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The Ground‐Motion Characterization Model for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Brendon A. Bradley, Sanjay S. Bora, Robin L. Lee, Elena F. Manea, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Peter J. Stafford, Gail M. Atkinson, Graeme Weatherill, Jesse Hutchinson, Christopher A. de la Torre, Anne M. Hulsey, Anna E. Kaiser
This article summarizes the ground‐motion characterization (GMC) model component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2022 NZ NSHM). The model development process included establishing a NZ‐specific context through the creation of a new ground‐motion database, and consideration of alternative ground‐motion models (GMMs) that have been historically used in NZ or have been recently
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Panel Review of the USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Thomas H. Jordan, Norm Abrahamson, John G. Anderson, Glenn Biasi, Ken Campbell, Tim Dawson, Heather DeShon, Matthew Gerstenberger, Nick Gregor, Keith Kelson, Yajie Lee, Nicolas Luco, Warner Marzocchi, Badie Rowshandel, David Schwartz, Nilesh Shome, Gabriel Toro, Ray Weldon, Ivan Wong
This report documents the assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF) Review Panel of the draft ERF for the conterminous United States (CONUS‐ERF23) proposed for the 2023 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23). Panel members participated with the ERF Development Team in several verification and validation exercises, including spot checks of the hazard
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Upper Plate and Subduction Interface Deformation Models in the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Russ J. Van Dissen, Kaj M. Johnson, Hannu Seebeck, Laura M. Wallace, Chris Rollins, Jeremy Maurer, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Charles A. Williams, Ian J. Hamling, Andrew Howell, Christopher J. DiCaprio
As part of the 2022 revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), deformation models were constructed for the upper plate faults and subduction interfaces that impact ground‐shaking hazard in New Zealand. These models provide the locations, geometries, and slip rates of the earthquake‐producing faults in the NZ NSHM 2022. For upper plate faults, two deformation
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New Magnitude–Area Scaling Relations for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Mark Stirling, Michelle Fitzgerald, Bruce Shaw, Clarissa Ross
We develop new magnitude–area scaling relations for application in the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022) and future applications. A total of 18 published relations are selected, comprising the following tectonic and slip types: crustal strike‐slip (seven relations), reverse (two relations), normal (two relations), subduction interface (five relations), and two dip‐slip relations
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Overview of Site Effects and the Application of the 2022 New Zealand NSHM in the Wellington Basin, New Zealand Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Anna Elizabeth Kaiser, Matt P. Hill, Chris de la Torre, Sanjay Bora, Elena Manea, Liam Wotherspoon, Gail M. Atkinson, Robin Lee, Brendon Bradley, Anne Hulsey, Andrew Stolte, Matt Gerstenberger
We provide an overview of the treatment of site effects in the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM), including a case study of basin effects in central Wellington. The NZ NSHM 2022 includes a change in site parameter from subsoil class (NZS class) to VS30. Poor NZ VS30 characterization is a major source of uncertainty in the NSHM; however, advanced site characterization in Wellington
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Testing and Evaluation of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Mark Stirling, Elena Manea, Matt Gerstenberger, Sanjay Bora
We summarize the work that has been done within the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022) to evaluate and test the updated hazard model and its components against observational data. We undertake a two‐phase analysis to learn about the performance of the hazard model with respect to several limited databases. Phase 1 is the evaluation phase, involving multiple efforts to optimize
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Standardizing Earthquake Magnitudes for the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Annemarie Christophersen, Sandra Bourguignon, David A. Rhoades, Trevor I. Allen, John Ristau, Jerome Salichon, John Christopher Rollins, John Townend, Matthew C. Gerstenberger
The 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model—Te Tauira Matapae Pūmate Rū i Aotearoa—requires an earthquake catalog that ideally measures earthquake size in moment magnitude. However, regional moment tensor solutions, which allow the calculation of moment magnitude MwNZ, were introduced in New Zealand only in 2007. The most reported magnitude in the national New Zealand earthquake
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The Seismicity Rate Model for the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Russ Van Dissen, Chris Rollins, Chris DiCaprio, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijim, Sanjay Bora, Chris Chamberlain, Annemarie Christophersen, Genevieve L. Coffey, Susan M. Ellis, Pablo Iturrieta, Kaj M. Johnson, Nicola J. Litchfield, Andy Nicol, Kevin R. Milner, Sepi J. Rastin, David Rhoades, Hannu Seebeck, Bruce E. Shaw, Mark W. Stirling, Laura Wallace, Trevor I. Allen, Brendon A. Bradley
A seismicity rate model (SRM) has been developed as part of the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision. The SRM consists of many component models, each of which falls into one of two classes: (1) inversion fault model (IFM); or (2) distributed seismicity model (DSM). Here we provide an overview of the SRM and a brief description of each of the component models. The upper plate
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The 2023 New Zealand Ground‐Motion Database Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Jesse A. Hutchinson, Chuanbin Zhu, Brendon A. Bradley, Robin L. Lee, Liam M. Wotherspoon, Michael Dupuis, Claudio Schill, Jason Motha, Elena F. Manea, Anna E. Kaiser
This article summarizes the development of the 2023 New Zealand ground‐motion database (NZGMDB). A preceding version was formally used as the central ground‐motion database in the ground‐motion characterization modeling for the 2022 New Zealand (NZ) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) revision. The database contains ground motions for events with a moment magnitude greater than ∼3.0 from the years
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The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra E. Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Fred F. Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Thompson Jobe, Allison M. Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng‐Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles S. Mueller, Arthur D. Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin
We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic
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Reply to “Comment on ‘Effect of Style of Faulting on the Orientation of Maximum Horizontal Earthquake Response Spectra’ by Alan Poulos and Eduardo Miranda” by Paul Somerville Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Alan Poulos, Eduardo Miranda
We thank Somerville (2023) for the comment on our article (Poulos and Miranda, 2023), which found that the orientation of maximum horizontal spectral response tends to be close to the transverse orientation with respect to the epicenter of strike‐slip earthquakes. Herein, we respond to the main points of the comment, following the order in which they were made.In the comment, Somerville (2023) mentions
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Introduction to the BSSA Special Issue and SRL Focus Section on Seismic Hazard Models Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Allison L. Bent, P. Martin Mai, John Townend
The recent completion of a fundamental revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (New Zealand NSHM) provided the catalyst for a joint BSSA Special Issue and SRL Focus Section on seismic hazard models worldwide. The approaches to NSHMs in different locations are varied and driven by different expertise, different philosophies, different tectonic environments, and different needs of the
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The 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Process, Overview, and Results Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Sanjay Bora, Brendon A. Bradley, Chris DiCaprio, Anna Kaiser, Elena F. Manea, Andy Nicol, Chris Rollins, Mark W. Stirling, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijam, Russ J. Van Dissen, Elizabeth R. Abbott, Gail M. Atkinson, Chris Chamberlain, Annemarie Christophersen, Kate Clark, Genevieve L. Coffey, Chris A. de la Torre, Susan M. Ellis, Jeff Fraser, Kenny Graham, Jonathan Griffin, Ian J.
The 2022 revision of Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022) has involved significant revision of all datasets and model components. In this article, we present a subset of many results from the model as well as an overview of the governance, scientific, and review processes followed by the NZ NSHM team. The calculated hazard from the NZ NSHM 2022 has increased for most of
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Geodetic Strain Rates for the 2022 Update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Jeremy Maurer, Kaj Johnson, Laura M. Wallace, Ian Hamling, Charles A. Williams, Chris Rollins, Matt Gerstenberger, Russ Van Dissen
Geodetic data in plate boundary zones reflect the accrual of tectonic strain and stress, which will ultimately be released in earthquakes, and so they can provide valuable insights into future seismic hazards. To incorporate geodetic measurements of contemporary deformation into the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022), we derive a range of strain‐rate
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New Zealand Fault‐Rupture Depth Model v.1.0: A Provisional Estimate of the Maximum Depth of Seismic Rupture on New Zealand’s Active Faults Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Susan Ellis, Stephen Bannister, Russ Van Dissen, Donna Eberhart‐Phillips, Carolyn Boulton, Martin Reyners, Rob Funnell, Nick Mortimer, Phaedra Upton, Chris Rollins, Hannu Seebeck
We summarize estimates of the maximum rupture depth on New Zealand’s active faults (“New Zealand Fault‐Rupture Depth Model v.1.0”), as used in the New Zealand Community Fault Model v1.0 and as a constraint for the latest revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). Rupture depth estimates are based on a combination of two separate model approaches (using different methods
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A Seismogenic Slab Source Model for Aotearoa New Zealand Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Kiran Kumar Singh Thingbaijam, Matt C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ J. Van Dissen, Sepideh J. Rastin, Annemarie Christophersen, John Ristau, Charles A. Williams, Delphine D. Fitzenz, Marco Pagani
Intraslab seismicity within the Hikurangi and Puysegur subduction zones constitutes >50% of recorded (Mw≥4.0 events) earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand. Here, we develop a source model for intraslab seismicity using recently augmented datasets including models of subduction interface geometries, an earthquake catalog, and a regional moment tensor catalog. For the areal zones of uniform seismicity
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The Magnitude–Frequency Distributions of Earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand and on Adjoining Subduction Zones, Using a New Integrated Earthquake Catalog Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Chris Rollins, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, David A. Rhoades, Sepideh J. Rastin, Annemarie Christophersen, Kiran Kumar S. Thingbaijam, Russell J. Van Dissen, Kenny Graham, Chris DiCaprio, Jeff Fraser
Using a new integrated earthquake catalog for Aotearoa New Zealand (described in a companion article), we estimate the magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) of earthquakes in the greater New Zealand region and along the Hikurangi–Kermadec and Puysegur subduction zones. These are key inputs into the seismicity rate model (SRM) component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The MFDs
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Accounting for the Variability of Earthquake Rates within Low‐Seismicity Regions: Application to the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ Van Dissen, Ting Wang, Danijel Schorlemmer
The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary, which could hinder a robust statistical analysis, particularly in low‐seismicity regions with limited data. This work investigates the performance of stationary Poisson and spatially precise forecasts, such as smoothed seismicity models (SSMs), in terms of the available training data. Catalog bootstrap experiments are conducted
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Implementing Non‐Poissonian Forecasts of Distributed Seismicity into the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ Van Dissen, Ting Wang, Danijel Schorlemmer
Seismicity usually exhibits a non‐Poisson spatiotemporal distribution and could undergo nonstationary processes. However, the Poisson assumption is still deeply rooted in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis models, especially when input catalogs must be declustered to obtain a Poisson background rate. In addition, nonstationary behavior and scarce earthquake records in regions of low seismicity
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Time‐Independent Grid‐Based Forecast Model for M ≥6.0 Earthquakes in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Using GNSS Strain Rates and Seismicity Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Cong‐Min Wei, Guo‐Jie Meng, Wei‐Wei Wu, Xue‐Liang Chen, Meng Zhang, Guo‐Qiang Zhao, Zhi‐Hua Dong, Yan‐Cong Yang
Earthquake forecasting models play a vital role in earthquake occurrence assessment. Despite improved availability of seismic and geodetic data and processing techniques to produce high‐resolution catalogs and deformation history, the implementation of earthquake forecasting models with seismic and geodetic data remains a challenge. In this study, we utilize seismicity and Global Navigation Satellite
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Subduction Interface Earthquake Rise‐Time Scaling Relations Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Diego R. Cárdenas, Matthew Miller, Gonzalo A. Montalva
The slip duration in a fault plane, also known as the rise time (Tr), is determined in finite‐fault rupture models (FFRMs) through the analysis of seismic source inversions using strong ground‐motion (SGM) records and teleseismic data. For subduction interface earthquakes (megathrust), models exist that provide estimates for Tr values. The finite‐source rupture model database and National Earthquake
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Evaluation of Empirical Ground‐Motion Models for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Revision Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Robin L. Lee, Brendon A. Bradley, Elena F. Manea, Jesse A. Hutchinson, Sanjay S. Bora
This article presents an evaluation of empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs) for active shallow crustal, subduction interface, and subduction slab earthquakes using a recently developed New Zealand (NZ) ground‐motion database for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision. This study considers both NZ‐specific and global models, which require evaluation to inform of their applicability
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Backbone Ground‐Motion Models for Crustal, Interface, and Slab Earthquakes in New Zealand from Equivalent Point‐Source Concepts Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Gail M. Atkinson
A ground‐motion model (GMM) that strikes a balance between empirical and simulation‐based approaches is developed in support of the 2022 update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The development follows the backbone approach, comprising a central model to express the median ground motions for earthquakes in New Zealand (NZ), along with upper and lower alternatives to describe its epistemic
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Capturing Directivity in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for New Zealand: Challenges, Implications, and a Machine Learning Approach for Implementation Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Graeme Weatherill, Henning Lilienkamp
The proximity of fast‐slipping crustal faults to urban areas may result in pulse‐like ground motions from rupture directivity, which can contribute to increased levels of damage even for engineered structures. Systematic modeling of directivity within probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) remains challenging to implement at the regional scale, despite the availability of directivity models in
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Hazard Sensitivities Associated with Ground‐Motion Characterization Modeling for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Revision 2022 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Sanjay S. Bora, Brendon A. Bradley, Elena F. Manea, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Robin L. Lee, Peter J. Stafford, Gail M. Atkinson, Anna Kaiser, Christopher J. DiCaprio, Russell J. Van Dissen
This article summarizes hazard sensitivities associated with the updated ground‐motion characterization modeling (GMCM) scheme adopted in the recent revision of New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). In terms of impact on ground‐motion hazard, the current GMCM scheme (GMCM 2022) results in an overall, at times significant, increase in calculated mean hazard with respect to NZ NSHM
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Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Seismic Sequences Based on Hybrid Renewal Process Models Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Ming‐Yang Xu, Da‐Gang Lu, Wei Zhou
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a methodology with a long history and has been widely implemented. However, in the conventional PSHA and sequence‐based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (SPSHA) approaches, the occurrence of mainshocks is modeled as the homogeneous Poisson process, which is unsuitable for large earthquakes. To account for the stationary occurrence of small‐to‐moderate
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A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field
We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected
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Comment on “Effect of Style of Faulting on the Orientation of Maximum Horizontal Earthquake Response Spectra” by Alan Poulos and Eduardo Miranda Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Paul Somerville
Poulos and Miranda (2023) have recently examined the effect of the style of faulting on the orientation of recorded maximum horizontal response spectra spanning an extensive distance range. Using a point source model of the earthquake source, they find that the tangential (transverse) component of horizontal ground motion with reference to the epicenter, rather than the strike‐normal component, is
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Erratum to Complex Crustal Deformation Controlled by the 3D Geometry of the Chile Subduction Zone Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Marco T. Herrera, Jorge G. F. Crempien, José Cembrano
The authors of Herrera et al. (2023) note the following errors in their original article: Location of Error . Original Text . Revised Text . Third key point The upper plate deformation is consistent with radially from fault‐oriented normal and strike‐slip faults Crustal faults representing upper plate deformation form an arcuate pattern around persistent rupture zones Abstract N20°W–50° W/N60°SW N20°W–50°
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A Site‐Response Model for the Vertical Component of Ground‐Motion Prediction Equation Using a New Site‐Response Parameter TVH Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Shihong Bai, John X. Zhao
This study presents an alternate site‐response model to the existing ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) from our previous study with some calibration to the magnitude term. We used a new site‐response proxy TVH=4×max(30,HB)/VS30 that combines VS30 (the travel‐time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to 30 m depth) with the engineering bedrock depth HB. VS30 is available for many strong‐motion recording
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A Detailed View of the 2020–2023 Southwestern Puerto Rico Seismic Sequence with Deep Learning Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Clara E. Yoon, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Elizabeth A. Vanacore, Victor Huerfano, Gisela Báez‐Sánchez, John D. Wilding, Jonathan Smith
The 2020–2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence, still ongoing in 2023, is remarkable for its multiple‐fault rupture complexity and elevated aftershock productivity. We applied an automatic workflow to continuous data from 43 seismic stations in Puerto Rico to build an enhanced earthquake catalog with ∼180,000 events for the 3+ yr sequence from 28 December 2019 to 1 January 2023. This workflow
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Complex Crustal Deformation Controlled by the 3D Geometry of the Chile Subduction Zone Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Marco T. Herrera, Jorge G. F. Crempien, José Cembrano
The Chilean subduction zone hosts Mw>8 earthquakes, which could trigger earthquakes on crustal faults located along the plate margin. Using synthetic earthquakes from a quasi‐dynamic boundary element method model, we obtain traction fields and perform a slip tendency analysis to obtain synthetic faults, which we compare with existing potentially seismogenic crustal faults. With our results, we find
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Modification of Ground‐Motion Models to Estimate Orientation‐Dependent Horizontal Response Spectra in Strike‐Slip Earthquakes Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Alan Poulos, Eduardo Miranda
A model to estimate the 5% damped response spectra of horizontal components at specific orientations is presented. The model, which explicitly accounts for directionality, is based on prior research by the authors that identified that the orientation of maximum horizontal spectral response at a site in strike‐slip earthquakes tends to occur at or close to the transverse orientation with respect to
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Analyzing the Temporal Variation in Macroseismic Intensity Rating Values and Predicting Macroseismic Intensity on the Tibetan Plateau Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Zhenbiao Liu, Yanxiang Yu, Liang Xiao
China has relatively rich macroseismic isoseismal maps, which play an important role in seismic hazard analysis and the development of reliable earthquake loss models. The macroseismic intensity is assessed based on the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale, which is constantly being revised as research progresses and the seismic defense capability is enhanced. To investigate whether intensity rating values
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Seismogenic Structure of the Hidden Haicheng Fault System in China Revealed by Seismic Observations from 2008 to 2018 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Pengda Zhang, Zhiyang Dai, Shichao Yang, Xianjie Zha
The hidden Haicheng fault system is an earthquake‐prone zone on the Liaodong Peninsula, China. Its seismogenic structure is still unclear and needs further study. In this study, we used the differential evolution algorithm to invert the waveform data of the 2008 ML 4.8 Haicheng earthquake and the 2012 ML 4.8 Gaizhou earthquake and obtained an updated 1D crustal velocity model. The model reveals a low‐velocity
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Earthquake Forecasting Using Big Data and Artificial Intelligence: A 30‐Week Real‐Time Case Study in China Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Omar M. Saad, Yunfeng Chen, Alexandros Savvaidis, Sergey Fomel, Xiuxuan Jiang, Dino Huang, Yapo Abolé Serge Innocent Oboué, Shanshan Yong, Xin’an Wang, Xing Zhang, Yangkang Chen
Earthquake forecasting is one of the most challenging tasks in the field of seismology that aims to save human life and mitigate catastrophic damages. We have designed a real‐time earthquake forecasting framework to forecast earthquakes and tested it in seismogenic regions in southwestern China. The input data are the features provided by the multicomponent seismic monitoring system acoustic electromagnetic
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Slip Deficit Rates on Southern Cascadia Faults Resolved with Viscoelastic Earthquake Cycle Modeling of Geodetic Deformation Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Kathryn Materna, Jessica R. Murray, Fred Pollitz, Jason R. Patton
The fore‐arc of the southern Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), north of the Mendocino triple junction (MTJ), is home to a network of Quaternary‐active crustal faults that accumulate strain due to the interaction of the North American, Juan de Fuca (Gorda), and Pacific plates. These faults, including the Little Salmon and Mad River fault (LSF and MRF) zones, are located near the most populated parts of
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A Methodology to Combine Shaking and Ground Failure Models for Forecasting Seismic Damage to Buried Pipeline Networks Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Neal Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal
How does an earthquake affect buried pipeline networks? It is well known that the seismic performance of buried pipelines depends on ground failures (GFs) as well as strong ground shaking (SGS), but it is unclear how the various types of earthquake hazards should be collectively combined, as existing methodologies tend to examine each of the earthquake hazards separately. In this article, we develop
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A New Paradigm for Structural Characterization, including Rotational Measurements at a Single Site Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Yara Rossi, Konstantinos Tatsis, John Clinton, Eleni Chatzi, Markus Rothacher
In this article, we demonstrate that a single station can be used to measure the dynamic properties of a structure. The station includes a collocated accelerometer and rotational sensor, hence, can record both three‐component translation and three‐component rotation and is referred to as the 6C‐station within this study. The key advantage of this approach is to provide a fast and simple path to a comprehensive
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Fractal Slope‐Based Seismic Wave Detection Method Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Changwei Yang, Kaiwen Zhang, Dongsheng Wu, Zhifang Zhang, Ke Su, Liming Qu, Liang Zhang
Automatic P‐wave arrival detection is the first task in an earthquake early warning systems. This study proposes a novel detection method for this based on a fractal slope (FS). We improved the calculation method of the fractal dimension to increase the calculation speed and proposed a continuous algorithm. Furthermore, we applied FS in conjunction with the short‐term average over the long‐term average
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The 2022 Ms 5.8 and 6.0 Maerkang Earthquakes: Two Strike‐Slip Events Occurred on V‐Shaped Faults Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Ting Yang, Ke Jia, Aiyu Zhu, Shiguang Wang, Lihua Fang
Within four hours on 10 June 2022, three consecutive earthquakes of Ms≥5.0 with a maximum magnitude up to Ms 6.0 struck Maerkang, Sichuan, where is supposedly less prone to earthquakes. This article uses seismic observations recorded by the Sichuan Seismic Network to relocate the earthquake sequences and refine velocity models in Maerkang using a double‐difference seismic tomography method. The results
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Reactivation of Precambrian Faults by Deep Wastewater Injection in Midland Basin, Texas, and Performance Evaluation of Seismic Response Areas Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Jeong‐Ung Woo, William L. Ellsworth
Fluid injection associated with oil field operations can induce earthquakes through perturbation to the balance between fault strength and tectonic stress. Induced seismicity generally does not respond immediately to changes in injection due to time‐delayed diffusion of pressure and heterogeneous prestress conditions on seismogenic faults. After exploitation for over a century without significant seismicity
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A Statistical Approach to Estimate Seismic Monitoring Stations’ Biases and Error Levels Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Yael Radzyner, Meirav Galun, Boaz Nadler
Magnitudes are common and important measures for the size of seismic events. The International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test Ban Treaty Organization estimates an event magnitude by averaging the magnitudes calculated by individual stations that detected the event, excluding outliers. This approach assumes that all station magnitudes have the same error level and are unbiased,
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Effects on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates That Result from Nonuniqueness in Declustering an Earthquake Catalog Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 John G. Anderson, Ilya Zaliapin
Declustering a seismicity catalog to obtain a background seismicity model for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is not a uniquely defined process. Zaliapin and Ben‐Zion (2020) present a method for randomly thinning a complete catalog by removing nearest‐neighbor earthquakes. The number of events in the residual catalog depends on a continuous parameter, α0, called the “cluster threshold.” Varying
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Hard‐Rock κ0 at KiK‐Net Sites in Japan Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Annabel Haendel, Marco Pilz, Fabrice Cotton
Site‐specific seismic hazard studies require the knowledge of the shear‐wave velocity VS and the high‐frequency site attenuation parameter κ0 at the reference rock level at depth. The latter one (called κ0,ref) is often not available and hard to derive. In this study, we make use of the KiK‐net database in Japan that consists of surface and colocated downhole sensors. We select 175 sites where the
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Comment on “A New Decade in Seismoacoustics (2010–2022)” by Fransiska Dannemann Dugick, Clinton Koch, Elizabeth Berg, Stephen Arrowsmith, and Sarah Albert Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Adam T. Ringler, Robert E. Anthony, Brian Shiro, Toshiro Tanimoto, David C. Wilson
An increase in seismic stations also having microbarographs has led to increased interest in the field of seismoacoustics. A review of the recent advances in this field can be found in Dannemann Dugick et al. (2023). The goal of this note is to draw the attention of the readers of Dannemann Dugick et al. (2023) to several additional interactions between the solid Earth and atmosphere that have not
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Implementation of Iwan‐Type Nonlinear Rheology in a 3D High‐Order Staggered‐Grid Finite‐Difference Method Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Daniel Roten, Te‐Yang Yeh, Kim B. Olsen, Steven M. Day, Yifeng Cui
We have implemented and verified a parallel‐series Iwan‐type nonlinear model in a 3D fourth‐order staggered‐grid velocity–stress finite‐difference method. The Masing unloading and reloading behavior is simulated by tracking an overlay of concentric von Mises yield surfaces. Lamé parameters and failure stresses pertaining to each surface are calibrated to reproduce the stress–strain backbone curve,
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Subregional Anelastic Attenuation Model for California Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Tristan E. Buckreis, Jonathan P. Stewart, Scott J. Brandenberg, Pengfei Wang
Ground‐motion models (GMMs) typically include a source‐to‐site path model that describes the attenuation of ground motion with distance due to geometric spreading and anelastic attenuation. In contemporary GMMs, the anelastic component is typically derived for use in one or more broad geographical regions such as California or Japan, which necessarily averages spatially variable path effects within
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A Deep‐Learning Phase Picker with Calibrated Bayesian‐Derived Uncertainties for Earthquakes in the Yellowstone Volcanic Region Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Alysha D. Armstrong, Zachary Claerhout, Ben Baker, Keith D. Koper
Traditional seismic phase pickers perform poorly during periods of elevated seismicity due to inherent weakness when detecting overlapping earthquake waveforms. This weakness results in incomplete seismic catalogs, particularly deficient in earthquakes that are close in space and time. Supervised deep‐learning (DL) pickers allow for improved detection performance and better handle the overlapping waveforms
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ArrayNet: A Combined Seismic Phase Classification and Back‐Azimuth Regression Neural Network for Array Processing Pipelines Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Andreas Köhler, Erik B. Myklebust
Array processing is an integral part of automatic seismic event detection pipelines for measuring apparent velocity and backazimuth of seismic arrivals. Both quantities are usually measured under the plane‐wave assumption, and are essential to classify the phase type and to determine the direction toward the event epicenter. However, structural inhomogeneities can lead to deviations from the plane‐wave
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Predictive Models for Seismic Source Parameters Based on Machine Learning and General Orthogonal Regression Approaches Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Qing‐Yang Liu, Dian‐Qing Li, Xiao‐Song Tang, Wenqi Du
Two sets of predictive models are developed based on the machine learning (ML) and general orthogonal regression (GOR) approaches for predicting the seismic source parameters including rupture width, rupture length, rupture area, and two slip parameters (i.e., the average and maximum slips of rupture surface). The predictive models are developed based on a compiled catalog consisting of 1190 sets of
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The 28 October 2022 Mw 3.8 Goesan Earthquake Sequence in Central Korea: Stress Drop, Aftershock Triggering, and Fault Interaction Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Won‐Young Kim, Min‐Seong Seo, Jun Yong Park, Sangwoo Han, Young Oh Son, YoungHee Kim
We identified the causative fault of the 2022 Goesan, Korea, earthquake sequence based on the precise relocation of the sequence that revealed a 0.8 km‐long fault plane striking east‐southeast–west‐northwest. The fault plane encompasses the largest foreshock, the mainshock, and the majority of the aftershocks. The orientation of the fault plane is consistent with the left‐lateral strike‐slip motion
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Geologic and Geophysical Evidence of Repeated Normal Faulting on the Itozawa Fault—the Source of the Mw 6.6 Iwaki Earthquake Triggered by the Mw 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki Megathrust Earthquake, Northeast Japan Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Haruo Kimura, Hiroyuki Tsutsumi
The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake ruptured the 500 km long and 200 km wide convergent plate margin between the North American and Pacific plates, and changed the crustal stress field and triggered widespread seismic activity in northeast Japan. In particular, many crustal earthquakes struck the southern Fukushima area. The largest inland normal‐faulting earthquake with Mw 6.6 occurred on the northwest‐trending
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3D Wave Propagation Simulations of Mw 6.5+ Earthquakes on the Tacoma Fault, Washington State, Considering the Effects of Topography, a Geotechnical Gradient, and a Fault Damage Zone Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Ian Stone, Erin A. Wirth, Alex Grant, Arthur D. Frankel
We simulate shaking in Tacoma, Washington, and surrounding areas from Mw 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes on the Tacoma fault. Ground motions are directly modeled up to 2.5 Hz using kinematic, finite‐fault sources; a 3D seismic velocity model considering regional geology; and a model mesh with 30 m sampling at the ground surface. In addition, we explore how adjustments to the seismic velocity model affect predicted
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Soil–Structure Interaction Effects on a Regional Scale through Ground‐Motion Simulations and Reduced Order Models: A Case Study from the 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills Mainshock Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Danilo S. Kusanovic, Ricardo Taborda, Domniki Asimaki
We demonstrate the effects of soil–structure interaction (SSI) for three idealized building typologies on a regional scale, using a simulated earthquake scenario of the 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills mainshock in southern California as an example. All the three buildings lie on shallow foundations, and they are subject to three‐component simulated ground motions. To carry out this task, we develop a reduced
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Uncertainties in Broadband Determination of the High‐Frequency Spectral Decay, Kappa, in Eastern Canada Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Samantha M. Palmer, Gail M. Atkinson
Kappa (the high‐frequency spectral decay slope at near‐source distances; often referred to as κ0) is determined at 25 seismograph stations in Eastern Canada using broadband ground‐motion modeling approaches. The database comprises Fourier spectra (effective amplitude spectrum for the horizontal component and the vertical component, 0.8–40 Hz) computed from 3318 earthquakes of moment magnitude M 1
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Ideal‐Pulse‐Based Strong‐Motion Duration for Multi‐Pulse Near‐Fault Records Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Xiao‐yu Chen, Dong‐sheng Wang, Rui Zhang, Zhi‐guo Sun, Wei Guo, Binbin Li
Serious damage to near‐fault structures is caused mainly by velocity pulses in a ground motion, hence, the necessity to develop a pulse‐related definition of strong‐motion duration to adequately describe the intensity of near‐fault ground motion. For a multipulse record, an ideal‐pulse‐based strong‐motion duration, which is defined as the time interval between the beginning of the first pulse and the
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Displacement Hazard from Distributed Ruptures in Strike‐Slip Earthquakes Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Alba Mar Rodriguez Padilla, Michael E. Oskin
Widespread distributed fracturing during earthquakes threatens infrastructure and lifelines. We combine high‐resolution rupture maps from the five major surface‐rupturing strike‐slip earthquakes in southern California and northern Mexico since 1992 to incorporate the displacements produced by distributed ruptures into a probabilistic displacement hazard analysis framework. Through analysis of the spatial
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Direct Image Dissimilarity Inversion of Ambient Noise Multimodal Dispersion Spectrograms Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Qi Liu, Xiaofei Chen, Lina Gao, Zhenjiang Yu, Juqing Chen
The frequency–Bessel transform (F–J) method, which can reliably provide multimodal surface‐wave dispersion spectrograms from recorded ambient noise, has been applied in many studies of the earth’s velocity structure. However, extracting dispersion curves and determining their roots can be challenging. To circumvent these challenges, we present a new, objective spectrum inversion scheme for multimodal
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Afterslip on Conjugate Faults of the 2020 Mw 6.3 Nima Earthquake in the Central Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from InSAR Measurements Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Shunying Hong, Mian Liu, Xin Zhou, Guojie Meng, Yanfang Dong
Afterslip could help to reveal seismogenic fault structure. The 2020 Mw 6.3 Nima earthquake happened in a pull‐apart basin within the Qiangtang block, central Tibetan plateau. Previous studies have explained the coseismic and early (<6 mo) postseismic deformation by rupture and afterslip on a normal fault bounding the western side of the basin. Here, we resolved the 19‐month Interferometric Synthetic