Dynamical downscaling generally performs poorly on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), due to the region’s complex topography and several aspects of model physics, especially convection and land surface processes. This study investigated the effects of the cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) and land-surface hydrology scheme (LSHS) on TP climate simulation during the wet season using the RegCM4 regional climate

New observational evidence for variability of the atmospheric response to wintertime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found. Using different approaches and datasets, a weakening in the recent ENSO teleconnection over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region is demonstrated. Changes in both pattern and strength of the teleconnection indicate a turning point in the 1970s with a shift from a response

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric

Declining winter rainfall coupled with recent prolonged drought poses significant risks to water resources and agriculture across southern Australia. While rainfall declines over recent decades are largely consistent with modelled climate change scenarios, particularly for southwest Australia, the significance of these declines is yet to be assessed within the context of long-term hydroclimatic variability

Deuterium excess (d-excess), as a secondary parameter of water stable isotopes, inherits the meteorological information from moisture source to the site of interest. Understanding the climatic implications of d-excess in ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is critical for reconstructing the paleoclimate. Here we present an annually-dated ice core record retrieved from the central TP and analyze

The dominant modes of convection (vertical motion) in the tropical convective regions were explored using the EOF analysis method and the ERA-interim reanalysis data, with an emphasis on comparing their roles in transporting moisture and moist static energy (MSE). Two major types of convection orthogonal to each other were identified in the deep tropics, including deep and shallow convection. The deep

The land–atmosphere interaction has been considered one of the most important part for weather prediction and climate modeling. To evaluate the uncertainty coming from land surface models (LSMs) and land use (LU) data in WRF simulated climatology over China, we have conducted fifteen 10-year simulations from 1996 to 2005 with three LSMs (NOAH, CLM and RUC) and five LU data sets (MODIS, HYDE, HH, RF

The western North Pacific (WNP) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is the strongest over the globe, its prediction is the cornerstone for subseasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon. Yet, our understanding of the diversity of the WNP ISO is limited, which challenges our modeling and prediction efforts. We study the diversity of observed WNP ISO by performing cluster analysis on propagation patterns

Summer (June–August) heat waves in North China are found to be either primarily dry or moist, based on surface meteorological observations. This study characterizes synoptic circulation patterns (i.e., 500 hPa geopotential height) using the self-organizing map (SOM) method and investigates the influence of synoptic circulation patterns on these two types of heat waves. Results show that regional dry

Understanding the relationships between large-scale, low-frequency climate variability modes, fire weather conditions and lighting-ignited wildfires has implications for fire-weather prediction, fire management and conservation. This article proposes a Bayesian network framework for quantifying the influence of climate modes on fire weather conditions and occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires.

Using observations and reanalysis, we develop a robust statistical approach based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to explore the leading drivers of decadal and longer-term Mediterranean hydroclimate variability during the historical, half-year wet season. Accordingly, a series of CCA analyses are conducted with combined, multi-component large-scale drivers of Mediterranean precipitation and

Accumulation of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) over the Asian continent is a recognized feature during the boreal summer monsoon. While there has been a debate on the role of monsoon convective intensities on the UT/LS water vapor accumulations, there are ambiguities with regard to the effects of organized monsoon convection on the spatial distribution of water vapor

To explore the driving mechanisms of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the output from a suite of numerical experiments with different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPs) under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-East Asia (CORDEX-EA-II) project is examined. Results show that all experiments can broadly capture the observed temperature distributions

A collection of 10 high-impact extreme precipitation events occurring in Southeastern South America during the warm season has been analyzed using statistical (ESD) and dynamical downscaling approaches. Regional Climate Models from the CORDEX database for the South American domain at two horizontal resolutions, 50 km and 25 km, short-term simulations at 20 km and at 4 km convective-permitting resolution

The present study employed the latest high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4), driven by MPI-ESM-MR boundary conditions from the CORDEX-CORE South Asia framework to investigate the possible projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation and their associated dynamics during near future (NF; 2041–2060) and far future (FF; 2080–2099)

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) is the inertial meandering jet formed by the convergence of the Kuroshio and Oyashio currents in the Northern Pacific. It is widely mentioned in the literature that the KE variability is bimodal on interannual to decadal time scale. The nature of this low frequency variability (LFV) is still under debate; intrinsic oceanic mechanisms are known to play a fundamental role

The impact of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) frequency in the model initialization on the prediction of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model. Three sets of hindcast experiments initialized by the observed monthly, weekly and daily SST data (referred to as the Exp_MSST

The frequently observed tropospheric warm cores over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique climate phenomena and are crucial to the Asian summer monsoon development. However, their climatological structure and formation mechanisms remain elusive and inconsistent among previous studies. In this work, two vertically separated warm cores, the upper-level warm cores (ULWCs) and lower-level warm cores (LLWCs)

Climate extremes can severely impact socio-economic development. Climate trends of three temperature and three precipitation climate indices were evaluated in observational data, 23 models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5), and 20 models from CMIP6. The climate indices were calculated over the whole of China, and individually over the basins of its three major rivers. The

The atmospheric concentration of persistent organic pollutants (and of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, PAHs, in particular) is closely related to climate change and climatic fluctuations, which are likely to influence contaminant’s transport pathways and transfer processes. Predicting how climate variability alters PAHs concentrations in the atmosphere still poses an exceptional challenge. In this

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur over the western and central equatorial Pacific are believed to play an important role in ENSO dynamics; however, the mechanisms of WWB generation are still debated. In this study we investigate a link between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and WWBs that involves tropical cyclones (TCs) generated within the MJO sufficiently close to the equator. Using an

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05756-2

Studies related to the combined effect of different atmospheric oscillations on the ocean surface waves are limited. The present study focuses on the change in wave climatology due to the combined effect of Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 40 years of reanalysis data on the Asian Summer Monsoon Region (ASMR). Composite analysis of surface

Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are important rainfall producers over the Tibetan Plateau in summer and can also influence wide areas east of the Tibetan Plateau when emigrating from the plateau. The Effects of the variations in air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau on the genesis frequency of TPVs at interannual timescales is explored in this work to understand the interannual variations in TPVs

The influence of early spring sea ice at Barents Sea on midsummer rainfall in Northeast China (NEC) is identified based on observational analyses and atmospheric modeling experiments in this study. Increased sea ice area (SIA) in the Barents Sea is ensued by positive rainfall anomalies at north of NEC and by negative anomalies at south, and vice verse. Specifically, due to a good seasonal persistence

Rainfall is one of the most influential climatic factors on regional development and environment, and changes in rainfall intensity are of specific concern. In the Huaihe River Valley (HRV), heavy rainfall is a primary trigger of floods. However, the difference in the origin of moisture contributed to heavy rainfall and light rainfall is rarely studied and not entirely understood. This study analyzes

The South Atlantic subtropical underwater (STUW) is a high-salinity water mass formed by subduction within the subtropical gyre. It is a major component of the subtropical cell and affects stratification in the downstream direction due to its high salinity characteristics. Understanding the interannual variability in STUW subduction is essential for quantifying the impact of subtropical variability

Summer precipitation totals in the Alpine Region do not exhibit a systematic trend over the last 120 years. However, we find significant low frequency periodicity of interannual variability which occurs in synchronization with a dominant two-phase state of the atmospheric circulation over the Alps. Enhanced meridional flow increases precipitation variability through positive soil moisture precipitation

The regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) was used to downscale the NCAR Community Climate System Model V4.0 (CCSM4) projection of China precipitation changes from the present (1974–2005) to future (2019–2050) under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The CWRF downscaling at 30-km improved CCSM4 in capturing observed key precipitation spatiotemporal characteristics, correcting

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of \(\sim \)3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The

The present paper investigates changes in the feedback of Indian Ocean warming on the western Pacific by using observational data and model experiments. It is found that the relationship between easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and Indian Ocean warming during the mature and decaying phases of El Niño has changed since 1994. Before 1994, when El Niño reached its peak in the

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05750-8

Long-term behaviour of sea-level rise is an important factor in assessing the impact of climate change on multi-century timescales. Under the stabilisation scenario RCP4.5, Sterodynamic Sea-Level (SdynSL) and ocean density change in the CMIP5 models exhibit distinct patterns over the periods before and after Radiative Forcing (RF) stabilisation (2000–2070 vs. 2100–2300). The stabilisation pattern is

Over time scales between 10 days and 10–20 years—the macroweather regime—atmospheric fields, including the temperature, respect statistical scale symmetries, such as power-law correlations, that imply the existence of a huge memory in the system that can be exploited for long-term forecasts. The Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) is a stochastic model that exploits these

The high latitudes are a hotspot for past and future climate change as forced climate signals have begun to emerge from internal variability in recent decades. New tools, such as initial condition large ensembles, provide a simulated range of possible climate realities that allow for separating the externally forced and internally variable components of the climate system. In addition, interactions

The frequency and spatial distributions of precipitation extremes (PEs) and deep convective clouds (DCC) across the Amazon region were assessed using satellite-derived data. For PEs, CHIRPS dataset for the period 1981–2018 were used to calculate a set of absolute, threshold, duration, and percentile-based threshold indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. DCC occurrence

This study investigates the impact of sea ice and snow changes on surface air temperature (SAT) trends on the multidecadal time scale over the mid- and high-latitudes of Eurasia during boreal autumn, winter and spring based on a 30-member ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A dynamical adjustment method is used to remove the internal component of circulation-induced SAT

This study presents the results of high-resolution dynamical downscaling of 5 km on maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) air temperature and precipitation, for Greece, with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis dataset is used for initial and boundary conditions. The model results (WRF_5) are evaluated against available ground observations for the period 1980–2004

Arctic amplification refers to the greater surface warming of the Arctic than of other regions during recent decades. A similar phenomenon occurs in the troposphere and is termed “tropospheric Arctic amplification” (TAA). The poleward eddy heat flux and eddy moisture flux are critical to Arctic warming. In this study, we investigate the synoptic transient eddy activity over the North Pacific associated

The urban environment directly influences Urban Boundary Layer (UBL) dynamics. Commonly proposed heat adaptation strategies focused on reducing the impacts of global change and urban induced warming are also expected to decrease the intensity of convective mixing thereby reducing UBL depth, with important consequences for air pollutant dilution and dispersion. We use 20-km grid spacing Regional Climate

The main features of daily extreme precipitation and circulation types in southern South America (SSA) were evaluated and compared in both multiple observational datasets (rain gauges, CHIRPS, CPC and MSWEP) and simulations from four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by ERA-Interim during 1980–2010. The inter-comparison of extreme events, characterised in terms of their intensity, frequency and

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) at interseasonal to interannual time scales. Given the heterogeneity in rainfall patterns over India, we have revisited the linkages between El Niño and ISM for the period 1600–2016 in this study. Our analysis based on the instrumental, paleo-proxy, model and satellite data sets show significant spatiotemporal variation in the

Recently there has been an increase in interest in hemispheric-scale teleconnections. The circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CGT) is a special zonal phase of the jet whereby disturbances originating near the South Asian jet entrance, or within the jet, remain trapped and can propagate around the globe. Recent studies have shown that this CGT pattern affects climatic conditions across the entire hemisphere

Recent studies have shown that the Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) can significantly influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In an earlier study, we proposed that AZM influence propagates in tropospheric temperature as Kelvin wave-like features to the east to reach the Indian Ocean and influences the monsoon by modulating the mid-tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient and thereby the seasonal mean flow

The autumn precipitation over the Sichuan Basin (APSB) experienced a significant wet-to-dry shift around the mid-1980s during the 1961–2010 period. Thus, the dataset is divided into two subperiods, 1961–1985 (P1) and 1986–2010 (P2), which are denoted as the wet period and dry period, respectively. The possible mechanisms accounting for the wet-to-dry shift in the APSB are investigated using both observational

A recently assembled South China Sea Physical Oceanographic Dataset provides the first observational evidence for mixed layer salinity changes in the South China Sea from 1960 to 2015. During this period, the mixed layer waters freshened by 0.22 psu. The mixed layer salinity variability is found to be in sync with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation; it freshened in the 1960s, started to salinify in 1974

Seasonal predictions in the Mediterranean region have relevant socio-economic implications, especially in the context of a changing climate. To date, sources of predictability have not been sufficiently investigated at the seasonal scale in this region. To fill this gap, we explore sources of predictability using a weather regimes (WRs) framework. The role of WRs in influencing regional weather patterns

Although the impact of the extratropical Pacific signal on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has attracted increasing concern, the impact of Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM)-related signals from outside the southern Pacific Basin on the equatorial sea temperature has received less attention. This study explores the lead correlation between the April–May (AM) SAM and central tropical Pacific sea

Cumulative emissions accounting for carbon-dioxide (\(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)) is founded on recognition that global warming in earth system models is roughly proportional to cumulative \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions, regardless of emissions pathway. However, cumulative emissions accounting only requires the graph between global warming and cumulative emissions to be approximately independent of emissions pathway

The mechanisms of the propagation and maintenance of the South Asian jet wave train are investigated in this study by examining the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) balance along the wave train. The intensity and evolution of the disturbances along the wave train can be well represented by the variation of EKE centers. The east-to-west discrepancy in the intensity of EKE centers indicates the wave train is

The potential predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter (November–February) is investigated using observational data for the period of 1979–2016. For various MJO indices, nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents are computed to quantify the MJO predictability under the easterly and westerly phases of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (easterly: EQBO and westerly: WQBO). All MJO

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05721-z

The interannual variability of summertime eddy-induced heat transport (EHT) in the western South China Sea (WSCS) is investigated based on the downgradient eddy diffusivity method and explored its formation mechanism. Estimations of long-term mean EHT and its monthly evolution reveal that the largest EHT in the SCS occurs in the WSCS region during the summer. In the WSCS, enhanced EHT and eddy kinetic

Based on the hourly gauge-satellite merged precipitation data with the spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° during 2013 ~ 2018, we have evaluated the performance of the convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University (WRF_NJU) in forecasting the precipitation diurnal variation and the associated atmospheric circulation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding

To provide a long-term context for understanding the “Karakoram Anomaly” in recent glacier studies, we originally aimed to develop an annually resolved multi-century winter–spring precipitation record using tree-ring earlywood cellulose δ18O (δ18OEW) of Pinus wallachina from the Karakoram, northern Pakistan. Out of expectation, winter (January–May) temperature rather than precipitation is found to

Seasonal prediction of South China April to May rainfall is examined based on forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model. El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of predictability, conveyed by the lower tropospheric anomalous western Pacific anticyclone and cyclone for El-Niño and La-Niña respectively. By separating ENSO into its diversity

A crucial step in the application of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to regional climate research is the selection of the proper combinations of physical parameterizations. In this study, we examined the performance of various parametrization schemes in the WRF model in terms of precipitation and temperature over the Haihe river basin in northern China. The WRF experiments were integrated

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is one of the most complicated orographic regions worldwide, and due to the lack of quantitative observations, the different simulation biases are still existing via various climate models over the TP. In this study, a one-summer-month 6-km dynamical downscaling simulation is conducted to evaluate the improvement of the new gravity wave drag (GWD) scheme and cycled assimilation

The sawtooth-patterned glacial-interglacial cycles in the Earth’s atmospheric temperature are a well-known, though poorly understood phenomenon. Pinpointing the relevant mechanisms behind these cycles will not only provide insights into past climate dynamics, but also help predict possible future responses of the Earth system to changing CO\(_2\) levels. Previous work on this phenomenon suggests that