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  • Improving the use of calibrated language in U.S. climate assessments
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-23
    Allison Crimmins

    The use of calibrated language in climate assessments has evolved over time and is an important tool for better characterizing climate risk. Despite improvements in communication, likelihood and confidence terms continue to be misinterpreted by nontechnical audiences. Public understanding of scientific certainty in climate impacts, particularly at the extreme tails of likelihood distribution, is inadequate

  • Spatially Explicit Inventory of Sources of Nitrogen Inputs to the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea for the Period 1970–2010
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-17
    Junjie Wang; Arthur H. W. Beusen; Xiaochen Liu; Rita Van Dingenen; Frank Dentener; Qingzhen Yao; Bochao Xu; Xiangbin Ran; Zhigang Yu; Alexander F. Bouwman

    Symptoms of eutrophication (including biodiversity loss, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia) are an increasing problem in Chinese seas. Nutrient enrichment is primarily caused by accelerated human activities that cause nutrient pollution of the aquatic environment. In this study, the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment–Global Nutrient Model (IMAGE‐GNM) was used to estimate nitrogen inputs

  • Establishing a Field of Collaboration for Engineers, Scientists, and Community Groups: Incentives, Barriers, and Potential
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-25
    J. L. Boucher; A. M. Levenda; J. Morales‐Guerrero; M. M. Macias; D. M. A. Karwat

    With the aim of mobilizing engineers and scientists to address environmental, climate, and energy justice challenges in the United States, this study examines how engineers and scientists view their incentives, barriers, and potential for community‐based collaborations. Through a purposive convenience sample (n = 281) and an online questionnaire, we investigate the attitudes and experiences of engineers

  • Detectability of Artificial Ocean Alkalinization and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in MPI‐ESM
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-14
    Friederike Fröb; Sebastian Sonntag; Julia Pongratz; Hauke Schmidt; Tatiana Ilyina

    To monitor the success of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) or solar radiation management (SRM) that offset anthropogenic climate change, the forced response to any external forcing is required to be detectable against internal variability. Thus far, only the detectability of SRM has been examined using both a stationary and nonstationary detection and attribution method. Here, the spatiotemporal detectability

  • Responses of Precipitation and Runoff to Climate Warming and Implications for Future Drought Changes in China
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-30
    Lei Gu; Jie Chen; Jiabo Yin; Chong‐Yu Xu; Jianzhong Zhou

    The Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship holds that the atmospheric water vapor content enhances with warming temperatures, suggesting intensifications of precipitable water and also altering runoff generation. Drought conditions are determined by variations in water fluxes such as precipitation and runoff, which tightly connect with temperature scaling characteristics. However, whether and how water fluxes'

  • From Pleistocene to Pyrocene: fire replaces ice
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-17
    S. J. Pyne

    Fire offers a special perspective by which to understand the Earth being remade by humans. Fire is integrative, so intrinsically interdisciplinary. Fire use is unique to humans, so a tracer of humanity's ecological impacts. Anthropogenic fire history shows the long influence of humans on Earth and even climate; in particular, it tracks the continuities between the burning of living landscapes and the

  • Exploring the emission characteristics and reduction potential of air pollutants from Chinese aluminum industry:2005–2025
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-17
    Ke Cheng; Jiayu Zhang; Peng Yi; Guifen Zhu; Weiwei Hao; Wanwan Ji; Hezhong Tian; Yan Wang

    Amidst the rising desire for environmental governance in China, the aluminum industry has aroused more extensive attention because of the intensive energy consumption. Based on the process–based life cycle assessment (PLCA) method, emissions of 9 typical air pollutants (PM, SO2, NOX, VOCs, CO, CO2, fluoride, asphalt fume, and PFCs) by the primary aluminum industry in China over the period 2005–2017

  • Impact of Droughts on Water Supply in U.S. Watersheds: The Role of Renewable Surface and Groundwater Resources
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-12
    Tushar Apurv; Ximing Cai

    We use a simplified water supply system model based on the water availability assessment via the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to analyze water supply droughts (WSDs), which are periods with deficient water supply. The model is applied to 27 representative watersheds of the contiguous U.S. to explore how different management strategies can be more effective in mitigating WSDs

  • Resilience of School Systems Following Severe Earthquakes
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-04
    Emad M. Hassan; Hussam N. Mahmoud; Bruce R. Ellingwood

    Natural disasters may have catastrophic and long‐lasting impacts on communities' physical, economic, and social infrastructure. Slow recovery of educational services following such events is likely to cause traumatic stress in children, lead families to out‐migrate, and affect the community's overall social stability. Methods for quantifying and assessing the restoration process of educational systems

  • Legacy Effects from Historical Environmental Changes Dominate Future Terrestrial Carbon Uptake
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-05
    A. Krause; A. Arneth; P. Anthoni; A. Rammig

    Ecosystems continuously adapt to interacting environmental drivers that change over time. Consequently, the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystem may presently still be affected by past anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., deforestation) and other environmental changes (e.g., climate change). However, even though such so‐called “legacy effects” are implicitly included in many carbon cycle modeling studies

  • More Trees Are Dying Due to Drought and Wildfire but Do Not Lose Sight of Forest Pathogens
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-05
    Frank W. Davis

    Accelerated forest dieback has been documented at many locations around the world that have experienced severe drought, warming, and wildfires associated with global climate change. Exotic forest diseases pose a comparably large threat to wild forests. Synthesizing surveillance plot data to parameterize spatial epidemiological models, Cobb et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001500) estimate

  • Projections of Mountain Snowpack Loss for Wolverine Denning Elevations in the Rocky Mountains
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-13
    Joseph J. Barsugli; Andrea J. Ray; Ben Livneh; Candida F. Dewes; Aaron Heldmyer; Imtiaz Rangwala; John M. Guinotte; Stephen Torbit

    Future reduction in mountain snowpack due to anthropogenic climate change poses a threat to many snow‐adapted species worldwide. Mountain topography exerts a strong control on snowpack not only due to elevation but also through the effect of slope and aspect on the surface energy balance. We develop high‐resolution projections of snowpack in order to provide improved, physically based estimates of

  • Implications of CMIP6 Projected Drying Trends for 21st Century Amazonian Drought Risk
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-29
    L. A. Parsons

    Recent exceptionally hot droughts in Amazonia have highlighted the potential role of global warming in driving changes in rainfall and temperatures in the region. The previous generation of global climate models projected that eastern Amazonia would receive less future precipitation while western Amazonia would receive more precipitation, but many of these models disagreed on future precipitation trends

  • Nearly Half of Global Vegetated Area Experienced Inconsistent Vegetation Growth in Terms of Greenness, Cover, and Productivity
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-27
    Z. Ding; J. Peng; S. Qiu; Y. Zhao

    The considerable interest in detecting global vegetation changes based on satellite observations is increasing. However, studies rely on single indices to explore the driving mechanisms of the greening trend might exacerbate uncertainties of global ecosystem change. Thus, vegetation growth dynamics from various biophysical properties required to be monitored comprehensively. In this study, a consistent

  • Rethinking Reef Island Stability in Relation to Anthropogenic Sea Level Rise
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-07
    Haunani H. Kane; Charles H. Fletcher

    Unprecedented rates of anthropogenic sea level rise (ASLR) and attendant wave‐driven flooding and salinization threaten the stability (and habitability) of atoll islands. Thus, there is doubt regarding the continued existence of sovereign atoll nations and unique, place‐based indigenous atoll cultures. Evidence that some atoll islands may have originally formed in the latter stages of post‐glacial

  • Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-07
    D. R. Mandel; T. S. Wallsten; D. V. Budescu

    In a recent issue of Earth's Future [vol. 7, pp. 1020‐1026], S. C. Lewis et al. recommended a numerically bounded linguistic probability (NBLP) scheme for communicating probabilistic information in extreme event attribution studies. We provide a critique of NBLP schemes in general and of Lewis et al.'s in particular, noting two key points. First, evidence from voluminous behavioral science research

  • Prepare Scientists to Engage in Science‐Policy
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-10-07
    Erika von Schneidemesser; Megan Melamed; Julia Schmale

    There is a dire need for deeper science‐policy engagement to face recent developments such as entering into the Anthropocene and our dependence as a species on technological and scientific advancements. However, there is a lack of preparedness and training of scientists about what science‐policy engagement is and how to get involved, with substantial discrepancies globally. We present four gaps and

  • Interacting Infrastructure Disruptions Due to Environmental Events and Long‐Term Climate Change
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-10
    Michelle A. Hummel; Alain Tcheukam Siwe; Aaron Chow; Mark T. Stacey; Samer M. Madanat

    Climate change places additional stress on critical infrastructure systems as demand for resources (e.g., water and electricity) increases and environmental disruptions (e.g., flooding and wildfires) become more frequent and severe. Interconnected infrastructure systems may be particularly vulnerable, as disruptions in one system can cascade to other systems and increase the severity of impacts. To

  • Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-29
    Hadi Heidari; Mazdak Arabi; Travis Warziniack; Shih‐Chieh Kao

    Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21st century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive

  • The Impact on the Ozone Layer of a Potential Fleet of Civil Hypersonic Aircraft
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-12
    Douglas Kinnison; Guy P. Brasseur; Steven L. Baughcum; Jun Zhang; Donald Wuebbles

    The aeronautical community is currently researching technology that might lead to commercial hypersonic aircraft that would cruise at Mach 5–8 in the middle or upper stratosphere and would transfer passengers from London to New York or from Los Angeles to Tokyo in just a couple of hours. Depending on the engine technology to be adopted, these aircraft will potentially release substantial amounts of

  • Quantifying On‐Farm Nitrous Oxide Emission Reductions in Food Supply Chains
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-01
    A. J. Eagle; E. L. McLellan; E. M. Brawner; M. H. Chantigny; E. A. Davidson; J. B. Dickey; B. A. Linquist; T. M. Maaz; D. E. Pelster; C. M. Pittelkow; C. van Kessel; T. J. Vyn; K. G. Cassman

    Reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agriculture is critical to limiting future global warming. In response, a growing number of food retailers and manufacturers have committed to reducing N2O emissions from their vast networks of farmer suppliers by providing technical assistance and financial incentives. A key challenge for such companies is demonstrating that their efforts are leading to

  • The Upper Tail of Precipitation in Convection‐Permitting Regional Climate Models and Their Utility in Nonstationary Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-13
    Guo Yu; Daniel B. Wright; Zhe Li

    Computational advances have made atmospheric modeling at convection‐permitting (≤4 km) grid spacings increasingly feasible. These simulations hold great promise in the projection of climate change impacts including rainfall and flood extremes. The relatively short model runs that are currently feasible, however, inhibit the assessment of the upper tail of rainfall and flood quantiles using conventional

  • Bridging the Gap Between Biofuels and Biodiversity Through Monetizing Environmental Services of Miscanthus Cultivation
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-19
    Moritz Von Cossel; Bastian Winkler; Anja Mangold; Jan Lask; Moritz Wagner; Iris Lewandowski; Berien Elbersen; Michiel van Eupen; Stephan Mantel; Andreas Kiesel

    Carbon neutrality in the transport sector is a key challenge for the growing bioeconomy as the share of biofuels has stagnated over the past decade. This can be attributed to basic economics and a lack of a robust market for these technologies. Consequently, more sustainable biomass supply concepts are required that reduce negative impacts on the environment and at the same time promote environmental

  • Global Spatio‐Temporal Assessment of Changes in Multiple Ecosystem Services Under Four IPCC SRES Land‐use Scenarios
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-02
    S. Sun; Q. Shi

    Social development and technological advancement have led to land use changes, influencing the structure of ecosystem services and severely impacting ecological balance. This study spatially and quantitatively assesses the effects of land‐use changes on ecosystem services based on the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and using the Integrated Valuation

  • Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulations: Trends, Long‐Term Persistence, Autocorrelation, and Distributional Shape
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-10
    Simon Michael Papalexiou; Chandra Rupa Rajulapati; Martyn P. Clark; Flavio Lehner

    Multi‐model climate experiments carried out as part of different phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are crucial to evaluate past and future climate change. The reliability of models' simulations is often gauged by their ability to reproduce the historical climate across many time scales. This study compares the global mean surface air temperature from 29 CMIP6 models with observations

  • The Value of Initial Condition Large Ensembles to Robust Adaptation Decision‐Making
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-10
    Justin S. Mankin; Flavio Lehner; Sloan Coats; Karen A. McKinnon

    The origins of uncertainty in climate projections have major consequences for the scientific and policy decisions made in response to climate change. Internal climate variability, for example, is an inherent uncertainty in the climate system that is undersampled by the multimodel ensembles used in most climate impacts research. Because of this, decision makers are left with the question of whether

  • Can reservoir regulation along the Yellow River be a sustainable way to save a sinking delta?
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-29
    Xiao Wu; Naishuang Bi; Jaia Syvitski; Yoshiki Saito; Jingping Xu; Jeffrey A. Nittrouer; Thomas S. Bianchi; Zuosheng Yang; Houjie Wang

    Today's deltas are impacted negatively by 1) accelerated subsidence (e.g. from ground fluid extraction), 2) global eustatic sea‐level rise, and 3) decreased sediment supply, which increasingly starves these landforms of sediment necessary to sustain their footprint. This growing vulnerability threatens many mega cities that have developed due to the rich resources offered by deltas, and therefore urgently

  • Projected Changes in the Annual Range of Precipitation Under Stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C Warming Futures
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-13
    Ziming Chen; Tianjun Zhou; Wenxia Zhang; Puxi Li; Siyao Zhao

    Changes in hydrological cycle under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming are of great concern on the post‐Paris Agreement agenda. In particular, the annual range of precipitation, that is, the difference between the wet and dry seasons, is important to society and ecosystem. This study examines the changes in precipitation annual range using the Community Earth System Model low‐warming (CESM‐LW) experiment, designed

  • Greater contribution from agricultural sources to future reactive nitrogen deposition in the United States
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-20
    Yilin Chen; Huizhong Shen; Jhih‐Shyang Shih; Armistead G. Russell; Shuai Shao; Yongtao Hu; Mehmet Talat Odman; Athanasios Nenes; Gertrude K. Pavur; Yufei Zou; Zhihong Chen; Richard A. Smith; Dallas Burtraw; Charles T. Driscoll

    Many sensitive ecosystems in areas protected for biodiversity conservation in the United States suffer from exposure to excess reactive nitrogen (Nr) released by fossil fuel combustion and agricultural practices and deposited onto the land surface and water bodies. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied over the contiguous United States to link emissions and climate change to

  • Global Modeling of Seasonal Mortality Rates From River Floods
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-07-15
    Lorenzo Alfieri; Francesco Dottori; Peter Salamon; Huan Wu; Luc Feyen

    In spite of their recurrent seasonal patterns, every year river floods affect millions of people and kill thousands. Knowing the average timing and magnitude of floods can help to better prepare for disasters by improving the humanitarian assistance and the management of resources, to ultimately reduce the overall flood impacts. This work presents a physically based modeling framework to estimate population

  • Sea Level Rise Driving Increasingly Predictable Coastal Inundation in Sydney, Australia
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-01
    Ben S. Hague; Shayne McGregor; Bradley F. Murphy; Ruth Reef; David A. Jones

    As global mean sea level continues to rise, thresholds corresponding to coastal inundation impacts are exceeded more frequently. This paper aims to relate sea level rise (SLR) observations and projections to their physical on‐the‐ground impacts. Using a large coastal city as an example, we show that in Sydney, Australia, frequencies of minor coastal inundation have increased from 1.6 to 7.8 days per

  • Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-13
    J. D. Quinn; A. Hadjimichael; P. M. Reed; S. Steinschneider

    Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for ``scenario‐neutral” analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods. Instead, these frameworks use sensitivity analysis to discover which

  • Changes in global and regional characteristics of heat stress waves in the 21st century
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-09-10
    Xi Chen; Ning Li; Jiawei Liu; Zhengtao Zhang; Yuan Liu; Chengfang Huang

    Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a combined measure of temperature and humidity effects on thermal comfort, is used to define heat stress waves (HSWs). While emerging research have raised concerns on future changes in heat stress, for the first time, this study examines spatio‐temporal changes in multiple HSW characteristics (intensity, duration, frequency and cumulative mean intensity) in the 21st

  • Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production: The Regional and Sectoral Economic Consequences in China
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-07-14
    Yuan Liu; Ning Li; Zhengtao Zhang; Chengfang Huang; Xi Chen; Fang Wang

    Climate is an essential element in agricultural production, and climate change inevitably have an impact on agriculture. Assessing the economic consequences of climate change requires comprehensive assessments of the impact chain from climate to crops and the economy. In our previous study, we derived a dose‐response function to estimate the response of crop yields to climate variables through a systematic

  • Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-16
    T. Weber; P. Bowyer; D. Rechid; S. Pfeifer; F. Raffaele; A. R. Remedio; C. Teichmann; D. Jacob

    It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co‐occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co‐occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions

  • Iran's Agriculture in the Anthropocene
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-04
    Mohsen Maghrebi; Roohollah Noori; Rabin Bhattarai; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; Qiuhong Tang; Nadhir Al‐Ansari; Ali Danandeh Mehr; Abdolreza Karbassi; Javad Omidvar; Hossein Farnoush; Ali Torabi Haghighi; Bjørn Kløve; Kaveh Madani

    The anthropogenic impacts of development and frequent droughts have limited Iran's water availability. This has major implications for Iran's agricultural sector which is responsible for about 90% of water consumption at the national scale. This study investigates if declining water availability impacted agriculture in Iran. Using the Mann‐Kendall and Sen's slope estimator methods, we explored the

  • Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-10
    Yujie Liu; Jie Chen; Tao Pan; Yanhua Liu; Yuhu Zhang; Quansheng Ge; Philippe Ciais; Josep Penuelas

    Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986–2005) and future periods (2016–2035 and 2046–2065)

  • Enlarging Regional Disparities in Energy Intensity within China
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-07-17
    Shuai Shao; Chang Wang; Yue Guo; Lili Yang; Shiyi Chen; Jinyue Yan; Yuli Shan; Zhu Liu; Dabo Guan

    As energy saving and emission reduction become a global action, the disparity in energy intensity between different regions is a new rising problem that stems a country's or region's energy‐saving potential. Here we collect China's provincial panel data (1995–2017) of primary and final energy consumption to evaluate China's unequal and polarized regional pattern in energy intensity, decompose the inequality

  • Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-03
    Jie Yin; Sebastiaan Jonkman; Ning Lin; Dapeng Yu; Jeroen Aerts; Robert Wilby; Ming Pan; Eric Wood; Jeremy Bricker; Qian Ke; Zhenzhong Zeng; Qing Zhao; Jianzhong Ge; Jun Wang

    Sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence are expected to increase the risk of flooding and reliance on flood defenses for cities built on deltas. Here, we combine reliability analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effect of projected relative SLR on dike failures and flood hazards for Shanghai, one of the most exposed delta cities. We find that flood inundation is likely to occur in low‐lying

  • A Participatory Science Approach to Expanding Instream Infrastructure Inventories
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-08-16
    Aaron Whittemore; Matthew R. V. Ross; Wayana Dolan; Theodore Langhorst; Xiao Yang; Sayali Pawar; Michiel Jorissen; Eric Lawton; Stephanie Januchowski‐Hartley; Tamlin Pavelsky

    Over the past decade, remote sensing data has improved in resolution and become more widely available, bringing new opportunities for its use in environmental science and conservation. One potential application is to identify and map instream infrastructure across the world, with important implications for fisheries, hydrology, flooding, and more. To date, databases of instream infrastructure focus

  • Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-29
    John W. Nielsen‐Gammon; Jay L. Banner; Benjamin I. Cook; Darrel M. Tremaine; Corinne I. Wong; Robert E. Mace; Huilin Gao; Zong‐Liang Yang; Marisa Flores Gonzalez; Richard Hoffpauir; Tom Gooch; Kevin Kloesel

    Long‐range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting

  • Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-10
    N. Elguindi; C. Granier; T. Stavrakou; S. Darras; M. Bauwens; H. Cao; C. Chen; H. A. C. Denier van der Gon; O. Dubovik; T. M. Fu; D. K. Henze; Z. Jiang; S. Keita; J. J. P. Kuenen; J. Kurokawa; C. Liousse; K. Miyazaki; J.‐F. Müller; Z. Qu; F. Solmon; B. Zheng

    This study compares recent CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2, BC, and OC anthropogenic emissions from several state‐of‐the‐art top‐down estimates to global and regional bottom‐up inventories and projections from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in several regions. Results show that top‐down emissions derived in several recent studies exhibit similar uncertainty as bottom‐up inventories in some regions for

  • Quantifying Water Scarcity in Northern China Within the Context of Climatic and Societal Changes and South‐to‐North Water Diversion
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-26
    Yuanyuan Yin; Lei Wang; Zhongjing Wang; Qiuhong Tang; Shilong Piao; Deliang Chen; Jun Xia; Tobias Conradt; Junguo Liu; Yoshihide Wada; Ximing Cai; Zhenghui Xie; Qingyun Duan; Xiuping Li; Jing Zhou; Jianyun Zhang

    With the increasing pressure from population growth and economic development, northern China (NC) faces a grand challenge of water scarcity, which can be further exacerbated by climatic and societal changes. The South‐to‐North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to mitigate the water scarcity in NC. However, few studies have quantified the impact of the SNWD on water scarcity within the context

  • Assessing River Basin Development Given Water‐Energy‐Food‐Environment Interdependencies
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-24
    Robel Geressu; Christian Siderius; Julien J. Harou; Japhet Kashaigili; Laetitia Pettinotti; Declan Conway

    Many river basins in the Global South are undergoing rapid development with major implications for the interdependent water‐energy‐food‐environmental (WEFE) “nexus” sectors. A range of views on the extent to which such natural‐human systems should be developed typically exists. The perceived best investments in river basins depend on how one frames the planning problem. Therefore, we propose an approach

  • Demand for Ports to 2050: Climate Policy, Growing Trade and the Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-07-17
    Susan E. Hanson; Robert J. Nicholls

    Port infrastructure is critical to the world's economy and has seen major expansion over the last few decades. In the future there are likely to be further demands for port capacity which will require additional port area while existing ports will need upgrading in response to sea‐level rise to maintain current levels of operability. This analysis considers potential changes to 2050 under four climate‐based

  • Estimating Arctic Temperature Impacts from Select European Residential Heating Appliances and Mitigation Strategies.
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-26
    Brannon Seay,Anna M Adetona,Marcus Sarofim,Michael Kolian

    The use of residential heating devices is a key source of black carbon and other short‐lived climate forcer emissions in Arctic and other high‐latitude regions, with important impacts to the Arctic climate and human health. The types of combustion technologies and fuels used vary by region, which impacts the emission profiles of these pollutants and thus the magnitude of Arctic climate responses. Using

  • A Framework to Quantify the Uncertainty Contribution of GCMs Over Multiple Sources in Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-07-11
    Hui‐Min Wang; Jie Chen; Chong‐Yu Xu; Jianke Zhang; Hua Chen

    The quantification of climate change impacts on hydrology is subjected to multiple uncertainty sources. Large ensembles of hydrological simulations based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) have been commonly applied to represent overall uncertainty of hydrological impacts. However, as increasing numbers of global climate models (GCMs) are being developed, how many GCMs in MMEs are sufficient to characterize

  • A Spatially Variable Time Series of Sea Level Change Due to Artificial Water Impoundment
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-25
    William B. Hawley; Carling C. Hay; Jerry X. Mitrovica; Robert E. Kopp

    The artificial impoundment of water behind dams causes global mean sea level (GMSL) to fall as reservoirs fill but also generates a local rise in sea level due to the increased mass in the reservoir and the crustal deformation this mass induces. To estimate spatiotemporal fluctuations in sea level due to water impoundment, we use a historical data set that includes 6,329 reservoirs completed between

  • Spatial Simulation of Codesigned Land Cover Change Scenarios in New England: Alternative Futures and Their Consequences for Conservation Priorities
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-03
    Jonathan R. Thompson; Joshua S. Plisinski; Kathy Fallon Lambert; Matthew J. Duveneck; Luca Morreale; Marissa McBride; Meghan Graham MacLean; Marissa Weiss; Lucy Lee

    Scientists are increasingly engaging with stakeholders to codesign scenarios of land use change necessitating methods to translate the resulting qualitative scenarios into quantitative simulations. We demonstrate a transparent method for translating participatory scenarios to simulations of land use and land cover (LULC) change using the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) project as a case study

  • Past variance and future projections of the environmental conditions driving western U.S. summertime wildfire burn area
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-07-17
    Steven J. Brey; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Jeffrey R. Pierce; Abigail L. S. Swann; Emily V. Fischer

    Increases in Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) have been hypothesized as the primary driver of future fire changes. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models agree that western U.S. surface temperatures and associated dryness of air as defined by the VPD will increase in the 21st century for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. However, we find that averaged over

  • The Magnitude of Regional‐Scale Tree Mortality Caused by the Invasive Pathogen Phytophthora ramorum
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-08
    Richard C. Cobb; Sarah E. Haas; Nicholas Kruskamp; Whalen W. Dillon; Tedmund J. Swiecki; David M. Rizzo; Susan J. Frankel; Ross K. Meentemeyer

    Forest pathogens are important drivers of tree mortality across the globe, but it is exceptionally challenging to gather and build unbiased quantitative models of their impacts. Here we harness the rare data set matching the spatial scale of pathogen invasion, host, and disease heterogeneity to estimate infection and mortality for the four most susceptible host species of Phytophthora ramorum , an

  • Changes in West African Summer Monsoon Precipitation Under Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-06-11
    C. Y. Da‐Allada; E. Baloïtcha; E. A. Alamou; F. M. Awo; F. Bonou; Y. Pomalegni; E. I. Biao; E. Obada; J. E. Zandagba; S. Tilmes; P. J. Irvine

    Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) is suggested as a potential way to reduce the climate impacts of global warming. Using simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble project that employed stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection to keep global mean surface temperature and also the interhemispheric and equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients at their 2020 values (present‐day climate) under

  • Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict.
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-25
    Katharine J Mach,W Neil Adger,Halvard Buhaug,Marshall Burke,James D Fearon,Christopher B Field,Cullen S Hendrix,Caroline M Kraan,Jean-Francois Maystadt,John O'Loughlin,Philip Roessler,Jürgen Scheffran,Kenneth A Schultz,Nina von Uexkull

    The potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate‐conflict linkages and conditions

  • Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-26
    Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile; Qiuhong Tang; Seyed‐Mohammad Hosseini‐Moghari; Xingcai Liu; T. G. Gebremicael; Guoyong Leng; Asfaw Kebede; Ximeng Xu; Xiaobo Yun

    Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the

  • Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study.
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-25
    Hafsa Ahmed Munia,Joseph H A Guillaume,Yoshihide Wada,Ted Veldkamp,Vili Virkki,Matti Kummu

    Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and

  • A Method for Enhancing Capacity of Local Governance for Climate Change Adaptation
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-11
    D. S. Williams; L. Celliers; K. Unverzagt; N. Videira; M. Máñez Costa; R. Giordano

    The lack of capacity for climate change adaptation at the subnational level has been highlighted as a key barrier to implementing the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans. At the same time, the adaptive capacity of local governance is highly context sensitive, making a “one‐size fits all” approach inappropriate. Thus, a versatile methodological approach for application in various local contexts is required

  • Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-09
    Glynn C. Hulley; Benedicte Dousset; Brian H. Kahn

    Research on heatwaves has gained significant impetus over the past decade due to a warming planet and rapid 21st century urbanization. This study examines driving factors influencing heatwave trends and interannual variability across Southern California (SoCal) from 1950–2020. Inland urban areas of Los Angeles county are the most susceptible to heatwaves with strong increasing trends in frequency,

  • Social‐Environmental Extremes: Rethinking Extraordinary Events as Outcomes of Interacting Biophysical and Social Systems
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-29
    Jennifer K. Balch; Virginia Iglesias; Anna E. Braswell; Matthew W. Rossi; Maxwell B. Joseph; Adam L. Mahood; Trisha R. Shrum; Caitlin T. White; Victoria M. Scholl; Bryce McGuire; Claire Karban; Mollie Buckland; William R. Travis

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, fires, hurricanes, floods, and landslides cause the largest losses in the United States, and globally, from natural hazards linked to weather and climate. There is evidence that the frequency of such extremes is increasing, particularly for heat waves, large fires, and intense precipitation, making better understanding of the probability and consequences of these events

  • Resilience to Large, “Catastrophic” Wildfires in North America's Grassland Biome
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-26
    Victoria M. Donovan; Dirac Twidwell; Daniel R. Uden; Tsegaye Tadesse; Brian D. Wardlow; Christine H. Bielski; Matthew O. Jones; Brady W. Allred; David E. Naugle; Craig R. Allen

    Wildfires are ecosystem‐level drivers of structure and function in many vegetated biomes. While numerous studies have emphasized the benefits of fire to ecosystems, large wildfires have also been associated with the loss of ecosystem services and shifts in vegetation abundance. The size and number of wildfires are increasing across a number of regions, and yet the outcomes of large wildfire on vegetation

  • Defining Robustness, Vulnerabilities, and Consequential Scenarios for Diverse Stakeholder Interests in Institutionally Complex River Basins
    Earths Future (IF 6.141) Pub Date : 2020-05-12
    Antonia Hadjimichael; Julianne Quinn; Erin Wilson; Patrick Reed; Leon Basdekas; David Yates; Michelle Garrison

    The Upper Basin of the Colorado River in the southwestern United States supports municipal, industrial, agricultural, and recreational activities worth an estimated $300 billion/year within the state of Colorado alone. The allocation of water to these activities is fundamentally shaped by water rights that in turn distribute risks among a diverse suite of sectors and stakeholders. In this study, we

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