID-19 pandemic has been paired with a global misinformation “infodemic.” Citizens in authoritarian countries, where most media is state controlled, often do not have access to credible information sources to help combat misinformation. In fact, the news media in these countries may be the primary drivers of misinformation while digital media may be sources of more accurate information. We test
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A Technocratic View of Election Forecasting: Weighting Citizens’ Forecasts according to Competence International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-05-10 Philippe Mongrain
According to the “wisdom of crowds” (WOC) principle, “under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them. […] Even if most of the people within a group are not especially well-informed or rational, it can still reach a collectively wise decision” (Surowiecki, 2004, pp. xiii–xiv). The benefits of collective judgment have already been
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Gender-of-Interviewer Effects in Self-Reported Gender Ideologies: Evidence Based on Interviewer Change in a Panel Survey International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-04-26
International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edaa017
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How Internet Access Drives Global Vaccine Skepticism International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-04-20 Kristin Lunz Trujillo, Matthew Motta
Counterintuitively, wealthier countries tend to be more vaccine skeptical than poorer countries. One possible explanation—the Online Accessibility hypothesis—posits that internet access facilitates the spread of antivaccine misinformation, particularly for those lower in scientific and medical expert trust. Another explanation—the Out of Sight hypothesis—is that some citizens in richer countries fail
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Free and Fair? The Differential Experiences of Voting Barriers and Voting Policies in American Midterm Elections International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-04-02 Jordan M Foley, Michael W Wagner, Ceri Hughes, Jiyoun Suk, Katherine J Cramer, Lewis A Friedland, Dhavan V Shah
In this research note, we provide evidence about burdens people face when voting and who benefits from policies designed to mitigate those burdens. Using pre-and-post 2018 midterm elections panel surveys in Wisconsin, we show that Black voters estimate greater time getting to the polls and Hispanic voters report longer wait times once they are there. Regarding who takes advantage of policies purported
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The Impact of Confidentiality Assurances on Participants’ Responses to Sensitive Questions International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-03-25 Leon C, Aizpurua E, van der Valk S.
Department of Public and Business LawUniversity of Castilla-La Mancha10.13039/501100007480
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How Do Campaigns Matter? Independents, Political Information, and the Enlightening Role of Campaigns in Mexico International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-03-23 Castro Cornejo R.
AbstractBased on the Mexican case, this study finds that voters who report low levels of campaign information are more likely to update their vote intention as election day gets closer. Moreover, in contrast to previous studies which argue that political campaigns mainly persuade voters to support candidates against their precampaign dispositions, this article shows that, by the end of the campaign
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Revisiting the Emotion–Risk Interaction: Do Anger and Fear Moderate the Impact of Risk on Public Support for War? International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-03-16 Sakstrup C, Hansen K.
AbstractA key claim in the study of emotions is that anger makes people less responsive to risks, whereas fear makes people more responsive. Although risk is a fundamental concern in the area of military conflict, no studies have directly tested whether anger and fear moderate the impact of risk on public support for war. We test this key claim with casualty risks as our case. Across five experiments
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The Effects of Populist Identity Framing on Populist Attitudes Across Europe: Evidence From a 15-Country Comparative Experiment International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-03-13 Michael Hameleers, Desirée Schmuck, Anne Schulz, Dominique Stefanie Wirz, Jörg Matthes, Linda Bos, Nicoleta Corbu, Ioannis Andreadis
We investigate the effects of populist messages that (a) stress the centrality of “ordinary” people, (b) shift blame to the “corrupt” elites, or (c) combine people centrality and antielitist cues on 3 dimensions of populist attitudes: anti-elitism, homogeneous people, and popular sovereignty. We conducted an extensive 15-country experiment in which we manipulated populist communication as social identity
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Monetary Incentives in Large-Scale Face-to-Face Surveys: Evidence from a Series of Experiments International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-03-05 Michael Blohm, Achim Koch
Monetary respondent incentives are a means to counteract the trend toward declining response rates. This article summarizes the results of a series of experiments conducted in the past decade in the German General Social Survey. We found that prepaid monetary incentives led to a higher increase in response than promised incentives. There was no evidence that either promised or prepaid incentives had
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Political Trust in East and Southeast Asia: The Joint Effects of Education, Corruption Perception, and Urbanization International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-02-26 Anli Jiang, Tony Huiquan Zhang
This article examines how education, corruption perception, and urbanization jointly influence political trust in Asia. Previous literature proposes a “performance-based evaluation” thesis whereby corruption perception is associated with political trust. We hypothesized this association could be moderated by individual educational attainment and socioeconomic statuses. Applying multilevel models to
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Mind The Gap! The Role of Political Identity and Attitudes in the Emergence of Belief Gaps International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-02-24 Magdalena Saldaña, Shannon McGregor, Tom Johnson
To more fully understand the belief gap hypothesis, this study examines the effect of political identity, education, and partisan media consumption on the formation of attitudes and false beliefs. Using a two-wave, nationally representative online survey of the U.S., we assess people’s attitudes and beliefs toward climate change, on the one hand, and Syrian refugees, on the other. Building on previous
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Risk aversion and strategic voting International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-02-19 Danielle Martin
Numerous studies investigate how personality traits and individual characteristics influence vote choice. However, the effect of risk attitudes on the proclivity to cast a strategic vote has not been tested yet. This article tests whether the likelihood of defecting from one’s preferred party is influenced by attitudes towards risk. I argue that the utility stemming from expressing a preference by
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Polling in New Democracies and Electoral Malpractice: The Case of Brazil International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-02-17 Ryan Lloyd, Mathieu Turgeon
In many developing democracies, polling often comes with elevated levels of bias and variance. We argue that electoral malpractice can be one reason why. We build a theory and test it with data from elections between 2002 and 2014 in Brazil. We find that polling errors are larger in: (a) elections with many undecided voters and large imbalances in financial resources among campaigns; (b) the poorer
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The Different Faces of Public Opinion: Is the American Voter Tinted by Mode? International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-02-01 Enrijeta Shino, Michael D Martinez
Declining response rates and increasing costs of collecting public opinion survey data have led to an increasing usage of dual-mode surveys. Revisiting foundational theories of political knowledge, issue constraint, and issue voting, we gauge the theoretical implications this methodological change has in our understanding of the public opinion and voter behavior. We see different patterns in the 2012
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Not All Terror Is Alike: How Right-Wing Extremist and Islamist Terror Threat Affect Anti-immigration Party Support International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-01-23 Jacobs L, van Spanje J.
AbstractTerror threat has been theorized to affect political attitudes. Most prior studies have focused exclusively on Islamist terror threat, while effects of right-wing extremist terrorism on voting behavior have been understudied. We argue that effects on the propensity to vote (PTV) for an anti-immigration party (AIP) depend on the type of threat and is moderated by right-wing authoritarianism
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Measuring public support for distributive justice principles: assessing the measurement quality of the Basic Social Justice Orientations scale International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-01-17 Van Hootegem A, Meuleman B, Abts K.
National Science Foundation10.13039/10000000111H2619N
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Do Interviewers Affect Measures of Factual Political Knowledge? Evidence from Austria and Germany International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-01-14 David Johann, Sabrina J Mayer
This study examines how interviewers’ gender and education affect the measured level of factual political knowledge by drawing on competing theoretical frameworks: stereotype threat theory and interviewer noncompliance with the instructions. Testing these mechanisms using survey data from the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) and the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we find no evidence
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Complementary and competitive framing of driverless cars: framing effects, attitude volatility, or attitude resistance? International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-01-13 Shirley S Ho
This study answers two research questions regarding framing theory. First, what happens when frames are challenged? Second, how resistant are the opinions that initial frames induce? 1,006 participants completed an online experiment where they were randomly assigned to first view a blog post with either complementary or competitive framing on driverless cars. Participants also viewed a blog post that
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Apportioning Uncertain Voters in Pre-Election Polls in a Multi-Party System International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-01-09 Pilnacek M, Tabery P, Prokop D, et al.
European Structural and Investments FundsOperational Program Research, Development and EducationCZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_013/0001796
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Understanding economic and cultural underpinnings of anti-immigrant attitudes: multilevel evidence from the Asian Barometer Survey Wave IV (2014–2016) International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2021-01-05 Harris Hyun-Soo Kim, Hyun Jin Kim
A large body of research exists concerning determinants of public opinion on immigration and immigrants, primarily based on Western countries. Given that South–South migratory flows have increased dramatically in recent decades, we contribute to the literature by analyzing cross-national probability data in the Asian context. Using multilevel modeling, we derive and test economic and cultural hypotheses
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Projection Effects and the Role of Political Ambiguity International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-30 Danielle Martin, Susan Banducci, Daniel Stevens, Travis Coan
Scholars studying political perceptions find evidence of the presence of projection effects. Yet several questions still need to be explored as to the time frame of the effect and the factors affecting projection. In particular, although the effect of ambiguity on projection has often been assumed and has been tested in a formal model (Jensen, 2009), no empirical evidence supports the idea that ambiguity
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The Interplay of Online Network Homogeneity, Populist Attitudes, and Conspiratorial Beliefs: Empirical Evidence From a Survey on German Facebook Users International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-29 Manuel Cargnino
Social networking sites are suspected to impede the communication between members of different political camps and thereby increase network homogeneity. This homogeneity can be a result of humans’ tendency to process information in confirmatory ways—a characteristic which is also ascribed to populist citizens and those who hold conspiratorial beliefs. It is hypothesized that populist views and conspiratorial
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Repeatedly Measuring Political Interest: Can we Reduce Respondent’ Recall Ability and Memory Effects in Surveys Using Memory Interference Tasks? International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-21 Melanie Revilla, Jan Karem Höhne
It is common practice in behavioral and social sciences to repeat questions, such as in pretest–posttest designs. However, if respondents recall their first answer to a repeated question and use it to decide their second answer, this may cause memory effects, affecting empirical findings. So far, only a few studies have investigated respondents’ recall ability and memory effects in surveys. Thus, we
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Does Issue Importance Predict Learning About Candidates? International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-14 Robison J.
AbstractA long-standing argument is that policy voting is more likely on issues the voter considers subjectively important. However, existing evidence is highly mixed. We leverage panel data from the 2008–2009 ANES Panel to investigate the relationship between subjective issue importance and a key mechanism thought to link it and policy voting: candidate knowledge. Using both lagged dependent variable
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Learning about Politics from Mass Media and Social Media: Moderating Roles of Press Freedom and Public Service Broadcasting in 11 Countries International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-11 Chang Sup Park, Homero Gil de Zúñiga
To examine whether mass media and social media relate to political knowledge, the study draws upon an original survey of adults from 11 countries, the 2014 CESifo DICE Report on public service broadcasting, and the 2015 Press Freedom Index by Freedom House. Findings reveal that news use via television, newspapers, online news sites, and social media is positively associated with political knowledge
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Assimilating Unidimensional and Multidimensional Models of Political Values International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 Michael Babula, Glenn Muschert
Michael Babula is an Assistant Professor in Psychology in the Department of Humanities & Social Sciences at Khalifa University. He holds a Ph.D. in Politics and Psychology (dual degree) from Goldsmiths, University of London. Glenn Muschert is Professor of Sociology in the Department of Humanities & Social Sciences at Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi. He holds a Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of
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Bringing people closer to the elites: the effect of information on populist attitudes International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 Davide Morisi, Markus Wagner
ACIER – Austrian Cooperative Infrastructure for Electoral Research financed by the Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW) [Scheme: Hochschulraum-Strukturmittel 2016
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The SciPop Scale for Measuring Science-Related Populist Attitudes in Surveys: Development, Test, and Validation International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 Niels G. Mede, Mike S. Schäfer, Tobias Füchslin
Populism typically pits political elites against “the virtuous people.” A distinct variant of populism (“science-related populism”) extends beyond politics, targeting academic elites and suggesting they ignore people’s common sense and will. Individual endorsement of such a worldview (“science-related populist attitudes”) has been conceptualized but not yet measured. Hence, we developed the SciPop
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A Tale of Two Countries: The Effectiveness of List Experiments to Measure Drug Consumption in Opposite Contexts International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 Miguel García-Sánchez, Rosario Queirolo
The utility of list experiments in overcoming social desirability bias in surveys may be conditioned on social contexts. Sensitive issues in some countries may be less delicate in others, as with the case of drug use. We test this argument using a list experiment to measure marijuana use in two countries that differ in terms of social progressiveness: Colombia and Uruguay. Using nationally representative
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Teflon Trump? Shifting Public Perceptions of Donald Trump’s Personality Traits across Four Studies over 18 Months International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 Alessandro Nai, Jürgen Maier
Democrats and Republicans have divergent views about Trump’s personality. Are these perceptions stable over time? We describe the evolution of Trump’s perceived personality (Big Five and Dark Triad) between November 2018 and May 2020 by comparing four samples of American respondents (Mechanical Turk). Trump’s perceived personality is on average extremely stable. Liberals have a much more critical perception
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Migrants’ and Natives’ Attitudes toward Public Healthcare Provision in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands International Journal of Public Opinion Research (IF 1.872) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 Seibel V, Renema J.
AbstractPublic healthcare is still one of the main pillars of European welfare states, despite the increasing number of migrants, we know little about migrants’ attitudes toward healthcare. We used recent data from the MIFARE survey and compared natives with a variety of nine migrant groups living in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands, focusing on migrants’ preferred level of governmental involvement