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Ready, set, go! An anticipatory action system against droughts Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, Rogério Bonifácio
Abstract. The World Food Programme, in collaboration with the Mozambique National Meteorology Institute, is partnering with several governmental and non-governmental organizations to establish an advanced early warning system for droughts in pilot districts across Mozambique. This warning system, named "Ready, Set & Go!", aims to proactively address impending droughts by setting predefined thresholds
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Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, Minghui Meng
Abstract. Rock bridges, also known as locking masses in landslides, affect the three-dimensional (3D) stability and deformation patterns of landslides. However, it is always difficult to simulate rock bridges with continuous grid models in 3D landslides due to their discontinuous deformations. Tizicao landslide, located in Maoxian County, southwest China, is a typical landslide with a super-large rock
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New insights into combined surfzone and estuarine bathing hazards Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, Steve Instance
Abstract. Rip currents are the single largest cause of beach safety incidents globally, but where an estuary mouth intersects a beach, additional flows are created that can exceed the speed of a typical rip current, significantly increasing the hazard level for bathers. However, there is a paucity of observations of surfzone currents at estuary mouth beaches, and our understanding and ability to predict
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Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-14 Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, Eric Strobl
Abstract. Extreme rainfall events frequently cause hazardous floods in many parts of the world. With growing human exposure to floods, studying conditions that trigger floods is imperative. Flash floods, in particular, require well-defined models for the timely warning of the population at risk. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a common way to characterize rainfall and flood events. Here
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Algorithmically Detected Rain-on-Snow Flood Events in Different Climate Datasets: A Case Study of the Susquehanna River Basin Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-14 Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, Rachel R. McCrary
Abstract. Rain-on-snow (RoS) events in regions of ephemeral snowpack – such as the northeastern United States – can be key drivers of cool-season flooding. We describe an automated algorithm for detecting basin-scale RoS events in gridded climate data by generating an area-averaged time-series and then searching for periods of concurrent precipitation, surface runoff, and snowmelt exceeding pre-defined
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Brief Communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Alexandre Dunant, Amy L. Johnson, Erin L. Harvey, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Simon J. Dadson, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Anuradha Puri, Nick J. Rosser
Abstract. Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. Exposure maps can be constructed from building databases, akin to seismic risk assessments, but there has been little investigation of the predictive relationship between building damage and risk to human life from landslides. Our study investigates this relationship globally and in Nepal (47,213 and 5
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An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, David N. Bresch
Abstract. Severe hailstorms result in substantial damage to buildings and vehicles, necessitating the quantification of associated risks. Here, we present a novel open-source hail damage model for buildings and cars based on single-polarization radar data and 250 000 geolocated hail damage reports in Switzerland from 2002 to 2021. To this end, we conduct a detailed evaluation of different radar-based
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Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, Luigi Lombardo
Abstract. Until now, a full numerical description of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a landslide could be achieved only via physically based models. The part of the geoscientific community in developing data-driven models has instead focused on predicting where landslides may occur via susceptibility models. Moreover, they have estimate when landslides may occur via models that belong to the early-warning
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Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, Zhi Liu
Abstract. Using the peak ground acceleration (PGA) under four exceedance probabilities calculated via a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method for China, the probability density function of PGA was obtained by fitting with the Cornell seismic hazard exceedance probability PGA function model. Combined with the seismic fragility function of the water supply system calculated on the basis of the
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Volcano Tsunamis and their effects on moored vessels safety: The 2022 Tonga event Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, Maria A. Baptista
Abstract. The violent explosion of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022, was the origin of an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT), both of which were recorded worldwide. The Tonga tsunami event caused resonance effects, leading to wave amplification in some far-field coastal areas like La Pampilla port in Callao, Peru, 10,000 km away from the volcano, where
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Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, Duane Waliser
Abstract. The global increase in atmospheric water vapor due to climate change tends to heighten the dangers associated with both humid heat and heavy precipitation. Process-linked connections between these two extremes, particularly those which cause them to occur close together in space or time, are of special concern for impacts. Here we investigate how atmospheric rivers relate to the risk of summertime
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Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, Wenfei Mao
Abstract. A magnitude 6.8 strike-slip earthquake (EQ) struck Luding, Sichuan Province, China, on 5 September 2022, resulting in significant damage to nearby Ganzi Prefecture and the city of Ya'an. In this research, the near-surface atmospheric electric field (AEF) recorded at four sites 15 d before the Luding EQ was analyzed and differentiated, and multisource auxiliary data including precipitation
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Glide-snow avalanches: A mechanical, threshold-based release area model Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, Peter Lehmann
Abstract. Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground-snow interface due to a loss in basal friction. They pose a threat to infrastructure because of the combination of unreliable mitigation measures, limited forecasting capabilities, and a lack of understanding of the release process. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of spatial variability in basal friction and snowpack properties
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Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, Matthew D. Piggott
Abstract. The Maldives face the threat of tsunamis from a multitude of sources. However, the limited availability of critical data, such as bathymetry (a recurrent problem for many island nations), has meant that the impact of these threats has not been studied at an island scale. Conducting studies of tsunami propagation at the island scale but across multiple atolls is also a challenging task due
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Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, Nicolaj K. Larsen
Abstract. The Vaigat strait (Sullorsuaq) in West Greenland is well known for its susceptibility to landslides and historical landslide-generated tsunamis. Recent mapping of the seabed in the Vaigat strait has revealed several prehistoric giga-scale (volumes of 109 m3) tsunamigenic landslides. However, the timing of these giga-scale tsunamis is largely unconstrained, but they are assumed to have occurred
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Precursors and pathways: Dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, Christian Grams
Abstract. The ever-increasing complexity and data volumes of numerical weather prediction demands innovations in the analysis and synthesis of operational forecast data. Here we show how dynamical thinking can offer directly applicable forecast information, taking as a case study the extreme north Italian flooding of May 2023. We compare this event with historical north Italian rainfall events – in
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Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg
Abstract. Prolonged deficit of soil moisture can result in significant ecosystem and economical losses. General slowdown of vegetation growth and development, withering of foliage cover, reduction of carbon, nutrients and water cycling, increase of fire and insect outbreaks are just a few examples of soil moisture drought impacts. Thus, an early and timely warning via monitoring and forecast could
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Tsunami hazard perception and knowledge of alert: early findings in five municipalities along the French Mediterranean coastlines Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Johnny Douvinet, Noé Carles, Pierre Foulquier, Matthieu Peroche
Abstract. Along the French Mediterranean coastlines, most of the studies dealing with tsunamis have focused on hazards, evacuations, or effects of awareness actions, as opposed to hazard perception and knowledge of alert declared locally by the population. To bridge this gap, in this study, data collection yielded 750 responses coming from 150 people living and/or working in the tsunami evacuation
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Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, Emma K. Raven
Abstract. Local stakeholders need information about areas exposed to potential flooding to manage increasing disaster risk. Moderate- and large-scale flood hazard mapping is often produced at a low spatial resolution, typically using only one source of flooding (e.g., riverine), and it often fails to include climate change. This article assesses flood hazard exposure in the city of Vancouver, Canada
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A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, Fan Zu
Abstract. Fog, rain, snow, and icing are considered to be the high-impact weather events often lead to the highway blockings, which in turn causes serious economic and human losses. At present, there is no clear calculation method for the severity of highway blocking which is related to highway load degree and economic losses. Therefore, the goal of this work is to develop a method to be used to assess
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Dependence Models for Multi-Hazard-Events Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Abstract. In recent years, the focus of research about natural hazards has turned from single-hazard studies to multi-hazard ones. While single hazards (like earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc.) have been extensively studied in the past and many quantitative statements about intensities and severities are available, quantitative studies about multi-hazards and dependencies are still rare. This paper
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Local floods in Madeira Island between 2009 and 2021. Rainfall analysis and risk assessment in mountain streams Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Sérgio Silva Lopes, Marcelo Fragoso, Eusébio Reis
Abstract. The torrential floods that occurred in December 2020 and January 2021 in villages located mainly on the northern side of Madeira Island, are analysed in comparison with other local scale events that occurred in 2009, 2012 and 2013. The term torrential flood is adopted in this work to designate the hydrogeomorphologic events, characterized by the occurrence of interactions between slope movements
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Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Chiara Arrighi, Alessio Domeneghetti
Abstract. The impacts of floods on environmental assets are often not assessed. In this communication, we reflect on this issue by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The information on the environmental impacts is constructed by collecting data from reports, press releases, and interviews in the aftermath of the events. The most frequently reported
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Insurance loss model vs meteorological loss index – How comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms? Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, Joaquim G. Pinto
Abstract. Windstorms affecting Europe are among the natural hazards with the largest socio-economic impacts. Therefore, many sectors like society, economy or the insurance industry are highly interested in reliable information on associated impacts and losses. There are different metrics to quantify windstorm-related losses, ranging from simple natural hazard databases over loss indices based on meteorological
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Comparison of conditioning factors classification criteria in large scale statistically based landslide susceptibility models Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Marko Sinčić, Sanja Bernat Gazibara, Mauro Rossi, Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
Abstract. The large scale landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA) is an important tool for reducing landslide risk through the application of resulting maps in spatial and urban planning. The existing literature more often deals with LSA modelling techniques and the scientific research very rarely focuses on acquiring relevant thematic and landslide data, necessary to achieve reliable results. Therefore
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Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-27 Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, Andrej Gosar
Abstract. Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling are important inputs into seismic hazard estimates. Although the importance of seismic coupling is often overlooked, it significantly impacts seismic hazard results. We present an estimation of upper and lower seismogenic depth and expected hypocentral depth and seismic coupling in the transition zone between the Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin,
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Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, Li Peng
Abstract. Field investigations and back analyses were conducted on a rockfall hazard. The flexible barrier protection system constructed along the roadside was damaged by the rockfall impact and lost its mitigation ability. Vital physical characteristics such as rockfall trajectory and kinetic energy were presumed based on the data from the aerial survey and the slope digital model. A numerical model
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GIS-based characterization of fault zones in South-Korea using information on seismicity, in-situ stress and slip tendency – Evaluation of respect distances for nuclear waste disposal site screening Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-23 Stefan Bredemeyer, Jeoung Seok Yoon, Linmao Xie, Jeong-Hwan Lee
Abstract. Identification of seismically active fault zones and the definition of sufficiently large respect distances from these faults which enable avoiding the damaged rock zone surrounding the ruptured ground commonly are amongst the first steps to take in the geoscientific evaluation of sites suitable for nuclear waste disposal. In this work we present a GIS-based approach, using the earthquake-epicentre
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Storm damage beyond wind speed – Impacts of wind characteristics and other meteorological factors on tree fall along railway lines Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-23 Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, Schmitz Benjamin
Abstract. Strong winter wind storms can lead to billions in forestry losses, disrupt train services and amount to millions of Euro spend on vegetation management alongside the German railway system. Therefore, understanding the link between tree fall and wind is crucial. Existing tree fall studies often emphasize tree and soil factors more than meteorology. Using a dataset from Deutsche Bahn (2017–2021)
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A modelled multi-decadal hailday time series for Switzerland Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-23 Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, Olivia Martius
Abstract. In Switzerland, hail is one of the costliest natural hazards, causing extensive damage to agriculture, cars, and infrastructure each year. In a warming climate, hail frequency and its patterns of occurrence are expected to change, which is why understanding the long-term variability and its drivers is essential. Therefore, this study presents new multidecadal daily hail time series for Northern
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InSAR-Informed In-Situ Monitoring for Deep-Seated Landslides: Insights from El Forn (Andorra) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-23 Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, Manolis Veveakis
Abstract. Monitoring deep-seated landslides via borehole instrumentation can be an expensive and labor-intensive task. This work focuses on assessing the fidelity of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) as it relates to subsurface ground motion monitoring, as well as understanding uncertainty in modeling active landslide displacement for the case study of the in-situ monitored El Forn deep-seated
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How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-21 Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, Ricardo M. Trigo
Abstract. The floods that struck the lower Tagus valley in February 1979 correspond to the most intense floods in this river and affected the largest number of people in a river flow event in Portugal during the last 150 years. In fact, the vast area affected significantly impacted circa 10 000 people in the lower Tagus sector (and an additional 7000 in other regions of Portugal), including thousands
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A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact-drivers in the context of food security Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-21 Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Abstract. Understanding how physical climate-related hazards affect food production requires transforming climate data into relevant information for regional risk assessment. Data-driven methods can bridge this gap; however, more development must be done to create interpretable models, emphasizing regions lacking data availability. The main objective of this article was to evaluate the impact of climate
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Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping through Copula Bayesian Multi-Modelling of Precipitation Products Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-21 Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, Hamid Moradkhani
Abstract. Accurate prediction and assessment of extreme flood events are crucial for effective disaster preparedness, response, and mitigation strategies. One crucial factor influencing the intensity and magnitude of extreme flood events is precipitation. Precipitation patterns, particularly during intense weather phenomena such as hurricanes, can play a significant role in triggering widespread flooding
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Investigation of geomagnetic field variations in search of seismo-electromagnetic emissions associated with earthquakes in subduction zone of Andaman-Nicobar, India Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Rahul Prajapati, Kusumita Arora
Abstract. The study of seismo-electromagnetic (EM) emissions has the potential to provide new insights into the physics of seismic activity and improve our ability to monitor and predict earthquakes and other geophysical events. Continuous recording and monitoring of EM fields in seismically active areas are very complex, but it can open a new regime in the field of earthquake prediction. In this study
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Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, Maarten Van Daele
Abstract. Chilean Patagonia is confronted with several geohazards due to its tectonic setting, i.e., the presence of a subduction zone and numerous fault zones (e.g. the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone). This region has therefore been the subject of numerous paleoseismological studies. However, this study reveals that the seismic hazard is not limited to these large tectonic structures by identifying past
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Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben
Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception and management of droughts and their impacts is often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this
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An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-19 Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, Charles Markham
Abstract. Climate change and land-use changes are projected to make wildfires more frequent and intense, with a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14 % by 2030, 30 % by the end of 2050 and 50 % by the end of the century (Sullivan et al., 2022). This latest information has increased interest of how the large scale, often catastrophic, events can be reduced and more effectively managed. One critical
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Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-16 Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica
Abstract. Scientists from different disciplines at ETH Zurich are developing a dynamic, harmonised, and user-centred earthquake risk framework for Switzerland, relying on a continuously evolving earthquake catalogue generated by the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) using the national seismic networks. This framework uses all available information to assess seismic risk at various stages and facilitates
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Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-15 Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, Pham Khanh Nam
Abstract. Flooding is an endemic global challenge with annual damages totalling billions of dollars. Impacts are felt most acutely in low- and middle-income countries, where rapid demographic change is driving increased exposure. These areas also tend to lack high-precision hazard mapping data with which to better understand or manage risk. To address this information gap a number of global flood models
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Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-15 Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, George Pankiewicz
Abstract. The Maritime Continent (MC) regularly experiences powerful convective storms that produce intense rainfall, flooding and landslides, which numerical weather prediction models struggle to forecast. Nowcasting uses observations to make more accurate predictions of convective activity over short timescales (∼ 0–6 h). Optical flow algorithms are effective nowcasting methods as they are able to
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Converging Human Intelligence with AI Systems to Advance Flood Evacuation Decision Making Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-15 Rishav Karanjit, Vidya Samadi, Amanda Hughes, Pamela Murray-Tuite, Keri Stephens
Abstract. The powers that artificial intelligence (AI) has developed are impressive, with recent success in leveraging human expertise at various stages of model development. AI can attain its full potential only if, as part of its intelligence, it also actively teams with humans to co-create solutions. Combining AI simulation with human intelligence through data convergence can improve decision-making
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CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, Laura Longoni
Abstract. This work presents the new model called CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment), a tool for geo-hydrological hazard evaluation. CRHyME is a physically based and spatially distributed model written in the Python language that represents an extension of the classic hydrological models working at the basin scale. CRHyME's main focus consists of simulating rainfall-induced
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Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Lidia Gaslikova
Abstract. Century reanalysis models offer a possibility to investigate extreme events and gain further insights into their impact through numerical experiments. This paper is a comprehensive summary of historical hazardous storm tides in the German Bight (southern North Sea) with the aim of comparing and evaluating the potential of different century reanalysis data to be used for the reconstruction
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Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, Sumit Sen
Abstract. Debris flows triggered by rainfall are catastrophic geohazards that occur compounded during extreme events. Few early warning systems for shallow landslides and debris flows at the territorial scale use thresholds of rainfall intensity–duration (ID). ID thresholds are mostly defined using hourly rainfall. Due to instrumental and operational challenges, current early warning systems have difficulty
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The role of citizen science to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, Antonio Parodi
Abstract. Climate change in the Mediterranean region is evidenced by an increase in average air temperature and a variation in rainfall regime: the value of cumulated annual rainfall seems to be basically constant, however, rainfall of maximum intensity and short duration, between 1 and 24 hours, is increasing, especially in the period between late summer and early autumn. The associated ground effects
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Thunderstorm characteristics with lightning jumps and dives in satellite-based nowcasting Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-12 Felix Erdmann, Dieter Roel Poelman
Abstract. The first Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellite was launched in December 2022. Its high resolution Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) in combination with the Lightning Imager (LI) herald a new period for geostationary (GEO) weather observations over Europe, Africa, and adjacent regions. Similar instruments are already operational over the U.S., with the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABIs) and
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The cascading effect of wildfires on flood risk: a study case in Ebro River basin Spain Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-12 Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Maria del Pozo Garcia
Abstract. Climate change increases the risk of wildfires and floods in the Mediterranean region. Yet, wildfire hazards are often overlooked in flood risk assessments and treated in isolation even though they can amplify floods. Indeed, by altering the hydrological response of burnt areas, wildfires can lead to increased runoff and cascading impacts. This study aims to comprehensively assess flood risk
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Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-09 Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, Michel Bechtold
Abstract. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological
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Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, Tomoya Abe
Abstract. The 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami inundated the Joban coastal area in the Odaka region of the city of Minamisoma, up to 2818 m from the shoreline. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed from deposits using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the Froude supercritical condition. The DNN inverse model effectively
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Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, Manuela I. Brunner
Abstract. Wildfires have reached an unprecedented scale in the Northern Hemisphere. The summers of 2022 and 2023 demonstrated the destructive power of wildfires, especially in North America and southern Europe. Global warming leads to changes in fire danger. Specifically, fire seasons are assumed to become more extreme and will extend to more temperate regions in northern latitudes in the future. However
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Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID Lightning Location System Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, Wolfgang Schulz
Abstract. Evaluating the risk of lightning strikes to a particular structure typically involves adhering to the guidance outlined in IEC 62305-2. Among the multitude of factors influencing the overall risk, flash density emerges as a crucial parameter. According to its definition, each flash is assigned only one contact point to ground. Nevertheless, it is well known that, on average, flashes exhibit
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Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Andrea Betterle, Peter Salamon
Abstract. Floods are extreme hydrological events that can reshape the landscape, transform entire ecosystems, and alter the relationship of humans and animals with the surrounding environment. Every year, fluvial and coastal floods claim thousands of human lives and cause billions of euros in direct damages and inestimable indirect losses, in both economical and in life-quality terms. Monitoring the
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A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-05 Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, Ettore Fagà
Abstract. Critical infrastructure has a paramount role in socio-economic development, and its disruption can have dramatic consequences for human communities, including cascading impacts. Assessing critical-infrastructure exposure to multiple hazard is therefore of utmost importance for disaster risk reduction purposes. However, past efforts in exposure assessment have predominantly concentrated on
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Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-05 Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, Hannah L. Cloke
Abstract. What’s the worst that could happen? After a flood has devasted communities, those people affected, the news media, and the authorities often say that what happened was beyond our imagination. Imagination encompasses the picturing of a situation in our mind linked with the emotions that we connect with this situation. However, the role imagination actually plays in disasters remains unclear
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Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Abstract. Understanding earthquake phenomena is always challenging. The search for reliable precursors of earthquakes is important but requires systematic and long-time monitoring employing multi-disciplinary techniques. In search of possible precursors, we obtained commercially bottled spring waters dated before and after the earthquakes of 6 February 2023. Hydrogeochemical precursors have been detected
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Research on landslide master control factor identification and susceptibility prediction modelling Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Yin Xing, Yang Chen, Peng Wang, Saipeng Huang, Yunfei Xiang
Abstract. It is important to properly identify the primary control elements of landslide susceptibility because the modelling process and its uncertainties differ between machine learning predictions of susceptibility to landslides. In response to the aforementioned issues, the novel "weight mean method" is suggested to determine more precise landslide master factors. Support vector machine (SVM) and
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Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-05 Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, Daniel Mitchell
Abstract. Flooding associated with Hurricane Maria in 2017 had devastating consequences for lives and livelihoods in Puerto Rico. Yet, an understanding of current and future flood risk on small islands like Puerto Rico is limited. Thus, efforts to build resilience to flooding associated with hurricanes remain constrained. Here, we take an event set of hurricane rainfall estimates from a synthetic hurricane
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Temporal Characteristics and Atmospheric Drivers of Onsets and Terminations of Soil Moisture Droughts in Europe Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-05 Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, Daniel Kennedy
Abstract. Many studies have focused on understanding the drivers of soil moisture droughts in Europe when the events have already intensified. Still, how atmospheric circulation changes throughout the entire life cycle of droughts, particularly during the transition periods to drought initiation and termination, has not been thoroughly investigated. Therefore, this study investigates temporal characteristics
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High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-02 Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, Jana Sillmann
Abstract. Heat stress in cities is projected to strongly increase due to climate change. The associated health risks will be exacerbated by the high population density in cities and the urban heat island effect. However, impacts are still uncertain, which is among other factors due to the existence of multiple metrics for quantifying ambient heat and the typically rather coarse spatial resolution of