This study examines the variability of the ionospheric content during the period around the 2015 Saint Patrick magnetic storm and when Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) are observed during the quiet time over South America during two other events. It uses the ionospheric scales index map based on the Disturbance Ionospheric indeX (DIX). The results are compared to the traces of the ionograms obtained

The present work shows the preliminary results from the analysis for developing an ionospheric scales index map based on the Disturbance Ionospheric Index (DIX). This index aims to target all the different user groups affected by ionospheric disturbances, e.g. the navigation, positioning, and satellite communication users, in a simple and straightforward approach. Therefore, we used the Vertical TEC

Prediction of ionospheric state is a critical space weather problem. We expand on our previous research of medium‐range ionospheric forecasts and present new results on evaluating prediction capabilities of three physics‐based ionosphere‐thermosphere models (TIE‐GCM, CTIPe and GITM). The focus of our study is understanding how current modeling approaches may predict the global ionosphere for geomagnetic

Accurate ionospheric specification for the current and future is one of the key tasks in operational space weather. In this work, we have assessed the effect of a dense ground network consisting of different radio instruments either developed or under developing on ionosphere nowcasting and forecasting over China and adjacent region (0oN – 60oN and 70oE – 140oE) through observing system simulation

No abstract is available for this article

An important location for future space weather monitoring is the Lagrange point 5 (L5) of the Sun‐‐Earth system. We test the performance of L5 for space weather monitoring using STEREO~B observations of an Earth‐directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), seen as a partial halo by SOHO at L1. STEREO~B (located close to L5) continuously tracked the CME. By using these data in combination with methods to calculate

Understanding extreme space weather events is of paramount importance in efforts to protect technological systems in space and on the ground. Particularly in the thermosphere, the subsequent extreme magnetic storms can pose serious threats to low‐Earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft by intensifying errors in orbit predictions. Extreme magnetic storms (minimum Dst ≤ ‑‑‑250 nT) are extremely rare: only 7 events

Recent solar conditions indicate a persistent decline in solar activity‐‐‐possibly similar to the past solar grand minima. During such periods of low solar activity, the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) increase remarkably, presenting a hazard for long‐term crewed space missions. We used data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter

Geosynchronous satellites are exposed to the relativistic electrons, which may cause irreparable damage to the satellites. The prediction of the relativistic electron flux is therefore important for the safety of the satellites. Unlike previous works focusing on the single‐value prediction of relativistic electron flux, we predict the relativistic electron flux in a probabilistic approach by using

The issue of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on large distance ground‐based conductive systems is a global space weather concern nowadays. The low‐latitude power grids are becoming more vulnerable to GICs hazards due to their increasing scale and degree of interconnection. Thus GICs measurement and modeling in these systems is of great importance. In this study, we present an analysis of the

Accurate forecast of the thermospheric density is critical to the space community. The data assimilation approach that based on the self‐consistent upper‐atmosphere model may provide better predictive capability of the coupled thermosphere system. In this study, a physics‐based assimilation system (hereafter referred to as PIDA) that is based on the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation

We develop a mixed long short‐term memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24‐hr time window 0–24, 6–30, 12–36, and 24–48 hr ahead of time using 6, 12, 24, and 48 hr of data (predictors) for each Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Active Region Patch (HARP). The model makes use of (1) the Space‐Weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters as predictors

Ionospheric scintillation is an interference characterized by rapid and random fluctuations in radio frequency signals when passing through irregularities in the ionosphere. It can severely degrade the performance of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, thus increasing positioning errors. Receivers with different tracking loop bandwidths and coherent integration times perform differently

Modeling the space weather conditions for a near‐Earth environment depends on a proper representation of magnetic fields on the Sun. There are discussions in the community with respect to the value of observations taken at several Lagrangian points (L1–L5) in the Sun‐Earth system. Observations from a single (e.g., Earth/L1) vantage point are insufficient to characterize rapid changes in magnetic field

The occurrence of St. Patricks day (17 March) geomagnetic storms during two different years (2013 and 2015) with similar solar flux levels but varying storm intensity provided an opportunity to compare and contrast the responses of the Ionosphere‐Thermosphere (IT) system to different levels of geomagnetic activity. The evolution of positive ionospheric storms at the southern polar stations Bharati

The Space Ionizing Radiation Environment and Effects (SIRE2) toolkit has been developed to update and extend the tools used by the space and radiation effects community. It includes new environment models, the capability to examine how the environment changes along satellite and other trajectories and batch processing capabilities for both environments and radiation effects on electronics. An overview

On 25 May 1928 the airship “Dirigibile Italia” during its return trip to the base in NyAlesund, after overflying the North Pole, shipwrecked on the ice‐pack in a region at about 400 km northeast of Svalbard Islands. Survivors, by using a portable high frequency (HF) radio transmitter, tried unsuccessfully to send SOS messages and to establish a radio link with the ship “Città di Milano” of the Italian

The chromospheric Lyman‐alpha line of neutral hydrogen (Lyα ; 1216 Å) is the strongest emission line in the solar spectrum. Fluctuations in Lyα are known to drive changes in planetary atmospheres, although few instruments have had the ability to capture rapid Lyα enhancements during solar flares. In this paper, we describe flare‐associated emissions via a statistical study of 477 M‐ and X‐class flares

The low‐latitude ionospheric TEC observed by the Beidou geostationary satellite showed large enhancement during 27–30 August 2018 of the storm recovery phase. The cause of the positive ionospheric storm during the recovery phase has yet to be resolved. In this study, multiple observations, including aurora, high‐latitude convection, potential, and the TEC maps, were used to study the contributions

Global Positioning System (GPS) L1 amplitude data, obtained using the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during the period 2008‐2018, is used to study the seasonal and solar cycle dependence of high latitude amplitude scintillation. The occurrence of amplitude scintillation is predominantly confined to the 10‐18 Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and 72°‐87° Altitude‐Adjusted Corrected Geo‐Magnetic

Faraday's law of induction is responsible for setting up a geoelectric field due to the variations in the geomagnetic field caused by ionospheric currents. This drives Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which flow in large ground‐based technological infrastructure such as high voltage power lines. The geoelectric field is often a localized phenomenon exhibiting significant variations over spatial

No abstract is available for this article

Following a panel discussion at the 2019 AGU Fall Meeting with an atypical gender ratio, we discuss the diversity and inclusion (D&I) initiatives at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center with Deputy Director for the Heliophysics Science Division, Dr. Antti Pulkkinen. We focus on gender diversity and efforts by AGU to promote D&I and how it applies specifically to the Space Physics and Aeronomy (SPA) section

We present a methodology to define moderate, strong, and intense space weather events based on probability distributions. We have illustrated this methodology using a long‐duration, uniform data set of 1.8‐3.5 MeV electron fluxes from multiple LANL geosynchronous satellite instruments but a strength of this methodology is that it can be applied uniformly to heterogeneous data sets. It allows quantitative

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) during a space weather event have previously caused transformer damage in New Zealand. During the 2015 St Patrick's Day Storm, Transpower NZ Ltd have reliable GIC measurements at 23 different transformers across New Zealand's South Island. These observed GICs show large variability, spatially and within a substation. We compare these GICs with those calculated

One of the main goals when studying Space Weather is to characterize extreme events occurrences and related characteristics. To do so, dedicated statistical methods from the so‐called extreme value analysis (EVA) field have been developed. In this study we used Ca index, derived from aa, in order to characterize geoeffectiveness from the radiation belts point of view with a 150‐year‐long data set.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares can accelerate high fluxes of energetic particles. Depending on where this solar activity occurs on the sun, these outward moving particles can reach the Earth and enter the Earth’s magnetosphere. They can also strike manmade objects in space. If the electronics in space are not protected from these energetic particles, they can cause the spacecraft to

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are quasi‐DC electric currents that flow in technological conductors during geomagnetic storms. Extreme GICs are hazardous to man‐made infrastructure. GICs enter and exit the technological systems, such as the electric power grid, at grounding points, and their magnitudes depend on the currents that flow underground. They are, therefore, a function of the Earth's

Emanating from the base of the Sun's corona, the solar wind fills the interplanetary medium with a magnetized stream of charged particles whose interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere has space‐weather consequences such as geomagnetic storms. Accurately predicting the solar wind through measurements of the spatio‐temporally evolving conditions in the solar atmosphere is important but remains an

The flux of > 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is used by space weather forecasters as a key indicator of enhanced risk of damage to spacecraft in low, medium or geosynchronous Earth orbits. We present a methodology that uses the amount of time a single input dataset (solar wind data or geomagnetic indices) exceeds a given threshold to produce deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the

Severe geomagnetic storms are driven by the coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Consequently, there has been a great deal of focus on predicting if and when a CME will arrive in near‐Earth space. However, it is useful to step back and ask, “How value is this information, in isolation, useful for making decisions to mitigate against the adverse effects of space weather?” While all severe geomagnetic storms

The equivalent source method of Spherical Elementary Current Systems (SECS) has contributed valuable results for spatial magnetic interpolation purposes where no observations are available, as well as for modeling equivalent currents both in the ionosphere and in the subsurface, thus providing a separation between external and internal sources. It has been successfully applied to numerous Space Weather

No abstract is available for this article

The ionospheric sporadic‐E (Es) layer occasionally causes anomalous propagation (AP) of VHF radio waves to distant locations. This effect, EsAP, may cause interference to VHF radio operation above 100 MHz. Recent study showed that VHF air‐navigation signals from distant stations are frequently observed when Es occurs. The observed frequencies includes channels of VHF omnidirectional radio range (VOR)

We present a multi‐instrumental study of ionospheric irregularities of different scales (from tens of centimeters to few kilometers) observed over the Central and East Siberia, Russia, during a moderate‐to‐strong geomagnetic storm on 27–28 May 2017. From high‐frequency (HF) and ultrahigh‐frequency (UHF) radar data, we observed an intense auroral backscatter developed right after the initial phase of

Space weather phenomena such as scintillations of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals are of increasing importance for aviation, the maritime, and civil engineering industries. The ionospheric plasma irregularities causing scintillations are associated with strong gradients in ionospheric plasma density. To provide nowcasts and forecasts of space weather effects, it is vital to monitor

Utilizing the DEMETER observations at 670km, we examined the day‐night difference of energetic electrons (100 – 800keV) in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region and their dependence on geomagnetic activities in different seasons. Under geomagnetically quiet conditions, the fluxes of higher‐energy electrons (> 200keV) in the dusk and midnight (MLT ~ 19 – 24hr) are usually larger than those in the

Geomagnetic storms produce significant electrodynamics at mid‐latitudes. Strong ion convection can affect thermospheric neutral wind motion. The converse is also true, such that both fields and winds can drive ionospheric plasma movement. This work adjusts a background modeled high‐latitude electrostatic potential to estimate the storm‐time electric field based on data‐derived plasma densities and

The Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) model estimates solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field polarity in the inner heliosphere using global photospheric magnetic field maps. WSA employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to determine the Sun's global coronal magnetic field. The PFSS and SCS models are connected through two radial parameters, the source

The Falcon Solid‐state Energetic Electron Detector (FalconSEED) is an energetic charged particle sensor that has been developed and tested at the United States Air Force Academy in an effort to monitor electron flux across the energy range of 14 to 145 keV in geosynchronous orbit. This sensor has been developed to complement ongoing efforts by the Air Force Research Laboratory to advance a comprehensive

We present detailed analysis of the global relativistic electron dynamics as measured by total radiation belt content (RBC) during coronal mass ejection (CME) and corotating interaction region (CIR)‐driven geomagnetic storms. Recent work has demonstrated that the response of the outer radiation belt is consistent and repeatable during geomagnetic storms. Here we build on this work to show that radiation

The magnetic fields of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which originate close to the Sun in the form of a flux rope, determine their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, robust flux rope‐based models of CMEs are required to perform magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations aimed at space weather predictions. We propose a modified spheromak model and demonstrate its applicability to CME simulations

It is important to confirm the accuracy and reliability of commonly used ionosphere models climatologically. In this contribution, International Global Navigation Satellite System Global Ionospheric Maps (IGSG) and two empirical models, that is, NeQuick2 and IRI‐2016, are assessed in detail by applying different assessment methods, for example, Jason2/3 ionospheric data, difference of Slant Total Electron

Late 2019 and early 2020 have witnessed numerous developments regarding future interplanetary space weather missions in Europe and in the United States. In parallel, space weather‐related legislation is being considered in the United States. A summary of these developments is presented, and two related topical issues of Space Weather are introduced.

The integrated Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer ‐ Reflight (iMESA‐R) is a space weather instrument designed to measure plasma density, temperature, and spacecraft charging, along with total ionizing dose and dose rate. A constellation consisting of five, nearly identical instruments, has been designed and developed to act as science payloads hosted on‐board Department of Defense (DoD) satellites

Geomagnetic storms resulting from high‐speed streams can have significant negative impacts on modern infrastructure due to complex interactions between the solar wind and geomagnetic field. One measure of the extent of this effect is the Kyoto Dst index. We present a method to predict Dst from data measured at the Lagrange 5 (L5) point, which allows for forecasts of solar wind development 4.5 days

In this paper extreme value theory (EVT) has been used to estimate the return levels for geomagnetic activity based on the aa index. The aa index is the longest, continuously recorded, geomagnetic dataset (from 1868 – Present). This long, 150 year, dataset is an ideal candidate for extreme value analysis. However the data are not independent and identically distributed as required for EVT since they

In this study, we make a model, which is called DeepIRI, to generate improved International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) total electron content (TEC) maps by deep learning based on conditional Generative Adversarial Networks. For this we consider 48,901 pairs of IRI TEC maps and International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) TEC maps from 2001 to 2011 for training the model. We

Because of the limited coverage of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers, total electron content (TEC) maps are not complete. The processing to obtain complete TEC maps is time consuming and needs the collaboration of five international GNSS service (IGS) centers to consolidate final completed IGS TEC maps. The advance of deep learning offers powerful tools to perform certain tasks in

Remote surface potential determination for nearby objects in space is an enabling technology for a range of space mission concepts, from improved rendezvous capabilities to touchless debris remediation with the electrostatic tractor concept. One concept is to use a nearby servicing spacecraft which fires electrons at the target. These electrons generate bremsstrahlung X‐rays, and the resultant X‐ray

The sudden exposure to energetic protons from solar energetic particle (SEP) events beyond the Earth's magnetosphere and en route to and from Mars can, in extreme cases, lead to acute radiation sickness, an impairing, mission‐endangering condition for astronauts. Timely warnings of their impending occurrence may significantly reduce radiation exposure by allowing astronauts sufficient time to move

Space weather poses a hazard to grounded electrical infrastructure such as high voltage (HV) transformers, through the induction of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Modeling GICs requires knowledge of the source magnetic field and the Earth's electrical conductivity structure, in order to calculate the geoelectric fields generated during magnetic storms, as well as knowledge of the topology

In this study, we report the persistent impacts of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake/tsunami on the ionosphere using the ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System and FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC total electron content. Multiple unusual ionospheric phenomena, such as ionospheric irregularities, nighttime medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs), and planar traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs)

Equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are plasma density irregularities found in the equatorial ionosphere after sunset and are closely related to the upward E×B drift before it reverses to the generally downward direction at nighttime, referred to as prereversal enhancement (PRE). Although the seasonal variation of PRE and EPB have been generally associated with F and E region dynamo, large variability

Accurate modeling of spacecraft charging is essential to mitigate well‐known and all‐too‐common deleterious and costly effects on spacecraft resulting from charging induced by interactions with the space plasma environment. This paper addresses how limited availability of electron emission and transport properties of spacecraft materials—in particular, secondary electron yields—and the wide ranges

Advanced warning of a stream interaction region (SIR) or corotating interaction region (CIR) impinging upon the magnetosphere of Earth is important for space weather forecasting, due to the ability of SIRs/CIRs to trigger geomagnetic storms and affect ionospheric composition and winds. However, a focused investigation of the likelihood that either an L5 monitor or Earth‐trailing “string‐of‐pearl” constellation

The Badhwar‐O'Neill (BON) model has been used for some time to describe the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment encountered in deep space by astronauts and sensitive electronics. The most recent version of the model, BON2014, was calibrated to available measurements to reduce model errors for particles and energies of significance to astronaut exposure. Although subsequent studies showed the model

The Space Environment In‐Situ Suite on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)‐R series of satellites includes a new instrument for measuring radiation belt electrons and protons, the Magnetospheric Particle Sensor–High Energy (MPS‐HI). The MPS‐HI electron channels cover the energy range 50 keV to 4 MeV. The conversion of raw MPS‐HI electron telescope counts to fluxes is based

Peer reviewing is the foundation of modern scholarship, with external specialists being asked to fairly check and evaluate submitted work. This difficult and often time‐consuming activity is performed voluntarily, with the understanding that one's own scholarship shall benefit down the line from a careful analysis of its assumption, results, accuracy, and yes, language, as we are now evaluating someone

STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement) phenomenon related structures have received much attention from space weather audiences in recent years. MacDonald et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaq0030), reports on a link between these ionospheric structures and the subauroral ion drift for the first time. This commentary summarizes previously overlooked observations of a distinct