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Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Aboveground Biomass in China's Oasis Grasslands Between 1989 and 2021 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-18 Peng Chen, Shuai Wang, Yanxu Liu, Yijia Wang, Jiaxi Song, Qiang Tang, Ying Yao, Yaping Wang, Xutong Wu, Fangli Wei, Siyuan Feng
Grassland provides multiple ecosystem services and plays a key role in preventing desert encroachment and maintaining oasis stability. In China, the area of cropland in oases has expanded significantly in recent decades, which results in a rapid increase in agricultural water demand and encroachment on grassland subsistence space. However, our knowledge about how the expansion of cropland affects oasis
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Projecting Flood Risk Dynamics for Effective Long-Term Adaptation Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-13 Lukas Schoppa, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Dominik Paprotny, Nivedita Sairam, Tobias Sieg, Heidi Kreibich
Flood losses have steadily increased in the past and are expected to grow even further owing to climate and socioeconomic change. The reduction of flood vulnerability, for example, through adaptation, plays a key role in the mitigation of future flood risk. However, lacking knowledge about vulnerability dynamics, which arise from the interaction between floods and the ensuing response by society, limits
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Temperature-Dependence Assumptions Drive Projected Responses of Diverse Size-Based Food Webs to Warming Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-13 J. C. P. Reum, P. Woodworth-Jefcoats, C. Novaglio, R. Forestier, A. Audzijonyte, A. Gårdmark, M. Lindmark, J. L. Blanchard
Food web projections are critical for evaluating potential risks to ecosystems and fisheries under global warming. The temperature dependence of biological processes and regional differences in food web structure are two important sources of uncertainty and variation in climate forced projections of fish communities, but we do not know their magnitude or relative contribution. Here we systematically
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Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Jeroen Steenbeek, Pablo Ortega, Raffaele Bernardello, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, Eleftheria Exarchou, Alba Fuster-Alonso, Ryan Heneghan, Laura Julià Melis, Maria Grazia Pennino, David Rivas, Noel Keenlyside
Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate
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Expanding the Spatial Reach and Human Impacts of Critical Zone Science Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-09 Kamini Singha, Pamela L. Sullivan, Sharon A. Billings, Leon Walls, Li Li, Karla M. Jarecke, Holly R. Barnard, Nicole M. Gasparini, Risa D. Madoff, Saroj Dhital, Candace Jones, Eric C. Kastelic, Lin Ma, Paula Perilla-Castillo, Boyoung Song, Tieyuan Zhu
Two major barriers hinder the holistic understanding of subsurface critical zone (CZ) evolution and its impacts: (a) an inability to measure, define, and share information and (b) a societal structure that inhibits inclusivity and creativity. In contrast to the aboveground portion of the CZ, which is visible and measurable, the bottom boundary is difficult to access and quantify. In the context of
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Uncovering Current and Future Variations of Irrigation Water Use Across China Using Machine Learning Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-09 Kai Liu, Yong Bo, Xueke Li, Shudong Wang, Guangsheng Zhou
Accurately characterizing changes in irrigation water use (IWU) is crucial for formulating optimal water resource allocation policies, particularly in the context of climate change. However, existing IWU estimation methods suffer from uncertainties due to limited data availability and model constraints, restricting their applicability on a national scale and under future climate change scenarios. We
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Understanding the Impact of Precipitation Bias-Correction and Statistical Downscaling Methods on Projected Changes in Flood Extremes Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Alexander T. Michalek, Gabriele Villarini, Taereem Kim
This study evaluates five bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) techniques for daily precipitation and examines their impacts on the projected changes in flood extremes (i.e., 1%, 0.5%, and 0.2% floods). We use climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to conduct hydrologic simulations across watersheds in Iowa and determine historical and future
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Do Vegetation Fuel Reduction Treatments Alter Forest Fire Severity and Carbon Stability in California Forests? Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Kristofer L. Daum, Winslow D. Hansen, Jacob Gellman, Andrew J. Plantinga, Charles Jones, Anna T. Trugman
Forest fire frequency, extent, and severity have rapidly increased in recent decades across the western United States (US) due to climate change and suppression-oriented wildfire management. Fuels reduction treatments are an increasingly popular management tool, as evidenced by California's plan to treat 1 million acres annually by 2050. However, the aggregate efficacy of fuels treatments in dry forests
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A Consumption-Based Integrated Framework for Subnational Absolute Environmental Sustainability Management Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Fanxin Meng, Danqi Liao, Dongfang Wang, Gengyuan Liu, Sai Liang, Silvio Cristiano, Xiaowen Li, Zhifeng Yang
As human consumption expands, four environmental footprints (EFs) exceed the planetary boundaries (PBs) at the global scale. Managing absolute environmental sustainability (AES) based on PBs and EFs at the subnational level is crucial for policy insights. However, a consumption-based AES management framework still needs to be developed. A framework, including five nexus environmental pressures embodied
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An Empirical Social Vulnerability Map for Flood Risk Assessment at Global Scale (“GlobE-SoVI”) Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Lena Reimann, Elco Koks, Hans de Moel, Marijn J. Ton, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Fatalities caused by natural hazards are driven not only by population exposure, but also by their vulnerability to these events, determined by intersecting characteristics such as education, age and income. Empirical evidence of the drivers of social vulnerability, however, is limited due to a lack of relevant data, in particular on a global scale. Consequently, existing global-scale risk assessments
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The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea-Level Change in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Region Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Vedant Vairagi, Kristin Richter, Elaine L. McDonagh, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Lock Yue Chew, Benjamin P. Horton
Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm
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Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Science for BECCS in Abandoned Croplands Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Jan Sandstad Næss, Ida Marie Henriksen, Tomas Moe Skjølsvold
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) plays a vital role in most climate change mitigation scenarios, where a solution for sustainable near-term bioenergy expansion is to grow energy crops such as perennial grasses on recently abandoned cropland. There is a need to combine model-based insights into theoretical potential and future biomass supply with more fine-grained sociotechnical analysis
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Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Wetlands to Upwind Land Use Changes Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Simon Felix Fahrländer, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Agnes Pranindita, Fernando Jaramillo
Despite their importance, wetland ecosystems protected by the Ramsar Convention are under pressure from climate change and human activities. These drivers are altering water availability in these wetlands, changing water levels or surface water extent, in some cases, beyond historical variability. Attribution of the effects of human and climate activities is usually focused on changes within the wetlands
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Temporal Scaling Characteristics of Sub-Daily Precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-27 Zhihui Ren, Yan-Fang Sang, Peng Cui, Deliang Chen, Yichi Zhang, Tongliang Gong, Shao Sun, Nedra Mellouli
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly susceptible to destructive rainstorm hazards and related natural disasters. However, the lack of sub-daily precipitation observations in this region has hindered our understanding of rainstorm-related hazards and their societal impacts. To address this data gap, a new approach is devised to estimate sub-daily precipitation in QTP using daily precipitation data
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The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Yunhua Mo, Shouzhi Chen, Zhaofei Wu, Jing Tang, Yongshuo Fu
Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation
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Heterogeneities in Regional Air Pollutant Emission Mitigation Across China During 2012–2020 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Hongyan Zhao, Wenjie He, Jing Cheng, Yang Liu, Yixuan Zheng, Hezhong Tian, Kebin He, Yu Lei, Qiang Zhang
The toughest-ever clean air actions to date in China have helped to reduce national air pollutant emissions significantly in recent years. However, the heterogeneous mitigation paths and their determinated factors among regions were less concerned. To direct regional mitigation strategies more efficiently, we compiled a time-series emission inventory of Chinese 30 provinces for SO2, NOx, primary PM2
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Issue Information Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-27
No abstract is available for this article.
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Global Vegetation-Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-22 Wang Yuxi, Peng Li, Yue Yuemin, Chen Tiantian
It has been projected that climatic warming will contribute to vegetation productivity variability at the global scale. With a continued warming, to what extent and where the vegetation productivity is most affected by warming has still not been adequately quantified. Herein, based on 11 earth system model outputs, we predict the characteristics of vegetation-temperature sensitivity (Svpt, defined
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Earth Observation to Address Inequities in Post-Flood Recovery Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-22 H. K. Friedrich, B. Tellman, J. A. Sullivan, A. Saunders, A. A. Zuniga-Teran, L. A. Bakkensen, M. Cawley, M. Dolk, R. A. Emberson, S. A. Forrest, N. Gupta, N. Gyawali, C. A. Hall, A. J. Kettner, J. L. Sanchez Lozano, G. B. Bola
Floods impact communities worldwide, resulting in loss of life, damaged infrastructure and natural assets, and threatened livelihoods. Climate change and urban development in flood-prone areas will continue to worsen flood-related losses, increasing the urgency for effective tools to monitor recovery. Many Earth Observation (EO) applications exist for flood-hazard monitoring and provide insights on
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30 m Resolution Global Maps of Forest Soil Respiration and Its Changes From 2000 to 2020 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-22 Zhengyong Zhao, Xiaogang Ding, Guangyu Wang, Yingying Li
The soil respiration (Rs) of forests is a major component of global Rs, yet few studies have focused on it. This study aimed to estimate global forest Rs and its changes at a resolution of 30 m via an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Five input candidates representing forest type, climatic, soil, and geographical information, as well as 1472 satisfactory forest Rs records, were used to build
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Fast Transit of Carbon Inputs in Global Soil Profiles Regardless of Entering Depth Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-17 Guocheng Wang, Mingming Wang, Liujun Xiao, Carlos A. Sierra, Jinfeng Chang, Zhou Shi, Zhongkui Luo
Climate and land management changes are altering carbon inputs to soil. The consequence of such input changes on long-term soil organic carbon (SOC) balance depends on the transit behavior of carbon inputs. Using observational carbon input and radiocarbon data in global soil profiles, we reveal that on average nearly 25% of new entering carbon leave soil in 1 year irrespective of entering depth, and
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Current and Future Patterns of Global Wildfire Based on Deep Neural Networks Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-18 Guoli Zhang, Ming Wang, Baolin Yang, Kai Liu
Global climate change and extreme weather has a profound impact on wildfire, and it is of great importance to explore wildfire patterns in the context of global climate change for wildfire prevention and management. In this paper, a wildfire spatial prediction model based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) was constructed in the reference period (1997–2014) by using wildfire driving factors and
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Observational Evidence Reveals Compound Humid Heat Stress-Extreme Rainfall Hotspots in India Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-11 Poulomi Ganguli, Bruno Merz
Sequential climate hazards, such as “warm and wet” compound extremes, have direct societal implications for highly urbanized regions and agricultural production. While typically extreme temperatures and rainfall are inversely correlated during the summer, extreme humid heatwaves often lead to atmospheric instability and moisture convection, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation (EP). Little
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Incorporating Intensity Distance Attenuation Into PLUM Ground-Motion-Based Earthquake Early Warning in the United States: The APPLES Configuration Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Jessie K. Saunders, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Julian J. Bunn, Annemarie S. Baltay, Sarah E. Minson, Colin T. O’Rourke
We develop Attenuated ProPagation of Local Earthquake Shaking (APPLES), a new configuration for the United States West Coast version of the Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm that incorporates attenuation into its ground-motion prediction procedures. Under APPLES, instead of using a fixed radius to forward-predict observed peak ground shaking to the
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Climate Change Will Impact Surface Water Extents and Dynamics Across the Central United States Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-11 Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Jay R. Christensen, Laurie C. Alexander, Charles R. Lane, Heather E. Golden
Climate change is projected to impact river, lake, and wetland hydrology, with global implications for the condition and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. We integrated Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 based algorithms to track monthly surface water extent (2017–2021) for 32 sites across the central United States (U.S.). Median surface water extent was highly variable across sites, ranging from 3.9% to
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The Need for Multi-Century Projections of Sea Level Rise Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Matthew D. Palmer, Jennifer H. Weeks
The latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided scenario-based local sea level projections to 2150 and characterized the long-term committed global mean sea level rise on 2,000- and 10,000-year time horizons associated with peak surface warming levels. Turner et al. build on the scientific assessment of the IPCC to provide time-continuous projections of
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Underappreciated Emission Spikes From Power Plants During Heatwaves Observed From Space: Case Studies in India and China Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-10 Song Liu, Lei Shu, Lei Zhu, Yu Song, Wenfu Sun, Yuyang Chen, Dakang Wang, Dongchuan Pu, Xicheng Li, Shuai Sun, Juan Li, Xiaoxing Zuo, Weitao Fu, Xin Yang, Tzung-May Fu
The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heatwaves are projected to increase in the global context of climate change. However, evidence of how anthropogenic emissions respond to heatwaves and further impact air quality remains elusive. Here, we use satellite remote sensing measurements alongside chemical transport model simulations to reveal abrupt variations in primary and secondary air pollutants
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KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-11 Karin van der Wiel, Jules Beersma, Henk van den Brink, Folmer Krikken, Frank Selten, Camiel Severijns, Andreas Sterl, Erik van Meijgaard, Thomas Reerink, Rob van Dorland
This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions
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Toward a US Framework for Continuity of Satellite Observations of Earth's Climate and for Supporting Societal Resilience Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-12 Duane Waliser
There is growing urgency for improved public and commercial services to support a resilient, secure, and thriving United States (US) in the face of mounting decision-support needs for environmental stewardship and hazard response, as well as for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Sustained space-based Earth observations are critical infrastructure to support the delivery of science and decision-support
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Food Demand-Driven Scarce Water Use Amplified by Pollution in China Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Yuhan Liang, Hui Li, Sai Liang, Frederick Kwame Yeboah, Zhifeng Yang
Food system has significant impacts on water scarcity, which in turn becomes a bottleneck for food security and socioeconomic development. Existing research has primarily concentrated on the relationship between food consumption and quantity-based scarce water use but has overlooked quality-based scarce water use. Here, we constructed an aggregative scarce water use indicator, considering water quantity
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A Warmer and Wetter World Would Aggravate GHG Emissions Intensity in China's Cropland Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Jingting Zhang, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoyong Li, Xiaoyu Qin, Shanmin Fang, Jingfang Zhang, Wenxiu Zhang, Siyuan Wang, Shufen Pan
Many agricultural regions in China are likely to become appreciably wetter or drier as the global climate warming increases. However, the impact of these climate change patterns on the intensity of soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (GHGI, GHG emissions per unit of crop yield) has not yet been rigorously assessed. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta-analysis of multiple
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The Influence of Future Changes in Tidal Range, Storm Surge, and Mean Sea Level on the Emergence of Chronic Flooding Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 Ben S. Hague, Stefan. A. Talke
Sea-level rise is leading to increasingly frequent coastal floods globally. Recent research shows that changes in tidal properties and storm surge magnitudes can further exacerbate sea-level rise-related increases in flood frequencies. However, such non-stationarity in tide and storm surge statistics are largely neglected in existing coastal flood projection methodologies. Here we develop a framework
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Delayed Onset of Indian Summer Monsoon in Response to CO2 Removal Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-07 Suqin Zhang, Xia Qu, Gang Huang, Peng Hu, Shijie Zhou, Liang Wu
Understanding the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset to CO2 forcing is of utmost importance for rain-fed agriculture and water management. In this study, we utilized an idealized symmetric CO2 removal scenario from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to analyze the reversibility of monsoon onset. The results show that ISM onset is reversible but exhibits strong
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National-Scale Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Susceptibility and Exposure in Nepal Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-02 M. E. Kincey, N. J. Rosser, Z. M. Swirad, T. R. Robinson, R. Shrestha, D. S. Pujara, G. K. Basyal, A. L. Densmore, K. Arrell, K. J. Oven, A. Dunant
Nepal is one of the most landslide-prone countries in the world, with year-on-year impacts resulting in loss of life and imposing a chronic impediment to sustainable livelihoods. Living with landslides is a daily reality for an increasing number of people, so establishing the nature of landslide hazard and risk is essential. Here we develop a model of landslide susceptibility for Nepal and use this
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Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Elias Nkiaka, Robert G. Bryant, Zongho Kom
Whilst there are several empirical studies linking water scarcity and violent conflicts, existing quantitative studies use mostly climate and environmental variables even though such variables have been shown to not be strong predictors of water conflicts by some studies. The aim of this study was to use the water footprint concept and the Falkenmark index to identify water scarcity hotspots at the
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Issue Information Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-30
No abstract is available for this article.
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Distinguishing Trajectories and Drivers of Vegetated Ecosystems in China's Loess Plateau Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-31 Zhuangzhuang Wang, Bojie Fu, Xutong Wu, Shuai Wang, Yingjie Li, Yuhao Feng, Liwei Zhang, Ying Hu, Linhai Cheng, Binbin Li
Terrestrial ecosystems can exhibit various behaviors in response to climate change and human activities. Nonlinear and abrupt shifts in ecosystems are particularly important as they indicate substantial modifications in ecosystem structure and function, posing a threat to the provision of ecosystem services. Here we distinguish between linear, curvilinear, and abrupt shifts in ecosystem productivity
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Bayesian Estimation of Advanced Warning Time of Precipitation Emergence Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-30 Megan Lickley, Sarah Fletcher
Climate models disagree on the direction of precipitation change over about half of the Earth. Current characterizations of expected change use the ensemble mean, which systematically underestimates the magnitude and overestimates the time of emergence (ToE) of precipitation change in regions of high uncertainty. We develop a new approach to estimate both ToE and the potential to update uncertainty
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A Systems Analysis of Sustainability Impacts of Agricultural Policies in India Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-29 P. Maji, N. E. Selin
We apply a systems framework for analyzing the overall sustainability impacts of interventions to a case of the rice-wheat cropping system of Punjab (India), where agricultural practices lead to air pollution-related health impacts, over-exploitation of groundwater, over-use of fertilizers and reduced local crop diversity. We use this case to quantify how varying degrees of change in interventions
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Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision-Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-29 Virginia R. Coletta, Alessandro Pagano, Irene Pluchinotta, Nici Zimmermann, Michael Davies, Adrian Butler, Umberto Fratino, Raffaele Giordano
Several modeling tools commonly used for supporting flood risk assessment and management are highly effective in representing physical phenomena, but provide a rather limited understanding of the multiple implications that flood risk and flood risk reduction measures have on highly complex systems such as urban areas. In fact, most of the available modeling tools do not fully account for this complexity—and
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Exposure of Global Rail and Road Infrastructures in Future Record-Breaking Climate Extremes Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-25 Qianzhi Wang, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Elco Koks, Haizhong Wang
Transport infrastructures built on historical experience are expected to face multiple threats under climate change, especially the continuous interruptive losses and additional maintenance costs caused by more intense or frequent record-breaking extreme climate events. In this study, we investigated the change in the exposure of global rail and road infrastructures to eight record-breaking meteorological
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Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-24 Chaojie Li, Tamar Kohn
Climate changes influence lake hydrodynamics and radiation levels and thus may affect the fate and transport of waterborne pathogens in lakes. This study examines the impact of climate change on the fate, transport, and associated risks of four waterborne viruses in Lake Geneva. We used a coupled water quality-microbial risk assessment model to estimate virus concentrations and associated risks to
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Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-25 André S. Ballarin, Edson Wendland, Masoud Zaerpour, Shadi Hatami, Antônio A. Meira Neto, Simon Michael Papalexiou
Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different
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Evaporation Loss From Small Agricultural Reservoirs in a Warming Climate: An Overlooked Component of Water Accounting Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-23 Milad Aminzadeh, Noemi Friedrich, Sankeerth Narayanaswamy, Kaveh Madani, Nima Shokri
Small agricultural reservoirs support water demands during dry spells. However, evaporative losses that are often overlooked in water accounting and management diminish the storage efficiency of these popular but un-inventoried resources. We developed a predictive framework to identify the spatio-temporal extent of small reservoirs (900–100,000 m2) and quantify their evaporative losses using a physically-based
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Simulated Tree-Grass Competition in Drylands Is Modulated by CO2 Fertilization Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-23 Wim Verbruggen, Guy Schurgers, Félicien Meunier, Hans Verbeeck, Stéphanie Horion
Interannual variability in climatic drivers can have a strong impact on dryland ecosystem functioning globally. While interannual variations in dryland ecosystem processes are mainly driven by rainfall, other global change drivers such as CO2 fertilization and rising temperatures can play an increasingly important role for these ecosystems. Yet, the high complexity of dryland ecosystems makes it difficult
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Anthropogenic Dust as a Significant Source of Ice-Nucleating Particles in the Urban Environment Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-23 Jie Chen, Zhijun Wu, Xianda Gong, Yanting Qiu, Shiyi Chen, Limin Zeng, Min Hu
Anthropogenic dust is an important constituent of airborne particles in the urban environment but its ice nucleation activity remains poorly investigated. Here, we studied the sources and ice nucleating properties of size-resolved particles in the urban atmosphere under mixed-phase cloud conditions. The heat-resistant ice nucleating particles (INPs) unexpectedly contributed ∼70% of the supermicron
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Coupling GEDI LiDAR and Optical Satellite for Revealing Large-Scale Maize Lodging in Northeast China Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-12 Qiang Zhang, Geli Zhang, Yao Zhang, Xiangming Xiao, Nanshan You, Zhichao Li, Hao Tang, Tong Yang, Yuanyuan Di, Jinwei Dong
Wind-induced crop lodging can reduce agricultural production and impact food security. However, a systematic evaluation of large-scale crop lodging and its drivers is lacking, mostly due to the limited observations available. Such knowledge gaps hinder the application of effective management practices to mitigate yield losses. Here, we quantify maize-lodging induced by three consecutive typhoons in
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Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi-Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-12 Mariana Madruga de Brito, Jan Sodoge, Alexander Fekete, Michael Hagenlocher, Elco Koks, Christian Kuhlicke, Gabriele Messori, Marleen de Ruiter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Philip J. Ward
Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound and cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between coupled natural and social systems. However, current decision-making processes typically only consider one impact and disaster event at a time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, and conditional dependencies between impacts. Analyses capturing these
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Global Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Fresh Groundwater Resources Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-10 Daniel Zamrsky, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Marc F. P. Bierkens
Groundwater is the main freshwater source in many densely populated and industrialized coastal areas around the world. Growing future freshwater demand is likely to increase the water stress in these coastal areas, possibly leading to groundwater overexploitation and salinization. This situation will likely be aggravated by climate change and the associated projected sea level rise. Here, we assess
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Enhanced Drought Exposure Increasingly Threatens More Forests Than Observed Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-09 Chongyang Xu, Hongyan Liu, Philippe Ciais, Henrik Hartmann, Jesús J. Camarero, Xiuchen Wu, William M. Hammond, Craig D. Allen, Fahu Chen
Forest protection and afforestation have been identified as a means to partially offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Yet, increasingly frequent observations of drought-induced tree mortality are reported. Here, we applied a risk analysis framework for global drought-induced forest mortality by examining extreme reductions in greenness and water content of forest canopies during past mortality events
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Seaweed as a Resilient Food Solution After a Nuclear War Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-09 Florian Ulrich Jehn, Farrah Jasmine Dingal, Aron Mill, Cheryl Harrison, Ekaterina Ilin, Michael Y. Roleda, Scott C. James, David Denkenberger
Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios such as a nuclear winter caused by the burning of cities in a nuclear war, an asteroid/comet impact or an eruption of a large volcano inject large amounts of particles in the atmosphere, which limit sunlight. This could decimate agriculture as it is practiced today. We therefore need resilient food sources for such an event. One promising candidate is seaweed, as
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Understanding the Influence of Urban Form on the Spatial Pattern of Precipitation Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-08 Yanle Lu, Zhou Yu, John D. Albertson, Haonan Chen, Leiqiu Hu, Angeline Pendergrass, Xiaodong Chen, Qi Li
Urban areas are known to modify the spatial pattern of precipitation climatology. Existing observational evidence suggests that precipitation can be enhanced downwind of a city. Among the proposed mechanisms, the thermodynamic and aerodynamic processes in the urban lower atmosphere interact with the meteorological conditions and can play a key role in determining the resulting precipitation patterns
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Changing Climate Threatens Irrigation Benefits of Maize Gross Primary Productivity in China Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-04 Dehai Liao, Jun Niu, Philippe Ciais, Taisheng Du, Baozhong Zhang, Shaozhong Kang
Intensive irrigation has been proven to profoundly impact climate through the surface energy budget. However, the impacts of irrigation and climate interactions on gross primary productivity (GPP) in maize cultivated areas remain uncertain. Here we quantified the irrigation effects on maize GPP (∆GPP) across China by combining a land surface model and a light-use efficiency model and using satellite-based
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Responses of Ecosystem Productivity to Anthropogenic Ozone and Aerosols at the 2060 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-05 Xinyi Zhou, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian
Terrestrial ecosystems help mitigate global warming by sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) through plant photosynthesis, the rate of which is affected by surface ozone (O3) and aerosols under simultaneous impacts of climate change and rising CO2. While the changes in anthropogenic emissions perturb atmospheric components, their consequent impacts on ecosystem productivity in the future climate
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Intensified Structural Overshoot Aggravates Drought Impacts on Dryland Ecosystems Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-02 Yixuan Zhang, Liu Liu, Yongming Cheng, Shaozhong Kang, Hao Li, Lixin Wang, Yu Shi, Xingcai Liu, Lei Cheng
A favorable environment can induce vegetation overgrowth to exceed the ecosystem carrying capacity, exacerbating water resource depletion and increasing the risk of lagged effects on vegetation degradation. This phenomenon is defined as structural overshoot, which can lead to large-scale forest mortality and grassland deterioration. However, the current understanding of structural overshoot remains
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Role of Atlantification in Enhanced Primary Productivity in the Barents Sea Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-02 Kyung-Min Noh, Ji-Hoon Oh, Hyung-Gyu Lim, Hajoon Song, Jong-Seong Kug
Recent changes in the Arctic sea-ice are strongly influenced by the recent increase in heat transport from vigorous Atlantic inflows, so-called Atlantification. This Atlantification can induce physical and ecological changes near the Atlantic gateway. Here, we used the observational data sets and 26 Earth system models to estimate Atlantic water intrusion, and firstly suggest the impact of Atlantification
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A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-02 Hu Li, Xiaoduo Pan, Rana Muhammad Ali Washakh, Xiaowei Nie
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high-altitude in the mid-latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco-hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled
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Research Gaps and Priorities for Terrestrial Water and Earth System Connections From Catchment to Global Scale Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-01-02 Mohanna Zarei, Georgia Destouni
The out-of-sight groundwater and visible but much less extensive surface waters on land constitute a linked terrestrial water system around the planet. Research is crucial for our understanding of these terrestrial water system links and interactions with other geosystems and key challenges of Earth System change. This study uses a scoping review approach to discuss and identify topical, methodological
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The Future in Anthropocene Science Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2023-12-28 P. W. Keys, L. Badia, R. Warrier
The Anthropocene is the present time of human-caused accelerating global change, and new forms of Anthropocene risk are emerging that society has hitherto never experienced. Science and policy are grappling with the temporal and spatial magnitude of these changes. However, there is a gap in the transparency—and perhaps even in the awareness—of the profound role that Anthropocene science plays in shaping
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Issue Information Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2023-12-27
No abstract is available for this article.