Abstract A real-time model for predicting the quasistationary solar wind speed at the near-Earth orbit is presented. The forecast of the high-speed solar wind stream velocity is obtained with an empirical model linking the areas of coronal holes to the solar wind speed. The forecast of the slow solar wind is based on data on the observed solar wind speed from the previous solar rotation. Over the whole

Abstract Polar cap magnetic activity (PC index) is an indicator of solar wind energy that enters the magnetosphere (Resolutions of XXII IAGA Assembly, 2013). Usually, the PC index follows changes in the interplanetary electric field \(E_{KL}\), that is estimated from measurement data on solar wind parameters at the Lagrange point L1 (available at the OMNI website). However, during the period of magnetic

Abstract The study presents the results of the correlation analysis for the average seasonal values of intensity of solar UV radiation (297–330 nm), as well as for the energy of the lines of solar spectral irradiance with total solar irradiance and total magnetic field of the Sun for the period of 2008–2018 (the 24th cycle of solar activity). The analysis is carried out using the spectral observations

Abstract The structure of the space weather center to support international air navigation established according to the ICAO resolution is considered. The brief review of space weather events, effects, and related risks is presented. The regulator requirements for space weather centers and their operation features are described.

Abstract The paper deals with the quality assessment and the analysis of possible corrections of the empirical model of the shape and position of the high-latitude boundary of the Earth’s outer radiation belt [2] using the full dataset on the electron fluxes with energy above 100 keV measured in the recent 5 years at the orbit of the Meteor-M No. 2 satellite. The high-latitude boundary of the Earth’s

Abstract The object of research is the methods for monitoring and forecasting strong space weather disturbances affecting the radiation environment and radio communication during air travels. The monitoring techniques used by the existing space weather centers are analyzed: the U.S. Center, the PECASUS consortium (Great Britain, Finland, Germany, Poland, Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Cyprus

Abstract A possibility of correcting ionosphere climate models based on data from a single observation station equipped with the vertical radio sounding ionosonde is studied to monitor the Earth plasma shell in the vicinity of this measuring instrument. The SIMP-STANDARD and IRI models are used for the study. The probabilities of the fact that relative deviations of corrected models are below 10% are

Abstract The potential is investigated of predicting the time series of the Dst geomagnetic index using various adaptive methods: artificial neural networks (classical multilayer perceptrons), decision trees (random forest), gradient boosting. The prediction is based on the parameters of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measured at the Lagrange point L1 in the ACE spacecraft experiment

Abstract The need to reparametrize the OVATION Prime (2010) empirical auroral precipitation model using the Russian polar cap index (PC index) is considered. For this purpose, the integrated auroral power of particle precipitation obtained from the Polar satellite data for the period from December 1996 to June 1998 is compared with the PC index and the Newell’s coupling function. The analysis revealed

Abstract The ways are studied to improve the quality of prediction of the time series of hourly mean fluxes and daily total fluxes (fluences) of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt of the Earth 1 to 24 hours ahead and 1 to 4 days ahead, respectively. The prediction uses an approximation approach based on various machine learning methods, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs), decision

Abstract Observations and initial analysis of interplanetary scintillation data are briefly described in the framework of the program for the solar wind monitoring with the modernized LPI LPA radio telescope that started in 2014. The examples of detecting interplanetary coronal mass injections (ICME) and co-rotating interaction regions (CIR) of different-speed flows are presented. It is shown that

Abstract The estimates of statistical indicators of the state and variability of the ice cover characteristics (ice concentration, ice stage of development) of the Bering Sea obtained from digital imagery are presented using available information on ice conditions for the period of 1960–2016. The distributions of average long-term values of the fields of ice concentration and stage of development for

Abstract Based on the NOAA climate datasets, trends, regional features, and possible causal relationships of interannual variations in water temperature on the surface (SST) and in the upper 750-meter layer of the subarctic Pacific with variations in the fields of air temperature, air pressure, wind, and climate indices over the past four decades are identified. The results revealed a degree of heterogeneity

Abstract The 2019/2020 wintertime (December–March) anomalies of sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation are analyzed. The contribution of the 40-year linear trend in these parameters associated with global climate change and of the interannual variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is assessed. In the 2019/2020 winter, extreme zonal circulation was observed. The mean wintertime

Abstract New data are presented on tornadoes over land in Russia for the period of 1900–2018 based on various sources. In total, information on 1763 tornadoes was collected, including 993 tornadoes from eyewitness reports on tornado passage and/or associated impacts and 770 tornadoes from satellite data on tornado-induced windthrows. Both single tornadoes and tornado outbreaks, the cases of formation

Abstract The problem of air pollution in Almaty city in stagnant weather conditions is considered. Such conditions are so frequent, because the city is located at the foothills of the mountain range of Ile Alatau. The WRF-Chem complex model is used for the analysis and allows a high-detail simulation both of the atmospheric circulation and the transport of various pollutants, taking into account their

Abstract The environments of 53 severe squalls and tornadoes that caused large-scale windthrows in the forest zone of European Russia and the Ural in 1989–2019 are analyzed. The CFSR and ERA-5 reanalyses and sounding data were used to estimate characteristics of the environments including convective instability indices. It was found that the substantial temperature gradient on the atmospheric front

Abstract The review is based on the results of operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring system in Russia and neighboring countries that functions in the operational mode at the Central Aerological Observatory. The monitoring system uses data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers being under the methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality

Abstract The quality of simulation of model fields is analyzed depending on the assimilation of various types of data using the PDAF software product assimilating synthetic data into the NEMO global ocean model. Several numerical experiments are performed to simulate the ocean–sea ice system. Initially, free model was run with different values of the coefficients of horizontal turbulent viscosity and

Abstract A method to forecast orographic turbulence basing on the COSMO-Ru7 numerical model output data is presented. The calculation algorithm represents the critical amplitude approach for gravity waves and allows identifying zones of mountain wave breaking that generate turbulence. Its intensity is estimated through the wave drag value. The calculation is based on the model data for the territory

Abstract The results of one-dimensional calculations of the height profiles of nucleated sulfate aerosol particles for the northern mid-latitudes and tropics in winter are presented. Numerical calculations were performed using a three-dimensional model of the transport and transformation of multicomponent gas and aerosol substances in the atmosphere, incorporating photochemistry, nucleation involving

Abstract Five 50-year simulations with version 5 of the INM RAS coupled climate model revealed that the winters with El Niño are characterized by higher Arctic stratospheric temperature as compared to the seasons with La Niña. Lower stratospheric temperature in the Arctic regions as compared to the seasons with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies corresponds to the winter seasons with

Abstract The results of observations of the features of intraannual variability for the vertical structure of background aerosol in the stratosphere over Western Siberia in 2016–2018 are presented and analyzed. Experimental data were obtained at the lidar complex of Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences) with a receiving mirror diameter of 1 m. The objective

Abstract Many large-scale dynamic phenomena in the Earth’s atmosphere are associated with the processes of propagation and breaking of Rossby waves. A new method for identifying the Rossby wave breaking (RWB) is proposed. It is based on the detection of breakings centers by analyzing the shape of the contours of potential vorticity or temperature on quasimaterial surfaces: isentropic and iserthelic

Abstract Measurement data on methane fluxes in the palsa mire ecosystem at the border of tundra and taiga zones in northeastern European Russia are presented. It was found for the first time that an intense methane flux from the surface of the permafrost mound (palsa) is determined by the spring thawing of the seasonally thawed horizon in the layer of 14–25 cm. During this period, the emission was

Abstract Aerosol effects on the forecast of surface temperature, as well as temperature at the levels of 850 and 500 hPa over Europe and the European part of Russia are studied using various aerosol climatologies: Tanre, Tegen, and MACv2. The numerical experiments with the COSMO-Ru model are performed for the central months of the seasons (January, April, July, and October) in 2017. It is found that

An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920040111

Abstract Droughts significantly decrease production of crops. Therefore, three drought indices, SPI and SPEI (meteorological drought) and SSI (agricultural drought) have been evaluated for 82 rain gage stations in the Bundelkhand region, India. The non-parametric trend test (the Mann–Kendall test) and the Sen’s slope estimator have been used to analyze the monthly, seasonal, and annual trends for both

Abstract The concept of land use adaptation to climate change and a short history of its formation in Russia are described. The global problems and disadvantages of the adaptation policy are listed, the Russian approaches and developed methods of land use adaptation to climate change are specified. Although there are a lot of legislative acts and scientific recommendations in Russia, the tendency of

Abstract Using climate monitoring data from 96 Russian weather stations, the years of severe droughts are identified. For this purpose, the following criterion was used: a value of the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient for May–August is less than 0.6. Climate of a time period, i.e., a set of consecutive years, is considered unfavorable for the cultivation of grain crops if the frequency of severe

Abstract Future changes in water deficit in Central Asia are analyzed based on the ensemble simulations with the system of the regional climate model (RCM) and atmospheric boundary layer model (ABLM) developed at the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. It is shown that by the middle of the 21st century the forecasted changes over the irrigated areas are greater by 2.5–4.0 times than those inferred

Abstract Weather hazards caused by the vertical air movement are considered. It is stated that the only effective mean for their detection is the weather radar. The methods used for this purpose in modern radiolocation are listed, and the difficulties encountered in their practical implementation are discussed. A new method developed by the authors to detect the zone of local vertical movement of elementary

Abstract The effects of long-period climate change and fluctuations of climate factors in the recent decades on the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) growing in the Kerzshenskii State Nature Biosphere Reserve (the Nizhny Novgorod region) are considered. It is found that the amount of precipitation forming phytocenoses water availability is the most important climatic factor limiting the pine growth and

Abstract Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data for June–August in 1950–2016, the frequency of severe atmospheric droughts in the south of the East European Plain is analyzed. It is found that droughts were observed more often in the periods of warmer SST in the North Atlantic as compared to its colder period. It was revealed that the frequency of droughts in the Volga region and

Abstract The changes in the thermal regime of the Upper Kolyma rivers in the permafrost zone in 1981–2010 are discussed. Over the recent three decades the normals of the dates of the springtime 0.2°C water temperature crossing have shifted by 3–13 days earlier due to the climate warming. Average long-term water temperatures in the first half of summer increased by 1.4–1.6°C. In autumn, the 0.2°C crossing

Abstract The skills of a method to estimate evapotranspiration from a heterogeneous surface, including irrigated lands, based on the quantitative description of the deformation of vertical distributions of specific humidity at the windward and leeward boundaries of the site are considered in the framework of numerical regional climate modeling and a detailed description of the atmospheric boundary

Abstract The review is compiled on the basis of the results of operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring in Russia and adjoining territories functioning in the operational mode at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under the methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The

Abstract Uncertainty in predicted precipitation and air temperature are the main sources of the uncertainty in flood forecasting. In this study, the fuzzy set theory is used for assessment of impact that uncertainty in precipitation and air temperature data has on flood forecasting in the Dez basin in southwestern Iran. The precipitation and air temperature were predicted using the Weather Research

Abstract The paper presents the results of the verification of ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses data on surface air temperature obtained from drifting buoys, ground-based weather stations, and, for the first time, from measurements at the North Pole drifting stations. The North Pole station data were not assimilated in the reanalyses, which provides a rare opportunity for independent validation. The

Abstract A possibility of the early prediction of El Niño and La Niña phenomena taking into account their two types (Central Pacific and East Pacific ones) is studied. The prognostic model is based on the method of artificial neural networks. A set of global climate indices for the period of 1950–2019 is used as the input parameters of the model. The indices are calculated using monthly mean NCEP/NCAR

Abstract The paper proposes a new method for the integrated assessment of aquatic ecosystems based on dissolved oxygen concentration and water body temperature. The study proves the validity of assessing the state of aquatic ecosystems in terms of entropy change and the possibility of assessing the ecological state of water bodies based on the point values of the entropy index. The algorithm for the

Abstract Methodological approaches and results of estimation of peak flow characteristics of the Iya River taking into account the extreme rainfall flood in the town of 2019, that led to the catastrophic flood in Tulun (the Irkutsk region), are considered. A hydrodynamic model considering the impact of hydraulic structures is proposed to determine the peak flow and to calculate flooding levels. The

Abstract An analysis is carried out to estimate features of the atmospheric centers of action (ACA) in the Northern and Southern hemispheres using different long-term reanalysis data. The variability of ACAs and their relation to the hemispheric temperature and key climatic modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation is analyzed

Abstract The correlation between the isotopic composition of ice wedges and temperature of the cold period over the past 80 years in the north of the permafrost zone of Russia is verified using modern climate data. The meteorological observations from 1930 to 2017 and the values of δ18О in ice wedges for each region of the permafrost zone are analyzed to identify the most obvious and stable dependence

Abstract Based on the analysis of seasonal changes in prevailing wind, S.P. Khromov proposed in 1957 that the atmospheric circulation over the Barents and Kara seas has monsoon features. The ЕRА-Interim reanalysis is used to study seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation types over the Barents Sea during 1979–2018. The monsoon features of circulation (airflows from the land to the sea) in winter

Abstract The results of measurements of surface concentrations of nitrogen oxides NOx (NO and NO2) performed at the atmospheric monitoring station near Saint Petersburg (Petergof, 59.88° N, 29.83° E) in 2012–2018 are presented. The main patterns of the temporal variability of NOx concentrations typical for the urban atmosphere of a large megacity (seasonal, daily, and weekly variations) are revealed

Abstract The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase on the intensity and localization of anomalies in sea surface temperature and meteorological parameters associated with two types of El Niño is analyzed. The analysis is based on reanalysis and CMIP5 model data for modern and future climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). It is found that El Niño does not exhibit robust intensification during the

Abstract Based on the observations from more than 20 weather stations, the frequency of occurrence of the most dangerous weather events for Georgia (very heavy precipitation, hail, hurricane wind, blizzard, fog) is investigated. Based on the stochastic laws, the probabilities of occurrence of one of the events from the complex, the probability of the joint occurrence of both events of the complex,

Abstract The long-term variability of the Black Sea intermediate layer temperature is analyzed using an updated database for the period from 1951 to 2017. The existence of interdecadal temperature variations in the vicinity of the cold intermediate layer (CIL) with a period of ~50 years and the amplitude to 0.7°C is confirmed. It is shown that the CIL cooling/warming is accompanied by its upward/downward

Abstract The problem of preparing initial climatic data with varying frequency of occurrence for thermodynamic modeling of Arctic ice is considered. It is revealed that air temperature is the most significant meteorological parameter for such calculations. Based on the estimation of the sum of freezing degree-days for the cold season, a method for preparing initial data for the thermodynamic calculation

Abstract The real and hypothetical sources of radioactive contamination in the Arctic are considered. The urgency of assessing radiation conditions in the region is shown. The main reasons for reducing the reliability of results of aerial radiation reconnaissance in the Arctic are identified. The statistical distribution of pressure, temperature and moisture content of air over the Arctic is analyzed

Abstract The response of the Black Sea upper layer to the quasitropical cyclone on September 25–29, 2005 is studied using the coupled model consisting of the WRF atmosphere model, NEMO ocean model, and OASIS coupler. The circulation arising in the sea under the influence of the quasitropical cyclone is considered. It is demonstrated how sea surface temperature varied under the cyclone during its evolution

Abstract The development of a thunderstorm cell in the Beijing area according to the results of numerical modeling and field observations is considered. Based on the numerical simulation, it is shown that the most intense electrification process is the separation of charges as a result of collisions of hailstones and cloud crystals. Using the field observations, the relationship between the electrical

Abstract The analysis of systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field is performed. The dataset of the 5-day mean values of 500 hPa geopotential height during 1998–2018 is used for this purpose and is represented by the coefficients of its expansions in spherical functions. It is found that the hemispheric mean value of 500 hPa geopotential height increased by 1.0–2

Abstract The comparative analysis of field data on weather radar reflectivity and lightning activity for the convective season of 2016 (May 16–September 18) is performed. The accuracy of the thunderstorm detection algorithm implemented in the DMRL-C radars is evaluated. A new algorithm based on the sum of positive values of reflectivity is proposed. In terms of accuracy and reliability, the algorithm

Abstract The interannual and interdecadal distributions of the indices of large-scale atmospheric oscillations and the anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature in the Danube River basin in winter during 1950–2010 are considered. The number of winters with positive and negative precipitation and air temperature anomalies observed during various combinations of the positive and negative

Abstract The analysis of the ERA-Interim atmospheric circulation reanalysis data for the Caspian Sea area is carried out. The possibility of their use for specifying external forcing in a numerical model of thermo- and hydrodynamic processes in the Caspian Seais considered. The quality of these data is estimated based on a comparison with the climate atlases of the sea. The most significant differences

Abstract The possibility of using the Marine Hindcast and Forecast System (MHFS) developed at Zubov State Oceanographic Institute for short-term forecasting of hydrometeorological and ice characteristics of the Caspian Sea is demonstrated. The presented implementation of the system is based on the regional nonhydrostatic atmospheric model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model) and model of marine

Abstract The characteristics of the сumulonimbus cloud with waterspout that has passed over the Gulf of Finland are analyzed. The characteristics were obtained from polarimetric Doppler weather radar, radiometer, and lightning detector data. The waterspout was formed close to the cyclone center. The analysis of instability indices revealed high atmospheric instability. The sinking of the rotational

Abstract The results of analyzing trends in air temperature and humidity anomalies in the lower atmospheric layer of 0–2 km over the Russian Arctic in 1964–2016 are presented. The calculations are based on the CARDS aerological dataset complemented with current data. It is shown that the air temperature rise in the lower atmospheric layer (0–2 km) over the Russian Arctic is accompanied by an increase