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  • Giving legs to handprint thinking: foundations for evaluating the good we do
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-23
    Joseph H.A. Guillaume; Suvi Sojamo; Miina Porkka; Dieter Gerten; Mika Jalava; Leena Lankoski; Elina Lehikoinen; Michael Lettenmeier; Stephan Pfister; Kirsi Usva; Yoshihide Wada; Matti Kummu

    In environmental management and sustainability there is an increasing interest in measurement and accounting of beneficial impact – as an incentive to action, as a communication tool, and to move towards a positive, constructive approach focused on opportunities rather than problems. One approach uses the metaphor of a “handprint”, complementing the notion of environmental footprints, which have been

  • Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-23
    Fulden Batibeniz; Moetasim Ashfaq; Noah S. Diffenbaugh; Kesondra Key; Katherine J. Evans; Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu; Barış Önol

    We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response

  • Tackling the trickle: ensuring sustainable water management in the Arab region
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-20
    Edoardo Borgomeo; Nadia Al‐Mudaffar Fawzi; Jim W. Hall; Anders Jägerskog; Alan Nicol; Claudia W. Sadoff; Maher Salman; Nuno Santos; Michael Talhami

    Water scarcity in the Arab region is intensifying due to population growth, economic development and the impacts of climate change. It is manifest in groundwater depletion, freshwater ecosystem degradation, deteriorating water quality, low levels of water storage per capita and added pressures on transboundary water resources. High‐income Arab countries have sought to circumvent the ever‐present challenges

  • Impacts of potential China's environmental protection tax reforms on provincial air pollution emissions and economy
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-18
    Xiurong Hu; Junfeng Liu; Haozhe Yang; Jing Meng; Xuejun Wang; Jianmin Ma; Shu Tao

    China's environmental protection tax (EPT) has been implemented since the beginning of 2018 to control environmental issues (e.g., air pollution). The current EPT law indicates that tax revenues are given to provincial governments without return. However, tax revenue redistribution is the key to achieving a so‐called “double dividend”; that is, an environmental tax could benefit both the environment

  • Similarities and Differences in the Mechanisms Causing the European Summer Heatwaves in 2003, 2010, and 2018
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-14
    Xuebang Liu; Bin He; Lanlan Guo; Ling Huang; Deliang Chen

    The mechanisms causing European heatwaves in recent years, particularly their differences among several heatwaves, are poorly understood. Here, atmospheric circulation anomalies and soil moisture‐temperature coupling during the summer 2018 heatwave are comprehensively examined and compared with the 2003 and 2010 heatwaves using ERA5 reanalysis, model simulations and eddy covariance flux measurements

  • In water‐limited landscapes, an Anthropocene exchange: Trading lakes for irrigated agriculture
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-12
    Michael L. Wine; Jonathan B. Laronne

    Lakes—quintessential features of Earth's surface prized from perspectives of water security, aquatic ecosystems, and recreation alike—are shrinking in water‐limited regions of all of Earth's inhabited continents. Here we assessed Landsat‐derived long‐term decrease in global lake area relative to historical lake extent aiming to determine the role of recent Anthropocene levels of irrigated agriculture

  • California Central Valley groundwater wells run dry during recent drought
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-02-27
    Scott Jasechko; Debra Perrone

    Declining water tables are causing wells to run dry in California, but the prevalence and spatial distribution of wells that have run dry is not known beyond anecdotal and voluntary reports. Here, we apply a new, simple and measurement‐driven method to calculate a localized water table; we show, for the first time using observations, that up to one‐in‐five wells now runs dry in California's Central

  • They Came From The Pacific: How changing Arctic currents could contribute to an ecological regime shift in the Atlantic Ocean
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-02-05
    S.J. Kelly; E. Popova; Y. Aksenov; R. Marsh; A. Yool

    The Arctic Ocean is rapidly changing. With warming waters, receding sea ice and changing circulation patterns, it has been hypothesized that previously closed ecological pathways between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans will be opened as we move towards a seasonally ice‐free Arctic. The discovery of Pacific diatom Neodenticula seminae in the Atlantic suggests that a tipping point may have already been

  • Global change can make coastal eutrophication control in China more difficult
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-01-30
    Mengru Wang; Carolien Kroeze; Maryna Strokal; Michelle T.H. van Vliet; Lin Ma

    Fast socio‐economic development in agriculture and urbanization resulted in increasing nutrient export by rivers, causing coastal eutrophication in China. In addition, climate change may affect hydrology, and as a result nutrient flows from land to sea. This study aims at a better understanding of how future socio‐economic and climatic changes may affect coastal eutrophication in China. We modeled

  • Thank You Earth's Future Reviewers in 2019
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-15
    Ben van der Pluijm; Amir AghaKouchak; Michael Ellis; Nancy Grimm; Hong Liao; Céline H. Mari; Patricia Romero‐Lankao

    AGU's open‐access transdisciplinary science journal Earth's Future continued to grow in size and stature in 2019, with ~40% acceptance rate for ~280 new submissions that were evaluated by a similar number of external reviewers; their names are listed here.

  • Too Big to Ignore: Global Risk Perception Gaps Between Scientists and Business Leaders
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-20
    Matthias Garschagen; Sylvia L. R. Wood; Jennifer Garard; Maria Ivanova; Amy Luers

    Two major reports assessing global systemic risks have been published recently, presenting large‐scale panel data on the risk perceptions of different key communities, most notably business leaders and global change scientists. While both of these global communities agree on ranking environmental risks the highest, followed by societal, geopolitical, technological, and economic risks, business leaders

  • China's Food Supply Sources Under Trade Conflict With the United States and Limited Domestic Land and Water Resources
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-22
    Wenfeng Liu; Hong Yang; Philippe Ciais; Matti Kummu; Arjen Y. Hoekstra

    The U.S.‐China trade conflict has already considerably reshaped China's food imports, and should the conflict continue, it might have substantial impacts on global food supply dynamics as well as China's food supply sources. We address these implications by analyzing recent trends in China's food imports and associated use of land and water resources. We show that China's limited land and water availability

  • Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-02-26
    Marleen C. de Ruiter; Anaïs Couasnon; Marc J. C. van den Homberg; James E. Daniell; Joel C. Gill; Philip J. Ward

    In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of

  • The Role of Urban Growth in Resilience of Communities Under Flood Risk
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-20
    Mona Hemmati; Bruce R. Ellingwood; Hussam N. Mahmoud

    Flood risk to urban communities is increasing significantly as a result of the integrated effects of climate change and socioeconomic development. The latter effect is one of the main drivers of rising flood risk has received less attention in comparison to climate change. Economic development and population growth are major causes of urban expansion in flood‐prone areas, and a comprehensive understanding

  • Response of Extreme Rainfall for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition to Projected Climate Change: Hurricane Irene (2011)
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-03
    M. Liu; L. Yang; J. A. Smith; G. A. Vecchi

    Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have large societal impacts, both in fatalities and economic losses. This study examines the response of TC rainfall to climate change projected under future anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, focusing on Hurricane Irene, which produced severe flooding across the Northeastern United States in August 2011. Numerical simulations

  • A Flood Damage Allowance Framework for Coastal Protection With Deep Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-10
    D. J. Rasmussen; Maya K. Buchanan; Robert E. Kopp; Michael Oppenheimer

    Deep uncertainty describes situations when there is either ignorance or disagreement over (1) models used to describe key system processes and (2) probability distributions used to characterize the uncertainty of key variables and parameters. Future projections of Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss remain characterized by deep uncertainty. This complicates decisions on long‐lived coastal protection

  • Riverine Flooding and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over China
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-02-28
    Long Yang; Gabriele Villarini; Zhenzhong Zeng; James Smith; Maofeng Liu; Xiang Li; Lachun Wang; Aizhong Hou

    Riverine flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific basin is responsible for some of the most severe socioeconomic losses in East Asian countries. However, little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of TC flooding and its climate controls, which constrain the predictive understandings of flood risk in this highly populated region. We provide

  • Global Wetting by Seasonal Surface Water Over the Last Decades
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-09
    Sonia Borja; Zahra Kalantari; Georgia Destouni

    Surface water bodies and their changes in the landscape are critical for societies and ecosystems. However, the global change in surface water area over the last decades remains unclear, as recent studies using the same satellite data disagree on its direction. Here, we reanalyze reported maps of global water classification based on that data in order to estimate the changes in long‐term average surface

  • Linking Agricultural GHG Emissions to Global Trade Network
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-12
    Xueli Zhao; Xiaofang Wu; ChengHe Guan; Rong Ma; Chris P. Nielsen; Bo Zhang

    As part of the climate policy to meet the 2 °C target, actions in all economic sectors, including agriculture, are required to mitigate global greenhouse gas emissions. While there has been an ever‐increasing focus on agricultural greenhouse gas (AGHG) emissions, limited attention has been paid to their economic drivers in the globalized world economy and related mitigation potentials. This paper makes

  • Applying Tipping Point Theory to Remote Sensing Science to Improve Early Warning Drought Signals for Food Security
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-20
    P. Krishna Krishnamurthy R; Joshua B. Fisher; David S. Schimel; Peter M. Kareiva

    Famines have long been associated with drought. With the severity of droughts growing in association with climate change, there is increasing pressure to do a better job predicting famines and delivering international aid to avert human suffering and civil instability. We examine recent advances in remote sensing technology, focusing on the latency, historical availability and spatial and temporal

  • Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-20
    M. Bedinger; L. Beevers; G. H. Walker; A. Visser‐Quinn; K. McClymont

    This paper argues that urban systems issues are design problems on a grand scale and that various disciplines aiming to address them can have only a partial view of the problem. It is necessary to draw boundaries around the detailed analyses of specific issues, but a way to map the wider system, to contextualize and more deeply understand how they are interrelated, is still lacking. Four complexity

  • Increased Transnational Sea Ice Transport Between Neighboring Arctic States in the 21st Century
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-22
    Patricia DeRepentigny; Alexandra Jahn; L. Bruno Tremblay; Robert Newton; Stephanie Pfirman

    The Arctic is undergoing a rapid transition toward a seasonal ice regime, with widespread implications for the polar ecosystem, human activities, as well as the global climate. Here we focus on how the changing ice cover impacts transborder exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones of the Arctic states. We use the Sea Ice Tracking Utility, which follows ice floes from formation to melt

  • What Will the Weather Do? Forecasting Flood Losses Based on Oscillation Indices
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2020-03-20
    Gabriela Guimarães Nobre; Hans de Moel; Matteo Giuliani; Konstantinos Bischiniotis; Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts; Philip J. Ward

    Atmospheric oscillations are known to drive the large‐scale variability of hydrometeorological extremes in Europe, which can trigger flood events and losses. However, to date there are no studies that have assessed the combined influence of different large‐scale atmospheric oscillations on the probabilities of flood losses occurring. Therefore, in this study we examine the relationship between five

  • Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea-Level Rise.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-12-04
    Robert E Kopp,Elisabeth A Gilmore,Christopher M Little,Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba,Victoria C Ramenzoni,William V Sweet

    Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems

  • Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human-Induced Climate Change.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-10-11
    M M Vogel,J Zscheischler,R Wartenburger,D Dee,S I Seneviratne

    Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human-induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring-to-summer season

  • Detection of Fossil and Biogenic Methane at Regional Scales Using Atmospheric Radiocarbon.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-06-21
    H Graven,T Hocking,G Zazzeri

    Regional emissions of methane and their attribution to a variety of sources presently have large uncertainties. Measurements of radiocarbon (14C) in methane (CH4) may provide a method for identifying regional CH4 emissions from fossil versus biogenic sources because adding 14C-free fossil carbon reduces the 14C/C ratio (Δ14CH4) in atmospheric CH4 much more than biogenic carbon does. We describe an

  • A Global Assessment of Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Increase Due to Surface Water Area Change.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-05-10
    Shengan Zhan,Chunqiao Song,Jida Wang,Yongwei Sheng,Jiping Quan

    Surface water, which is changing constantly, is a crucial component in the global water cycle, as it greatly affects the water flux between the land and the atmosphere through evaporation. However, the influences of changing surface water area on the global water budget have largely been neglected. Here we estimate an extra water flux of 30.38 ± 15.51 km3/year omitted in global evaporation calculation

  • Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-04-30
    C Wobus,C Zarakas,P Malek,B Sanderson,A Crimmins,M Kolian,M Sarofim,C P Weaver

    The goal of this study is to reframe the analysis and discussion of extreme heat projections to improve communication of future extreme heat risks in the United States. We combine existing data from 31 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to examine future exposure to extreme heat for global average temperatures of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C above a preindustrial baseline. We find that

  • Quantifying the Sustainability of Water Availability for the Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus in the Niger River Basin.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-04-30
    Jie Yang,Y C Ethan Yang,Hassaan F Khan,Hua Xie,Claudia Ringler,Andrew Ogilvie,Ousmane Seidou,Abdouramane Gado Djibo,Frank van Weert,Rebecca Tharme

    Water, food, energy, and the ecosystems they depend on interact with each other in highly complex and interlinked ways. These interdependencies can be traced particularly well in the context of a river basin, which is delineated by hydrological boundaries. The interactions are shaped by humans interacting with nature, and as such, a river basin can be characterized as a complex, coupled socioecological

  • Spatial Patterns of Crop Yield Change by Emitted Pollutant.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-04-23
    Drew Shindell,Greg Faluvegi,Prasad Kasibhatla,Rita Van Dingenen

    Field measurements and modeling have examined how temperature, precipitation, and exposure to carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone affect major staple crops around the world. Most prior studies, however, have incorporated only a subset of these influences. Here we examine how emissions of each individual pollutant driving changes in these four factors affect present-day yields of wheat, maize (corn), and

  • Environmental Conditions, Ignition Type, and Air Quality Impacts of Wildfires in the Southeastern and Western United States.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-04-23
    Steven J Brey,Elizabeth A Barnes,Jeffrey R Pierce,Christine Wiedinmyer,Emily V Fischer

    This research contrasts the environmental conditions, meteorological drivers, and air quality impacts of human- and lightning-ignited wildfires in the southeastern and western United States, the two continental U.S. regions with the most wildfire burn area. We use the Fire Program Analysis Wildfire Occurrence Data (FPA FOD) to determine wildfire abundance and ignition sources between 1992 and 2015

  • Projecting Changes in Expected Annual Damages From Riverine Flooding in the United States.
    Earths Future (IF 5.781) Pub Date : 2019-04-08
    C Wobus,P Zheng,J Stein,C Lay,H Mahoney,M Lorie,D Mills,R Spies,B Szafranski,J Martinich

    Inland flood risk in the United States is most often conveyed through maps of 1% annual exceedance probability (AEP) or "100-year" floodplains. However, monetary damages from flooding arise from a full distribution of events, including floods both larger and smaller than the 1% AEP event. Furthermore, floodplains are not static, since both the frequency and magnitude of flooding are likely to change

  • California's Drought of the Future: A Midcentury Recreation of the Exceptional Conditions of 2012-2017.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-01-29
    P A Ullrich,Z Xu,A M Rhoades,M D Dettinger,J F Mount,A D Jones,P Vahmani

    The California drought of 2012-2016 was a record-breaking event with extensive social, political, and economic repercussions. The impacts were widespread and exposed the difficulty in preparing for the effects of prolonged dry conditions. Although the lessons from this drought drove important changes to state law and policy, there is little doubt that climate change will only exacerbate future droughts

  • A world of co-benefits: Solving the global nitrogen challenge.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2019-01-01
    Benjamin Z Houlton,Maya Almaraz,Viney Aneja,Amy T Austin,Edith Bai,Kenneth G Cassman,Jana E Compton,Eric A Davidson,Jan Willem Erisman,James N Galloway,Baojing Gu,Guolin Yao,Luiz A Martinelli,Kate Scow,William H Schlesinger,Thomas P Tomich,Chao Wang,Xin Zhang

    Nitrogen is a critical component of the economy, food security, and planetary health. Many of the world's sustainability targets hinge on global nitrogen solutions, which, in turn, contribute lasting benefits for: (i) world hunger; (ii) soil, air and water quality; (iii) climate change mitigation; and (iv) biodiversity conservation. Balancing the projected rise in agricultural nitrogen demands while

  • Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2018-06-26
    Annette L Hirsch,Benoit P Guillod,Sonia I Seneviratne,Urs Beyerle,Lena R Boysen,Victor Brovkin,Edouard L Davin,Jonathan C Doelman,Hyungjun Kim,Daniel M Mitchell,Tomoko Nitta,Hideo Shiogama,Sarah Sparrow,Elke Stehfest,Detlef P van Vuuren,Simon Wilson

    The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the

  • Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2018-06-26
    Juraj Balkovič,Rastislav Skalský,Christian Folberth,Nikolay Khabarov,Erwin Schmid,Mikuláš Madaras,Michael Obersteiner,Marijn van der Velde

    Even if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from 10 major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modeling. The Environmental Policy

  • Satellite-based assessment of rainfall-triggered landslide hazard for situational awareness.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2018-03-22
    Dalia Kirschbaum,Thomas Stanley

    Determining the time, location, and severity of natural disaster impacts is fundamental to formulating mitigation strategies, appropriate and timely responses, and robust recovery plans. A Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed to indicate potential landslide activity in near real-time. LHASA combines satellite-based precipitation estimates with a landslide

  • Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2018-03-16
    Simon Michael Papalexiou,Amir AghaKouchak,Kevin E Trenberth,Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

    Trends in short-lived high-temperature extremes record a different dimension of change than the extensively studied annual and seasonal mean daily temperatures. They also have important socioeconomic, environmental, and human health implications. Here, we present analysis of the highest temperature of the year for approximately 9000 stations globally, focusing on quantifying spatially explicit exceedance

  • Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2017-10-11
    Yan Sun,Shushi Peng,Daniel S Goll,Philippe Ciais,Bertrand Guenet,Matthieu Guimberteau,Philippe Hinsinger,Ivan A Janssens,Josep Peñuelas,Shilong Piao,Benjamin Poulter,Aurélie Violette,Xiaojuan Yang,Yi Yin,Hui Zeng

    Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation

  • Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2017-10-11
    Elodie Blanc,Justin Caron,Charles Fant,Erwan Monier

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking

  • Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2017-06-01
    Katja Frieler,Bernhard Schauberger,Almut Arneth,Juraj Balkovic,James Chryssanthacopoulos,Delphine Deryng,Joshua Elliott,Christian Folberth,Nikolay Khabarov,Christoph Müller,Stefan Olin,Thomas A M Pugh,Sibyll Schaphoff,Jacob Schewe,Erwin Schmid,Lila Warszawski,Anders Levermann

    Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced

  • Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2017-06-01
    Junguo Liu,Hong Yang,Simon N Gosling,Matti Kummu,Martina Flörke,Stephan Pfister,Naota Hanasaki,Yoshihide Wada,Xinxin Zhang,Chunmiao Zheng,Joseph Alcamo,Taikan Oki

    Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability and water use are

  • Contributions of organic and inorganic matter to sediment volume and accretion in tidal wetlands at steady state.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2016-11-08
    James T Morris,Donald C Barber,John C Callaway,Randy Chambers,Scott C Hagen,Charles S Hopkinson,Beverly J Johnson,Patrick Megonigal,Scott C Neubauer,Tiffany Troxler,Cathleen Wigand

    A mixing model derived from first principles describes the bulk density (BD) of intertidal wetland sediments as a function of loss on ignition (LOI). The model assumes that the bulk volume of sediment equates to the sum of self-packing volumes of organic and mineral components or BD = 1/[LOI/k1 + (1-LOI)/k2], where k1 and k2 are the self-packing densities of the pure organic and inorganic components

  • Prospects for narrowing bounds on Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2016-11-01
    Bjorn Stevens,Steven C Sherwood,Sandrine Bony,Mark J Webb

    The concept of Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is reviewed. A particular problem in quantifying plausible bounds for ECS has been how to account for all of the diverse lines of relevant scientific evidence. It is argued that developing and refuting physical storylines (hypotheses) for values outside any proposed range has the potential to better constrain these bounds and to help articulate

  • The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2016-11-01
    Xiao-Hai Yan,Tim Boyer,Kevin Trenberth,Thomas R Karl,Shang-Ping Xie,Veronica Nieves,Ka-Kit Tung,Dean Roemmich

    Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are

  • Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2016-06-01
    Cameron Wobus,Mark Flanner,Marcus C Sarofim,Maria Cecilia P Moura,Steven J Smith

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols-specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate-depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature

  • The need for accurate long-term measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with global coverage.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2016-02-01
    Rolf Müller,Anne Kunz,Dale F Hurst,Christian Rolf,Martina Krämer,Martin Riese

    Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere although changes in carbon dioxide constitute the "control knob" for surface temperatures. While the latter fact is well recognized, resulting in extensive space-borne and ground-based measurement programs for carbon dioxide as detailed in the studies by Keeling et al. (1996), Kuze et al. (2009), and Liu et al. (2014), the need for

  • Considering thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2015-07-01
    William Colgan,Aleah Sommers,Harihar Rajaram,Waleed Abdalati,Joel Frahm

    We explore potential changes in Greenland ice sheet form and flow associated with increasing ice temperatures and relaxing effective ice viscosities. We define "thermal-viscous collapse" as a transition from the polythermal ice sheet temperature distribution characteristic of the Holocene to temperate ice at the pressure melting point and associated lower viscosities. The conceptual model of thermal-viscous

  • Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services.
    Earths Future Pub Date : 2015-06-01
    Miguel O Román,Eleanor C Stokes

    Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research

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