Natural processes and human activities produce vast amounts of dead vegetation which return CO2 to the atmosphere through decay and combustion. If such vegetation could be converted into biocoal and sequestered on the ocean floor, it could reduce the accumulation of atmospheric CO2 without involving sequestration in the form of CO2. Given that raw vegetation is unsuitable for large-scale energy applications

In a recent very influential court case, Juliana v. United States, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth used the “storyline” approach to extreme event attribution to argue that greenhouse warming had affected and will affect extreme events in their regions to such an extent that the plaintiffs already had been or will be harmed. The storyline approach to attribution is deterministic rather than probabilistic

The UK, like other countries, has seen a proliferation of declarations of local climate emergencies. While these declarations have been interpreted as a demonstration of ambition, little is known about how and why they actually came about when they did and the implications this will have for what happens next. Focusing on London, UK, we present evidence collected via semi-structured interviews with

Cost of capital is an important driver of investment decisions, including the large investments needed to execute the low-carbon energy transition. Most models, however, abstract from country or technology differences in cost of capital and use uniform assumptions. These might lead to biased results regarding the transition of certain countries towards renewables in the power mix and potentially to

The idea of the carbon budget is a powerful conceptual tool to define and quantify the climate challenge. Whilst scientists present the carbon budget as the geophysical foundation for global net-zero targets, the financial metaphor of a budget implies figuratively the existence of a ‘budget manager’ who oversees the budget balance. Using this fictive character of budget manager as a heuristic device

The expectation of a seasonally ice-free Arctic expected by mid-century has sparked economic and geopolitical interest in potential Arctic opportunities and risks. But substantial sea ice variability across timescales suggests an uncertain future for forecasts of marine accessibility, especially over operational (< 2 years) and infrastructural (> 5 years) time spans that significantly influence decision-makers

The management of rangelands, including climate change adaptation strategies, is primarily responsible for stimulating livestock productivity, which consequently improves food security. This paper investigates the impact of climate change adaptations on food security among pastoralists in semi-arid parts of Kenya, who have not received due attention to date. Using an endogenous switching regression

Heat stress caused by climate change and heat-related labor productivity losses have become global concerns. Estimating the economic impacts of heat stress is of great significance for employers, as well as sectoral and national policy makers who are searching for solutions to reduce productivity losses. As the value of economic impacts are sensitive to the research methodologies, we conducted a systematic

Past studies have shown that the physiological effect of CO2 may be important for future climate change, yet many regional climate models and hydrological models used in impact studies do not simulate it. Here, the role the physiological effect of CO2 on the changes in the continental hydrological cycle over Europe in summer – when severe drying is projected – is assessed using a large ensemble of

While the individual effects of climate warming, nitrogen (N) deposition, and native plant diversity on plant invasion success are well studied, little is known about how they interact to influence this success. Here, we select invasive Solidago canadensis and four native plant species (Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crusgalli, Pennisetum alopecuroides, and Polygonum lapathifolium) to assemble

Greenhouse gas (GHG) and pollutant emissions are closely related to the economic structure. Most of the existing studies focused on single type of emissions and cannot provide guidance for co-controlling multiple emissions. Here, we provide an improved elasticity method based on input-output model that relates both supply and demand side at high resolution, evaluated for GHG emissions, local air pollution

A zero-carbon society requires dramatic change everywhere including in buildings, a large and politically sensitive sector. Technical possibilities exist but implementation is slow. Policies include many hard-to-evaluate regulations and may suffer from rebound mechanisms. We use dynamic econometric analysis of European macro data for the period 1990–2018 to systematically examine the importance of

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03166-1

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03155-4

The Ricardian literature has only a handful of contributions addressing the presence of spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects of climate change on agriculture. Although the majority of these studies offer models with group-specific slope parameters to account for spatial heterogeneity, large discrepancies on which grouping should be preferred still exist. This paper evaluates the extent to

Previous observational analyses have shown a declining rainfall trend over Israel, mostly statistically insignificant. The current study, for the period 1975–2020, undermines these findings, and the alarming future projections, and elaborates other ingredients of the rain regime. No trend is found for the annual rainfall, reflecting a balance between a negative trend in the number of rainy days and

Knowledge production is a co-evolutionary process where scientific topics and concepts are debated, discussed and assessed between scientists. We assess, we analyze, we “interpret” the world, and, at the same time, we communicate with one another, and we value certain knowledge more than other knowledge, based on some measure of prestige, conformism or past events. Here we analyze the evolution of

The assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on climate projections without considering social changes. We project heat risks for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind of differences there are in heat vulnerability projections with different scenarios and scales, and (2) how the use of socio-economic scenarios influences heat risk assessments. We project a vulnerability

Research has identified familism, a cultural value reflecting the centrality and prioritization of the family, as a key psychosocial determinant of health risk-mitigation behavior among Latinos, a large and growing segment of the US public. In a national probability survey in which Latinos were oversampled, we explored whether familism predicts climate beliefs and policy preferences. Whereas political

Future changes in the mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature over Europe are investigated according to CMIP6 future climate projections. All the temperature variables are projected to increase across Europe particularly in northern and southernmost latitudes, where according to SSP5-8.5 the warming can reach 2–3 (5–6) °C at the middle (end) of the current century. The warming is particularly

Societies adapt to climate variations and develop unique cultures that lead to distinctive economic behaviour across different regions. To estimate the climate-economic link and test the hypothetical role of culture, this paper uses a nationwide survey at the household level in China, together with historical temperature data at the prefectural city level for empirical analysis. The results show the

Climate change is frequently predicted to result in dramatic increases in international migration, yet current research has largely failed to identify such movements in practice. This paper sheds light on this apparent paradox. Drawing on Hirschman’s treatise on Exit, Voice and Loyalty, we provide empirical evidence that voicing about climatic change, as captured through media reports, is associated

An extreme drought occurred from 1876 to 1878 in most regions of northern China, leading to a series of social impacts, including harvest failures, price inflation, and population migration. Most regions of the Northern Hemisphere concurrently experienced extreme drought. Here, we use reconstructed high-resolution hydroclimatic (Palmer Drought Severity Index/precipitation) datasets and investigate

Climate mitigation and climate adaptation are crucial tasks for urban areas and can involve synergies as well as trade-offs. However, few studies have examined how mitigation and adaptation efforts relate to each other in a large number of differently sized cities, and therefore we know little about whether forerunners in mitigation are also leading in adaptation or if cities tend to focus on just

Mozambique has historically been prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location, but over the past 20 years the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones has increased, negatively affecting the entire economy, particularly agriculture. These impacts are expected to worsen, as climatic conditions become hotter and drier. This study estimates the impacts of climate change

The online version of the original article can be found at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03156-3

Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the

Drought is a devastating natural hazard that significantly affects human health and social and economic activities. This study aims to explore the short-term association between drought and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases (RDs) in four northwest cities, China. In this study, we obtained daily outpatient visits for RDs, meteorological factors, and air pollutant data in four cities (Lanzhou

How can individuals’ responses to the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic be used to inform constructive responses for climate action? We present an exploratory, mixed-methods investigation (N = 1784 US adults) into similarities and differences in individuals’ reactions to COVID-19 and climate change in June 2020. Participants identified many similarities between the issues, indicating that

We contribute to the growing literature on how political support for domestic policies that contribute to global collective goods is impacted by other countries’ policy actions. To do so, we focus on carbon taxation, one of the most important yet contested policy instruments for mitigating global warming, in the world’s third largest economy, Japan. Using a combination of two experiments embedded in

High impact weather events such as extreme temperatures or rainfall can cause significant disruption across the UK affecting sectors such as health, transport, agriculture and energy. In this study we draw on the latest set of UK climate projections, UKCP, to examine metrics relating to high-impact weather over the UK and how these change with different levels of future global warming from 1.5 °C to

Environmental health indicators are helpful for tracking and communicating complex health trends, informing science and policy decisions, and evaluating public health actions. When provided on a national scale, they can help inform the general public, policymakers, and public health professionals about important trends in exposures and how well public health systems are preventing those exposures from

The impacts on global water resources may be more intense due to climate change, making access to water more difficult and, consequently, maintaining life. In the Amazon, the effect may be even worse, as it is one of the region’s most vulnerable to these changes. Thus, the objective is to analyze future variations in the volumes and duration curves of the flow of the Amazon River to verify the hydrological

In recent years, global climate change has become an increasingly serious problem. Developing countries have assumed excessive responsibilities for carbon emissions under the principle of producer responsibility. A system that considers material flows to establish the responsibility for carbon emissions more accurately and fairly was proposed. In this study, the embodied carbon emissions (ECEs) of

Engaging politically polarized publics surrounding climate science is a vital element in the effort to enact climate mitigation policy. Science communication experts have identified several models of public engagement with science, including the deficit, dialogue, participation, and lay expertise model. Existing research suggests that the deficit model in particular is a largely ineffective model of

Over the twenty-first century, the combined effects of increased fire activity and climate change are expected to alter forest composition and structure in many ecosystems by changing postfire successional trajectories and recovery. Southwestern US mountain ecosystems contain a variety of vegetation communities organized along an elevation gradient that will respond uniquely to changes in climate and

Since the 1950s, the East Asian diurnal temperature range (DTR), defined as the difference between the daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin), has gradually decreased. Precipitation changes have often been cited as a primary cause of the change. However, the East Asian DTR change before 1950 and its relationship with precipitation remain unclear. Here, we used a newly developed China

Climate change–driven health impacts are serious, widespread, and costly. Importantly, such damages are largely absent from policy debates around the costs of delay and inaction on this crisis. While climate change is a global problem, its impacts are localized and personal, and there is growing demand for specific information on how climate change affects human health in different places. Existing

This study identifies historical extreme events and analyzes their impacts on social vulnerability, stability, and resilience in ancient China. We reconstructed extreme event sequences, simulated social resilience response using our proposed Cascade Catastrophe-Resilience Dynamic Model, and discussed interaction of social vulnerability and stability. We found the following conclusions. First, historical

The long-term variations in meteorological drought and its large-scale climate patterns in each season in Central Asia from 1901 to 2015 remain unclear. Here, this issue is addressed using meteorology measurements and reanalysis data through correlation and composite analyses. The drought intensity index (DII) and extent index (DEI) do not exhibit significant linear trends from 1901 to 2015 but do

Climate change poses a challenge to farming systems worldwide. However, existing research suggests that farmers and those providing outreach may have different climate change perspectives, and there is little understanding of how farmers prioritize climate change compared with other aspects of their farming system. To compare how farmers and outreach professionals in northern New England consider climate

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent five narratives of future development used for climate change research. They include quantified projections of socioeconomic variables such as population, income levels, inequalities, and emissions over the twenty-first century. The SSP’s population projections embody explicit, pathway-specific international migration assumptions, which are only implicit

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” (UNFCCC 2015). Designing a global mitigation strategy to support this goal poses formidable challenges. For one, there are trade-offs between the economic costs and the environmental benefits

Floods are among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards. Fluvial flood losses are expected to increase in the future, driven by population and economic growth in flood-prone areas, and exacerbated in many regions by effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Yet, studies assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of fluvial flooding in combination with climate change and socio-economic

Lake water resources are vital in Xinjiang, northwestern China, a mountainous region that depends highly on melting runoff, making it susceptible to climate change. The interannual dynamics of lakes in Xinjiang and the driving mechanism of climate factors are however poorly understood. Here, we used the newly developed monthly water map datasets, the climate dataset from the ERA5 reanalysis, hydrological

With mandates and taxes to mitigate climate change proving politically challenging to implement, some scholars and policy makers have started looking to social norms as a vehicle for large-scale behavioral change. This raises the question of whether formal institutions or organizations are able to influence social norms and behavior. We designed a randomized experiment with a sample of 3627 American

In this paper, we evaluate a single-index polymorphic production function that relates agricultural output to temperature and precipitation. The advantage of this new approach to measuring agricultural vulnerability under climatic change is that a single-index measure of vulnerability can capture a range of climate responses including plateau effects. The approach identifies plateau effects in the

Visual climate indicators have become a popular way to communicate trends in important climate phenomena. Producing accessible visualizations for a general audience is challenging, especially when many are based on graphics designed for scientists, present complex and abstract concepts, and utilize suboptimal design choices. This study tests whether diagnostic visualization guidelines can be used to

Following the Paris Agreement of 2015, most countries have agreed to reduce their carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions according to individually set Nationally Determined Contributions. However, national CO2 emissions are reported by individual countries and cannot be directly measured or verified by third parties. Inherent weaknesses in the reporting methodology may misrepresent, typically an under-reporting

Following the failure of climate governance regimes that sought to impose legally binding treaty-based obligations, the Paris Agreement relies on voluntary actions by individual countries. Yet, there is no guarantee that unilateral policies will lead to a decrease in carbon emissions. Critics worry that voluntary climate measures will be weak and ineffective, and insights from political economy imply

The potential impact of climate change on agriculture has been one of the most discussed topics in the literature on climate change. Although the possible impacts of climate change on crop yields have been widely studied, there remains little quantitative understanding of the heterogeneous economic responses to climate-induced crop yield changes in different economies, particularly at higher levels

Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several

This paper revisits the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and income growth for the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. There has been a lively debate about the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), which postulates the presence of an inverted U-shaped pattern for pollution levels as income increases. Our study proposes a new approach that models the

A high risk of overestimating emission reductions would be detrimental to the credibility of forest mitigation. But high-quality information on uncertainties in measuring emissions from forests is hard to obtain because of frequent shortcomings in uncertainty analyses. This paper aims to gauge what precision is achievable by examining data from several contexts (including data from 18 countries that

There is growing evidence of a range of theoretical and applied Indigenous climate change adaptation strategies, yet analyses of African examples are generally focused at single local spatial scales, with limited description of how they have evolved over time. Drawing from research across three districts in northern Ghana, this study employs a mixed-methods approach and an interpretivist framework

The description of the relationship between temperature (T) and electricity consumption (EC) is key to improving our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios

Understanding how precipitation may change in the future is important for guiding climate change adaptation. Climate models are the primary tools for providing information on future precipitation change, though communicating and interpreting results of different model simulations is challenging. Using an online survey, completed by producers and users of climate model information, we compare and evaluate

Soil Carbon Storage has emerged as a feasible strategy for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, raising important questions regarding whether the general public supports the strategy as a means to address climate change. We analyzed data from a national probability survey of 1222 US adults who reported believing in climate change at least “somewhat” to estimate public support for Soil Carbon

Lake surface warming and thermal responses to climate change have been widely reported, especially in temperate regions. Evidence of reservoir response in low latitudes is still limited. In this study, the vertical profile of water temperature in the Barra Bonita Reservoir (Brazil) is simulated using the one-dimensional General Lake Model (GLM), calibrated, and validated using in-situ data. Water temperature