Globally, many parts of fire emissions are driven by deforestation. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate deforestation and vegetation degradation fires (DDF) and predict how they will change in the future. In this study, we expanded a fire model used in the Community Land Model to reflect the diverse causes of DDF. This enabled us to differentiate DDFs by cause (climate change, wood harvesting

Tropical forests play a key role in absorbing carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface. Recent analyses of long‐term (1985‐2014) forest inventory plots across the tropics show that structurally intact tropical forest are a large carbon sink, but that this sink has saturated and is projected to be in long‐term decline. Here we compare these results with estimates from the two latest generations

Lockdown measures in response to the new Covid‐19 virus have caused the largest ever fall of annual greenhouse gas emissions. A key question that we attempt to answer in this study is which, if any, of these measures can be productively encouraged post‐lockdown in efforts to sustain at least part of this reduction in emissions. Sweden is uniquely suited for our study because the voluntary nature of

Improved understanding of how our coasts will evolve over a range of time scales (years‐decades) is critical for effective and sustainable management of coastal infrastructure. A robust knowledge of the spatial, directional and temporal variability of the inshore wave climate is required to predict future coastal evolution and hence vulnerability. However, the variability of the inshore directional

Nitrogen (N) fertilization has boosted grain production during the past century, while excess N fertilization with declining N use efficiency (NUE) has led to severe pollution in many regions. To achieve the goal of sustainable food production, Technologies and Management Practices (TMPs, e.g., optimum N application rate and methods, N‐transformation inhibitors) have been developed to improve crop

There is a substantial gap between the current emissions of greenhouse gases and levels required for achieving the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets of the Paris Agreement. Understanding the implications of a temperature overshoot is thus an increasingly relevant research topic. Here we explore the carbon cycle feedbacks over land and ocean in the SSP5‐3.4‐OS overshoot scenario by using an ensemble

Silicate rock weathering maintains a stable and long‐term absorption of CO2. However, the magnitude, spatial pattern, and evolution characteristics of global silicate rock weathering carbon sink (SCS) remain unclear. To solve this problem, based on high‐precision hydrometeorological data (1996–2017) and CMIP5 data (2041–2060), using the Celine model, we calculated the global silicate rock weathering

The warming climate can considerably affect socioeconomic activities and environmental health conditions in Canada. Climate models play a key role in evaluating the impact of climate change and developing adaption and mitigation strategies corresponding to Canadian regions. This study compares the behavior of climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)

Rising mean and extreme sea‐levels and induced increased coastal flooding are expected to lead to massive coastal migration if coasts are not protected. Using a wide range of sea‐level rise (SLR) scenarios, socioeconomic pathways and discount rate assumptions, 21st century coastal migration is assessed at global scale assuming local cost‐benefit optimal protection decisions for about 12,000 coastal

No abstract is available for this article.

Sea level rise (SLR) could have catastrophic consequences worldwide. More than 600 million people currently living in coastal areas may see their livelihood at risk and choose to migrate in the near future. Predicting when, how, and where people could migrate under environmental change is critical to devise effective policy initiatives and improve our preparedness. Here, we propose a modeling framework

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a major climate variability in the tropics which drives the abiotic stress associated with heavy rainfalls and severe droughts, is not much understood in terms of its role in the carbon cycle, while El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related terrestrial carbon cycle variation has been intensively studied. Here, we investigate IOD's impact on land photosynthesis over the

Globally, heat stress (HS) is nearly certain to increase rapidly over the coming decades, characterized by increased frequency, severity, and spatiotemporal extent of extreme temperature and humidity. While these characteristics have been investigated independently, a holistic analysis integrating them is potentially more informative. Using observations, climate projections from the CMIP5 model ensemble

Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services of local and global importance, but there currently exists no comprehensive, high‐quality wetland map for the Arctic region. Improved information about Arctic wetland extents and their vulnerability to climate change is essential for adaptation and mitigation efforts, including for indigenous people dependent on the ecosystem services that wetlands provide

Heatwaves are an accustomed extreme event of the Australian climate, which can cause catastrophic impacts on human health, agriculture, and urban and natural systems. We have analyzed the trends in Australia‐wide heatwave metrics (frequency, duration, intensity, number, cumulative magnitude, timing, and season duration) across 69 extended summer seasons (i.e., from November‐1951 to March‐2020). Our

Australia, the driest inhabited continent, is prone to natural disasters, such as droughts, floods, bushfires and heatwaves. Strong climate variability causes recurring threats to water supply, agriculture and the environment. Improving our insight into changes in hydroclimatic patterns is required to provide useful information for society. Previous studies mainly focused on the causes of extreme wet

Agricultural irrigation is the major water consumer in the Mediterranean region. In response to the growing pressure on freshwater resources, more efficient irrigation technologies have been widely promoted. In this study, we assess the impact of the ongoing transition from flood to drip irrigation on future hydroclimatic regimes under various climate change scenarios, with a particular focus on actual

More than half of the total population in China are living in cities. Especially, the people in highly developed and spatially integrated city clusters, i.e., urban agglomerations (UAs), are facing increasing human‐perceived heat stress that describes the combined effects of hot temperature, high humidity, and lowered surface wind speed. By analyzing multiple indicators over 20 major UAs across China

The Arctic faces multiple pressures including climate change, shifting demographics, human health risks, social justice imbalances, governance issues, and expanding resource extraction. A convergence of academic disciplines—such as natural and social sciences, engineering and technology, health and medicine—and international perspectives is required to meaningfully contribute to solving the challenges

Sub‐Saharan Africa has long been beset with food insecurity and energy poverty. Expanding irrigated agriculture can help boost food production in the region, but this requires energy for accessing water, especially in groundwater‐fed irrigation. This paper compared economic performance of groundwater pumping for irrigation under two energy solutions: solar photovoltaic (PV) and diesel fuel. We estimated

Anthropogenic aerosols are hazardous to human health but have helped offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs), creating a potential regulatory tradeoff. As countries implement their GHG reduction targets under the Paris climate agreement, the co‐emissions of aerosols and their precursors will also change. Since these co‐emissions vary by country and by economic sector, each country will face different

Recently, yield shocks due to extreme weather events and their consequences for food security have become a major concern. Although long yield time series are available in Europe, few studies have been conducted to analyze them in order to investigate the impact of adverse climate events on yield shocks under current and future climate conditions. Here we designated the lowest 10th percentile of the

Precipitation varies spatio‐temporally in amount, intensity, and frequency. Although, much research has been conducted on analyzing precipitation patterns and variation at the global scale, trend types have still not received much attention. This study developed a new polynomial‐based model for detecting nonlinear and linear trends in a satellite precipitation product (TRMM 3B43) for the 1998–2017

Natural and non‐natural factors have combined effects on the trajectory of COVID‐19 pandemic, but it is difficult to make them separate. To address this problem, a two‐stepped methodology is proposed. First, a compound natural factor (CNF) model is developed via assigning weight to each of seven investigated natural factors, that is temperature, humidity, visibility, wind speed, barometric pressure

Storing and managing river flows through reservoirs could dampen or increase climate‐induced fluctuations in streamflow, but interactions between the effects of dams and climate are poorly understood. Here, we examined how dam properties control different facets of flow alteration across the coterminous United States (CONUS), and compared alteration trends between dam‐affected and reference stream

Accurate prediction of coastal flooding requires a detailed understanding of all individual contributions to sea level variability and how they interact to trigger extreme sea level (ESL) events. In this study, we focus on the expansive (∼10,000 km) coastline of Western Australia, a region that experiences large latitudinal gradients in met‐ocean sources of sea level variability, as a case study to

Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a “safe

The differential climatic impact between the 1.5° versus 2°C warmer worlds is a global concern on the post‐Paris science agenda. The recently released Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report “Global Warming of 1.5ºC” (hereafter SR15) concludes robustly avoided impacts from climate extremes from the 0.5°C less warming globally, based on multiple lines of evidence. However, the

Observing the spatial heterogeneities of NO2 air pollution is an important first step in quantifying NOX emissions and exposures. This study investigates the capabilities of the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in observing the spatial and temporal patterns of NO2 pollution in the continental United States. The unprecedented sensitivity of the sensor can differentiate the fine‐scale spatial

In a rapidly changing world, what is today an unprecedented extreme may soon become the norm. As a result, extreme‐related disasters are expected to become more frequent and intense. This will have widespread socio‐economic consequences and affect the ability of different societal groups to recover from and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions. Therefore, there is the need to decipher

No abstract is available for this article.

Future changes in the frequency and destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) over East Asia were investigated by analyzing the simulations of two high‐resolution (20–25‐km) atmospheric general circulation models forced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the present period (1979–2003) and under future warming conditions (2075–2099) of the RCP8.5 scenario. The present‐day simulations capture

To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with

Stratocumulus clouds over the Southern Ocean have fewer droplets and are more likely to exist in the predominately supercooled phase than clouds at similar temperatures over northern oceans. One likely reason is that this region has few continental and anthropogenic sources of cloud‐nucleating particles that can form droplets and ice. In this work, we present an overview of aerosol particle types over

The term Anthropocene initially emerged from the Earth System science community in the early 2000s, denoting a concept that the Holocene Epoch has terminated as a consequence of human activities. First associated with the onset of the Industrial Revolution, it was then more closely linked with the Great Acceleration in industrialization and globalization from the 1950s that fundamentally modified physical

The achievement of global sustainability agendas, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, relies on transformational change across society, economy, and environment that are co‐created in a transdisciplinary exercise by all stakeholders. Within this context, environmental and societal change is increasingly understood and represented via participatory modeling for genuine engagement with multiple

Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected

Following an unprecedented drought, Australia's 2019/2020 “Black Summer” fire season caused severe damage, gravely impacting both humans and ecosystems, and increasing susceptibility to other hazards. Heavy precipitation in early 2020 led to flooding and runoff that entrained ash and soil in burned areas, increasing sediment concentration in rivers, and reducing water quality. We exemplify this hazard

The global monsoon system is of exceptional socioeconomic importance owing to its impacts on two‐thirds of the globe’s population. Major volcanic eruptions strongly influence global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation change. By using 60 plausible eruption scenarios sampled from reconstructed volcanic proxies over the past 2,500 years, 21st century volcanic influences on GLM precipitation projections

Southern California has a long history of damaging debris flows after wildfire. Despite recurrent loss, forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows are not available for the region like they are for earthquakes. Instead, debris flow hazards are typically assessed in a reactive manner after wildfires. Such assessments are crucial for evaluating debris flow risk by postfire emergency

Global warming is leading to increased heat stress in many regions around the world. An extensive number of heat stress indicators (HSIs) has been developed to measure the associated impacts on human health. Here we calculate eight HSIs for global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We compare their future trends as function of global mean temperature

Geoengineering is the focus of a large debate over potential solutions to climate change. However, in the midst of geoengineering and other large‐scale proposals, such as reducing emissions at an industrial level, the role of individual actions to reduce emissions is often overlooked. Given the current and fast‐paced changes we have seen as emissions are reduced by COVID‐19 social distancing strategies

The Greater Mekong Subregion is a transnational area bound together by the Mekong River basin and its immense hydropower resources, historically seen as the backbone of regional economic development. The basin is now punctuated by several dams, successful in attracting both international investors and fierce criticisms for their environmental and societal impacts. Surprisingly, no attention has been

Extreme geohazard events can change landscape morphology by redistributing huge volumes of sediment. Event‐driven sediment deposition is typically studied in unbuilt settings – despite the ubiquity of occurrence and high economic cost of these geohazard impacts in built environments. Moreover, sedimentary consequences of extreme events in built settings tend to go unrecorded because they are rapidly

Global water use for food production needs to be reduced to remain within planetary boundaries, yet the financial feasibility of crucial measures to reduce water use is poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a novel method to compare the costs of water conservation measures with the added value that reallocation of water savings might generate if used for expansion of irrigation. Based on detailed water

No abstract is available for this article.

Typhoons play a key role in causing low ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the western Pacific. In this study, 18 years records (2000–2017) of balloon‐borne ozone measurements in Hong Kong (22.3°N, 114.2°E) and Naha (26.2°N, 127.7°E) are combined with trajectory calculations to quantitatively assess the impact of western Pacific typhoons on ozone in the

Pluvial floods in urban areas are caused by local, fast storm events with very high rainfall rates, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings before the storm water reaches a watercourse. An increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and an ongoing urbanization may further increase the risk of pluvial flooding in many urban areas. Currently, warnings for pluvial floods are

The accurate quantification of uncertainties in regional sea‐level projections is essential for guiding policy makers. As climate models do not currently simulate total sea level, these uncertainties must be quantified through summation of uncertainties in individual sea‐level components. This summation depends on the correlation between the components, which has previously been prescribed or derived

Small island developing states face particular challenges to ensure their infrastructure promotes social, economic, and environmental well‐being. Closing the achievement gap for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) involves prioritization and coordination across multiple sectors. With an application to the country of Saint Lucia, this paper develops a stakeholder‐driven analysis framework integrating

Coastal climate adaptation public works, such as storm surge barriers and levees, are central elements of several current proposals to limit damages from coastal storms and sea‐level rise in the United States. Academic analysis of these public works projects is dominated by technocratic and engineering‐driven frameworks. However, social conflict, laws, political incentives, governance structures, and

The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress‐testing”

Afforestation is gaining popularity as a climate mitigation policy in many countries, including high latitude regions such as Norway. However, the impacts of afforestation on local‐to‐regional climate is poorly understood. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model to investigate the biogeophysical impacts of different forestry scenarios on the local‐to‐regional climate of Norway. The

Mediterranean mountainous areas of shallow soil often display a mosaic of tree clumps surrounded by grass. The combined role and dynamics of water extracted from the underlying rock, and the competition between adjacent patches of trees and grass, has not been investigated. We quantified the role rock water plays in the seasonal dynamics of evapotranspiration (ET), over a patchy landscape in the context

The United States is a world leader in the production of maize and other crops and the agricultural success of the country is directly linked to the intensive use of fertilizers and irrigation. However, even in advanced agricultural systems, soils can become degraded over time due to factors such as soil organic matter (SOM) loss and erosion. Here, we use a series of scenario‐based model analyses to

Marked by large interannual variability, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall has profound socio‐economic impacts through its dominant influence on floods and droughts. Improving predictions of the interannual variations of EASM rainfall has important implications for over 20% of the world's population. While coupled modeling systems have demonstrated some prediction skill related to the El Niño

The complex set of human‐driven global, social, technological, and environmental changes intensifying dramatically since 1950 has been identified as the “Great Acceleration.” This period of time represents a radical shift in our collective relationship to each other as well as to the Earth system as a whole. In this article I consider two major paradigms now taking shape to offer different perspectives

Landslide hazards significantly affect economies and populations around the world, but locations where the greatest proportional losses occur are in data‐poor regions where capacity to estimate and prepare for these hazards is most limited. Earth observation (EO) data can fill key knowledge gaps, and can be rapidly used in settings with lower analytical capacity. In this study, we describe a novel

The Arctic warming response to greenhouse gas forcing is substantially greater than the rest of the globe. It has been suggested that this phenomenon, commonly referred to as Arctic amplification, and its peak in boreal fall and winter result primarily from the lapse‐rate feedback, which is associated with the vertical structure of tropospheric warming, rather than from the sea‐ice albedo feedback

No abstract is available for this article.