样式: 排序: IF: - GO 导出 标记为已读
-
Observing and forecasting the retreat of northern Australia’s rainy season J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Tim Cowan, Emily Hinds, Andrew G. Marshall, Matthew C. Wheeler, Catherine de Burgh-Day
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the northern Australian wet season extends through to April, which also formally marks the end of Australia’s tropical cyclone season. Mid-autumn is when the tropical dry season transition period begins, when crop farmers prepare land for annual crops or pasture–fodder harvest, or when beef cattle producers make decisions regarding stock numbers and
-
Application of satellite altimetry for studying the water vapour variability over the tropical Indian Ocean J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2024-01-19 Fathin Nurzaman, Dudy D. Wijaya, Nabila S. E. Putri, Noor N. Abdullah, Brian Bramanto, Zamzam A. J. Tanuwijaya, Wedyanto Kuntjoro, Bambang Setyadji, Dhota Pradipta
Satellite altimetry was originally intended for oceanographic and geodetic applications. An uncommon application of satellite altimetry data, demonstrated in this paper, is for atmospheric study by utilising the onboard microwave radiometer. The Wet Tropospheric Correction (WTC) data from the Topex/Jason altimetry mission series (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2/OSTM and Jason-3) are used, which have
-
Evaluation of seasonal teleconnections to remote drivers of Australian rainfall in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-08-30 Christine Chung, Ghyslaine Boschat, Andréa Taschetto, Sugata Narsey, Shayne McGregor, Agus Santoso, François Delage
This study describes how coupled climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate the primary climate drivers that affect Australian climate, and their seasonal relationship to Australian rainfall, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). As results from the earlier
-
Utilisation FINN data version 2.5 for forecasting PM 2.5 during forest fire 2019 in Sumatra by using WRF–Chem J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-08-17 Prawira Yudha Kombara, Alvin Pratama, Waluyo Eko Cahyono, Wiwiek Setyawati, Emmanuel Adetya, Hana Listi Fitriana
In 2019 there were forest fires in Sumatra, Indonesia, which co-occurred with a strong positive IOD. The forest fire disaster caused the thick smoke containing dusts such as particulate matter with a size of 2.5 μm (PM2.5). In this study, a model simulation was conducted to predict the distribution of PM2.5 using the WRF–Chem model when forest fires in 2019 occurred. The prediction was produced by
-
Channelling flows in the Hunter Valley J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-08-01 Christopher Webb, Jiwon Park
The Hunter Valley is well known for the strong westerly winds in winter and elevated fire danger arising from hot and dry north-westerly winds in summer. These hazards are closely related to the valley channelling in the region, and the connection between the two has been an interest to weather forecasters, emergency service personnel, and the aviation industry. In this paper, the climatology of valley
-
A case study of South Australia’s severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak 28 September 2016 J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Dragana Zovko-Rajak, Kevin J. Tory, Jeffrey D. Kepert
An analysis of the South Australian severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak of 28 September 2016, which produced at least seven tornadoes and contributed to a state-wide power outage, is presented here. Although challenging, prediction and understanding of tornadoes and other hazards associated with severe thunderstorms is very important to forecasters and to community and emergency services preplanning
-
A historical monthly upper-air humidity dataset for Australia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-06-21 Branislava Jovanovic, Robert Smalley, Steven Siems
Monthly humidity (represented as dew point temperature, DWPT) data from 22 land and 5 island Australian upper-air sites were analysed, with trends estimated over the 1965–2017 period at four pressure levels. Humidity data were selected to ensure that data collected under consistent sampling conditions were used (‘modified data’). The quality control process involved examining station metadata and applying
-
Spatiotemporal variability of monthly precipitation concentration in Argentina J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-06-22 María Paula Llano
Studies of the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation concentration are necessary. This variability is a significant climate element and also a critical socioeconomic factor. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of rainfall in Argentina using records of monthly precipitation for 64 stations (period 1991–2021) to calculate the monthly precipitation concentration index (PCI). Precipitation
-
The effect of tidal range and mean sea-level changes on coastal flood hazards at Lakes Entrance, south-east Australia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-05-24 Ben S. Hague, Rodger B. Grayson, Stefan A. Talke, Mitchell T. Black, Dörte Jakob
Despite being well-documented in other countries, the roles that anthropogenically induced changes and natural variability in tidal processes play in modulating coastal flood frequencies have not been investigated in Australia. Here we conduct a brief assessment of changes in tidal variability around Australia. We then apply a simple attribution framework to quantify the separate and joint effects
-
Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (summer 2019–20): a summer of extremes J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-05-11 Naomi Benger, Bernard Chapman
This is a summary of the southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns and meteorological indices for summer 2019–20; an account of seasonal rainfall and temperature for the Australian region is also provided. The antecedent climate conditions and climatic drivers for summer 2019–20 resulted in unprecedented extremes for Australia, with many heat and fire weather extremes. The austral summer
-
Determining the height of deep volcanic eruptions over the tropical western Pacific with Himawari-8 J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-05-10 Chris Lucas
Volcanic eruptions are significant aviation hazards due to the formation of airborne volcanic ash clouds. Further, deep eruptions that reach the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere may have significant weather and climate impacts. A key variable for both dispersion model forecasting for aviation hazards and understanding climate impacts is the volcanic plume height. This work presents a method
-
Impacts of ENSO on Australian rainfall: what not to expect J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-03-22 Carly R. Tozer, James S. Risbey, Didier P. Monselesan, Mike J. Pook, Damien Irving, Nandini Ramesh, Jyoteeshkumar Reddy, Dougal T. Squire
In eastern Australia we expect to experience wet conditions during La Niña and dry during El Niño events. We explore how well these expectations match historical outcomes by assessing, for spring, how much rain fell during past La Niña and El Niño events. We use a tercile framing and find that for rainfall averaged across eastern Australia, La Niña approximately doubles the chance of spring rainfall
-
A wave-driven surface circulation feature in Table Bay J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-03-09 Marc de Vos, Marcello Vichi, Christo Rautenbach
Table Bay, located in the Cape Peninsula region of South Africa, supports a variety of human and ecological interests. Notably it hosts a major port, with significant shipping and smaller maritime activity in and near the bay. Despite this, knowledge of its circulation dynamics remains cursory. In this study, surface gravity waves, particularly those with longer periods and higher wave heights such
-
Indigenous Knowledge of seasons delivers a new way of considering annual cycles in atmospheric dispersion of pollutants J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-02-22 Stephanie Beaupark, Élise-Andrée Guérette, Clare Paton-Walsh, Les Bursill, Scott D. Chambers, Lexodius Dadd, Maddison Miller, Christopher Tobin, Marcus Hughes, Emma Woodward
Poor air quality is recognised as the most important environmental health issue of our time. Meteorological variables like temperature and wind speed can strongly influence air quality and these variables often show clear annual cycles. It is therefore common to analyse atmospheric pollutants within a seasonal framework. However, the commonly used seasons in Australia do not align well with all of
-
Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-02-20 Michael R. Grose, Ghyslaine Boschat, Blair Trewin, Vanessa Round, Linden Ashcroft, Andrew D. King, Sugata Narsey, Edward Hawkins
Mean annual temperature is often used as a benchmark for monitoring climate change and as an indicator of its potential impacts. The Paris Agreement of 2015 aims to keep the global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a preferred limit of 1.5°C. Therefore, there is interest in understanding and examining regional temperature change using this framework of ‘global warming
-
ACCESS-CM2-Chem: evaluation of southern hemisphere ozone and its effect on the Southern Annular Mode J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-02-10 Fraser Dennison, Matthew T. Woodhouse
Chemistry–climate models are important tools for forecasting the evolution of climate. Of particular importance is the simulation of Antarctic ozone depletion due to its effect on the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). In this paper we evaluate the chemistry–climate model ACCESS-CM2-Chem. We find the simulation of stratospheric ozone by ACCESS-CM2-Chem to be significantly improved relative to its predecessor
-
The effect of water currents on wind drag – a case study of tidal currents and sea breeze in a semi-enclosed embayment J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2023-01-06 S. M. Thurgate
The details of how energy and momentum are exchanged at the interface between ocean surface and the atmosphere is complex and the subject of new and more complete models. The need to improve models of how wind interacts with oceans is driven in part by the growth of offshore wind farms, and the need to predict their likely performance. The geographic features of Shark Bay allow several of the factors
-
ACCESS-S2: the upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-12-09 Robin Wedd, Oscar Alves, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Christopher Down, Morwenna Griffiths, Harry H. Hendon, Debra Hudson, Shuhua Li, Eun-Pa Lim, Andrew G. Marshall, Li Shi, Paul Smith, Grant Smith, Claire M. Spillman, Guomin Wang, Matthew C. Wheeler, Hailin Yan, Yonghong Yin, Griffith Young, Mei Zhao, Yi Xiao, Xiaobing Zhou
ACCESS-S2 is a major upgrade to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s multi-week to seasonal prediction system. It was made operational in October 2021, replacing ACCESS-S1. The focus of the upgrade is the addition of a new weakly coupled data assimilation system to provide initial conditions for atmosphere, ocean, land and ice fields. The model is based on the UK Met Office GloSea5-GC2 seasonal prediction
-
Past and future coastal flooding in Pacific Small-Island Nations: insights from the Pacific Sea Level and Geodetic Monitoring (PSLGM) Project tide gauges J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-11-29 Mathilde Ritman, Ben Hague, Tauala Katea, Tavau Vaaia, Arona Ngari, Grant Smith, David Jones, Léna Tolu
Sea level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding globally, and low-lying communities are particularly vulnerable. We present an assessment of historical and projected changes in coastal flooding in 11 Pacific small-island nations, using tide gauge data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We derive impact-, event- and percentile-based thresholds to calculate historical exceedance
-
Synoptic-scale atmospheric cyclones in the South-East Tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) and their relation to IOD variability J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-11-22 Ankit Kavi, Jochen Kämpf
This study focuses on the regional wind variability that controls the intensity of cold-water upwelling off Sumatra – a key feature of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Our analysis of daily atmospheric data reveals the existence of convectively triggered synoptic-scale atmospheric cyclones in the South-East Tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO). The northern branch of the cyclones corresponds to westerly equatorial
-
Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-10-18 Grethel García Bu Bucogen, María Cintia Piccolo, Vanesa Yael Bohn, Gabriel Eduardo Huck
The fundamentals of Chaos theory allow the study of climatic conditions and long-term modifications produced by changes in their spatial and temporal scales. The aim of this work is to analyse the variability and changes produced in the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation in Northern Patagonia, Argentina, applying multifractal analysis as a practical mathematical tool of Chaos theory. Data
-
Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-10-11 Jiangping Zhu, Aihong Xie, Xiang Qin, Bing Xu, Yicheng Wang
Global warming increases the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, but the changes in climate extremes over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during different periods are unknown. Changes in surface temperature extreme indices (TN10p, TX10p, TN90p, TX90p, CSDI, WSDI, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx and DTR) are assessed during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, based on
-
Meteorological drivers of the eastern Victorian Black Summer (2019–2020) fires J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-09-08 Graham Mills, Owen Salkin, Matthew Fearon, Sarah Harris, Timothy Brown, Hauss Reinbold
The spring and summer of 2019–2020 (Black Summer) saw the largest and most significant bushfire outbreak recorded in eastern Australia. In Victoria, the fires ran from mid-November through early autumn. In this paper, we use a high-spatial and temporal resolution 48-year fire weather re-analysis data set (VicClim5) to describe fire weather and vertical wind and stability profiles for five significant
-
Simulations of the Waroona fire using the coupled atmosphere–fire model ACCESS-Fire J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-08-30 Mika Peace, Jesse Greenslade, Hua Ye, Jeffrey D. Kepert
The Waroona fire burned 69 000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. There were two fatalities and 170 homes were lost. Two evening ember storms were reported and pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) cloud developed on consecutive days. The extreme fire behaviour did not reconcile with the near-surface conditions customarily used to assess fire danger. A case study of the fire (Peace et al. 2017) presented the hypothesis
-
A climatology of short-period temperature variations at Australian observation sites J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-08-19 Blair Trewin
The expansion over the last decade of observations in Australia with 1-min temporal resolution allows an assessment of temperature variations over very short periods, using data from 75 stations between 2012 and 2020. The mean difference between the highest and lowest temperatures within 1 min is greatest in the middle of the day, and greater in summer than winter at most locations, except in the northern
-
Forecasting extreme marine heat events in key aquaculture regions around New Zealand J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-03-09 Catherine O. de Burgh-Day, Claire M. Spillman, Grant Smith, Craig L. Stevens
The Tasman Sea has been identified as a climate hotspot and has experienced several marine heatwaves (MHWs) in recent years. These events have impacted coastal regions of New Zealand (NZ), which has had a follow-on effect on local marine and aquaculture industries. Advance warning of extreme marine heat events would enable these industries to mitigate potential losses. Here we present an assessment
-
The Antarctic ozone hole during 2020 J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-03-02 Andrew R. Klekociuk, Matthew B. Tully, Paul B. Krummel, Stuart I. Henderson, Dan Smale, Richard Querel, Sylvia Nichol, Simon P. Alexander, Paul J. Fraser, Gerald Nedoluha
The Antarctic ozone hole remains the focus of scientific attention because of its importance to the health of the biosphere and its influence on the climate of the southern hemisphere. Here we examine the general characteristics of the 2020 Antarctic ozone hole using a variety of observational and reanalysis data and compare and contrast its behaviour with earlier years. The main feature of the 2020
-
CSIRO CAFE-60 submissions to the World Meteorological Organization operational decadal forecasts and the international multi-model data exchange J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-02-22 Mark A. Collier, Terence J. O’Kane, Vassili Kitsios, Paul A. Sandery
The Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) system was developed by the Decadal Climate and Forecasting Project (DCFP) within the CSIRO Climate Science Centre (CSC) with the express purposes of providing operational ensemble forecasts of the near-term climate (1–10 years) and meeting the requirements of becoming a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Data Producing Centre (GDPC) from which
-
APS2-ACCESS-C2: the first Australian operational NWP convection-permitting model J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-02-14 Greg Roff, Ilia Bermous, Gary Dietachmayer, Joan Fernon, Jim Fraser, Wenming Lu, Susan Rennie, Peter Steinle, Yi Xiao
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s ‘Australian Parallel Suite’ (APS) operational numerical weather prediction regional Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) city-based system (APS1 ACCESS-C1) was updated in August 2017 with the commissioning of the APS2 ACCESS-C2. ACCESS-C2 runs over six regional domains. Significant upgrade changes included implementation of Unified
-
Characterising the seasonal nature of meteorological drought onset and termination across Australia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2022-02-08 A. J. Gibson, D. C. Verdon-Kidd, G. R. Hancock
Drought, and its associated impacts, represents one of the costliest natural hazards worldwide, highlighting the need for prediction and preparedness. While advancements have been made in monitoring current droughts, prediction of onset and termination have proven to be much more challenging. This is because drought is unlike any other natural hazard and cannot be characterised by a single weather
-
East coast lows and extratropical transition of tropical cyclones, structures producing severe events and their comparison with mature tropical cyclones J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-12-16 Jeff Callaghan
Examination of events occurring over the last 53 years in the Australian Region have revealed in the minds of forecasters a common pattern in the development of severe extratropical cyclones which have affected the sub-tropical and temperate East Coast. To evaluate this theory 20 years of data were systematically examined and showed that this was true. To represent these many cases nine such events
-
A catalogue of marine heatwave metrics and trends for the Australian region J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-12-14 Jules B. Kajtar, Neil J. Holbrook, Vanessa Hernaman
Marine heatwaves around Australia, and globally, have been increasing in their frequency, intensity, and duration. This study reviews and catalogues marine heatwave metrics and trends around Australia since 1982, from near the beginning of the satellite sea-surface temperature observing period. The years in which the longest and strongest marine heatwaves around Australia occurred are also recorded
-
Circular Flip-Flop Index: quantifying revision stability of forecasts of direction J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-12-09 Deryn Griffiths, Nicholas Loveday, Benjamin Price, Michael Foley, Alistair McKelvie
The Flip-Flop Index, designed to quantify the extent to which a forecast changes from one issue time to the next, is extended to a Circular Flip-Flop Index for use with forecasts of wind direction, swell direction or similar. The index was devised so we could understand the degree of stability in wind direction forecasts. The Circular Flip Flop Index is independent of observations, has a relatively
-
Australian rainfall anomalies and Indo-Pacific driver indices: links and skill in 2-year-long forecasts J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-12-09 I. G. Watterson, T. J. O’Kane, V. Kitsios, M. A. Chamberlain
Two-year-long simulations of the atmosphere and ocean by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's (CSIRO) Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) modelling system are analysed, with a focus on Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) climate drivers and their teleconnection to Australian rainfall. The simulations are 11-member ensemble forecasts (strictly, hindcasts) initiated
-
Variability and trend of sea level in southern waters of Java, Indonesia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-12-08 Amalia Nurlatifah, Martono, Indah Susanti, Mamat Suhermat
The coastal area of Java has become a centre of new economic growth. The southern coast of Java, which is directly adjacent to the tropical Indian Ocean, is very vulnerable to sea level rise caused by climate change. Information on variability and trends in sea level are therefore very important for adaptation and disaster mitigation efforts. This research was conducted to determine the variability
-
Revisions to the Australian tropical cyclone best track database J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-09-30 Joseph B. Courtney, Gary R. Foley, Johannes L. van Burgel, Blair Trewin, Andrew D. Burton, Jeffrey Callaghan, Noel E. Davidson
The Australian tropical cyclone (TC) best track database (BT) maintained by the Bureau of Meteorology has records since 1909 of varying quality and completeness. Since 2005 a series of efforts to improve the database have included: removing internal inconsistencies, adding fixes, and identifying errors using comparisons with other datasets; upgrading intensity information since 1973 including adding
-
Verification of moist surface variables over northern Australia in a high-resolution reanalysis (BARRA) J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-09-20 Peter T. May, Blair Trewin, Chun-Hsu Su, Bertram Ostendorf
Reanalyses are important tools for understanding past weather and climate variability, but detailed verification of near surface humidity variables have not been published. This is particularly concerning in tropical regions where humid conditions impact meteorology and human activities. In this study, we used screen level temperature and humidity data from a high-resolution atmospheric regional reanalysis
-
Future changes in stratospheric quasi-stationary wave-1 in the extratropical southern hemisphere spring and summer as simulated by ACCESS-CCM J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-26 Kane A. Stone, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Robyn Schofield
Seasonally dependent quasi-stationary planetary wave activity in the southern hemisphere influences the distribution of ozone within and near the equatorward edge of the stratospheric polar vortex. Accurate representation of this zonal asymmetry in ozone is important in the characterisation of stratospheric circulation and climate and their associated effects at the surface. In this study, we used
-
A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Jeff Callaghan, Scott B. Power
Here we examine winds associated with extreme rainfall and major flooding in coastal catchments and more broadly over southeastern Australia. Both radio-sonde and re-analysis data are examined. In every case (i) atmospheric moisture content is high and (ii) the low-level winds are onshore, and in almost every case (iii) the wind-direction turns anti-cyclonically with increasing height up to 500 hPa
-
Extreme monthly rainfall over Australia in a changing climate J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Ian G. Watterson, Zhi-Weng Chua, Pandora K. Hope
Motivated by the important impacts of extreme rainfall, this study extends the CSIRO and BoM (2015) analyses and projections of 20-year means and daily extremes to rainfall on the monthly timescale. Frequency distributions for monthly rainfall rates simulated by 40 CMIP5 models for the 1986-2005 period are compared with those from the AWAP 0.25° gridded observational data. Distributions spatially-averaged
-
A seasonal climatology of the Melbourne 1965-1975 ozonesonde record J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Paul Lehmann
A seasonal climatology of the 1965-1975 Melbourne ozonesonde ozone profile record is presented, spanning a period when minimal stratospheric ozone chemical depletion existed and prior to adequate satellite ozone profiling. Results are presented as monthly isentropic weighted means of ozone mixing ratio and partial pressure, with associated uncertainties, plotted against potential temperature and altitude
-
Large-scale drivers of Australian east coast cyclones since 1851 J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Stuart A. Browning, Ian D. Goodwin
Subtropical maritime low-pressure systems are one of the most complex and destructive storm types to impact Australia’s eastern seaboard. This family of storms, commonly referred to as East Coast Cyclones (ECC), is most active during the late autumn and early winter period when baroclinicity increases in the Tasman Sea region. ECC have proven challenging to forecast at both event and seasonal timescales
-
East Coast Lows and the Pasha Bulker storm - lessons learned nine years on J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Danielle C Verdon-Kidd, Anthony S Kiem, Garry R Willgoose
East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low pressure systems that form several times a year off the east coast of Australia. When these systems occur close to land they can cause major damage to infrastructure and communities due to gale force winds, intense rainfall, storm surge and coastal erosion. In June 2007, Newcastle and Central Coast regions of New South Wales (NSW) experienced severe weather and
-
Coherent Potential Vorticity Maxima and Their Relationship to Extreme Summer Rainfall in the Australian and North African Tropics J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Lam P. Hoang, Michael J. Reeder, Gareth. J. Berry, Juliane Schwendike
Extreme rainfall in the tropics is frequently linked with coherent synoptic-scale potential vorticity (PV) disturbances. Here, an objective technique is used to identify coherent synoptic-scale cyclonic PV maxima with a focus on those that occur during summer over the African and Australian tropics. These two regions are chosen for comparison because of their geographical and climatological similarities
-
Annual climate summary Australia (2016): strong El Niño gives way to strong negative IOD. J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Skie Tobin, Phillip Reid, Elaine Miles
Australian climate patterns and associated anomalies during 2016 are reviewed, with reference to relevant climate drivers for the Australian region. 2016 was the fourth-warmest year on record for Australia (annual anomaly of +0.87 °C), and the warmest year on record for the globe (the third year running that a new record has been set). Annual rainfall was above average for most of Australia, but below
-
Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis during the passage of Tropical Cyclones over Fiji J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Anil Deo, Kevin J. E. Walsh
Fiji is prone to the devastating effects of heavy rainfall during the passage of tropical cyclones (TCs) and as such accurate measurement of rainfall during such events is urgent for effective disaster mitigation and risk analysis. Fiji, however, has a sparse distribution of rain gauges, thus there is a deficiency in the accurate measurement of rainfall. This gap could be filled by satellite-based
-
Australia's Air Temperature Trend Reviewed J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Gregory P. Ayers
The hypothesis of an artificially exaggerated temperature trend in the Australian continental surface air temperature record is tested via comparison with four other records of temperature measured in the Australian region. The trends extracted from all five records are consistent, so the hypothesis of bias in the Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian surface air temperature record cannot be sustained
-
Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (summer 2015-16): strong El Niño peaks and begins to weaken J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Acacia S. Pepler
Southern hemisphere circulation patterns and associated anomalies for austral summer 2015-16 are reviewed, with an emphasis on the tropical Pacific as well as Australian rainfall and temperatures. Following the peak of El Niño in November 2015, summer 2015-16 featured continued near-record El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific but saw the emergence of cooler subsurface waters in the equatorial
-
Identifying East Coast Lows with climate hazards on the eastern seaboard J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Acacia S. Pepler, Agata Imielska, Aaron Coutts-Smith, Felicity Gamble, Martin Schweitzer
East Coast Lows are an important weather system that can produce severe wind, wave and rainfall events along the eastern seaboard of Australia. While a number of databases of these systems have been produced, this information has historically not been readily accessible to potential users outside the research sec-tor. This paper details the development of a new product, Maps and Tables of Climate Hazards
-
Analysis of within and between-GCM uncertainties of runoff projections in Mediterranean-like catchments J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Pilar A. Barria, Murray C. Peel, Kevin J.E. Walsh, René Garreaud
Streamflow reductions have been reported in mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) catchments, in particular in the southwest of Western Australia (SWA) and in central Chile (CC), following decreases in precipitation since the mid-1970s. Although projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicate the observed trends are expected to continue during the rest of the 21st century, they are affected
-
Evaluating the representation of Australian East Coast Lows in a regional climate model ensemble J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Alejandro Di Luca, Jason P. Evans, Acacia S. Pepler, Lisa V. Alexander, Daniel Argüeso
Due to their large influence on both severe weather and water security along the east coast of Australia, it is increasingly important to understand how East Coast Lows (ECLs) may change over coming decades. Changes in ECLs may occur for a number of reasons including changes in the general atmospheric circulation (e.g. poleward shift of storm tracks) and/or changes in local conditions (e.g. changes
-
A bias corrected WRF mesoscale fire weather dataset for Victoria, Australia 1972-2012 J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Timothy Brown, Graham Mills, Sarah Harris, Domagoj Podnar, Hauss Reinbold, Matt Fearon
Climatology data of fire weather across the landscape can provide science-based evidence for informing strategic decisions to ameliorate the impacts (at times extreme) of bushfires on community socio-economic wellbeing and to sustain ecosystem health and functions. A long-term climatology requires spatial and temporal data that are consistent to represent the landscape in sufficient detail to be useful
-
Large seasonal and diurnal anthropogenic heat flux across four Australian cities J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 S. Chapman, J.E.M. Watson, C.A. McAlpine
Anthropogenic heat release is a key component of the urban heat island. However, it is often excluded from studies of the urban heat island because reliable estimates are not available. This omission is important because anthropogenic heat can contribute up to 4ºC to the urban heat island, and increases heat stress to urban residents. The exclusion of anthropogenic heat means the urban heat island
-
The distribution of daily rainfall in Australia and simulated future changes J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Ian G. Watterson, Tony Rafter
This study extends recent projections of monthly and daily precipitation over Australia by analysing the full frequency distribution of daily rain amounts and making projections of the new statistics wet-day fraction and top percentile of rain. Simulations from an ensemble of 33 CMIP5 models are used, together with six simulations from the downscaling model CCAM, with the data analysed on the model
-
Meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour during the Waroona bushfire, Western Australia, January 2016 J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Mika Peace, Lachlan McCaw, Bradley Santos, Jeffrey D. Kepert, Neil Burrows, Robert J. B. Fawcett
The Waroona bushfire burnt 69,000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. During the first two days of the fire, there were two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events and two destructive evening fire runs. Over 160 homes were destroyed and there were two fatalities. This case study examines in detail the links between the meteorological observations and the fire behaviour reconstruction.The first pyroCb developed
-
Case study on the use of dynamically downscaled climate model data for assessing water security in the Lower Hunter region of the eastern seaboard of Australia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Natalie Lockart, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera, Anthony S. Kiem, AFM Kamal Chowdhury, Nadeeka Parana Manage, Lanying Zhang, Callum Twomey
A key aim of the Eastern Seaboard Climate Change Initiative (ESCCI) is under-standing the effect of climate change on the eastern seaboard of Australia, and the implications for climate change adaptation in this area. The New South Wales (NSW) / Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Regional Climate Modelling project (NARCliM) has produced three dynamically downscaled reanalysis climate datasets along
-
Links between East Coast Lows and the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall along the eastern seaboard of Australia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Anthony S. Kiem, Callum Twomey, Natalie Lockart, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera, AFM Kamal Chowdhury, Nadeeka Parana Manage, Lanying Zhang
East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems which occur over the subtropical east coasts of southern and northern hemisphere continents. ECLs are typically associated with gale force winds, large seas, storm surges, heavy rainfall and flooding. While ECL impacts are typically seen as negative the rainfall associated with ECLs is also very important for urban water security within the heavily
-
Statistical testing of dynamically downscaled rainfall data for the Upper Hunter region, New South Wales, Australia J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Nadeeka Parana Manage, Natalie Lockart, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera, Anthony S. Kiem, AFM Kamal Chowdhury, Lanying Zhang, Callum Twomey
This study tests the statistical properties of downscaled climate data, concentrating on the rainfall which is required for hydrology predictions used in water supply reservoir simulations. The datasets used in this study have been produced by the New South Wales (NSW) / Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project which provides a dynamically downscaled climate dataset
-
ACCESS-S1 The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Debra Hudson, Oscar Alves, Harry H. Hendon, Eun-Pa Lim, Guoqiang Liu, Jing-Jia Luo, Craig MacLachlan, Andrew G. Marshall, Li Shi, Guomin Wang, Robin Wedd, Griffith Young, Mei Zhao, Xiaobing Zhou
ACCESS-S1 will be the next version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal performance of ACCESS-S1 has been evaluated based on a 23-year hindcast set and compared to the current operational system, POAMA. The system has considerable enhancements compared to POAMA, including higher vertical and horizontal
-
Tracking the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in real-time: a staged communication approach to event onset J. South. Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 3.6) Pub Date : 2021-08-05 Felicity Gamble, Grant Beard, Andrew Watkins, David Jones, Catherine Ganter, Vanessa Webb, Alex Evans
Communicating the development of El Niño and La Niña events is often challenging, largely due to the general misconception that the transition to an event can occur rapidly – like flicking a switch. Additionally, in Australia the association of El Niño with drought, and La Niña with flood, and the impacts that result, can often cloud the message. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is responsible