Abstract Precipitation has a dominant role in agriculture, and a regular rain pattern is usually vital to agriculture; excessive or inadequate rainfall can be harmful. In this paper, an agricultural drought index is utilized to study the agricultural drought periods and analyze them with their intensities at various locations. Some nonhomogeneous Poisson models are also used to calculate the probability

Abstract In this study, we analysed the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in Korea in connection with weakening of tropical cyclones (TCs) around the Korean Peninsula (32°–36° N, 122°–132° E) over the past 30 years (1979–2015). Weakened TCs were classified into two categories: TCs weakened to extratropical cyclones (WEC) and TCs weakened to tropical depressions (WTD). In WEC, precipitation

Abstract Recently, it has been shown for the first time by observations that an anticyclonic mesoscale eddy can generate internal waves (wavelengths of 0.4 to 1 km) that carry energy away from the eddy. In the present study, we investigate a possible mechanism for generating internal waves near the edge of a submesoscale eddy. The study was motivated by airborne infrared imagery that shows curved thermal

Abstract There is evidence that a natural control system influences global atmospheric surface temperature (Leggett and Ball 2020). The present paper sets up and tests a hypothesis concerning the physical makeup of the sequential elements of the control system and its outcomes. The final outcome that the control system influences is defined as global atmospheric surface temperature. The terms used

Abstract Global Bayesian optimization (GBO) is a derivative-free optimization method that is used widely in the tech-industry to optimize objective functions that are expensive to evaluate, numerically or otherwise. We discuss the use of GBO in ensemble data assimilation (DA), where the goal is to update the state of a numerical model in view of noisy observations. Specifically, we consider three tasks:

Abstract In geophysics, the direct application of covariance matrix dynamics described by the Kalman filter (KF) is limited by the high dimension of such problems. The parametric Kalman filter (PKF) is a recent alternative to the ensemble Kalman filter, where the covariance matrices are approximated by a covariance model featured by a set of parameters. The covariance dynamics is then described by

Abstract After the release of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, many changes have been made to the Integrated Forecasting System model and data-assimilation system, resulting in an improved reanalysis, ERA5. One of the changes in the model allows the model version in ERA5 to represent the moisture sensitivity of deep convection more realistically than the model version in ERA-Interim. A previous modeling

Abstract Nowadays, the city’s rapid growth of industrialisation, population, human activities, vehicular traffic density, unplanned urbanisation with poor ventilation contributes to increasing large amount of pollutants concentration. Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) height is a basic parameter to define the pollution carrying capacity of any area in a big city. In the time series analysis and prediction

Abstract In this work, we take a modern high-resolution finite-volume scheme for solving the rotational shallow-water equations and extend it with features required to run real-world ocean simulations. Our contributions include a spatially varying north vector and Coriolis term required for large scale domains, moving wet-dry fronts, a static land mask, bottom shear stress, wind forcing, boundary conditions

Abstract The crossing-point forecast is defined by the intersection between a forecast (conditional) and a climate (unconditional) cumulative probability distribution function. It is interpreted as the probabilistic worst-case scenario with respect to climatology. This article discusses a scoring function consistent for the crossing-point forecast where both forecasts and verifying observations are

Abstract Identifying homogeneous regions based on spatial variables is vital for providing a certain and fixed region's spatial and temporal behavior. However, a significant problem of non-separation rises when the geographic coordinates are utilized for clustering, just because the Euclidean distance is not suitable for clustering when considering the geographic coordinates. Therefore, this study

Abstract We present a new multiscale covariance localisation method for ensemble data assimilation that is based on the estimation of eigenvectors and subsequent projections, together with traditional spatial localisation applied with a range of localisation lengths. In short, we estimate the leading, large-scale eigenvectors from the sample covariance matrix obtained by spatially smoothing the ensemble

Abstract This study developed a hybrid four-dimensional (4D) ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) radar data assimilation (DA) system for the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The 4DEnVar approach incorporated ensemble covariances at multiple time levels to assimilate observations distributed in the assimilation windows. By approximating the evolution of the background error using 4D ensemble covariance

Abstract The atmospheric circulation is driven by heat transport from the tropics to the polar regions, embedding energy conversions between available potential and kinetic energy through various mechanisms. The processes of energy transformations related to the dynamics of the atmosphere can be quantitatively investigated through the Lorenz energy cycle formalism. Here we examine these variations

Abstract Eady edge waves (EEWs) propagate on surface baroclinic zones and they resemble synoptic and sub-synoptic scale frontal wave-trains. The wave-trains are frequently depicted on surface charts, and occur per se on a front with a local baroclinicity extremum. The possible linkage of EEWs to frontal waves is explored within the framework of so-called ‘surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics’ by establishing

Abstract A variational bias correction (VarBC) technique is proposed within the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system of the Météo-France convective scale model AROME to remove biases present in horizontal wind components derived from aircraft Mode-S data. A set of two predictors derived from the geometry between ground and air speeds has been chosen in order to correct the aircraft

Abstract The study of winter seasonal predictability with the climate model INM-CM5-0 is presented. Initial conditions were produced using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for atmosphere, SODA3.4.2 reanalysis data for ocean and the bias-correction algorithm. The seasonal 5-month re-forecasts consisting of 10 ensemble members with small initial condition perturbations for each year over the 35-yr period

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are high-latitude intense maritime mesoscale weather systems that develop over open water near the sea ice margin or near snow-covered continents during cold air outbreaks. PLs pose a threat to coastal and island communities, transportation and offshore drilling platforms. PLs mainly develop during the cold season and their frequency exhibits a large interannual variability

Abstract Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for numerical weather prediction rely on simulated observations that should include simulated observation errors in order to realistically represent the behaviour of real data. Real observations include many types of error, such as instrument error, representativeness error, and observation operator error, with some portion of this error being

Abstract Wintertime sea level variability over the northern European continental shelf is largely wind-driven. Using daily gridded sea level anomaly from altimetry, we examine both the spatial and the temporal relationship between northern European sea level variability and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as represented by the jet cluster paradigm. The jet clusters represent different

Abstract The mean drift in a permeable homogeneous bottom layer caused by internal gravity waves in an overlying stratified fluid, is investigated theoretically. We apply a Lagrangian formulation, together with the long-wave approximation, for the motion in the fluid and the fluid-saturated permeable layer. In the stratified fluid, we assume a constant Brunt-Väisälä frequency and inviscid flow. In

(2021). Scientific methods, media coverage, public awareness and climate change. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography: Vol. 73, No. 1, pp. 1-2.

Abstract Currently most ocean forecast systems provide daily eddy resolving predictions 7 days or so in advance. We first investigate the potential for longer range daily ocean forecast up to 28 days using the coupled system ACCESS-S1 in which the ocean component is eddy permitting. The daily ocean forecasts over the hindcast period 1990–2012 in the Indo-Pacific oceans have been evaluated, using persistence

Abstract This study investigated interdecadal variations in summer rainfall in central eastern China before and after the mid-1990s. The mean difference in rainfall between the two epochs (average rainfall in the 1981–1995 period: 5.0 mm day−1; average rainfall in the 1996–2010 period: 6.0 mm day−1) was significant at the 95% confidence level. This study explored the cause of the recent increase in

Abstract This study investigated interdecadal variations in summer rainfall in central eastern China before and after the mid-1990s. The mean difference in rainfall between the two epochs (average rainfall in the 1981–1995 period: 5.0 mm day−1; average rainfall in the 1996–2010 period: 6.0 mm day−1) was significant at the 95% confidence level. This study explored the cause of the recent increase in

Abstract Currently most ocean forecast systems provide daily eddy resolving predictions 7 days or so in advance. We first investigate the potential for longer range daily ocean forecast up to 28 days using the coupled system ACCESS-S1 in which the ocean component is eddy permitting. The daily ocean forecasts over the hindcast period 1990–2012 in the Indo-Pacific oceans have been evaluated, using persistence

Abstract Notwithstanding the extensive media coverage of topics related to climate change, communication initiatives in open contradiction with the scientific understanding of climate change as a primarily anthropogenic phenomenon are still widespread. We focus here on a recent such initiative, which gained notoriety between the second half of 2019 and the first half of 2020. We show that its promoters

Abstract This paper deals with the time series analysis of precipitation patterns in Africa’s most populated nation using recently developed flexible modelling techniques to study the monthly precipitation data of some major economically viable and highly populated regions in Nigeria. The results indicate that there is a significant trend for Lagos rainfall data, implying that precipitations have systematically

Abstract Non-Gaussianity and nonlinearity have been shown to be ubiquitous characteristics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with implication on predictability, modelling, and assessment of extremes. These topics are investigated through the analysis of third-order statistics of El Niño 3.4 index in the period 1870–2018, namely bicovariance and bispectrum. Likewise, the spectral decomposition

Abstract Some quantitative characteristics of error covariance are studied for linear Kalman filters. These quantitative characteristics include the peak value and location in the matrix, the decay rate from peak to bottom, and some algebraic constraints of the elements in the covariance matrix. We mathematically prove a matrix upper bound and its quantitative characteristics for the error covariance

Abstract To accurately calculate the impact of renewables on power production in complex electric power grids, high-resolution and ideally seamless data within the planetary boundary layer are required. Therefore, the quality of different regional reanalyses and hindcasts is evaluated with respect to the representation of the planetery boundary layer and related sub-daily processes. On the one hand

Abstract Observing system assessments were made for the Earth Observing Nanosatellite-Microwave (EON-MW), a 12U CubeSat analog of the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). Since the EON-MW channels and sensor specifications closely follow those of ATMS, the sensor characteristics and geophysical capabilities assessments indicate that the value of information for humidity (temperature) of EON-MW

Abstract The autocorrelation function (ACF) and its relationship to fluctuation analysis (FA) are discussed, based on the reanalysis monthly mean geopotential height at 500 hPa from ECMWF (ERA-20C). ACF provides a measure of the influence of correlation at different time points. The principal pattern ACF shows relatively large positive correlations between every consecutive years in the central Asian

Abstract The autocorrelation function (ACF) and its relationship to fluctuation analysis (FA) are discussed, based on the reanalysis monthly mean geopotential height at 500 hPa from ECMWF (ERA-20C). ACF provides a measure of the influence of correlation at different time points. The principal pattern ACF shows relatively large positive correlations between every consecutive years in the central Asian

Abstract High latitude regions are undergoing substantial land use and land cover change (LULCC) arising partly from a changing climate (e.g. greening of the Arctic) and climate mitigation policies (e.g. afforestation). Despite these ongoing changes, the impacts of LULCC in high latitudes are poorly understood. Studies to reduce this knowledge deficit primarily deploy regional climate models (RCMs)

Abstract A dynamical–system approach is proposed to describe the relationship between precipitation and a chosen predictor. This is done by constructing a two dimensional phase space spanned by predictor and predictant. This study uses two sounding data sets from the Tropical Western Pacific and Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) over North–East Italy as representatives of the tropics and midlatitudes, in

Abstract Hybrid systems have become the state of the art among data assimilation methods. These systems combine the benefits of two other systems that are traditionally used in operational weather forecasting: an ensemble-based system and a variational system. One of the most recently proposed hybrid approaches is called hybrid gain (HG). It obtains the final analysis as a linear combination of two

Abstract Data assimilation combines observations with numerical model data, to provide a best estimate of a real system. Errors due to unresolved scales arise when there is a spatio-temporal scale mismatch between the processes resolved by the observations and model. We present theory on error, uncertainty and bias due to unresolved scales for situations where observations contain information on smaller

Abstract Pakistan’s biggest province in terms of area, Baluchistan appears to have been affected from the climate variability since last few decades. No substantive research works have been carried out in analyzing the precipitation variability in Baluchistan and linkage to large-scale teleconnection. The goal of this paper is to determine possible linkages of precipitation with large scale atmospheric

Abstract Drought monitoring and forecasting play a vital role in making drought mitigation policies. In previous research, several drought monitoring tools based on the probabilistic models have been developed for precise and accurate inferences of drought severity and its effects. However, the risk of inaccurate determination of drought classes always exists in probabilistic models. The aim of this

Abstract A variety of drought monitoring tools are being used for early warning systems and formulating drought mitigation policies. Standardized Drought Indices (SDI) are the most commonly used. However, the use of SDI at multiple stations located in a homogenous climatic region with internally similar characteristics and contagious in space arises several problems due to spatial and temporal behaviour

Abstract On the β plane approximation, the two-layer quasigeostrophic mode is used to study the baroclinic instability of the quadric shear basic zonal flows on a uniform bottom topography. The phase speed and growth rate of instability waves are functions of the shear zonal basic flows and bottom topographic slope. The study focus is on the effects of topography and the quadric shear basic zonal flows

Abstract Numerous indicators show that multi-annual and longer oceanic baroclinic variability retains a complicated spatial structure out to decades and longer. With time-averaging, the sub-basin scales connected to abyssal topography and meteorological structures emerge in the fields. Here, using 26-years of an oceanic state estimate (ECCO), an attempt is made to extract simpler patterns from the

Abstract The new generation of geostationary environmental operational satellite imager, the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), adds two more water vapour channels and four more other channels than its predecessor, MTSAT-2. But except for the three water vapour channels, AHI channels are often not assimilated over land due to large uncertainty in surface parameters. Using the relative adjoint

Abstract Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model system similar to the currently operational NWP system at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Abstract This study develops and tests a version of the Python-driven, non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) dynamic model, as well as its tangent linear and adjoint models. The non-linear, non-hydrostatic dynamic core of the MPAS-A is restructured to have a Python driver for the convenience of parsing namelists, manipulating matrices, controlling simulation time

Abstract This study examined tropical cyclones (TCs) Noul and Nepartak to demonstrate the evolutions of singular vector perturbations. Perturbations comprise eigen-solutions for dry total energy from two domains with different focuses, namely the TC itself and the background atmospheric flow in East Asia. These perturbations are usually used to construct ensemble members for the probabilistic forecasts

Abstract Three-dimensional potential vorticity (PV) structures on the convective scale during extreme precipitation events are investigated. Using the high resolution COSMO-REA2 data set, 3D composites of the PV, with and without Coriolis parameter and related variables, are evaluated for different classes of precipitation intensity. The development of a significant horizontal dipole structure in the

Abstract Large historical and future ensemble simulations from the Max-Planck Institute and the Canadian Earth System Models and from CMIP5 have been analysed to investigate the uncertainty due to internal variability in multi-decadal temperature and precipitation trends over Europe. Internal variability dominates the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation trends in all seasons at 30-year time

Abstract This is a continuation of a previous paper by Starius, where for the solution of the shallow water equations on the sphere, we consider Equator-Pole grid systems consisting of one latitude-longitude grid covering an annular band around the equator, and two orthogonal polar grids based on modified stereographic coordinates. Here, we generalise this by letting an equatorial band be covered with

Abstract Changes in the climate and weather conditions, as well as rising earth’s average temperature are likely to escalate deterioration of global drought occurrence. Drought is considered an interwoven natural disaster composed by a number of different factors, as for example agricultural, meteorological or hydrological. Hydrological drought estimation with regional accuracy is the most problematic

Abstract Applying the daily ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016, we found that widespread cold (warm) wintertime extreme events in Northern Europe occurred most frequently in winter 1984–1985 (2006–2007). These events often persisted for multiple days, and their primary drivers were the pattern of atmospheric large-scale circulation, the direction of surface wind and the downward longwave

Abstract The Mediterranean overflow water is one of the most important intermediate-depth water masses in the North Atlantic. To investigate its properties a pre-industrial simulation with the earth system model EC-Earth is used. The multidecadal variability of the outflow is analysed by examining the modelled volume and salt transports through the Strait of Gibraltar as well as different atmospheric

Abstract The analysis error covariance is not readily available from four-dimensional variational (4dvar) data assimilation methods, not because of the complexity of mathematical derivation, but rather its computational expense. A number of techniques have been explored for more readily obtaining the analysis error covariance such as using Monte–Carlo methods, an ensemble of analyses, or the adjoint

Abstract Wind profile observations near the surface are rarely assimilated into numerical weather prediction models. More and more ground-based remote sensing devices for wind profile observations are used to get profiles up to the hub height of wind turbines. However, an observation impact of LiDAR-like wind profile measurements on data assimilation in the atmospheric boundary layer is unknown. We

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied in a nested configuration from a 2.7 km convection-permitting domain via grey-zone resolutions of 900 m and 300 m down to the 100 m turbulence-permitting scale. Based on sensitivity studies, this approach was optimized to investigate the evolution of small-scale processes in the PBL for a clear sky case during the HOPE experiment

Abstract We show evidence that tropical atmospheric variability over the central tropical Pacific modulates the circulation over the western Arctic and the North Atlantic-European sector, impacting the summer precipitation especially over Nordic European countries (NEC). Our results, based on the ERA5 reanalysis, suggest the occurrence of a teleconnection mechanism (similar to the Pacific North American

Abstract The question of European hydroclimate anomaly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is revisited by composite analyses on data from Dai et al.’s Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), and a 10-member CESM coupled-model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations. This study benefits from exceptionally long or large samples in OWDA and CESM-LME

Abstract The impact of assimilating zenith total delay (ZTD) observations from the Moroccan ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network into the high-resolution operational model AROME-Morocco (2.5 km) is assessed over one month. The objective is to investigate the impact on moisture field and rainy event forecasts in a three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation framework

Abstract Here we provide statistically significant observational evidence that a feedback control system moderating atmospheric temperature is presently operating coherently at global scale. Further, this control system is of a sophisticated type, involving the corrective feedback not only of a linear error term but also its derivative and its integral. This makes it of the same type as the most widely