Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both

The author argues that in the present historical moment, the only climate science that is truly usable is that which is oriented towards adaptation, because current policies and politics are so far from what would be needed to avert dangerous climate change that scientific uncertainty is not a limiting factor on mitigation. The author considers what implications this might have for climate science

There is increasing concern among financial regulators that changes in the distribution and frequency of extreme weather events induced by climate change could pose a threat to global financial stability. We assess this risk, for the case of floods, by developing a simple model of the propagation of climate-induced shocks through financial networks. We show that the magnitude of global risks is determined

Climate change is a serious concern for the agricultural sector given that this sector is highly dependent on climate conditions. Moreover, farmersʼ adaptation process under changing climate can be explained by the psychological factors and the incorporation of socio-environmental background. Therefore, the current study aimed at socio-cognitive perceptions and extended protection motivation theory

Social adaptations to natural hazards in China were influenced by various social and economic factors including traditional cultures such as Feng Shui, also known as Chinese geomancy. This study examines not only the progressive processes and spatial distribution of the 1849 severe flood in Nanjing City but also subsequent countermeasures based on historical documents, maps, and digital elevation model

Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing

Shifts in species ranges and viability introduced by climate change are creating difficult challenges for scientists and citizens. In many cases, the seriousness of threats to endangered species is forcing policy makers and resource managers to consider novel species protection strategies, either to complement or replace existing conservation approaches. This paper seeks to deepen understanding of

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced rapid warming since the 1980s. Previous studies, mainly based on theoretical models and remote sensing interpretation at regional scales, have revealed cropland expansion in high-altitude areas on the TP and identified the agro-pastoral transition zone as the major cropland expansion area. However, few studies have investigated whether farmers and herders reclaim

Anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and duration of extreme climate events, including extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme cold events (ECE). How the frequency and duration of both EHE and ECE have changed over time within both terrestrial and marine environments globally has not been fully explored. Here, we use detrended daily estimates of minimum and maximum temperature from

The best available information on climate change projections is used here in conjunction with the observation-based conceptual site modeling framework that draws on the source-pathway-receptor-consequences approach, to conduct an impact assessment of future climatic hazards on the Panchang Bedena landfill in Selangor, Malaysia. Climate change impact assessment of landfills is currently limited by the

Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach

The continental shelf in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean is among the six richest marine regions for biodiversity in the Southern Hemisphere, and its subtropical region is one of the fastest-warming hotspots. Thus, climate change could profoundly affect future species distributions. We investigated future climate-induced changes in fish larvae and harvested fish taxa in the subtropical southwestern

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03090-4

This paper proposes an assessment of long-term climate strategies for oil- and gas-producing countries—in particular, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states—as regards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase of surface air temperature to 2°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The study evaluates the possible role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies under an international

The mitigation required to achieve the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement entails drastic emissions reductions. The mentioned goal is of special interest for regions like the Mediterranean where the average temperature is rising above the world average with the consequential risk for the future viability of its different ecosystems. The objective of this work is to analyze if the commitments of the

Downscaling is an effective technique to bridge the gap between climate model outputs and data requirements of most crop and hydrologic models for assessing local and site-specific climate change impacts, especially on future food security. However, downscaling of temporal sequences, extremes in daily precipitation, and handling of nonstationary precipitation in future conditions are considered common

Home insurance for extreme weather events is a significant security mechanism not only for individual households but for global finance. As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, home insurance has been identified by governments as a critical tool for climate adaptation and disaster resilience. However, the growing research literature on the interactions between household insurance

After a disaster, it is common to equate repopulation and rebuilding with recovery. Numerous studies link post-disaster relocation to adverse social, economic, and health outcomes. However, there is a need to reconsider these relationships in light of accelerating climate change and associated social and policy shifts in the USA, including the rising cost of flood insurance, the challenge of obtaining

This study assessed the impacts of climate change on diversion water requirements for irrigation system planning and development in the Philippines. Representative sites with high potential for irrigation development were selected from each of the four climatic types in the country. Cropping calendars were developed based on evapotranspiration and rainfall patterns. The CROPWAT program was used to

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation

Annual maximum lake surface temperature influences ecosystem structure and function and, in particular, the rates of metabolic activities, species survival and biogeography. Here, we evaluated 50 years of observational data, from 1966 to 2015, for ten European lakes to quantify changes in the annual maximum surface temperature and the duration above a potentially critical temperature of 20 °C. Our

Standards of proof for attributing real world events/damage to global warming should be the same as in clinical or environmental lawsuits, argue Lloyd et al. The central question that we raise is effective communication. How can climate scientists best and effectively communicate their findings to crucial non-expert audiences, including public policy makers and civil society? To address this question

We examine the relationship between socio-economic disadvantage and exposure to environmental hazard with data from the catastrophic 2019–2020 Australian wildfires (Black Summer) that burnt at least 19 million hectares, thousands of buildings and was responsible for the deaths of 34 people and more than one billion animals. Combining data from the National Indicative Aggregated Fire Extent (NIAFE)

With high temporal resolution and accurate age control, tree-ring width is a good proxy for recording past climate variations from interannual to centennial time scales. The complex network method, widely used in analyses of modern meteorological observations, is an effective method to demonstrate synchronizations within climate events, thus revealing potential climate teleconnections. In this study

Carbon leakage is the effect of emissions transferring to certain countries due to others having a stricter climate policy. This phenomenon is shown to have undercut the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol. Considering the increasingly globalised nature of the world economy, carbon leakage may have an even greater potential under the Paris Agreement some 15 years later. Although a more global approach

The original article has been corrected. During proof correction of the article, mistakes in the author affiliations of Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Robert Wiśniewski, Anthony E. Fallick, Stefano Natali, and Marco Luppichini were introduced. Please find the correct affiliations here as well.

This paper evaluates the influence that climate change could exert on electricity demand patterns in Spain conditioned on the level of warming, with special attention to the seasonal occurrence of extreme demand days. For this purpose, assuming the currently observed electricity demand–temperature relationship holds in the future, we have generated daily time series of pseudo-electricity demand for

Scarcity of high-resolution proxy records has hindered our understanding of long-term climate variations and their mechanism in climate-sensitive regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, we present a winter minimum temperature (Tmin) reconstruction for the past 351 years (1648–1998) based on a composite tree ring width chronology from three upper treeline sites in the Gongga Mountains

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03078-0

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03067-3

Climate warming is inducing dramatic changes in species distribution. While many studies report the poleward range expansion of some species, some others report the range retraction and extinction risk of other species. Here we explore how climate warming affects the southern edge in North Africa of the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, which is a model insect currently expanding northwards

The start of the growing season for alpine plants is primarily determined by the date of snowmelt. We analysed time series of snow depth at 23 manually operated and 15 automatic (IMIS) stations between 1055 and 2555 m asl in the Swiss Central Alps. Between 1958 and 2019, snowmelt dates occurred 2.8 ± 1.3 days earlier in the year per decade, with a strong shift towards earlier snowmelt dates during

The extreme temperature events of the mid-eighteenth century can help understand the background climate conditions of the pre-industrial revolution period. However, studies are lacking mainly due to the scarceness of instrumental observations. Based on the observations made by the French Missionary Amiot in Beijing, a daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset during 1757–1762 was established using

Extreme wildfire events in recent years are shaking our established knowledge of how fire regimes respond to climate variables and how societies need to react to fire impacts. Albeit fires are stochastic and extreme in nature, the speed, intensity, and extension of new extreme fires that have occurred during the last years are unprecedented. Here, we identify common features of these emerging novel

Under the possible impact of climate warming, recent changes in dry and wet spells have contributed significantly to climate-related hazards around the world. In this work, spatial and temporal variations in dry and wet spells over Canada are investigated using daily precipitation data from 1979 to 2018. The time-varying relationships between precipitation spells and large-scale climate anomalies are

The effect of climate change on agriculture in the UK is here assessed using a comprehensive series of policy-relevant agro-climate indicators characterising changes to climate resources and hazards affecting productivity and operations. This paper presents projections of these indicators across the UK with gridded observed data and UKCP18 climate projections representing a range of greenhouse gas

Global warming is expected to have profound socio-economic and environmental consequences, and one of the key concerns is extreme precipitation. The classic theory indicates that the variation of extreme precipitation will follow the thermodynamically based Clausius-Clapeyron relation (increasing at a rate of approximately 7%/°C). However, the interaction and the seasonal variation of the relationship

Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called

The Aksu area is located in western Xinjiang, China, where an oasis is the main space for human production and life in this region. The stability of the oasis is crucial for societal and economic development and can be severely impacted by continued drought. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a widely applied index for dryness, has been reconstructed in many areas by tree rings. Here we develop

The article offers an overview of the time frames used in instrumental series and how to transform them into modern units. In the early instrumental period, time was measured with sundials or mechanical clocks regulated every day with the culmination at noon, making reference to the apparent solar time (AST) and the local meridian. Every day had a slightly different duration, start, and end for the

Managing water is a top social and economic responsibility and is expected to become even more critical as climate change, in addition to other human activities, alters water availability and quality. Robust indicators reflecting the effects of climate change on the US and global water cycles are needed in order to appropriately manage water resources. Here, we describe a suite of seventeen water cycle

The climate warming that has occurred over the past decades may benefit plant growth and development because it reduces the severity of frost events. However, these rising temperatures may also lead to diminished frost hardiness in plants due to their insufficient hardening. Despite climate warming exerting such dual effects on frost damage, how this might change the frost damage of woody plants remains

Climate change is a major challenge for the agricultural sector worldwide. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change owing to their high dependence on agriculture for livelihood sustenance. Building smallholder farmers’ livelihood resilience to the adverse effects of environmental change is critical to addressing their vulnerabilities. This paper comparatively

This paper addresses this issue of distinguishing the impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow using data from the Zarrinehrood River basin in Iran. The research was carried out in three main steps. First, considering the mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as the main climatic parameters, the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow were

Human behavior is responsible for global climate change. The impact of climate change is worse in poor countries like Ethiopia whose agriculture heavily relies on rainfall. The aim of this research was to assess farmers’ perceptions and their collective and individual response mechanisms to the impacts of climate variability and extremes.A sequential mixed research design was applied to conduct the

Proxy-based reconstructions are essential for investigating precipitation change in Asia on multidecadal to centennial timescales. Thus far, a total of four gridded precipitation/drought datasets for the past half millennium have been developed, including reconstructed Asian summer precipitation (RAP), May–September precipitation in China (IGGPRE), warm season precipitation for Asia (WSP), and Monsoon

Our view of responsibility for climate change has expanded to include the actions of firms, particularly fossil fuel producers. Yet analysis of animal agriculture’s role in climate change—estimated as 14.5% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions—has mainly focused on the sector as a whole. Here we examine the world’s 35 largest meat and dairy companies for their commitments to mitigating climate

Bangladesh’s unique climate vulnerability is well-investigated but the mental health impacts of climate change remain relatively unexplored. Three databases were searched for English primary qualitative studies published between 2000 and 2020. Out of 1202 publications, 40 met the inclusion criteria. This systematic review applies a systems approach to further understand Bangladesh’s ‘climate-wellbeing’

Established amidst the bloodshed of the Civil War, land-grant universities, together with the associated agricultural experiment stations and cooperative extension services, have played a crucial role in democratizing scientific knowledge and addressing intertwined educational, environmental, economic, and democratic challenges within the USA. Indeed, they have arguably pioneered the idea of “usable

Scenario planning (SP) has been increasingly utilized by water managers and planners in the 21st century as climate and other uncertainties have challenged traditional planning approaches. This paper discusses the potential for scenario planning processes in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern United States to build collective understanding of compound and cascading risks, and to identify

Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this

Climate change is driving a rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Such events are characterised as thresholds beyond which cereal yields significantly change. We apply a threshold model to district-level data collected in India over 1966–2011 and objectively identify thresholds, measured by the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, before estimating their yield

This study explores how public attitudes across three countries influence support towards terrestrial enhanced weathering, whereby silicate minerals are applied to agricultural land to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. An online survey was administered in Australia (N = 1000), the UK (N = 1000), and the USA (N = 1026) where there are ongoing field trials of this technique. Findings are similar

Characterizing the future risks of climate change is a key goal of climate impacts analysis. Temperature binning provides a framework for analyzing sector-specific impacts by degree of warming as an alternative or complement to traditional scenario-based approaches in order to improve communication of results, comparability between studies, and flexibility to facilitate scenario analysis. In this study

Changes to water resources are critical to all sectors of the economy. Climate change will affect the timing and quantity of water available in the environment as well as have an adverse effect on the quality of that water. Floods, droughts, and changing patterns of water scarcity—when water is not available in sufficient enough quantities or of a suitable quality at the right time to fulfill demand—are

The location of the Meiyu belt has an important influence on the summer precipitation pattern in East Asia. In this study, historical diary-recorded data and modern instrument-measured data were used to reconstruct the Meiyu sequence at its southern margin from 1861 to 2017. Combining with the variation of Meiyu intensity in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and the Huai River Valley

The rapid warming trend during the last deglaciation triggered significant global climate instabilities due to a complex non-linear response of the climate system to the gradual increase in insolation over the northern hemisphere. Although climate impacts can be detected globally, major regional imprints such as seasonal evolution and changes of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) during the last

Globally, investment in climate change mitigation has lagged far behind the optimal level as estimated by a large body of science. This lag may be caused, in part, by the psychological distance between decision-makers today and those who will likely experience the worst impacts of climate change in the future. This psychological distance reduces the salience of those impacts in today’s decisions. In

Extreme meteorological events have had devastating consequences all over the world throughout the ages. In this study, we look into the floods at the mouth of the Douro River (Porto, Portugal) in the eighteenth century to expand the data series of floods in Northern Portugal. Information was gathered mostly from documentary narrative sources, either individual or institutional (administrative and ecclesiastic)

Based on historical records and scores of the grain harvest in the Qing Dynasty, we reconstruct the spatial–temporal distribution and disaster severities of drought and flood disasters in eastern China in 1751, and we summarize the social countermeasures to the disasters at that time. In the summer of 1751, the regions south of the Yangtze River in China experienced droughts, while northern China suffered