Abstract The review is compiled on the basis of the results of operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring in Russia and adjoining territories functioning in the operational mode at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under the methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The

Abstract Uncertainty in predicted precipitation and air temperature are the main sources of the uncertainty in flood forecasting. In this study, the fuzzy set theory is used for assessment of impact that uncertainty in precipitation and air temperature data has on flood forecasting in the Dez basin in southwestern Iran. The precipitation and air temperature were predicted using the Weather Research

Abstract The paper presents the results of the verification of ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses data on surface air temperature obtained from drifting buoys, ground-based weather stations, and, for the first time, from measurements at the North Pole drifting stations. The North Pole station data were not assimilated in the reanalyses, which provides a rare opportunity for independent validation. The

Abstract A possibility of the early prediction of El Niño and La Niña phenomena taking into account their two types (Central Pacific and East Pacific ones) is studied. The prognostic model is based on the method of artificial neural networks. A set of global climate indices for the period of 1950–2019 is used as the input parameters of the model. The indices are calculated using monthly mean NCEP/NCAR

Abstract The paper proposes a new method for the integrated assessment of aquatic ecosystems based on dissolved oxygen concentration and water body temperature. The study proves the validity of assessing the state of aquatic ecosystems in terms of entropy change and the possibility of assessing the ecological state of water bodies based on the point values of the entropy index. The algorithm for the

Abstract Methodological approaches and results of estimation of peak flow characteristics of the Iya River taking into account the extreme rainfall flood in the town of 2019, that led to the catastrophic flood in Tulun (the Irkutsk region), are considered. A hydrodynamic model considering the impact of hydraulic structures is proposed to determine the peak flow and to calculate flooding levels. The

Abstract An analysis is carried out to estimate features of the atmospheric centers of action (ACA) in the Northern and Southern hemispheres using different long-term reanalysis data. The variability of ACAs and their relation to the hemispheric temperature and key climatic modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation is analyzed

Abstract The correlation between the isotopic composition of ice wedges and temperature of the cold period over the past 80 years in the north of the permafrost zone of Russia is verified using modern climate data. The meteorological observations from 1930 to 2017 and the values of δ18О in ice wedges for each region of the permafrost zone are analyzed to identify the most obvious and stable dependence

Abstract Based on the analysis of seasonal changes in prevailing wind, S.P. Khromov proposed in 1957 that the atmospheric circulation over the Barents and Kara seas has monsoon features. The ЕRА-Interim reanalysis is used to study seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation types over the Barents Sea during 1979–2018. The monsoon features of circulation (airflows from the land to the sea) in winter

Abstract The results of measurements of surface concentrations of nitrogen oxides NOx (NO and NO2) performed at the atmospheric monitoring station near Saint Petersburg (Petergof, 59.88° N, 29.83° E) in 2012–2018 are presented. The main patterns of the temporal variability of NOx concentrations typical for the urban atmosphere of a large megacity (seasonal, daily, and weekly variations) are revealed

Abstract The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase on the intensity and localization of anomalies in sea surface temperature and meteorological parameters associated with two types of El Niño is analyzed. The analysis is based on reanalysis and CMIP5 model data for modern and future climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). It is found that El Niño does not exhibit robust intensification during the

Abstract Based on the observations from more than 20 weather stations, the frequency of occurrence of the most dangerous weather events for Georgia (very heavy precipitation, hail, hurricane wind, blizzard, fog) is investigated. Based on the stochastic laws, the probabilities of occurrence of one of the events from the complex, the probability of the joint occurrence of both events of the complex,

Abstract The long-term variability of the Black Sea intermediate layer temperature is analyzed using an updated database for the period from 1951 to 2017. The existence of interdecadal temperature variations in the vicinity of the cold intermediate layer (CIL) with a period of ~50 years and the amplitude to 0.7°C is confirmed. It is shown that the CIL cooling/warming is accompanied by its upward/downward

Abstract The problem of preparing initial climatic data with varying frequency of occurrence for thermodynamic modeling of Arctic ice is considered. It is revealed that air temperature is the most significant meteorological parameter for such calculations. Based on the estimation of the sum of freezing degree-days for the cold season, a method for preparing initial data for the thermodynamic calculation

Abstract The real and hypothetical sources of radioactive contamination in the Arctic are considered. The urgency of assessing radiation conditions in the region is shown. The main reasons for reducing the reliability of results of aerial radiation reconnaissance in the Arctic are identified. The statistical distribution of pressure, temperature and moisture content of air over the Arctic is analyzed

Abstract The response of the Black Sea upper layer to the quasitropical cyclone on September 25–29, 2005 is studied using the coupled model consisting of the WRF atmosphere model, NEMO ocean model, and OASIS coupler. The circulation arising in the sea under the influence of the quasitropical cyclone is considered. It is demonstrated how sea surface temperature varied under the cyclone during its evolution

Abstract The development of a thunderstorm cell in the Beijing area according to the results of numerical modeling and field observations is considered. Based on the numerical simulation, it is shown that the most intense electrification process is the separation of charges as a result of collisions of hailstones and cloud crystals. Using the field observations, the relationship between the electrical

Abstract The analysis of systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field is performed. The dataset of the 5-day mean values of 500 hPa geopotential height during 1998–2018 is used for this purpose and is represented by the coefficients of its expansions in spherical functions. It is found that the hemispheric mean value of 500 hPa geopotential height increased by 1.0–2

Abstract The comparative analysis of field data on weather radar reflectivity and lightning activity for the convective season of 2016 (May 16–September 18) is performed. The accuracy of the thunderstorm detection algorithm implemented in the DMRL-C radars is evaluated. A new algorithm based on the sum of positive values of reflectivity is proposed. In terms of accuracy and reliability, the algorithm

Abstract The interannual and interdecadal distributions of the indices of large-scale atmospheric oscillations and the anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature in the Danube River basin in winter during 1950–2010 are considered. The number of winters with positive and negative precipitation and air temperature anomalies observed during various combinations of the positive and negative

Abstract The analysis of the ERA-Interim atmospheric circulation reanalysis data for the Caspian Sea area is carried out. The possibility of their use for specifying external forcing in a numerical model of thermo- and hydrodynamic processes in the Caspian Seais considered. The quality of these data is estimated based on a comparison with the climate atlases of the sea. The most significant differences

Abstract The possibility of using the Marine Hindcast and Forecast System (MHFS) developed at Zubov State Oceanographic Institute for short-term forecasting of hydrometeorological and ice characteristics of the Caspian Sea is demonstrated. The presented implementation of the system is based on the regional nonhydrostatic atmospheric model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model) and model of marine

Abstract The characteristics of the сumulonimbus cloud with waterspout that has passed over the Gulf of Finland are analyzed. The characteristics were obtained from polarimetric Doppler weather radar, radiometer, and lightning detector data. The waterspout was formed close to the cyclone center. The analysis of instability indices revealed high atmospheric instability. The sinking of the rotational

Abstract The results of analyzing trends in air temperature and humidity anomalies in the lower atmospheric layer of 0–2 km over the Russian Arctic in 1964–2016 are presented. The calculations are based on the CARDS aerological dataset complemented with current data. It is shown that the air temperature rise in the lower atmospheric layer (0–2 km) over the Russian Arctic is accompanied by an increase

Abstract The experimental results of evaluating levels of air pollution with persistent organic pollutants (POPs) listed in the Stockholm Convention at Amderma and Tiksi stations in 2015–2017 are presented. The list of POPs includes polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers. The ranges of the POP concentration are revealed and the statistical characteristics

Abstract The heat budget components that are involved in the formation of the tripole structure of the upper mixed layer (UML) temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic under the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed using ORA-S3 oceanic reanalysis data for the winter period in 1959–2011. It is shown that the negative UML temperature anomaly in the western part of the tropical

Abstract The long-term values of background characteristics of air pollution at the background monitoring station in the Prioksko-Terrasny Biosphere Reserve are presented. A comparison with similar observations at other monitoring stations in the European part of Russia, as well with sanitary and hygienic standards is given. Conditions for the achievement of the standards (abnormal weather conditions

Abstract The radiation conditions in Moscow and the Moscow region are assessed using observations at the Roshydromet radiation monitoring network. The paper presents the dynamics of the radiation background caused by technogenic radionuclides in the environment, starting from the period of nuclear tests in the atmosphere to the present. A comparative analysis is provided for the radiation characteristics

Abstract The changes in the hydrological regime of rivers in the Moscow region occurred under global warming. It is expressed in the redistribution of runoff within a year: an increase in minimum runoff and a decrease in flood runoff. The analysis of the series of the inflow to the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs revealed stationarity disturbances in the studied series for the period of 1978–1980

Abstract The review is based on the results of the operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring over the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational mode at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers, which is under the methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality

Abstract The patterns of dynamics are revealed for some hydrochemical parameters of water quality (the concentration of mineral nitrogen, phosphorus, natural organic matter, manganese) based on the Mosvodokanal monitoring for the period of 1988–2011 for of two reservoirs–sources of water supply in Moscow (Ucha and Klyaz’ma reservoirs). Based on the values of average monthly and average annual concentrations

Abstract The results of model calculations for the long-term balance of persistent and labile organic substances in the Mozhaisk Reservoir are analyzed. The model verification based on numerous hydrological and hydrochemical surveys of the reservoir demonstrated the adequacy of the model simulation of organic matter concentrations in the reservoir water. Long-term trends in the individual components

Abstract Data on anthropogenic emissions from industrial sources and motor vehicles to the atmosphere over the Moscow region over the past decade (2009–2018) are analyzed. The spatial distribution of emissions, its links to the distribution of urban areas and to the transport network location within the study region are considered. The estimates of trends in anthropogenic load of air pollutants as

Abstract Long-term Roshydromet monitoring data (2009–2018) on the pollution of the atmosphere, soil, and surface water are considered for the Moscow region (Moscow city within its new boundaries and the Moscow oblast). The air quality in the megacity (Moscow) and in background conditions (Prioksko-Terrasny Reserve) is compared.

Abstract The current (2015–2017, the period for which necessary datasets were available) changes in the annual flow of the Moskva River under the influence of anthropogenic and climatic factors are considered. They are compared with the period of annual normal flow calculation. The anthropogenic impact on runoff is also estimated in comparison with the middle of the 19th century and with 1960s–1980s

Abstract Under the rapidly changing watershed characteristics as a result of human activities, it is necessary not only to specify the boundaries of the flooded areas but also to monitor such areas on a regular basis. However, the modern regulatory documentation does not correspond to the complex hydrologically grounded approach to the flood zone monitoring. The paper provides generalized recommendations

Abstract The paper presents the results of the comparative analysis of the AMDAR measuring system aboard regular airliners and the measuring system of the Yak-42D “Roshydromet” new-generation research aircraft. It is shown that root-mean-square errors of air temperature, wind speed, and wind angle measurements based on the data of the research aircraft for the conditions of horizontal steady flight

Abstract An approach to the estimation of statistical characteristics of total rainfall for short time periods is considered. The probabilistic characteristics of rains are obtained which are intended for the solution to a number of applied problems related to the calculation of peak runoff and washout of pollutants from catchment areas. Based on the results of pluviograph data processing for the Moscow

Abstract A new methodology is proposed for computing the city-descriptive parameters for the TERRA_URB scheme in the COSMO model. It is based on the GIS analysis of OpenStreetMap data, Sentinel-2 satellite images, and global land cover data. A set of parameters is obtained for Moscow megacity on a grid with the spacing of 500 m. The dataset is promising for high-resolution numerical weather prediction

Abstract Based on long-term (1955–2018) actinometric observations at the Meteorological Observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University, the radiation regime of the Earth’s surface is analyzed. The assessment of factors determining the arrival and redistribution of solar and terrestrial radiation is given. A climatic generalization of radiation characteristics is presented: their climate normals,

Abstract The results of surface temperature measurements in the Moscow region by Aqua and Terra satellites are presented for the period of 2008–2015. High correlations between radiometer data and station data on air temperature and surface temperature from the Meteorological Observatory of Moscow State University are revealed. However, station data on surface temperature in summer are overestimated

Abstract For Moscow and the territory including some regions in the center of European Russia, changes in the following indices characterizing temperature extremes are analyzed: the seasonal number of days with temperature above the 90th percentile and below the 10th percentile, the seasonal duration of heat waves and cold waves, and the magnitude of the largest anomalies in a season (5th and 95th

Abstract Based on monitoring data (surface observation network and satellites) and on the results of climate simulations with the COSMO-CLM and ENVI-MET models, the dynamics of the urban heat island (UHI) and wet/dry island and their 3D structure for the Moscow agglomeration are investigated. It is found that the Moscow UHI is maintained by the anthropogenic heat influx to the urban atmosphere. To

Abstract The study presents the new system for operational short-range numerical weather prediction with the grid spacing of 1 km for the Moscow region that considers the features of urbanized surface and is based on the COSMO-Ru1M model configuration. This system is implemented in the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The results of the trial testing of the optimum model configuration for the Moscow region

AbstractThe analysis of interannual changes in climatic parameters for the Caspian Sea over the period of 1900–2015 revealed their links to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. For example, a dramatic Caspian Sea level decrease in the 1930s may be connected with the strengthening of eastern wind in the region caused by the weakening of the North Atlantic influence on the timescales of about eight years

AbstractAnthropogenic heat (AH) is an important part of urban surface energy balance. Although AH affects regional climates through changing land-atmosphere interactions, the climate forcing from AH are not usually calculated in state-of-the-art regional climate simulations. In this paper, the spatial pattern of AH in 20 automatic weather station sites in the Beijing municipal administrative area is

AbstractThe review is based on the results of operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring system in the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational mode at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers being under the methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality

AbstractBased on satellite data on sea surface temperature (1985–2018) and surface wind (1992–2017), the parameters of low-frequency variability are calculated and analyzed for the intensity of the Canary, Benguela, Californian, Peruvian, and Chilean upwellings. It is shown that all the analyzed large-scale wind-driven upwellings have intensified in the recent 30 years. The main contribution to this

AbstractThe paper studies seasonal and long-term variability of the number of positive and negative anomalies of total ozone (TO) for the whole globe, the Northern Hemisphere, Russia, and the latitude zone it belongs. Satellite data are used for the research. It is found that the long-term variability of TO is significantly higher than the seasonal one and is caused by the slowest tidal oscillation

AbstractThe major dynamic processes in the Arctic stratosphere in the winter of 2018/2019 and their impact on the troposphere, mesosphere, and ozone layer are analyzed using the NCEP reanalysis and MLS satellite data. Based on the results of simulations with the TRACAO trajectory model, the comparative analysis of stratospheric polar vortex evolution in winters of 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 is performed

AbstractThe results of the numerical simulation of intense convection that caused the tornado in the city of Blagoveshchensk on July 31, 2011 are presented. The WRF-ARW nonhydrostatic mesoscale model on the nested grids with the spacing to 500 m is used for simulations. It is found that the tornado was initiated by the meso-γ vortex associated with a quasilinear convective system at the height of 700–900

AbstractTides play an important role in the mesoscale sea level variability in the Arctic seas. A distinctive feature of tides in this region is the seasonal variability of harmonic constants, which is caused by changes in hydrometeorological conditions during a year. Based on the analysis of long-term hourly sea-level observations in the White, Chukchi, and Laptev seas, the seasonal variability of

AbstractSatellite data on methane concentration in the lower troposphere and the dynamical permafrost model are used to analyze methane emissions in the permafrost zone. The sources of methane generation in different biochemical conditions in the river valleys, thermokarst lakes, wetlands, and lowlands are studied. The statistical relationships between their intensity and air temperature, precipitation

AbstractThe analysis of satellite images revealed by 25% decrease of the Altai mountains’ glaciation area over last 50 years. In 2008–2017, deglaciation rate increased twice. This tendency is in good agreement with an observed increase in the Katun River flow by 9% in 2008–2017 as compared to 1940–1968 (under invariable total precipitation). The analysis of trends of main meteorological parameters

AbstractThe method of stratospheric aerosols (SA) is considered. This is one of the geoengineering methods, which can be used as a supplementary method to stabilize global temperature at the levels accepted by the Paris Agreement in 2015. It is shown that the application of the SA method could keep global temperature at the levels of +2 and +1.5°С above the preindustrial value, which is calculated

AbstractFor two hydrological models, the ECOMAG and SWAP, the hypothesis is checked that a model which has successfully passed the test based on observational data is more efficient for assessing future hydrological consequences of climate change than the models which did not pass the test. The efficiency is evaluated using two criteria: the robustness of a model and the uncertainty of simulation results

AbstractDue to the fact that the recent decades have become the warmest in the history of meteorological observations for the territory of Northern Eurasia, it is relevant to assess the long-term variability of the convective potential of the atmosphere in changing climate. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the characteristics of atmospheric instability and the frequency of occurrence of convective hazards

AbstractA statistical model for the formation of climate-related hazards is proposed. The formation is described by several meteorological variables or applied climatic indices characterizing a calendar year. Their values or data for their calculation are provided by climate monitoring systems. A climate-related hazard arises when these variables or applied climate indices together go beyond their

AbstractA fundamentally new integrated approach to the state activity on the adaptation to changing environmental conditions, namely, the territorial planning of land use is proposed by the example of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation being the most vulnerable region to climate change. Adaptation measures for natural ecosystems are scientifically grounded for the Arctic region: the prevention

AbstractThe study analyzes modern climate change based on the data of the climate monitoring performed by the Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology. A brief description of the surface climate monitoring database and its real-time updating is given. Changes in surface temperature over the Earth’s land with detailing over the territory of Russia and its regions, as well as changes in the precipitation