As the global climate warms, the fate of lacustrine fish is of huge concern, especially given their sensitivity as ectotherms to changes in water temperature. The Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus L.) is a salmonid with a Holarctic distribution, with peripheral populations persisting at temperate latitudes, where it is found only in sufficiently cold, deep lakes. Thus, warmer temperatures in these habitats

This article examines the choices that might be needed for India’s energy sector under alternative mitigation scenarios. The article draws on the CD-LINKS study—a collaborative EU project under which seven pathways based on different combinations of carbon budget (high and low) and policy implementation (early and late) were developed and examined. This study uses the MARKAL energy system model to

Farmers’ climate perceptions are responsible for shaping their adaptive responses and are thus essential to consider for the design of strategies to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. In this study, we collected social data in four communities in the central Ethiopian Highlands on farmers’ climate perceptions and adaptations using group discussions and PRA tools. We related these to climate

An important aspect of predicting future wildland fire risk is estimating fire weather—weather conducive to the ignition and propagation of fire—under realistic climate change scenarios. Because the majority of area burned occurs on a few days of extreme fire weather, this task should be able to resolve fire weather extremes. In this paper, we present a statistical downscaling procedure based on distribution

Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index

Drought, which negatively affects crop yields, is expected to intensify in the future and will continue to threaten food security. Understanding crop yield responses to drought is essential for seeking more effective strategic adaptations and for reducing the risk of yield failure. However, how to regionally quantify drought-induced yield loss rates remains unclear. We addressed this gap through studying

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy

This article examines the impact of farmers’ perceptions of temperature change on implementing environmentally friendly agriculture practices on rubber plantations. Based on the data collected from 611 smallholder rubber farmers in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture (XSBN) in the upper Mekong region, an endogenous switching probit model and an endogenous treatment effects model are applied to

The assessment of climate change and its impact relies on the ensemble of models available and/or sub-selected. However, an assessment of the validity of simulated climate change impacts is not straightforward because historical data is commonly used for bias-adjustment, to select ensemble members or to define a baseline against which impacts are compared—and, naturally, there are no observations to

Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense due to anthropogenic global warming and have serious and potentially life-threatening impacts on human health, particularly for people over 65 years old. While a range of studies examine heatwave exposures, few cover the whole globe and very few cover key areas in Africa, South America, and East Asia. By using global gridded climate reanalysis, population

Virtually all climate monitoring and forecasting efforts concentrate on hazards rather than on impacts, while the latter are a priority for planning emergency activities and for the evaluation of mitigation strategies. Effective disaster risk management strategies need to consider the prevailing “human terrain” to predict who is at risk and how communities will be affected. There has been little effort

For centuries, traditional high-altitude oases in Oman have depended on the cultivation of deciduous fruit trees. This study explores the effects of climate change on winter chill (estimated as Chilling Hours—CH and Chill Portions—CP), a prerequisite to overcoming dormancy and initiating flowering, in three Omani oases. The results are compared with findings from an earlier study which reported a decrease

This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in physical climate impact assessments. It draws on examples from related fields such as climate modelling and numerical weather prediction in discussing how to interpret the results of multi-model ensembles and the role of model evaluation. Using large-scale, multi-model simulations of hydrological extremes as an example, we demonstrate how large uncertainty

Statistical downscaling (SD) and bias adjustment (BA) methods are routinely used to produce regional to local climate change projections from coarse global model outputs. The suitability of these techniques depends on the particular application of interest and, especially, on the required spatial resolution. Whereas SD is appropriate for local (e.g., gauge) resolution, BA may be a good alternative

Comparing outputs of multiple climate and crop models is an option to assess the uncertainty in simulations in a changing climate. The use of multiple wheat models under five plausible future simulated climatic conditions is rarely found in literature. CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, CROPSIM-Wheat, and APSIM-Wheat models were calibrated with observed data form eleven sowing dates (15 October to 15 March)

Shifts away from the historical hydroclimate in populated regions can have dire consequences for water management. Regions like the state of California—where highly engineered, geographically interconnected, and inflexible water management systems are predicated on particular spatiotemporal patterns of water availability—are particularly vulnerable to hydroclimate shifts. However, much of the analysis

The effect of model calibration on the projection of climate change impact on hydrological indicators was assessed by employing variants of a pan-European hydrological model driven by forcing data from an ensemble of climate models. The hydrological model was calibrated using three approaches: calibration at the outlets of major river basins, regionalization through calibration of smaller scale catchments

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement (PA) submitted so far do not put the world on track to meet the targets of the Agreement and by 2020 countries should ratchet up ambition in the new round of NDCs. Brazil’s NDC to the PA received mixed reviews and has been rated as “medium” ambition. We use the Brazil Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) model to explore low-emission

It is well known that temperatures across the globe are rising, but climatic conditions are becoming more variable as well. Forecasts of species range shifts, however, often focus on average climatic changes while ignoring increasing climatic variability. In particular, many species distribution models use space-for-time substitution, which focuses exclusively on the effect of average climatic conditions

Climate change introduces an uncertain risk to power plant operations as ambient conditions potentially constrain generation through thermodynamic limitations. Previous studies aiming to quantify this risk have suggested a wide range of results, from minimal to disastrous capacity loss. In this analysis, we used a power plant modeling tool to study how a variety of power plant configurations respond

This study aimed to investigate the influence of hydrological model calibration/validation on discharge projections for three large river basins (the Rhine, Upper Mississippi and Upper Yellow). Three hydrological models (HMs), which have been firstly calibrated against the monthly discharge at the outlet of each basin (simple calibration), were re-calibrated against the daily discharge at the outlet

The Himalayan country like Nepal, due to its poor adaptive capacity and limited access to alternate means of livelihoods, is more vulnerable to climate change. It is found that climate change exacerbates the situation and presents a daunting challenge to predominantly rain-fed agricultural livelihoods. This study aims to analyze the extent and sources of households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate

Drought is a highly destructive natural hazard with wide-ranging impacts on water security, agriculture, energy, and human health. Unlike most natural hazards, droughts can develop anywhere, evolve rapidly within a month or slowly over a season, and span months to decades without a clear beginning or end. Few studies investigate the direct link between drought and drought-related impacts on health

Understanding the projected changes in the mean and high flows remains a significant challenge due to uncertainty arising from global climate models (GCMs) and hydrological models. Moreover, the calibration approaches used for hydrological models can influence the climate change impact assessment. We use the combination of three hydrological models, four global climate models, and two RCPs (2.6 and

Changes in postharvest storage conditions due to climate change can directly affect energy usage and food supply and quality. However, no study has assessed climate change impacts on postharvest storage conditions in different climate regions over the contiguous United States (CONUS), a major agricultural producer around the world. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on

A large survey of corn farmers in twelve US midwestern states (n = 6849) was used to determine the role of multiple dimensions of uncertainty on prior experience with climate change, attitudes towards climate adaptation, and use of climate outlooks in agricultural decision-making. Epistemic uncertainty refers to a perception about the level of information about a phenomenon. Aleatoric uncertainty is

Climate change could increase the frequency and duration of droughts that affect Mexico. This is particularly worrisome because many agricultural communities in the country are poor and with limited capacities for adaptation. This study estimated the impact of droughts on rural households’ wellbeing in Mexico, specifically on per capita earnings, poverty, and children’s school attendance. To do this

The article Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the

The original article has been corrected. Unfortunately the name of the second author was misspelled. This has been corrected.

The global food system is increasingly interconnected and under pressure to support growing demand. At the same time, crop production is facing new and uncertain impacts from climate change. To date, understanding how downstream supply chain actors, such as commodity traders, are exposed to climate change risks has been difficult due to a lack of high-resolution climate and trade data. However, the

Scientific climate knowledge is often argued to be a key ingredient in climate adaptation. Focusing on individual sectors and institutions, researchers have given insights as to how climate knowledge is reframed according to institutional cultures and priorities. This study extends such scholarship by comparing how four sectors—greenspace management, building technology, spatial planning, and health—perceive

Climate change is affecting virtually all environments in the world today. The Central Asian mountains, where livestock herding is the main source of livelihood, are among the environments predicted to be most affected. In this paper, we use meteorological records and herder perceptions to improve the understanding of climate change and examine how different climate change scenarios will affect herder

Many early career researchers (ECRs) have the capacity and drive to contribute to climate adaptation and mitigation solutions. Strategic investments in training and support, especially in broad-based efforts that span traditional disciplinary boundaries, can help ECRs meet this potential and become emerging leaders equipped to address pressing climate-related challenges throughout their careers. In

In this paper, a systematic literature review was conducted to synthesize understanding on farmers’ perception on climate change. Farmers’ perception of climate change is conceptualized as comprising of three dimensions—first, as farmers’ “awareness”; second, “conceptual understanding”; and third, the “experience” of climate change. The review included 162 papers published during the period January

Over the past decades, large variations of precipitation were observed in Africa, which often led to dramatic consequences for local society and economy. To avoid such disasters in the future, it is crucial to better anticipate the expected changes, especially in the current context of climate change and population growth. To this date, however, projections of precipitation over Africa are still associated

Numerous studies to date have interrogated United States (US) think tanks—and their networks—involved in climate change countermovement (CCM). Comparatively in Europe (EU), research has been lacking. This investigation therefore attends to that gap. We conducted a frame analysis on eight most prominent contrarian think tanks in six countries and four languages in Europe over 24 years (1994–2018). We

The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we

In order to facilitate the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation practices by smallholders, it is essential to understand their perspectives on climate change. However, few empirical studies have considered how smallholders perceive climate change in Central Vietnam. This research investigates the Vietnamese smallholders’ views on the causes and indicators of climate change and factors

Weather and climate hazards cause too many fatalities each year. These weather and climate hazards are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to global warming. Here, we use a disaster database to investigate continentally aggregated fatality data for trends. We also examine whether modes of climate variability affect the propensity of fatalities. Furthermore, we quantify fatality risk

We explore future changes of temperature, precipitation, and drought characteristics in the Indochina Region (ICR) based on the optimal ensemble subset of global climate models (GCMs) of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The optimal ensemble subset is selected from 34 GCMs using an ensemble selection method by focusing on precipitation over ICR. Bias correction procedures for

As climate change is unlikely to follow a linear path, climate policies should anticipate varied outcomes and be flexibly responsive. The case for such “robust policy” is compelling. However, advocates of robust approaches to policymaking often understate the challenge, as the variability of climate is just one of at least three interactive arenas of uncertainty that require attention. Emerging technologies

Rebates incentivize clean vehicle adoption but may raise equity concerns because upfront capital is required for vehicle acquisition, limiting access for low-income households. Since poorer communities typically experience worse air quality than their wealthier counterparts, rebates also may not incentivize clean vehicle acquisitions in more polluted areas where air quality benefits would be greater

Weather and climate are important considerations for tourists in selecting their destinations, and climate change may impact these decisions, with implications for economic revenue in tourism-dependent locations. In the Coachella Valley, a desert region in Southern California, the warm and dry climate during winter months attracts seasonal visitors from Canada and northern US states (“snowbirds”).

Since global warming between 2 and 4.9 °C by 2100 is unlikely to be avoided, humans will have to live with and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Migration has long been touted as a strategy for adapting to climate change, but there is limited understanding of which aspects of climate change will have greatest influence on peoples’ decision to move somewhere they consider safer or stay somewhere

A question often asked by many, and across different strands of society, is what would happen to global warming levels if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) are held at their current concentrations. Existing research, e.g. as summarised by Meehl et al. (2007), estimates potentially considerable additional warming resulting from stable present-day atmospheric GHG concentrations. We use the Equilibrium

Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecast development and science communication best practice is a critical step towards the integration of climate information into decision-making practices for enhanced community resilience to climate variability. Recent efforts in the physical sciences have focused on the development of seasonal climate forecasts, with increased emphasis on tailoring this

Land use and water management have considerable impacts on regional climates. This paper proposes that in humid regions with low wind patterns the construction of hydropower storage reservoirs contributes to the increases in the probability of precipitation in the regional climate. This observation has been tested with a methodology that calculates the cumulative influence of reservoir construction

‘Cultured’ meat has attracted a considerable amount of investor and media interest as an early-stage technology. Despite uncertainties about its future impact, news media may be contributing to promissory discourses, by stressing the potential benefits from cultured meat to the environment, health, animal welfare, and feeding a growing population. The results from a content analysis of 255 articles

Adaptation strategies are essential to manage water demand and ensure optimal use of available water resources under climate change. Identification and prioritization of adaptation options would greatly support decision-making in drought-prone Northwest Bangladesh. This study identified climate adaptation options by literature review and stakeholder consultation, then used multi-criteria analysis to

Carbon taxes evoke a variety of public responses, often with negative implications for policy support, implementation, and stringency. Here we use topic modeling to analyze associations of Spanish citizens with a policy proposal to introduce a carbon tax. This involves asking two key questions, to elicit (1) citizens’ associations with a carbon tax and (2) their judgment of the fairness of such a policy

Climate change is threatening food security in many tropical countries, where a large proportion of food is produced by vulnerable smallholder farmers. Interventions are available to offset many of the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, and they can be tailored to local conditions often through relative modest investments. However, little quantitative information is available to guide

Future climate change will likely impact the multiple freshwater ecosystem services (fES) provided by catchments through their landscapes and river systems. However, there is high spatio-temporal uncertainty on those impacts linked to climate change uncertainty and the natural and anthropogenic interdependencies of water management systems. This study identifies current and future spatial patterns

As breeding areas are becoming warmer and wetter, climatic changes are likely to affect the distributions of millions of waterfowl in Eastern Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the potential effects of climate change on the breeding distribution and abundance of 12 common waterfowl species, by using a climate envelope modeling approach. Our response variables were species counts on 317

The role of advanced end-use technologies has been investigated in multiple series of scenarios using an integrated assessment model BET-GLUE, which comprises an energy-economic module (BET) and a bioenergy-land-use module (GLUE). The scenarios consider different technology assumptions on the availability of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and end-use efficiencies featuring electrification

Four bias correction methods, i.e., gamma cumulative distribution function (GamCDF), quantile–quantile adjustment (QQadj), equidistant cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) matching (EDCDF), and transform CDF (CDF-t), to read are applied to five daily precipitation datasets over China produced by LMDZ4-regional that was nested into five global climate models (GCMs), BCC-CSM1-1m, CNRM-CM5

Ethane is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon in the Earth’s atmosphere and an important precursor of tropospheric ozone through various chemical pathways. Ethane is also an indirect greenhouse gas (global warming potential), influencing the atmospheric lifetime of methane through the consumption of the hydroxyl radical (OH). Understanding the development of trends and identifying trend reversals

Affluence and vulnerability are often seen as opposite sides of a coin—with affluence generally understood as reducing forms of vulnerability through increased resilience and adaptive capacity. However, in the context of climate change and an increase in associated hazards and disasters, we suggest the need to re-examine this dynamic relationship—a complex association we define here as the Affluence–Vulnerability

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300