The performance of 20 models participating in the atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) is evaluated concerning surface latent (QLH) and sensible (QSH) heat flux over the tropical oceans (30°S–30°N). Biases were calculated by comparing model fluxes to observations from moored buoys and the objectively analyzed air–sea fluxes (OAFlux) database. All 20 AMIP models overestimate QLH with an

Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric

Northern Chile is a region characterised by an extremely dry climate; however, there is a brief rainy season from December to March (austral summer), mainly above 3000 m a.s.l. It is interesting to consider where the humid air masses that generate such rain come from. For this purpose, daily precipitation data from 161 meteorological stations located in this area (18° S–19° S) were considered, and

Summer precipitation in Thailand is a major resource for water and agriculture. Understanding the decadal variations of summer precipitation is useful for water resource management planning for long-term periods. This study investigates decadal changes in summer precipitation in Thailand. An evident increase in summer precipitation was found after the mid-1990s, and the possible causes have been discussed

An accurate description of changes in extreme rainfall events requires high resolution simulations. Regional climate models (RCMs), where GCM data are used to provide input boundary conditions, are widely used as a way to resolve finer spatial scale phenomena. A problem with this, however, is that the inherent systematic biases within the GCM simulation are transferred to the RCM through the model

Anthropogenic factors continue to warm the oceans by storing sufficient memory of past accumulated effects resulting in higher Sea surface temperature (SST) and Ocean heat content (OHC) invigorating tropical cyclogenesis and tropical cyclone intensity. Prior studies indicate that an increase in accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential, a measure of OHC is directly related to high intense storms

During the South-American Monsoon season, deep convective systems occur at the eastern flank of the Central Andes leading to heavy rainfall and flooding. We investigate the large- and meso-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with extreme discharge events (> 99.9th percentile) observed in two major river catchments meridionally stretching from humid to semi-arid conditions in the southern Central

Diurnal variation of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is a major factor that controls the global radiation balance. This study presents multi-year seasonal mean diurnal variations of longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) and daytime shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) at the top of atmosphere over tropics, derived from the broadband radiation measurements made by ScaRaB/3 onboard the low-inclination

Previous studies have revealed that warm (cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) can enhance (weaken) the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during boreal summer. This study assesses the ability of current atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to simulate such an NTA–WNP connection by using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison

A diagnostic framework is developed to explain the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate in high-resolution global atmospheric models having different complexity of boundary conditions. The framework uses vortex dynamics to identify the large-scale control on the evolution of TC precursors—first non-rotating convective clusters and then weakly rotating seeds. In experiments with perturbed

Spatial and temporal patterns of snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the terrestrial Arctic are analyzed based on multiple observational datasets and an ensemble of CMIP5 models during 1979–2005. For evaluation of historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, we used two reanalysis products, one satellite-observed product and an ensemble

After each of the 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions, an El Niño was observed. The increased likelihood of an El Niño after a tropical eruption has also been found in long-term reconstructed proxy data. Through examining simulations over the last millennium by 11 different models, we show that a tropical volcano eruption can robustly excite a western-to-central equatorial Pacific

This study assesses Arctic cyclone characteristics and associated precipitation and surface wind speeds using an ensemble of regional climate model (GEMCLIM) simulations at 0.5° resolution for the 1981–2099 period following the RCP8.5 scenario. Comparison of GEMCLIM simulation with observations for current climate (1981–2010) suggests that GEMCLIM realistically reproduces the spatial and seasonal variation

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are affected significantly by the climate system and can provide feedbacks. TC activities are important for weather forecasting and climate predictions. Here, we focused on the spatial distribution of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and its seasonal prediction. To predict the ACE distribution over the western North Pacific (WNP) in autumn, we established a physical-empirical

As a potential source of multiweek predictability, we investigate impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on temperature extremes during Austral winter using observational data analysis. We find a significant MJO influence on weekly mean minimum temperatures across much of northern and eastern Australia, with lower than normal minimum temperatures tending to occur during MJO phases 6 and 7.

The pre-summer rainy season (PSRS; April–June) is the period of most frequent strong precipitation in South China (SC). Persistent strong precipitation events (PSPEs) can cause greater loss of life and property than short-lived strong precipitation. This paper investigates extended-range signals near the tropopause preceding two persistent positive climatological intraseasonal oscillations (PPCISOs)

The realism of a specific configuration of the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) to represent the observed temperature evolution over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in the 1971–2005 period has been analyzed. The E-OBS observational dataset was used for this purpose. Also, the \(\textit{added value}\) of the WRF simulations with respect to the IPSL Earth System Model (ESM) used to drive the WRF RCM was evaluated

It is well recognized that climate predictability has three origins: (i) climate memory (inertia of the climate system) that accumulated from the historical conditions, (ii) responses to external forcings, and (iii) dynamical interactions of multiple processes in the climate system. However, how to systematically identify these predictable sources is still an open question. Here, we combine a recently

Coastal flood mapping associated with tropical cyclone induced extreme water elevations is carried out for the Gujarat and North Maharashtra coasts in the perspective of climate projections for the Arabian Sea. The projections are taken into account by enhancing the present cyclone wind intensity by 7% and 11% based on the IPCC fifth assessment report to study its impact on extreme water elevations

The study of energy flows in the Earth system is essential for understanding current climate change. To understand how energy is accumulating and being distributed within the climate system, an updated reconstruction of energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere, surface and within the atmosphere derived from observations is presented. New satellite and ocean data are combined with an improved methodology

Previous studies indicated that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) could exert marked impacts on the following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM). Here, we examine this winter NPO-ENSO relationship in a 50-member ensemble of historical simulations conducted with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis second generation

The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on the ENSO amplitude was investigated through observational analyses. During the past 90 years the interdecadal variability of ENSO intensity is significantly correlated with the AMO. ENSO variability was strengthened (weakened) during a negative (positive) AMO phase. An ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that the thermocline feedback

The changing characteristics of precipitation extremes under global warming have recently received tremendous attention, yet the mechanisms are still insufficiently understood. The present study attempts to understand these processes over India by separating the ‘dynamic’ and ‘thermodynamic’ components of precipitation extremes using a suite of observed and reanalysis datasets. The former is mainly

Obtaining reliable causal inference is crucial for understanding the climate system. Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a recently developed method to infer causal relationships from time series has been shown to be superior to previous methods which are based on linearity assumptions. However, CCM has so far been only tested on low-dimensional or bivariate models, while real-world systems, like the climate

The study explores the role of ice-phase microphysics and convection for the better simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). Sensitivity experiments have been performed with coupled climate model- CFSv2 using different microphysics (with and without ice phase processes) and convective [Simple Arakawa Schubert (SAS), new SAS (NSAS)] parameterization

Accurate understanding of snow cover phenology and its changes is important to hydrological processes and climate system. Having recognized the potential uncertainties in remote sensing snow cover products, we used daily snow depth observations from 514 meteorological stations across China to investigate the spatiotemporal variations in snow cover phenology during 1970–2014. Climatologically, the snow

Much of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa has been experiencing a severe drought since 2015. This drought has had major socio-economic effects particularly on the large impoverished rural population as well as on some urban areas where supplied water services have broken down in several cases. The region is influenced by both midlatitude and tropical systems leading to a complex regional meteorology

The zonal flow associated with cut-off lows (COLs) comprises two jet streaks of different spatial extents. The smaller scale jet streak, located north of the COLs, forms as a result of meridional divergence of vorticity advection and it is quasi-stationary, relative to the COLs. It dissipates as the COLs do the same. The larger scale jet streak gives rise to anticyclonic and equatorward Rossby wave

This study provides an updated dynamical analysis of the observed climate conditions during the longest, most severe and continuous drought (2012–2016) ever recorded in Northeast Brazil (NEB). This investigation was carried out based on temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperature, outgoing long-wave radiation, and ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1981 to 2016. This was done by first looking

Based on a series of experiments conducted by two regional climate models (RCA4 and LMDZ) with and without soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, we investigate the role of soil moisture on the occurrence of surface air temperature extremes and its persistence in Southeastern South America. Our analysis reveals that both factors, soil moisture-atmosphere coupling and relatively drier soil conditions, enhance

Atmospheric and oceanic parameters derived from global climate model (GCM) simulations have received wide global attention and importance in representing the future world under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. The present study deals with near-surface wind speed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) obtained from CMIP5 and the upcoming CMIP6 GCMs and validation exercise clearly signify improved

The vertical temperature profile in the atmosphere reflects a balance between radiative and convective processes and interactions with the oceanic and land surfaces. Changes in vertical temperature profiles can affect atmospheric stability, which in turn can impact various aspects of weather systems. In this study, we analyzed recent-past trends of temperature over the Australian region using a homogenized

This numerical work aims to better understand the behavior of extreme Adriatic Sea wave storms under projected climate change. In this spirit, 36 characteristic events—22 bora and 14 sirocco storms occurring between 1979 and 2019, were selected and ran in evaluation mode in order to estimate the skill of the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite used in this study and to provide

A new bias-corrected, statistically downscaled product, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset, has been developed and released to help in understanding climate change at local to regional scales. Here, we evaluate the performance of the NEX-GDDP data in simulating daily maximum temperature (TX) and daily minimum temperature (TN) in the historical period 1961–2005

The low-frequency evolution of Indian rainfall mean-state and associated interannual-to-decadal variability is discussed for the last 6000 years from a multi-configuration ensemble of fully coupled global transient simulations. This period is marked by a shift of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) distribution towards drier conditions, including extremes, and a contraction of the rainy season. The

General circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined with respect to their ability to simulate the mean state and variability of the tropical Atlantic and its linkage to the tropical Pacific. While, on average, mean state biases have improved little, relative to the previous intercomparison (CMIP5), there are now a few models with very small biases. In

The future vegetation–climate system over East Asia, as well as its dependence on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), is investigated using a regional climate–vegetation model driven with boundary conditions from Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2. Over most of the region, due to the rising CO2 concentration and climate changes, the model projects greater

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce short-term regional climate simulations with several configurations for the Carpathian Basin region. The goal is to evaluate the performance of the model and analyze its sensitivity to different physical and dynamical settings, and input data. Fifteen experiments were conducted with WRF at 10 km resolution for the year

Object-based algorithm provides additional spatiotemporal information of precipitation, besides traditional aspects such as amount and intensity. Using the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation with Time Dimension (MODE-TD, or MTD), precipitation features in western Canada have been analyzed comprehensively based on the Canadian Precipitation Analysis, North American Regional Reanalysis, Multi-Source

Whether the stratospheric radiative feedback amplifies the global warming remains under debate. The stratospheric water vapor (SWV), one of the primary feedbacks in the stratosphere, is argued to be an important contributor to the global warming. On the other hand, the overall stratospheric feedback, which consists of both the SWV feedback and the stratospheric temperature (ST) feedback, does not amount

The wind stress was erroneously post-processed from the ERA-Interim forecast in our study.

The original article can be found online.

The fundamental mechanisms that explain high subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) decadal predictability within a particular modeling framework are described. The focus is on the Community Earth System Model (CESM), run in both a historical forced-ocean configuration as well as in a fully coupled configuration initialized from the former. The initialized prediction experiments comprise the CESM Decadal Prediction

Variability of Sea-Surface Height (SSH) from ocean dynamic processes is an important component of sea-level change. In this study we dynamically downscale a present-day control simulation of a climate model to replicate sea-level variability in the Northwest European shelf seas. The simulation can reproduce many characteristics of sea-level variability exhibited in tide gauge and satellite altimeter

The characteristic spatial sampling length scales (for example, in the longitudinal direction) to adequately resolve the variability associated with a quantity to be observed, depends on the typical length scales of its variability. For example, if temporal variations in the longitudinal direction are correlated over thousands of Kilometers then an observing network with a similar spatial density may

Global warming and abnormal climate change have resulted in an increase in the frequency of severe heatwave events. Recently, a series of extreme heatwave events have occurred in South Korea, and the damage from these events has also been increasing. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the mechanisms for generating and developing heatwaves. In this study, the long-term trend for heatwave events in South

Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is likely to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to ice-sheet mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR. However, predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from

Neglected High-frequency Variability events of the sea surface Wind Coupled with Precipitation (HV-WCP) events are revealed over the Kuroshio Sea Surface Temperature (SST) front in the East China Sea (ECS) during wintertime. This phenomenon is characterized as modulation events of the surface wind directions, whereby the southerly anomaly changes into a northwest anomaly, accompanied with increasing

The Indian Ocean has warmed rapidly and notably at a faster rate than the other tropical ocean basins in the latter half of the twentieth century. We conduct sensitivity experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model to determine the impact of Indian Ocean surface warming on large-scale global atmospheric circulation trends and rainfall distribution, in terms of its pattern and magnitude

The Tibetan Plateau vortex (TPV) is a mesoscale weather system active in the near-surface layer, which is one of the major systems for the generation of precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, no long-term observations of the TPVs are available due to the scarcity of observations in the TP. Thereby, long-term, high-accuracy reanalysis products are a reliable source for the analysis of characteristic

We quantify the change in extreme high sea level (ESL) statistics in the German Bight under rising \({{\mathrm {CO}}_2}\) concentrations by downscaling a large ensemble of global climate model simulations using the regionally coupled climate system model REMO-MPIOM. While the model setup combines a regionally high resolution with the benefits of a global ocean model, the large ensemble size of 32 members

The intensities of high-frequency (HF) variability with period less than 90 days at different phases of El Niño events were investigated through observational data analysis. A large asymmetry in the HF variability intensity between the developing phase and decaying phase (i.e., pre-peak stage versus post-peak stage) of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño is revealed, while the amplitude and spatial pattern

Under the global warming, the influence of increased CO2 on regional climate change is driven by two main effects: CO2 direct radiation and oceanic warming. Based on the outputs of CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), the present study found that CO2 direct radiation and uniform oceanic warming are mainly responsible for the heat source (HS) enhancement led by increased CO2

Projected changes in near-surface relative humidity (RH) remain highly model-dependent over land and may have been underestimated by the former generation global climate models. Here the focus in on the recent CNRM-CM6-1 model, which shows an enhanced land surface drying in response to quadrupled atmospheric CO2 compared to its CNRM-CM5 predecessor. Atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed sea surface

In the present study, the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology’s Earth System Model is used to investigate irrigation’s general effect on severe and extreme hydrometeorological regimes. Our idealized simulations show a large potential to modulate the magnitude and occurrence frequency of severe and extreme precipitation rates, indicating the possibility to mitigate some of the detrimental effects of

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific and an important modulator of the spatio-temporal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Here, we explore the impact of ENSO during onset (June), peak (July–August) and withdrawal (September) phases of ISMR for the period 1951–2015, by studying the changes in the ENSO-monsoon

In the original publication of the article, there is a three slashes in Fig. 1.

Sensitive parameters of a numerical weather prediction model substantially influence the model prediction. Weather research and forecasting (WRF) model parameters are assigned default values based on theoretical and experimental analysis by the scheme developers. Calibrating the sensitive parameters of the model has the potential to improve model prediction. The objective of this study is to improve

A large uncertainty exists today in quantifying the absorbing aerosol snow darkening effect (SnoDE) and its relative role compared to the direct radiative effect (DRE), especially at the regional scale. Using a regional climate model over an enlarged South Asia Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domain, here we isolate these effects and examine their impacts on the dynamics

The ERA5 reanalysis product has been compared with hourly near-surface wind speed and gust observations across Sweden for 2013–2017. ERA5 shows closer agreement than the previous ERA-Interim reanalysis with regard to both mean wind speed and gust measurements, although significant discrepancies are still found for inland and mountainous regions. Therefore, attempts have been made to improve formulations